Trading the Markets: June 4, 2025
42:56 Share

This episode is brought to you by LifeLock. Between two-factor authentication, strong passwords, and a VPN, you try to be in control of how your info is protected. But many other places also have it, and they might not be as careful. That's why LifeLock monitors hundreds of millions of data points a second for threats. If your identity is stolen, they'll fix it, guaranteed, or your money back. Save up to 40% your first year. Visit LifeLock.com slash podcast for 40% off. Terms apply.

Hi, everyone. I'm Raoul Pal, the CEO and co-founder of Real Vision. Here at Real Vision, we're committed to give you the best knowledge, tools, and network to help you succeed in your financial future. If you're enjoying this podcast, please take a moment to give it a five-star rating. It truly helps us continue to bring top-tier content. Thank you so much.

Happy Wednesday, everyone, and welcome back to another episode of Trading the Markets. I'm Bijan Maleki, and of course, I'm joined by Chris Bullock, a.k.a. BlastoPlast. I want to thank Nico for stepping in last week and hosting. We didn't miss a beat. I was moving, and I'm back.

I'm living in my parents' house right now, staying true to the culture of that degen trading in their parents' basement with meme coins. So that's me. That's my life right now. You know, hey, we're in the final stretch here in the banana zone, hopefully. Right. So we got it. We got to get that going. I just want to call your your attention to a new Jamie Coots video that just dropped cycle modeling and risk forecasting.

framework. Basically, those videos act like a supplement to his May reports. So I think it's also a great resource to use in tandem with our weekly trading shows. So if you're an RV Pro member, go and check that out. Chris has his crypto portfolio update dropping next week as well. But you can also check out Joe Bland's macro portfolio coming this week. So set your reminders for that.

You'll need to be an RV Connect member to get access. So if you're not already, make sure you upgrade so you can get access to that. Because with RV Connect, you don't just get Chris's amazing and detailed reports in our weekly trading show. You'll also get those detailed macro reports and videos from Joe Bland. You get full access to trade ideas and you get access to the Crypto Academy. And I know Chris has a few sessions in there.

And, you know, there's a famous saying, you know, about the the student becoming the teacher. So you can learn from Chris. Maybe you can trade better than him and T.A. better. And we'll see how that goes. Also, just want to have a quick reminder as well. We discuss this all day, every day in our discourse. So if you're not a member, you can always join stress test your ideas, chat with your fellow members, etc.

And just, you know, join the vibes in Discord. And if you have any questions for us this week, you can always drop them in the chats here on X or on the platform. And we'll get to as many as we can. And lastly, we have another RV meetup coming to you guys in London again on June 18th. So if you're in the area or you need a reason to be in the UK, we hope to see you there. You can register at realvision.com.

slash meetups again that's realvision.com meetups so you can register for our event and check out our events calendar anyway uh let's get into the week chris how are you doing what's on your mind today hi raul here

Listen, I think we've got until 2030 before the economic singularity arrives. Now, it might not be the exact date, but it's around then. So we have about six years to figure out how to unfuck our future. I've put together a report to help you called Prepare for 2030. It's going to help you take the first steps in that journey to make sure you're secure past 2030. So just click on the link below and start your journey now.

I am doing great. I wanted to actually piggyback on something you just said about the meetups. It's not quite, I don't know if it's officially on the schedule yet and maybe I shouldn't be announcing it, but there's going to be one in Vancouver, October,

in August in around the 15th or 16th, which I am going to, which myself and Blasto's girlfriend will be attending in Vancouver. So I hope to see anybody that wants to go to that. That's going to be a lot of fun. It will also be my 50th birthday on the 15th that weekend. So should be a good time. All right. A birthday party slash meetup for Blasto Plus. I love it.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. I'm looking forward to it. I can't wait. We got our tickets already this weekend. And so I'm stoked for that. I haven't been to Vancouver either, so I'm looking forward to it.

