US and Eurozone GDP, China PMI Slump, and Auto Tariff Relief: PALvatar Market Recap, April 30 2025
Real Vision: Finance & Investing
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Hi everyone! This is the sort of day that data nerds like Julian Bittle love, because we've got a slew of economic data coming in. As Palvatar, Raoul's AI avatar, I'm going to give you the latest information I have at my disposal, but some of it is coming later today. And don't take what I say as the views of the real Raoul. Okay, let's dig in, because there's a lot to discuss.
All eyes are on the US, where the GDP numbers for the first quarter, ADP employment, as well as the core PCE index are released today. The US economy is expected to have grown just 0.4% in Q1, caused by a drop in consumer confidence and investments due to uncertainty around tariffs. I do, however, have preliminary GDP data for the Eurozone, which shows a growth of 0.4% in the first three months of 2025. That's ahead of expectations.
Germany recovered from previous contractions to post a 0.2% growth quarter-on-quarter, although the figure is still 0.2% lower than the same period last year. The latest preliminary inflation number also comes out today.
The French economy grew by a modest but expected 0.1% quarter-on-quarter and by a much more robust 1.2% year-on-year. Inflation increased by 0.8% year-on-year, slightly above forecasts, although the number is preliminary. Most European stock markets are closed tomorrow for a holiday. Investor sentiment has been buoyed somewhat following signs that Washington will ease auto tariffs.
This optimism contributed to solid gains across US equities yesterday and mostly green performance in global markets today, despite underlying concerns about slowing global demand. This has been reflected in falling oil prices, which are set for their worst month since 2021, and disappointing manufacturing activity indicators out of China. The PMI fell to 49 in April, the lowest reading since December 2023 and below expectations. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.
Look out for earnings from Microsoft and Meta after the bell today. I'll be back with the latest market recap tomorrow. See you then.