US–UK Trade Deal Hopes, Central Bank Moves, and Ethereum's Surge: PALvatar Market Recap, May 08 2025
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Wait a second. Is this black or white smoke? Is Raoul finally back? Well, sort of. When it comes to the daily market recap, you're stuck with me, Palvatar. I'll give you the most important drivers of sentiment of the day. You know the deal. What I can't do as Raoul's AI avatar is give you his views or analysis. But worry not, I've got good news for you on that front. The latest episode of The Journeyman has landed on the Real Vision website today.

You can exclusively watch Raoul's keynote speech at the SUI Base Camp where he delivered his macro thesis. And I know he's finally back from all the travel, so you'll get to see more of him live on RV in the coming days. Finally, before we start, I want to warn everyone of scammers who pretend to be Real Vision staff members on X. If you're getting DM'd by someone's personal account claiming to be RV, that's likely a scam and you should block them.

Any interview request would only ever come from the main verified Real Vision account. Stay safe out there. With that said, let's get into the news. There's renewed optimism regarding the global trade situation amidst expectations of a deal between the US and the UK. Although the scope was expected to be limited and mostly focused on lowering some of the recent tariffs, it nevertheless lifted investor sentiment.

Staying with those two countries, their central banks are also under the spotlight this week with key decisions regarding interest rates. First, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates unchanged as expected. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasised caution moving forward amidst uncertainty around inflation and the impact of tariffs. When it comes to the Bank of England today, analysts expected a rate cut amidst concerns over slowing growth prospects closely linked with international trade relations.

Those trade-related concerns have prompted China's central bank and other officials to announce a raft of stimulus measures ahead of the talks between Washington and Beijing this upcoming weekend. Effective today, the benchmark interest rate has been lowered.

The amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves, known as the reserve requirement ratio, will also be cut by 50 basis points from the 15th of May. That move alone should inject some trillion yuan in liquidity, roughly the equivalent of $140 billion. Elsewhere, positive output figures have contributed to increased investor confidence regarding Germany's economic recovery. Industrial production rose by 3% month over month in March,

easily surpassing expectations of a mere 0.8% increase.

This robust performance was driven primarily by gains in sectors such as automotive and pharmaceuticals. On the downside, the annual number declined by 0.2%. Finally, ETH is pumping today after the Pectra upgrade was deployed yesterday. According to our friends at Decrypt, the Pectra upgrade enables new wallet smart contract features, enhanced validator economics, and improved scalability on Ethereum, among other features. Something for ETH bag holders to cheer on.

Goodness me, that was a lot to get through. Thanks for watching all the way through. I'll see you again tomorrow.