I wanted to also quickly touch on the reports that you mentioned. Jamie's last two reports, I mean, all of his reports are good, but his last two were just fire. Like, they were so good with this new risk modeling profile that he's come up with and just so in-depth. And the stuff that he does with the data is just, I mean, again, it's above and beyond anything that I've seen from anybody in this space. And

We're so grateful to have him. And I really liked Joe's report too. I'm not deep in the weeds with TradFi and I thought his report was outstanding. And it really, like, as soon as I read this, I was like, I can see myself...

you know, leveraging this information, you know, maybe later in the cycle or next year or something when I want to kind of branch out of crypto a bit, his reports are going to be super, super helpful in that scenario. And I look forward to seeing those evolve. I thought that that was a really welcome addition to the all of the content that we have. We didn't really have anything that what he's bringing to the table and it was unique and and, you know, you know,

Props to Joe for that. So it was good stuff. And I'd be remiss if I didn't say that that also was born from community feedback. So like we listened to what a lot of you say, and that's what a lot of you wanted. You love that crypto aspect of what we're providing. But I think we were lacking a little bit more on a macro side of things. And that's what Joe Bland brings to the table. So keep your recommendations and feedback coming. We'd love to hear it. Yeah, yeah.

So, yeah, let's let's get on to Bitcoin here. Let's or let's start with Bitcoin rather. So we've been you know, we've been in a correction, as we know, for what, a little over a week now.

And the question is, is the bottom in? That's kind of what we're all waiting for. Is the bottom in? Do we have another leg down? Are we going to reverse? Have we corrected enough? And so let's kind of look at some charts here and sort of see what I see. Right now, what I'm looking at is the first question. Has Bitcoin corrected enough? If I'm not mistaken, it ultimately went down about 8.5%, give or take. So...

Yes, there's been a couple other corrections in this current four year cycle that we're in that were actually slightly shallow or maybe one was around nine percent. One was around eight percent. So it wouldn't be unprecedented for this to have been a big enough correction. You could ask yourself, has sentiment corrected enough? Like usually when you you know, when we come into these corrections that we have right now, you want to see sentiment kind of get better.

flushed out because what happens is we get these big, you know, overexcited, overexuberant rallies where, you know, like the fear and greed index goes to like 70 plus, you know, and we're like, ah, this is great, but we can't sustain a 70 plus fear and greed. You know, it just, it doesn't work that way. And so usually when you get these corrections, you want to see sentiment get reset back down into like, say the fifties or forties even, and kind of freak everybody out and kind of get reset so that you have enough, so

sort of fuel to sustain another big rally. And we didn't quite get that. We've got a sentiment flush. I want to say it's back down in like the 60s. So it's still a little bit on the greed side of things. It's not quite, you know, neutral even. And so...

That's never awesome. But also, you know, it is what it is. And if this is to be the next big phase of the banana zone, then it'll be okay. It's fine. Now, so that leads us to is the bottom in?

Well, there's a couple good things that I'm seeing here. And I'm looking at this trading alpha indicator, which I use a lot and is great. And it's showing us that it has basically managed to hold this support level through this entire correction. I mean, it did wick down briefly and came right back up. And now we've got the shaded area here. And the shaded area tells us that there's...

that the Bollinger Bands are starting to kind of come together or squeeze. And this is what we refer to as a volatility squeeze, meaning there hasn't been a lot of price action, you know, since the sideways structure started. And so now it's starting to get squeezed. And typically when you get a volatility squeeze, you have a breakout. Like if you look at these other couple last, like we had one here, a volatility squeeze. I know this broke out to the downside. We had another one here. This one broke out to the upside.

This volatility squeeze doesn't tell you which way price is going to break out. It just tells you that typically when you have a period of low volatility, you often get a period of high volatility breaking out from it is effectively what it's saying. So this could go either way. But I feel like the longer it goes sideways like this and the longer it holds this support level, you know, the odds increase that the breakout will be to the upside.

And so that's kind of what I'm looking at here. And then if we go over to this other indicator, this other chart, rather, same thing. We're still looking at Bitcoin here, but just with moving averages. Right now, we're basically, again, in the same support cluster that we've been holding

And we're really just waiting for Bitcoin, I think, to get back above these two moving averages, this 10 and 20 day moving average. And as soon as they do that, that's going to tell us that, yes, in fact, the bottom is in. Now, right now, we're a bit in kind of no man's land. We're sort of between support and resistance in terms of these moving averages and this this horizontal support level. So we're really just waiting for the market to kind of show its hand and tell us which which way things are going. And we can't really do anything until we get that signal.

Now, if we don't get the signal to the upside, what does that look to the downside? What does that look like? So the next couple levels I'm looking at are

Well, the next big sort of horizontal support level is this previous structure we had down here in like the mid 90s, you know, where it topped out around 96 and it got down as low as 93, 93.5. I don't think we're going to get all the way down to here. To me, that's a bit of a long shot, but it's still sort of within reason. And even if it did happen, it wouldn't necessarily like break the longer term structure or anything like that. Like it really would be fine.

