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Live From Miami

2025/3/19
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Animal Spirits Podcast
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Ben Carlson
一位专注于投资教育和策略的金融专家，通过博客和播客分享投资见解。
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Michael Batnick
作为 Ritholtz Wealth Management 的管理合伙人和研究总监，Michael Batnick 是一位知名的投资专家和播客主持人。
Topics
Michael Batnick: 我认为短期内不会出现熊市，但这只是一个概率判断，并非确定的预测。市场可能会出现回调并重新测试低点。我们今天的播客表现不佳，但我们承认了这一点。我们准备不足，导致播客质量下降。我最近与邮件礼仪相关的经历让我感到有些恼火，某些邮件回复方式过于咄咄逼人。 Ben Carlson: 他认为预测市场走势是不可能的。现在的市场波动比以往更快。我们可能在十年内经历第三次熊市。美国股票下跌而欧洲股票上涨的情况是不可想象的，但现在却发生了。媒体经常报道个体投资者因市场波动而做出仓促的投资决策。一些投资者因为对市场缺乏了解而做出错误的投资决策。他认为目前经济正在放缓，可能出现经济衰退。消费者情绪下降，企业削减开支，可能导致经济衰退。与2008年不同，目前劳动力市场疲软，人们不会要求加薪，这可能导致经济衰退。即使经济衰退，也可能只是温和的衰退。他最近读了一本关于 Lorne Michaels 的书，并从中获得了商业管理方面的启示。他认为回复邮件不及时是一种不礼貌的行为。经济状况的民调结果受到政治因素影响很大。他建议忽略那些受政治因素影响的民调结果。他认为应该关注人们的行为而不是他们所说的内容。算法会放大负面信息，导致人们对经济的看法过于悲观。迈阿密是一个被低估的电影城市。 Michael Batnick: 我不认为会发生熊市，但我也不确定。一些投资者因为对市场缺乏了解而做出错误的投资决策。我最近与邮件礼仪相关的经历让我感到有些恼火，某些邮件回复方式过于咄咄逼人。

Deep Dive

Chapters
Michael Batnick celebrated his 40th birthday with a surprise party at Poppy Steakhouse in Miami. The surprise cake was initially intended for another table, creating a funny and unexpected moment.
  • Michael's 40th birthday celebration
  • Poppy Steakhouse
  • Surprise cake mix-up

Shownotes Transcript

On episode 404 of Animal Spirits, Michael Batnick) and Ben Carlson) discuss: a bear market in Mag 7 stocks, one of the fastest corrections ever, surveys gaslighting investors, a possible consumer slowdown, more travel stories and email etiquette advice, the best movie cities, and much more!

This episode is sponsored by YCharts. Sign up today at: https://go.ycharts.com/animal-spirits)

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Find complete show notes on our blogs:

Ben Carlson’s A Wealth of Common Sense)

Michael Batnick’s The Irrelevant Investor)

Feel free to shoot us an email at [email protected]) with any feedback, questions, recommendations, or ideas for future topics of conversation.

 

Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management.

The Compound Media, Incorporated, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management), receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers). Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. The information provided on this website (including any information that may be accessed through this website) is not directed at any investor or category of investors and is provided solely as general information.

Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. See our disclosures here:

https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/)

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