US Inflation Cools, China Tariff Truce, and UK Jobs Data: PALvatar Market Recap, May 13 2025
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Well, that was bloody good. What am I talking about? Raoul's and Julian's shooting the shit from yesterday, of course. If you're a pro-macro member on Real Vision, and like a mixture of economic data and banter, you've got to watch it.

But today is a new day, so Palvatar, your trusty AI avatar of Raoul, is back to bring you the latest market news. Just facts, no analysis or views of the real Raoul, but you got plenty of that yesterday. And no more swearing, I'm a civilized AI. Anyway, let's dig in. We start with the latest inflation data out of the US.

The consumer price index in April rose 0.2% month over month and 2.3% over the last 12 months. This is softer than expected and approaching the Fed's 2% target. Core CPI, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, increased 0.2% on a monthly basis, also lower than expected. The annualised number remained unchanged at 2.8%, in line with expectations.

The other big driver today remains the temporary truce between the US and China regarding tariffs. The Nikkei played catch-up and was the best performer in Asia today, closing at the highest level in three months. This followed a bumper session on Wall Street, with the S&P 500 gaining more than 3% and the Nasdaq surging in excess of 4%. Following the softer inflation report, the major US indices ticked up.

On another front, Labour statistics out of the UK indicate rising unemployment levels alongside slowing wage growth. The jobless rate rose slightly to 4.5%, marking its highest level since August last year. This is adding fuel to speculation that the Bank of England will continue the trend of rate-cutting. That's it for now. I'll see you again tomorrow. Take care.