Nobody's going to want to see that, obviously, but it would absolutely serve to flush out sentiment, you know, for sure. This would flush sentiment back into the 30s and 40s, and that would be a nice, healthy reset, honestly. But if it doesn't get back to this, the next level I'm looking at is kind of this even 100,000 level, which is like the even sort of nice psychological round number level. Humans are funny like that. They like to buy at round numbers. And so, you know, you could very well see a bounce just at 100K if it does get down to this low.

Just because, again, that's humans for you. So that's the number I'm kind of looking at. If we break this existing structure, first I'll look at 100,000. If we do lose it, which we could, then the next structure that I'm looking at is around 96%.

And if we kind of zoom out, you can see what I'm saying by when I say it wouldn't actually break anything. Because just looking at the longer term, like the longer term four-year cycle trend that we've been on starting from back in 2023, January 23, we're still quite a ways above this existing sort of long-term trend line that we've been holding. And we did the April lows when we broke out from that was the previous touch we had to this trend line.

And meanwhile, we've got the 20 week moving average, which is effectively this bull market support band running down through here. And we're still quite a ways above that.

If you look at this, we're way above the trend line. We're way above the bull market support band. So even a correction down to 95 wouldn't even get us back anywhere near this trend line. So that's what I mean when I say everything would be fine structurally if we were to come down that low. And so I'm really not worried about that if it did happen, even though I don't necessarily think it will, or maybe it's not my base case, you could say. So...

That's where we're at with Bitcoin. Overall, I think things are looking good. I do think that there's a 50-50 chance, even better maybe, that the bottom actually is in. And we do start a new basically a 60-day cycle rally out of here sometime this week. But in the meantime, we're just kind of stuck and we'll just have to wait and see how it plays out.

Yeah, I mean, you touched on this on Monday as well. Like, you know, if we break down under 100, we're okay, guys. Like, you know, that mid-90s is still nice support. It's going to flush us out. And I think that'll just provide great buying opportunities. I know crypto Twitter is going to go crazy if we do go below 100, but that is your guys' opportunity. So just keep that in mind. The world's not falling just yet there. Chris, you had an interesting chart as well showing –

altcoins because you know we we think we've always we're always talking about this alt season coming and that just taking us to the moon and seeing all these exponential gains but um this uh the the altcoin chart performance that you have is really just uh really kind of puts things into perspective about where we currently are right now you want to uh kind of explain what you're seeing on that chart

Yeah, so this is on CoinMarketCap. They have like an altcoin index or an altseason index. And this basically shows the number of tokens that are outperforming Bitcoin on like a rolling 90-day basis. And right now in this moment, there's only 22 altcoins that have done so.

And it's funny, if you look at these, there's a lot of really common names that you hear. You hear Fartcoin a lot. You hear SPX. You hear Hype. You hear Virtual. They're all right up at the top here. A few others that kind of, you know, Aave has been talked about. Tao gets talked about a fair bit. Even ETH actually, surprisingly, has outpaced Bitcoin over the last 90 days, which you haven't been able to say too many times in the last few years.

So that was nice to see. But the thing with this list, one, it very much speaks to the fact that Bitcoin remains supremely dominant because like how many, I think this is,

Top 100. OK, so this is just out of the top 100. Now, we know there's literally thousands of other crypto assets. You can't really factor those in so much because they have such tiny market caps that they can swing wildly. And, you know, any on any given moment, any one of them could outpace Bitcoin on a short term. But that doesn't mean they're necessarily good investments. So you kind of want to stick to like the top 100.

And even so, you know, less than a quarter of them are outpacing Bitcoin. And even within that, I think there's some nuance that I want to speak to, because like you have to keep in mind, well, like ETH is a perfect example. Yes, ETH has outpaced Bitcoin over the last 90 days. And so if you looked at that just in black and white terms, you would think, oh, well,

ETH is probably a good investment. Like maybe I need to be in ETH right now. But if you kind of dig a little bit deeper, you know, and you go to this chart here, you'll see that ETH, in fact, has been in a long, long-term downtrend against Bitcoin for the last four years. So yes, it's outpasted in the last 90 days, but there's a fair number of those assets on that list I just showed where maybe this is kind of what you're seeing. It's in a very long-term downtrend, but maybe over the last 90 days, it had a big spike

and kind of outperformed it in a shorter term. Now, that's not all of them, but you have to dig into the chart actually and kind of double check those numbers and make sure that one of those assets that you might be looking to buy isn't just in a long-term downtrend with a more short-term spike. So-

