Trading the Markets (April 16)
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Hi, everyone. I'm Raoul Pal, the CEO and co-founder of Real Vision. Here at Real Vision, we're committed to give you the best knowledge, tools, and network to help you succeed in your financial future. If you're enjoying this podcast, please take a moment to give it a five-star rating. It truly helps us continue to bring top-tier content. Thank you so much.

Happy Wednesday, everyone, and welcome back to episode five of Trading the Markets. I'm Bijan Maleki, and I'm joined by Chris Bullock. This is the show where we talk about our weekly trade ideas, what we're looking at, what's caught our attention, what we're interested in. So just keep in mind, these are not financial advice recommendations, but ones that might be interesting to you to check out yourself.

And with that, you know, we've got a pretty interesting week in the markets already. And before I pass it off to Chris, I just want to let you all know, if you have any questions that you want us to take live, just drop it in the chat area.

the live comments, the comment section on our platform. You can drop it in our Twitter comment section, or you can just drop them in Discord and we'll take what we can live on air. That's what we do here on this show. So, Chris, how are you doing? How's the week been for you so far? Week's been good. Week's been good. Lots of interesting price action. But the bottom line is uncertainty reigns supreme still. It's just...

Nothing wants to show its hand either way, you know, so we're just kind of meandering sideways, but stuff's starting to point a little bit to the downside, which...

I don't know. I don't know if I want to put much weight onto it or not, but I've got some fun ways to look at the market today and interpret it with an indicator that I don't typically talk about. So we'll get into that here in a little bit. Yeah, no, I'm sure people are definitely looking forward to that, kind of seeing your overview of the market. So why don't we just jump right into that, see what's got your attention, what you're looking at, and see kind of your market overview before we get started on some specific trades. So yeah, let's...

I want to talk about the Ichimoku cloud today because I'm on a bit of a kick with it. Every couple months, I pull it up and just kind of dig in and go through every chart in my watch list with it. I probably should do that more often because half the time I do that, I'm like, ah, dang, there was some good signals here that I wish I would have been paying closer attention to. I need to have this up more often. So I've kind of vowed to keep this tab open in my trading view and visit it more frequently because there's definitely some good signals to be had here.

And I just want to start with Bitcoin. Well, actually, before, let me back up. Let me just do a brief, I mean, this is going to be the most brief 10-second overview of what this indicator even is, because I know it's a little bit different than maybe some of the ones you're used to. But in its essence, in a nutshell, you can think of these lines, all these lines as moving averages, basically. And so ultimately, we want to see...

You know, all of the moving averages in the right order and prices above all the moving averages, that would constitute an uptrend, basically. And right now, all the moving averages are essentially in the wrong order. They're all upside down. They're all reversed and they're all in a downtrend. And most of them are acting as resistance, you know, across the board with with a handful of exceptions here and there. So, yeah, I just want to quickly touch on Bitcoin here.

It's basically broken above one of the moving averages, and it's seeing resistance against the second one. And then we've got the cloud here that we ultimately needed to get above. Now, the first thing we're going to want to see is this blue moving average actually flip and cross over above the red one. So the blue moving average is called a conversion line. The red one is called a baseline. We need to see that flip. So that's...

you know, step number one. Step number two, we need to see price ultimately get above this red cloud and to the upside. And we're not seeing that. In fact, we're seeing a lot more, again, resistance than we are support across the board on many, many of these assets. So I kind of wanted to just quickly go down a list and show you, you know, what I'm seeing here. But, you know, basically Bitcoin,

Pretty ugly. ETH, much uglier. It's below all of its lines and heavily, heavily resisted. Solana actually looks okay, but Solana was more oversold, I think, than a lot of these. So it's having a nice bounce here, but it's got a lot more work to do to catch up to begin with. SWE is another really popular one that we talk about a lot. Kind of the same thing. It got rejected off of its conversion line. XRP is another one that comes up a lot.

XRP looks a little bit better because it wasn't as bad off to begin with. But the one that's, again, standing out that is just getting all the attention for weeks and weeks now is Fartcoin. And, you know, not only is it above both, but it has had this sort of crossover that we're looking for. So it's got a crossover and it's working its way up into the cloud. And the good thing about this is, you know, it's pushed up into it now three or four or five times.

