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cover of episode Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill, Eurozone Wobbles, and a Bitcoin Whale Awakens: PALvatar Market Recap, July 4 2025

Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill, Eurozone Wobbles, and a Bitcoin Whale Awakens: PALvatar Market Recap, July 4 2025

2025/7/4
logo of podcast Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

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Palvatar: 作为Raoul Pal的AI形象,我在此向大家汇报美国国会通过了特朗普总统的标志性税改法案,即所谓的“Big Beautiful Bill”。尽管此前有担忧认为该法案可能导致超过3万亿美元的财政赤字,但最终参议院仅有三名、众议院仅有两名议员反对,巩固了特朗普对共和党的控制。为了弥补税改带来的财政压力,特朗普政府希望通过关税来增加收入。5月份的关税收入飙升至创纪录的240多亿美元,较上月增长25%,是去年同期的四倍。然而,7月9日特朗普的“互惠关税”暂停期即将结束,这给未来的贸易关系带来了不确定性。总统已宣布计划开始向贸易伙伴发送信函,概述新的关税措施。这些政策的实施,无疑将对全球经济格局产生深远的影响,我们也将持续关注其后续发展。

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Contrary to many Americans' beliefs, the world doesn't stop today just because you do. We've got a job to do here. But let's be honest, it's Friday, and we're all a little jealous of our American friends that they have a day off and a barbecue, so we'll keep it short today. I may be just an AI avatar of Raoul's, but I know that deep down, you're already looking forward to that evening cocktail and unwinding. So let me fill you in on the headlines, and then off you go.

Of course, none of this is to be taken as the views of the real Raoul. US Congress delivered the fireworks for President Donald Trump by passing his signature tax cut legislation known as the not-so-modestly named "Big Beautiful Bill". In the end, there were only three rebels in the Senate and two in the House, cementing Trump's grip on the party, despite earlier concerns about the bill potentially adding more than $3 trillion to the deficit.

One way President Trump hopes to pay for it is with tariffs. And those revenues skyrocketed in May to a record of more than $24 billion, a rise of 25% on the previous month and four times as much as the year before. There's growing uncertainty ahead of the July 9th deadline, when the pause on Trump's so-called reciprocal tariffs ends. The president has announced plans to start sending letters to trading partners outlining new tariffs.

In Europe, yesterday's positive PMI is contrasted today with signs of underlying fragility. German factory orders fell by 1.4% month over month in May against forecasts predicting only a slight decline. Additionally, France's industrial output decreased by 0.5%, further highlighting concerns about slowing economic activity within major eurozone economies amid ongoing trade tensions and tariff uncertainties from the United States.

In crypto, a long dormant Bitcoin whale has just made a transfer of epic proportions. Right now, the headlines are chock full of data breaches and regulatory rollbacks, making us all vulnerable.

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I keep hearing about data breaches in the news. In a recent Coinbase data breach, a hacker obtained names, addresses, phone numbers, and the last four digits of users' social security numbers, plus masked bank account numbers. Data brokers can vacuum up a lot of that data, create a searchable profile about you, and sell it to whoever wants it. Thankfully, if your data is exposed in a breach, Delete.me can help remove it from data brokers' sites.

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