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cover of episode Trump’s Economic Agenda | Andreas Steno ft Mikkel Rosenvold | Macro Mondays

Trump’s Economic Agenda | Andreas Steno ft Mikkel Rosenvold | Macro Mondays

2025/6/30
logo of podcast Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

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Andreas: 过去六个月市场表现良好,我预计7月会延续这一趋势,即使面临关税上调的潜在风险,但这更像是一种“担忧之墙”。特朗普政府利用数字服务税问题向其他贸易伙伴传递明确信号,在与特朗普谈判时,不应加入数字税,因为他会采取强硬手段。对“大漂亮法案”的修改表明,政府倾向于立即刺激经济,但其融资方式是纯粹的“向上调整”,未来的国会可能会重新谈判。市场将“大漂亮法案”视为高度刺激经济的措施,并与美联储的鸽派立场相符。如果“大漂亮法案”通过,美国经济将全面发展,但国债负担会加重。目前的宏观背景对股市非常有利,许多人对股市上涨持谨慎态度,但伊朗相关的担忧之墙应该被克服。全球贸易的重新开放将带来许多积极消息,中国不再受到事实上的禁运。通胀数据非常温和,这让许多人感到意外,市场尚未对此做好准备。在通胀温和且增长复苏的同时,我们基本上处于一个“金发姑娘”情景中。7月仍然会是一个伟大的月份。美元正在大幅贬值,尤其是在我们迎来一位愿意支持这一议程的美联储主席的情况下。格雷厄姆承认,他的法案允许特朗普对购买俄罗斯石油的国家征收二级关税,这为特朗普增加了一个工具,他可以利用它进行谈判。美国取消对俄罗斯铀交易的制裁是为了避免在对购买俄罗斯能源的国家实施制裁时显得愚蠢。美联储召开紧急会议,讨论降低补充杠杆率,以增加系统流动性,美联储本可以通过将国债排除在补充杠杆率之外来缓解国债市场的压力,但他们选择降低整个比率。降低补充杠杆率意味着银行需要预留的资金减少,这将释放资金,从而放松信贷条件,可能会释放数千亿美元的流动性。银行信贷正在增长,这相当于几个月的量化宽松。美联储似乎愿意支持特朗普政府的策略,如果再加上一位愿意降息的美联储主席,可能会对市场产生重大影响。美联储内部正在酝酿一场派系斗争,许多成员都在争夺主席职位。如果特朗普任命一位言听计从的美联储主席,那将是一个历史性事件。 Mikkel: 特朗普政府迫使加拿大取消数字服务税,这对美国大型科技公司来说是利好。现在的策略似乎是通过增长来抵消赤字。一旦允许机构发行债务,就很难回头,美国国会很难提前计划削减开支。特朗普似乎正在逐步实现他想要的目标,包括通过法案和影响美联储。特朗普政府可能正在利用对俄制裁作为通过“大漂亮法案”的一种手段。特朗普政府似乎非常认真地推动核能发展。石油价格稳定在较低水平,这对西方的通胀压力有利。

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Andreas Steno, founder and CEO of Steno Research, is back with his co-host Mikkel Rosenvold, the firm’s partner and head of geopolitics, to dissect the market impacts of everything from the latest inflation data to Trump's Big Beautiful Bill and new U.S trade deals.

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