And it's good to look at this as a reference because it does give you a good perspective on just, again, how dominant Bitcoin is. And there are some here that are absolutely worth holding that have been outpacing Bitcoin on a much longer term. But, you know, the point is,

Bitcoin is good. There's nothing wrong with holding Bitcoin. And Bitcoin is probably going to do better than most. You know what's not in this list, in this top 20 here, is the likes of Solana or SWE or a lot of other big, large assets that many of us talk about, that many of us are holding for the long term. They're not here. So I think that's something that's worth paying attention to. So yeah, yeah.

Yeah, that's definitely an interesting chart to see because, you know, we just get caught up so much in these alts. I think, and the theme that kind of occurred on our Monday show too is I think that

Listen, if you want to have a relatively stress-free, I put that in quotes because we're in crypto, right? Just buy Bitcoin, right? And just set it and forget it. And you won't have to worry about monitoring it every day, worrying about these crazy swings because in the long run, you know you're going to be up, right? Now, if you want to dive into the weeds and really focus on outperforming Bitcoin, well, then that's where you want to start diving into these meme coins or I mean altcoins. But I also think it's important to know is

It needs to outperform Bitcoin significantly, I think, for it to be worth the stress and the risk of holding that alt. Because for something like, you know, 5% to 10% outperformance of Bitcoin, yeah, you're outperforming Bitcoin. But is it worth all the hassle and time that you're putting into it just to get such a minimal gain where you could have just held the larger asset and just enjoyed your life and touched some grass? So I think that's something to consider when you're thinking about your portfolio. Yeah.

You know, it's funny. I actually touched on that. I posted a big post in the discord just a little bit ago before the show. And, and it was kind of speaking to just that, like you have to kind of remember now, obviously this is anecdotal, but like,

Probably nine out of 10 people that try to outpace Bitcoin end up doing worse than if they just held Bitcoin. And I know a lot of people come into crypto thinking, oh, yeah, OK, there's Bitcoin and it's cool, but it's only going to what if it's probably only going to do what a two or three X or four X, you know, from here. That's boring. That's stupid. I don't want that. I want the big I want the gains. I want the 10 X.

Well, it's fine to want the 10x. You can want the 10x all you want. But in order to get that 10x, you actually have to work for it. You have to do better than Bitcoin. And that's far easier said than done. It's, you know, you can want the 10x all day long, but...

You have to execute, you know, and it's you have to go way out the risk curve and it's risky out there. I mean, Bitcoin itself, like you said, is already very risky. And so you have to be in a position to be able to be looking at charts. You have to be very tactful. You have to you have to know what you're looking for. You know, from a from an analytics perspective, you have to have the time.

to be able to sit in front of these charts and stare at them and know what's going on and, and be in a position to actually click the buy and sell button in the right times and places. And if, you know, if that's not your thing, if you don't have, I mean, maybe you have the want, but you need the actual time. Like if you've got a full-time day job and you only look at charts, maybe once a day for 10 minutes, you're probably not positioning yourself to outpace Bitcoin, no matter how much you might want to, you know, you can't just like buy, you know,

you know, whatever deep and, and, uh, you know, lo-fi or whatever, and just set it and forget it and go, well, I'm, you know, I'm good. I got my 10 X. I'm an outpace Bitcoin. It doesn't, it doesn't work that way. You know, like it's, it's a far more active process to actually be able to achieve that. And if you don't think that you can, or you don't think that you are, you know, just have the resources or the time to be able to do that, there's nothing wrong with just holding Bitcoin. Like just,

just kind of go with your strength, you know, and like you're, you're far better off going with their strength and succeeding than going with your weakness and failing, you know? And so, um,

Yeah. Yeah. And if you heard all of that and you said, you know what, I still want to outperform Bitcoin and I still want to chase generational wealth. Well, guys, we do have some nice portfolios, our crypto portfolio. We have Joe Bland's portfolio, Jamie Coots' portfolio, Raoul's portfolio. So you guys can, you know, play along with those and, you know, just update your portfolio as those updates come and you'll probably do really well, too. So that's another thing to keep in mind.

