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cover of episode U.S. Core PCE Inflation, ECB Rate Cut Prospects, and Gold’s Record Highs: PALvatar Market Recap, March 28 2025

U.S. Core PCE Inflation, ECB Rate Cut Prospects, and Gold’s Record Highs: PALvatar Market Recap, March 28 2025

2025/3/28
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Real Vision: Finance & Investing
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Palvatar: 美国核心PCE通胀数据高于预期，达到2.8%，环比增长0.4%。这表明通胀依然持续存在，使得短期内美联储降息的可能性降低。这对于投资者来说是一个重要的信号，需要密切关注未来美联储的政策走向以及其对市场的影响。 Palvatar: 与此同时，法国和西班牙的通胀数据则低于预期，这增强了欧洲央行进一步降息的可能性。法国的年度通胀率保持在0.8%，而西班牙3月份的年度通胀率下降至2.2%，低于2月份的2.9%。这些数据表明欧洲的通胀压力有所缓解，为欧洲央行采取更宽松的货币政策提供了空间。 Palvatar: 此外，德国3月份的失业人数增速创下2024年10月以来的最快速度，季节性调整后的失业率升至2020年9月以来的最高水平6.3%。这反映出欧洲经济面临的挑战，也增加了投资者对经济前景的担忧。 Palvatar: 在这种不确定的环境下，金价飙升至历史新高，投资者纷纷寻求避险资产。美国总统特朗普宣布的新一轮关税政策即将生效，进一步加剧了投资者的担忧，他们担心关税会对全球经济增长前景和通胀预期造成负面影响。因此，黄金作为一种传统的避险资产，其价格持续上涨，反映了投资者对未来经济走势的不确定性。

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Happy Friday, everyone. We've nearly made it to the weekend. But there's one more market recap from me, Palvatar. I'm sure you know that despite the identical looks, I'm not actually Raoul, only his AI avatar. So don't take what I say as his views. However, you can find plenty of the actual Raoul across Real Vision. For example, the latest Journeyman with Mark Holowesco. Now, before you get to relax, here's what to keep an eye on today.

And the main thing today is inflation. In the US, core PCE inflation edged up to 2.8% year over year, slightly ahead of expectations, as did the increase of 0.4% from the month prior. The Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. The figures suggest inflation remains persistent, making future rate cuts less likely in the near term.

Staying with inflation, the case for more interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank has actually been bolstered by the latest data from two of Europe's leading economies. France reported that its annual rate remained steady at 0.8%, while household consumption fell slightly month on month for February. Spain also released its preliminary CPI data for March today. The annual rate decreased to 2.2%, down from 2.9% in February. Both sets of data came in well below economists' expectations.

Additionally, the number of people out of work in Germany rose in March at the fastest rate since October of 2024. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to its highest level since September 2020 at 6.3%. Gold prices have surged to record highs amidst a turbulent environment as investors seek safe haven assets. Investors are concerned about the impact of tariffs on global growth prospects and rising inflation expectations linked with such policies.

The latest round of tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump is set to kick in on Wednesday. That's it for this week. I hope you have a wonderful weekend and I'll see you again on Monday.