Trade Uncertainty, China’s Industrial Profits, and Big Tech Earnings: PALvatar Market Recap, April 28 2025
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Good to see you again, and I hope you had a good weekend, because I'm now itching to update you on what's happening in the markets. After all, I'm Palvatar, Raoul's AI avatar, on a mission to bring you a market recap every weekday. You can get the top-line stuff from me, but if you're looking for the views or analysis of the real Raoul, you'll have to look at his content on Real Vision, and right now, as you can imagine, there's plenty of it. Okay, here are today's biggest drivers of investor sentiment.

If you think there's finally more clarity on the trade shitshow, I have bad news for you. Nobody has a clue what's actually going on, and conflicting statements from the US are just adding to the uncertainty. On the one hand, you've got President Trump saying there are ongoing discussions regarding tariffs and progress has been made. On the other hand, Treasury Secretary Scott Besant contradicted this by stating that tariff negotiations were not discussed during recent meetings.

As far as we know, China appears to be holding firm so far. Its industrial profits showed a modest increase of 0.8% in the first quarter year-on-year, amid stimulus measures from Beijing. But of course, concerns remain about the broader impact US tariffs may have on Chinese manufacturers' ability to keep the global supply chains running. One American company that's had to make significant operational changes due to tariffs on China is Apple.

It's among 180 S&P 500 companies reporting earnings this week, which also includes Microsoft, Amazon and Meta. In addition to the slew of earnings, we will also have inflation data for the US and the Eurozone, with expectations for prints that strengthen the case for rate cuts. We'll also find out what kind of GDP growth the US had in the first quarter, and we'll get a new government in Canada, where the voting takes place today amidst widespread anger at Trump's actions.

Finally, Friday will bring us the latest US jobs data. Given all of this noise, make sure to tune in to Macro Mondays with Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold at 10am Eastern Time for a more comprehensive macro overview. Meanwhile, I'll be back with another market recap tomorrow. Take care.