You will do well, but I want to just say what you will do well, but just know that like we, none of us being the experts, Joe, myself, Raul, Julian, any, we don't have a crystal ball either, you know, like,

We've got experience. We've got some expertise in terms of analytics and knowledge of macro and cycles and crypto and everything. But we can refine the probabilities to ensure greater odds of success. But again, we...

Anything can happen. I mean, anything can happen. Great, great point. Great little caveat there, Chris. So I know you wanted to, you touched on ETH a little bit here as you were going through all coins. I know you wanted to talk about the ETH chart, but I want to tie that up

in with a question that we got from Miles. Hi, Chris. Should I swap my XRP or TAU for ETH or keep the faith a little bit longer? So why don't we dive into that ETH chart and maybe see what we can tell Miles here. Well, so...

Actually, here's ETH. Let me kind of first zoom out and let's look at ETH on a zoomed out perspective for just a second. So this is ETH-USD pair. This was way back at sort of the cycle lows back in 2022. ETH ran a decent, it was in a nice uptrend against USD for most of the cycle. I mean, really until...

this year, honestly, it was in a solid uptrend. Now, granted, it didn't really set any higher highs once it peaked initially in early 2024, but it was setting higher lows. And it was like, okay, yeah, it's not outpacing Bitcoin, but it's still going up. And so I'll take that. But then, you know, when the big correction happened at the beginning of this year, it just lost this whole structure. I

immediately was in a major, major downtrend all of a sudden. And it hasn't quite yet recovered. You can see this long-term trend line, price is still below that trend line. However, we got the upgrade and we got this big bounce based on the upgrade. And this is really what it needed. I mean, the reason it was going down as much as it was is because its fundamentals were frankly all out of whack. And the Ethereum foundation was not

guiding the ship very well. You know, they weren't necessarily being the best stewards of this project and they had a change of leadership and they made some big upgrades and, you know, we're seeing price reflect this. And honestly, I was expecting this to roll over a bit after this big uptrend here, this big candle rather. And to my surprise, to my pleasant surprise, it's managed to hold it pretty well. Now, if we kind of zoom in a little bit on the daily,

you know, it's, it's basically broken up kind of into the middle of this range. We had this low that was set down here at 1500 and then the highs that were around the 3800 level. And it's kind of hovering right in the middle. It's sort of reclaimed the middle of this sideways range that it was in. But again, to my pleasant surprise, it has held it as support. And, um,

It hasn't really corrected all that much, you know, like while Bitcoin has like in the last whatever week plus like Bitcoin peaked out and has lost its uptrend structure a little bit. I'm going to kind of zoom in to highlight these moving averages here.

you know, we didn't really get a crossover of the moving averages on the daily timeframe like we did on pretty much most other, all the majors like, you know, Solana, SWE, Bitcoin, all of those other ones rolled over and had crossovers, like bearish crossovers on the daily. Ethereum has managed to keep its structure. It's managed to keep its uptrend. And the two moving averages are kind of just like

hovering right along with each other right now. But to me, ETH looks strong. And like, if you compare it just briefly to the likes of Solana,

you know, again, Solana rolled over major, much, much more of a correction. It's below its bull market support band now. And, uh, you know, moving average crossover to the downside, it got effectively rejected at its resistance level. Whereas again, looking at ETH real quick, ETH is above it. ETH is above support above support band. So better. And, and then, uh, SWE same thing. Now SWE was a little bit better off because it,

it sort of went higher to begin with. So it's still above its support band, but it too rolled over and had a bearish crossover on its moving averages. And again, so, so did Bitcoin, not quite as drastic, but it technically did. So just in sort of black and white terms, looking at ETH, it looks pretty good. Honestly, it looks, it looks halfway decent right now. Like it's, it's holding these gains. It didn't turn around and give this whole big thrust back. And, and, and I like seeing that. So, um,

I guess to answer the question, would I swap XRP and what else was it? Tau. Tau. Well, I don't know. It's tricky. Like the question you have to ask yourself is,

How much, you know, what's the upside potential of those assets, I think, compared to ETH right now? Do I think ETH will go up from here? Yeah, I think maybe it could even get back up to the top of this range. Real quick, you go back to this ETH Bitcoin chart. We really need to see ETH start setting higher highs against Bitcoin, which it's got a ways to go still before it gets to that point. Like, yes, it's starting to flip this weekly trend against Bitcoin, but it's not really even close to setting a higher high yet back up at this other yellow line here. So, yeah.

