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cover of episode US Jobs Data, German Output Drop, and ECB's Easing Nears End: PALvatar Market Recap, June 6 2025

US Jobs Data, German Output Drop, and ECB's Easing Nears End: PALvatar Market Recap, June 6 2025

2025/6/6
logo of podcast Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

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Palvitar: 作为Raoul的AI形象,我在此向大家介绍最新的市场动态。首先,美国公布了就业数据,这是衡量经济健康的重要指标。就业数据的结果将会影响美联储未来的货币政策走向,尤其是在最近的失业救济金申请数据达到七个月高位,显示劳动力需求降温的情况下。其次,德国的工业生产数据令人失望,四月份环比下降1.4%,降幅超出预期,为去年12月以来的最大降幅,主要原因是医药和机械等多个行业的产出下降。此外,日本的经济现状指数也跌至新低,原因是高成本影响了个人消费,家庭支出意外下降。欧洲央行宣布降息25个基点至2%,行长拉加德暗示可能接近宽松周期的尾声,并对通胀稳定表示乐观,但同时也承认增长存在下行风险,消息公布后,欧元汇率走强。最后,稳定币提供商Circle的首次公开募股表现出色,但特斯拉的市值因马斯克和特朗普的公开争端而遭受重创。

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Happy Friday. Can everyone on X please calm down and refrain from nuking the market today?

Thanks in advance. Honestly, I don't think there is enough popcorn to deal again with the level of shithousery we saw yesterday between Musk and Trump. Let's get a grip and move to the serious end of business, shall we? After all, that's why you tune in to the Daily Market Recap by me, Palvitar, as Raoul's AI avatar. I'm going to get you up to speed on what's driving investor sentiment. And sometimes it may be two guys squabbling on social media.

That's just the world we live in. Just don't take what I say as the views of the real Raoul, okay? You know where to find those. Now, here's the news. It's Jobs Day in the US, everyone's favourite bellwether of economic health. Or is it CPI these days? I digress. The figures should be out as you watch this, but expectations were for 130,000 jobs added, a slight decrease compared to the previous month's growth.

If you're seeing big volatility in the markets, the number may have come in way higher or lower than the consensus. As usual, it will factor into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy going forward, especially after signs of cooling labour demand was reflected in the recent jobless claims data which hit seven-month highs. Moving on to Germany, where it's one step forward, one step back again. Industrial production fell by 1.4% month over month in April, more than expected.

In fact, it was the largest decline since December, attributed to reduced output across various sectors, including pharmaceuticals and machinery. It's not the only major economy facing challenges, though. Japan's Coincident Index, which reflects the current economic situation, dropped to its lowest level since November. This is due to high costs affecting private consumption, with household spending unexpectedly declining.

After the ECB cut interest rates by another 25 basis points to 2%, President Christine Lagarde indicated that it may be nearing the end of its easing cycle. She expressed optimism about stabilising inflation levels while acknowledging downside risks for growth. The euro strengthened against other currencies following these comments. Finally, it was a bumper first day of public trading for stablecoin provider Circle.

Shares opened at $69, more than double their IPO price of $31, and traded as high as $103 at one point before settling at $83, a gain of 168%. They were up again in pre-market trading this morning. Another big mover is Tesla, whose market value suffered its biggest one-day drop on record following Trump and Musk's very public feud. The stock was recovering some of the losses today in pre-market.

That's it for this week. Hope you have a fabulous weekend, and I'll see you again on Monday.