Typically, once this happens and it can flip this bottom line to support, the top tends to act a bit

as a bit of a magnet and you can often expect it to run to the upside or the opposite end of the cloud relatively quickly, more often than not. Not every time, it's not like a predictor, but more often than not, you'll see it run up. So hopefully if it can close here, maybe get above this wick from the other day, we've got $1.44, $1.50 in the cards potentially on the short term if the strength can continue.

Conversely, if it gets rejected here, you know, we might be looking at a trip back down to back down to the 65, 70 cent level to kind of do a bit of a breather, catch its breath before resuming the uptrend. Another one is SPX that I touch on quite a bit.

It's almost had its crossover, so that's cool, but it kind of got rejected here and it needs to get back above. But it's right on the line and it's very close to having a crossover too. So it's in the conversation, but not quite there, not quite as strong. So yeah, I went through all my whole list of majors and memes and everything. There were a couple others that I'll touch on briefly that stood out that were, or actually, no, I'll come back to that. Hi, Raoul here.

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I do have a question for you, actually, about that really quickly. For those of you that are interested in the Ichimoku cloud and you want to dive more into that, we actually have an episode in our Crypto Academy from Carpe Noctem where he explains how to use that. So if you're interested, definitely check that out. I have a question for you, though, on your fart coin chart. So you mentioned that...

the rejection level, right? So if it gets, if it does get rejected and it goes back down to that, like 66, 65 cent level, are you going to be looking to add more to your bag there? Are you, are you going to wait and see how it, how it does off of that, that level?

I personally would not because I would still be well in profit at that level, even if it did come back down. And I'm pretty, pretty well fully allocated at the moment. So to me, that would just be, you know, again, catching its breath in a larger uptrend. But if you are in a position to and you've got dry powder or you're looking to get an allocation, absolutely wait for that. And if you get that level, I think that's a good buy level.

I wanted to kind of piggyback on what you said about the Academy show. I actually used that tutorial because the default settings for the Ichimoku cloud are a little bit different. They're more centered towards TradFi and the schedule that stocks trade on and the level of volatility that stocks trade on. And so he actually went in and modified his settings to kind of

be to reflect the way the crypto market works a little bit better. And so I use his settings. That's what I've dialed in my Ichimoku cloud settings to based on his his recommendations. So I do encourage everyone to go watch that because it is a little bit different than the default settings. And I think it does make a big difference, especially if you're using it to follow crypto specifically. So so, yeah, I recommend that.

Yeah, absolutely. Good shout out. Shout out to Carpe Noctem as well there. All right, Chris. So what have we got this week in terms of trades and just ideas? I know that you wanted to talk about the crypto dashboard again as well, because that's really helped you find some things just specifically.

It's a brand new dashboard from Jamie Coots. So actually, for those of you that are pro members, Jamie did an AMA on Monday where he actually walked through his dashboard again and talked about some of the updates that are coming that he's going to be adding to that dashboard. So definitely check that out if you are a pro member. And if you're not, you know what? Take an upgrade and check that out because that crypto dashboard is going to it's going to pay itself off for you as well. So.

And there's some amazing upgrades coming to it on the way, too, that are in development that will make it 10 times better than it is already. So, yeah. So, yeah, with that said, so looking at the dashboard briefly, I wanted to first, I've touched on this, I think, a couple weeks ago, but I like to start out with the equal weight marketer.

market cap or market cap weight versus equal weight, because we know when equal weight starts outpacing market cap weight, that that means alts are basically running and outpacing the higher cap like the Bitcoin. And right now we're not really seeing that yet. Even on the one day it's down

On the seven day, you know, it's up 10%, but it's still not up as much as the market cap weight. And then the 30 day, it's well down, 90 day, well down and so on and so forth. So this tells us that it is not alt season yet and that Bitcoin dominance continues to reign supreme, basically. And, you know, it's going to keep going, basically, I think. But outside of that, what I what I like to do is dig down into these sections down here and see sort of what sectors within the crypto space are outperforming the most.