ETH, as good as it's doing, still hasn't shown that it's going to be the runner for the remainder of the cycle, for the next six months or whatever that means. SPX, though...

you know, or XRP rather, I'm sorry. It's kind of rolling over too. Like it's, it doesn't look great either. Yeah. It had this big run and yes, it's held most of it. And yes, it's held the structure, but it's technically also had a rollover on its moving averages. It's technically also sort of under its bull market support band. So it's looking more like SWE in that regard than, than ETH does. And then TAU,

Tau is different because it's a much, much smaller market cap than both of these, like by tens of or by billions. I mean, rather. Yeah. So it still has a lot more upside and Tau has some good stuff going for it right now. So I think just even though Tau is not going to turn into ETH, Tau is not going to be the next Ethereum or the next XRP or anything like that. But in terms of like, does Tau have more mathematical upside right now in this moment than Ethereum does? Yeah.

quite possibly, yes. But at the same time, it goes back to what we were just saying earlier about the risk curve. Tau is much, much further out the risk curve than Ethereum. And so while Tau

has maybe a chance of going higher, it also has a higher chance of going lower. You know, like the odds are, you know, if you get it wrong and Tau loses favor for whatever reason, because it's comparatively smaller market cap, it could nuke right before your eyes. And you know, unless you're sitting in front of your computer, you might not be able to catch it. Whereas ETH isn't just going to like, ETH isn't going to drop 50% in a week, you know, like Tau could potentially. And so, yeah,

That's that's you know, it kind of comes into your risk profile and sort of if that makes sense for you personally. I don't know. It's hard for me to say, yes, yes, do this, you know, without it sounding like financial advice. Right. And I would say, too, for you, Miles, it also really depends, like kind of what we touched on at the top of the show is like, how often are you going to be able to watch this, especially with something like a talent?

Because you're really going to want to watch that chart to, one, get the timing right, and then, one, also make sure you don't lose your shirt on the downside of the volatility of that. So I would say ask yourself that question because it might seem, especially with ETH showing really nice strength, it might seem you might want to just...

Or an XRP too, I mean. It might seem you may want to just hold on to it because it seems like you've been doing pretty well so far as opposed to switching into something more volatile like Tau. But ETH, you can't really deny the chart and that it is showing some nice strength there. Yeah, yeah. Okay, actually, you were actually touching on Sol and Sui when we were talking about this ETH chart. So I do want to take this question from Rob. Should I swap Sol for Sui? Seems it bounced from the low.

So the risky run there is as soon as you swap your soul for Swee, Solana's going to go on a huge run and you're going to kick yourself. And I've seen that happen before.

I don't know how many times in the Discord over the last year, year and a half, you know, where, oh, I swapped all my Sol to Sui and it just blew up. And now I wish I would have just stayed put. You have to remember, not all of these assets sort of go up and down at the same time. They kind of will go in their own individual cycles. And one week, you know, Sol might go up. The next week, Sui might go up. And particularly those two, I feel like they...

not that they always do the opposite of one another, but again, you're just, you're, you're introducing a lot more risk into your whole situation by swapping back and forth between these assets, you know, semi, semi often. I think that, you know,

just kind of have both. I mean, if you don't know which one to be in, just have a chunk of both. I mean, that's kind of how I modeled the model portfolio because I myself don't know the answer. I think both of these have a... I could make an argument for both of these doing really, really well going into the next phase of the cycle, the rest of the banana zone, whatever you want to call it. And so that's why I just have both. And eventually one will ultimately do better than the other. But right now today, I can't tell you which one it's going to be. And so...

Yeah.

Yeah, I mean, there is like, you know, there's something to say about SWE being lower on the market cap and having a better upside potential this cycle. But I do agree with you holding both. I hold both. I think SWE makes about 45 to 48% of my portfolio. Solana is in that 20, 22% range. And I don't think I'm touching that to be honest with you. Because I like you, Chris, I have that fear that the minute I do something like that, the one that I sold is going to run. So I'm just going to kind of stay put there.

Yeah, yeah. That's like how you get chopped up, basically, is suddenly you switch from one to the other, and in the end you end up with less, you know, of both or something. And it's just like, well, what was the point of that? And so, yeah. So why don't we...

You had another chart to show. I think you were talking about SPX. You mentioned it too. SPX has just been on an absolute tear as well. Like how can we, how can you not have at least a little, all of you asking what you should maybe convert to or swap this and that. I think at the very least, maybe just a little chunk of,

at the least, into SPX, because, I mean, you cannot deny this chart. You can't deny the chart. And you know how I was just showing you, like, the Bitcoin, even the Ethereum, Solana, SWE, XRP, all of those? Remember how all of those were basically rolling over on these moving averages? The green was crossed over the red, and they were rolling over. They were all below their bull market support band or at it.

If you look at SPX here, it's not doing any of those. I mean, not only is it not rolling over, but both of these moving averages are pointed sharply to the upside and they're continuing to diverge further and further apart, signaling that the uptrend is actually gaining strength and

And so and if you look at the series of higher highs and higher lows going way back to well, I mean, even going back to March here, even this is kind of ridiculous at this point. Like, yes, I know Bitcoin has already reached its all time high since the low. And, you know, clearly SPX has not. So.

So but out of the lows, SPX has actually outpaced Bitcoin by over three X. You know, it's it's done a three X on Bitcoin out of these lows. And so and it's rapidly closing back in on its all time high right here that it set back in January. And it doesn't really look like it's slowing down. I mean, even we had this big correction. You know, Bitcoin is still in sort of correction mode, right?

you know, SPX is setting higher highs right now while the rest of the market is red. You know, Bitcoin's red, SWE's red, XRP's red. SPX is up 10% today. Like, what? You know?

like this again, it warrants, uh, consideration. I get, I'm not saying go all out. I'm not saying full port into SPX by all means. Don't even though Murad would, would kill me for saying that because I'm sure he probably, well, he, he's not full, full into SPX. He's got some other stuff too, but, um, you know, have some exposure to this. It's, I know it's, it's a meme coin. Um,

whatever, but like memes are legit and memes are a valid sector. And this one isn't, you know, this one is outpacing everything right now. We going back to that altcoin list, you know, it's, it's right here.

I mean, yes, fart coin is up a little bit more fart coin actually kind of rolled over a little bit of all of these SPX looks the best. Like over the weekend, I went through, I have all these watch lists, you know, that show Bitcoin pairs, um, USD pairs. It breaks it down into memes. It breaks it down into, um, all these different asset classes or sectors within crypto. And of these, I probably went through a hundred charts. SPX look the best out of all of them. Um, like legit against Bitcoin and against USD. So, um,

I mean, the scoreboard, I say that all the time, but just the scoreboard, you know, it is what it is. You want to pick a fast horse? This is a fast horse.

So an SPX has been a top of the scoreboard for some time, top of the attention economy for some time. And that's what memes are, right? It's a, it's an attention economy with a rabid communities behind them that just hold these things. The most rabid can go on X and search for hashtag XPX 6,900 and just look at what you see out there. It's people that are full cult mode. I mean,

they're not talking about price. They're just like, this is my new religion. That's the sort of mindset that you're seeing from these people. And that's what takes a meme to the top, is that kind of insanity, honestly. There's all these other ones. Oh, it's a cute cat, or it's a cute dog, or it's funny, or it's a silly fart joke. Yeah, okay, cool. But like,

Those aren't cults, you know, those aren't like this is my new religion, you know, like and so that's why SPX is doing as well as it is, because that's the kind of mindset that it requires for the level of success that that we think it can achieve. And and it's it's showing that. And so I'm going to I'm going to bet on that, you know, definitely.

I'm going to bet, not everything, but I'm betting on it because it's doing what it needs to do. So that being said, would you say now is a good time as any to get into SPX? Or would you maybe suggest waiting for a little bit of a pullback? I mean, I know there's always a risk waiting for a pullback that just never comes, or if it does come, it's going to be higher than what it is now. But what are your thoughts on somebody who may not have some SPX, but wants some exposure in this moment?

So yeah, sure. Let's, well, we can look at it. What we can see is it does have its share of pullbacks. It's not up only, which is also really good. You don't necessarily want it to be up only because usually the stuff that goes up only turns around and goes down only, you know, you want to see these like slow grinding, slightly higher highs, slightly higher lows kind of, kind of pattern like this. Like this is, this is like the most ideal scenario. And so you can see, yeah, it does come down. However, however, you know, it,

It kind of just did come down. So like it set this peak back here when the market topped and it came back all the way down. It did a 30 percent correction all the way back down to this this sort of support level that had been established. Like it was it was at a resistance level. It took about six days to finally break through this. It kept waking up above it. And then we had the breakout, which is which is good. And it was a classic, classic breakout.

breakout pattern. We had a breakout, immediately came down, retested the breakout level twice, and then went on further continuation to the upside. You want to see that. When you see that, you're like, this is classic breakout pattern. It's going to go up. So I love that.