and then kind of dig in and see what sort of subsectors within that are outperforming. And, uh, the, you know, just looking at the seven day here and then the 30 day, basically digital currencies are, are, are typically doing the best and, and historically have been even, you know, on the year on a, on a sort of rotating year yearly basis. So I dig into here and then we can see within this, uh,

meme coins, again, on a seven-day basis, are leading the pack. And so dig into here once again, and you can sort it by daily, you can sort it by weekly, but once again, fart coin basically just kind of crushing everything across the board. And so this, of course, this justifies why it keeps coming up in our conversations, but

But one of the ones that sort of caught my eye that I sort of totally flown under the radar, never even heard of it until this morning. And I think mainly because it operates on Binance Smart Chain, which is predominantly accessed via the Asian market. And so us being American, Western, we don't typically get exposure to some of these other memes like that. But I went and looked at the chart and it's pretty interesting. So I wanted to pull up the chart briefly, briefly.

because I was like, wow, what is this cheems? I never, you know, like I said, I've never even, never even heard of it. Um, so I'm like, well, let's look at the Ichimoku. And I'm like, well, what do you know? Even since, uh, you know, the beginning of the year when everything has mostly been down on the year, like well down, even some, some memes down 90 plus percent. Um, it's actually slightly up on the year overall and it's well above, you know, it's, it's green cloud, which is pretty noteworthy. Um,

Now, I don't know much about this. Again, it's a small meme. It's not even in the top 100. It's like 136 or something market cap. But it's hanging along, hanging on. All of its moving averages are basically in the correct order, the blue, red, and then green, red. So interesting observation there. Another one that caught my eye through that was this NPC token.

Which also structurally looks a little bit better than most. Granted, it had a massive 90 plus percent drop, you know, from the beginning of the year, but it had a bullish crossover and it's worked its way up into the cloud too. So it could be looking at a bit of a run here. It's had a stronger bounce out of the lows, I think.

than most assets that we've seen. So to me, that was a noteworthy one too. And that one came up on our Monday show, Bijan 2, and I had noticed it then. But yeah, so those are a couple that have caught my eye through this crypto dashboard that I was looking at. Oh, that's great. So...

And cheems, that's definitely a new one for sure. If anyone here watching has a bag of cheems, throw that in the comment. Don't let us know how much you have, but I'd be curious to know how many of our people watching actually have known about that before. So that's a great spot from Jamie's dashboard. What about... So I know offline, we were talking about Radium a little bit as well because they're in the news recently with...

with a competitor to pump.fun and kind of their own token launchpad. So what have you got for us, Radium-wise? Yeah, yeah, so exactly. So today they announced, earlier today, the product is called Launch Lab.

And it is a literally a direct competitor to Pump.Fun. It's a platform where you can basically launch your own tokens. It has the same sort of bonding curve, you know, dynamics and things like that it uses. But it also aims to improve on some of the deficiencies that Pump.Fun has and be, you know, overall a better product.

And so it's going to be real interesting to see how that plays out. But the market responded nicely to it. It's up 16% on the day. At one point it was up, you know, as high as around 20%. And it seems to be, you know, a positive announcement for them. I'm super curious to see how it plays out because, you know, Radium is definitely a larger overall project and product than what Pumped.Fun is. And so for them to kind of take back that, that,

I guess, market share from Pump.Fun and put it right back into Radium, you know, it's going to be interesting. And we know that Radium, I think I would argue was...

a fair bit oversold more so than a lot of these other tokens, you know, in the correction. And so there's a, there's a potential for it to bounce quite a bit higher as a result of this. So it could, you know, claw back a lot of this and, you know, get some sort of outsized price action to the upside as a result of being as oversold as it was. And then if we look at it just from like the Ichimoku standpoint let's there, there's,

I do want, it's not awesome, but it's a step in the right direction. You can see because it's two moving averages, its conversion line and baseline were, again, very, way, way deviated far apart, again, because of it being tremendously oversold compared to a lot of other assets.