Um, so it might not be, uh, you might've missed the boat, I guess, in terms of like a recent buy, but you can see it does do its share of corrections. Um, so it could come back down to, well, I don't know if it's going to come all the way back down to the 92 cent level. It may, it may come back down to a dollar give or take, which is right around where the, like the 10 day moving averages. Um, it may just kind of go sideways. What I would do for now, um,

with SPX is just wait until the next time it touches the 10-day moving average and then sort of see where it's at from there. Because, like, if you look...

Sometimes it'll go sideways like this and sort of wait for the moving average to catch up to it. And then other times it'll kind of reverse all the way down and go through the 10 day all the way to the 20. So if it's looks like it's going down and it's red candles down into the moving average, then let it go for a minute and see if it comes all the way to the 20. But if it just sort of plodding sideways like this and the moving average is rapidly catching up to it, then as soon as you get that touch, that's probably the time to buy.

more often than not. So maybe be looking for that. The next time you get a touch on the 10, the 20 is even better, but the next time you get a touch on the 10, sort of evaluate the structure and go from there. But that's what I would be looking for. And like you said, Bijan, there's every chance that it goes up to 140 between now and then. And right now at 120 is the correction level. And you maybe wish you would have bought anyway, but-

You don't know. You never know. You never know how it's going to play out. It's the gift and the curse with memes sometimes. So speaking of memes, I do want to just take this last question from Michal Larson before we end here because we don't really talk about bass very much. Thoughts?

On the meme coin Toshi on base, I'll give you my quick thoughts, Michelle. I think what we just said about SPX, if I had any Toshi or if I was thinking about Toshi, I would just wait, wait for that 10 day moving average on SPX and put it in there instead, because quite frankly, I don't think.

And I could be wrong here, but I just don't see base memes having the same, you know, stickiness as, you know, these SPXs, these fart coins and a lot of these other ones we hear so much about. Yeah, very well said. I do want to let's just see kind of what the chart said here.

It's I mean, it's generally a pretty decent structure overall. I mean, it's generally grinding upwards. We can see. I wouldn't say it's blowing anything away like it's not. I don't know what its market cap is or anything, so I don't really know anything about it. But it's it's just kind of choppy sort of herky jerky price action that's generally grinding in an uptrend. But overall, I don't know that I would want to have this over, say, SPX or

You know, any number, fart coin, virtuals, wrecked even. You know, there's a handful of others out there that I'm really kind of looking at that I've got a bit of a short list. And I don't know that I would put this on it. This is just kind of average performance, I guess.

Yeah, and one thing that sticks out to me too, on this chart at least, is that volume spike, right? Kind of at the beginning part of the year, you see huge volume spike, and you obviously saw the huge candle go up. But then since then, volume has completely teetered off, if you will, as opposed to like an SPX where, yeah, obviously the volume is lower than some of those huge spikes, but it remained consistently high. So that's something that draws my attention on just the activity level behind base.

Right. Yeah, exactly. Exactly. All right. Well, that's going to do it for us today. We loved your questions, guys. So always keep them coming. If you when on the watch back, if you have any questions, you know, just throw them into the chat and we'll always try to take them on our Monday show or again next week as well. So another great session, Chris. Any any thoughts you want to leave us with heading into the week end of week weekend?

Like I said, I'm just kind of waiting for Bitcoin to show its hand here. You know, whether it's going to break down below this sideways structure or break up above these moving averages. I think if it closes a day or even better, still a week, like if it closes the week out above these moving averages, then pretty good chance the low is in and we're going to run from there. But in the meantime, we just got to wait and see.

Just wait and see, guys. Stay patient. And we'll see you on Friday for our weekly review show. And we'll see you again on Monday for another live TA session. So make sure you join the Discord if you haven't already. Make sure you sign up for Connect so that you can join that session. And we'll see you guys next time. Have a great one.

If you like this episode, I'd love for you to head over to realvision.com forward slash join for a free membership. Start your journey today to unfuck your future. Just one click away.