So it's got a lot more technical ground to make up to sort of get back to a, you know, a bullish crossover on these moving averages. But we can see, at least at the very least, it's well above its conversion line and has a lot of momentum and has bounced significantly from the bottom.

So, a good step in the right direction for Radium. And it's, you know, I think one to keep a close eye on because in the Solanus ecosystem, it's, you know, absolutely one of the biggest players. And so it stands to benefit, particularly if memes really, really kind of come back online, which we're seeing signs of that. You know, we're seeing, I feel like the meme sector is,

Yeah, yes, it died or it didn't. Maybe it didn't die, but it's been sort of hiding below the surface, you know, and just kind of waiting to come back in favor. Yes, some memes corrected a huge amount, but other memes didn't. And I think that we're going to see, you know, if sort of the psyche turns back around to the meme sector, we're going to see the likes of Radium and even Solana itself die.

run uh i think really hard and i think just quickly too we're seeing that with solana too it's actually having a nice bounce off the bottom i think as a product even of just a fart coin could be driving a lot of this for that matter you know because there's a lot of tension coming back and i i'll typically i'll notice like i know spx trades uh on both uh ethereum and solana

And I'll notice, you can't really see it on my watch list here, but typically I'll see the Solana blockchain version of SPX generally doing a little bit better overall, you know, having a little bit more trading volume as of late. And so we're seeing activity coming back into the Solana ecosystem through memes and even through AI a little bit. And I think that that trend is going to continue. Yeah, absolutely. I think it's, I mean...

It's been pretty clear so far that Solana is where people prefer to make their meme purchases, whether it's because it's cheaper, maybe faster, whatever it is. It's definitely the leader on the memes space. But a quick note about Radium. I do love that they are competing in the space. And I think ultimately that's going to be beneficial to us, the end user who's using these platforms, right?

because we're just going to get a better user experience. And I think competition just breeds that within it. Another thing too, Radium has that track record, right? They were around last cycle with Solana. So that's another interesting thing that Radium's kind of, as you noted, Chris, taking back the market share that they lost. So I do like that. So my trade for this week, I am going, I've mentioned this a few times. You guys are probably going to start thinking I'm like a maxi, but I want to talk about Deep.

And I want to highlight Jacob Combs trade from April 4th that he input on the platform here. He's up 41.5% on his deep trade. He has an entry price of just under $0.06.

And take profit at $1, stop loss at $0.04. His reason why buying the dip. And that's kind of what I've mentioned the past couple of weeks on these trading episodes here that I am a big fan of. If you are, if you have that conviction, if you've done your research, why not buy the dip on these coins like that, right? I think deep is a very interesting term.

coin right within the SWE ecosystem. A lot of us are big believers in SWE having a nice come up in this cycle, if you will. And deep as a beta, the liquidity layer on deep should outperform what SWE does on a percentage basis just because it has that smaller market cap. So I am a big believer in deep just because I'm a big believer in SWE. So I think SWE will end up running and

And just as a default, deep is going to run with it. So that's that's my idea. Want to give a shout out to Jacob as well, who had a similar idea. Great minds think like Jacob and he's up 41 and a half percent on that trade so far. Nice. I'm going to pull it up on the the Seacham Okra indicator and sort of see what it's looking like.

Oh, that's, yeah, yeah. So, well, it's had a nice, I mean, it definitely, it had a huge wick up, as we can see, yeah.

but it's come back down to earth a little bit. But again, nice bounce above its conversion line, you know, and we can see there's a drastic uptick on the conversion line. It actually came all the way up to the baseline and sort of got rejected, but definitely nice bounce from the bottom. I'd really like to see it continue that momentum, but we know that, like you said, I think that there's definitely a case to be made for deep, for upside on deep to continue. But yeah, technically it's, it's,

it's above average, I would say a little bit, you know, in terms of coming off the lows across the board. So, so yeah.

Good call. Yeah, let's see if it keeps running. SWE has a base camp coming up in Dubai soon for, what is it? Is that token 2049? Yeah, so they're going to, hopefully some cool information comes out of there. Some, you know, bullish narratives come out of that base camp. But SWE's building, they're doing a lot on the building side of things. So definitely looking forward to what they've got going forward. Nice.

Awesome. Looks like we don't have any questions yet. Chris, did you have any other trades that caught your attention this week?

No. It's still tough right now, right? It is tough. And I mean, that's worth commenting on on its own. I've probably spent a good 90 minutes in the lead up to this show scouring the market, looking at every index I could find. I go on CoinMarketCap, I go on the RV Crypto dashboard to just sort of see what is outperforming on an aggregate basis. And it's

It's so hard to pick anything. Like if you look at the alt season index on CoinMarketCap, there's maybe 15 assets that have outperformed Bitcoin in the last 90 days. And most of them, most of them are just kind of

not even, you know, they're brand new and they just had a big pump and they've gone down or gone sideways since then. There's a handful of exchange tokens. There's the gold pegs that, you know, the gold pegs are still trucking along because gold is still doing well. So that it's like stuff like that. That's what's outpacing Bitcoin right now is just the stuff that really doesn't move a ton in general anyway, the stuff that's maybe a little bit less volatile than even Bitcoin. And so that's why it's sort of outpacing Bitcoin over the last 90 days. But there's not much to pick from. I mean, it is just

it, like I said, it's a very timid market right now. It's, you know, it's just uncertainty reigns supreme and it's, uh, you know, just kind of, we just got to kind of sit and wait it out, you know, maybe be, have some exposure to gold, have some, have some, uh, now's the time to sort of be a little bit de-risked and, and be looking to buy dips and things like that. But we're not there yet. And we're technically, we have, uh, a lot of work to do really to reestablish these uptrends on weekly timeframes. And, uh,

It's you know, we're not even close, honestly. Like so we're it's it's still tenuous. And so we need to see some some steps in the right direction because it could just as easily leg back down or double bottom again. Bitcoin could double bottom again before we ultimately run up. Now, we know the macro is good from everything that we keep hearing from everybody, especially in the the the macro experts within the Real Vision community and within the Real Vision team.

So we know that like good things are coming, but you know, it's a, it's a process. Bottoming is a process as they say, and it, we're still in it. And so we're still in it until we're not basically. Yeah, no, absolutely. And it,

We could very well like this could just be like an extended cycle. So it might just be taking longer for things to happen. I also saw I think it was a comment or tweet. I can't remember. I saw someone mentioned that Coinbase put out in their newsletter that they seem to think we're in a micro bear market right now. So that was that was an interesting piece of information.

coming at it. I guess you, you, you can't really argue with it based on, uh, all the prices that we've been seeing, how hard it is to find some decent runners right now. Absolutely. And, and even on, yeah, if you look at it, if you zoom out to like a monthly timeframe, even we're right on the, the basically the longer term monthly trend line for this four-year cycle with Bitcoin. And, um, it's right there, you know? So, and even, uh, if you look at some on-chain metrics, there's definitely, uh,

on-chain metrics for Bitcoin and in particular that do say, yeah, bear market, Bitcoin bear market all the way. Now, granted, that's on-chain. It doesn't factor in any sort of external macro anything or anything financial, really. It's strictly just reflecting on-chain activity of Bitcoin, nor does it reflect, you know,

like ETFs, because ETFs have actually a very small on-chain footprint compared to what they used to. So the data is a little bit skewed, but nevertheless, it is indicating a bear market in the moment. So, yeah. Yeah, I guess time will tell. So that's going to do it for us today, guys. Just a note, if you have any questions that you didn't get to ask today, join our Discord and you can ask them anytime you want. We have plenty of people that dive into the charts that are happy to answer your questions or...

or give some of their own suggestions and kind of alpha, if you will. So yeah, definitely join our discord and take part in the conversation until then. We'll see you guys next week. And also you want to join our discord to tune into our longer show on Mondays that we host live in the discord. And we literally just take your questions for like an hour.

hour just diving into every chart that you guys want us to look at and chris kind of sees what he he can get from the chart and uh and we'll take it from there so yeah join us and uh take part in the conversation and the alpha and let's all win together guys until then see you guys next week thanks for tuning in

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