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cover of episode Talk Your Book: Animal Spirits Live

Talk Your Book: Animal Spirits Live

2024/11/25
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Animal Spirits Podcast
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Alex Morris
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Alex Morris阐述了F/M Investments的投资理念，即连接优秀的alpha生成者和投资组合，并消除两者之间的障碍。他们推出了美国国债基准系列ETF，以满足市场需求，而非单纯预测利率上涨。尽管美联储降息，资金仍然大量涌入货币市场基金，因为4%的票面利率对储蓄者来说仍然具有吸引力。资金正在流入市场，但并非集中于某一特定领域，这是一种积极的现象。大量资金来自过去几年投资于私募基金的投资者，这些资金现在已解锁并进入公共市场。市场对美国大选结果的反应积极，这表明投资者关注的是通货膨胀、就业和基本面等因素。收益率曲线正在尝试解读尚未制定的政策以及尚未发生或承诺的事情，因此存在很多猜测。美国经济的基本面依然强劲，市场正在自行调整。收益率上升可能更多地是由于投资者重新调整仓位，而非对经济前景的担忧。美联储的降息可能存在预判失误，但他们已经调整了策略。收益率曲线不必总是呈现标准化形状，当前的形状也并非一定意味着问题。信用利差保持紧缩是因为经济良好，违约率低。如果收益率较高，通胀保值债券可能是一个不错的投资机会。投资者对通胀保值债券的误解在于，他们将其视为国库券加上通胀保护，而实际上并非如此。私募信贷市场可能会出现更多债券发行，以及旨在将其带入大众市场的ETF和其他产品。将私募信贷纳入ETF结构存在流动性挑战，因为这些资产并非每日都能赎回和创建。目前私募信贷市场规模相对较小，不太可能对投资级信贷的利差产生重大影响。美国政府不会很快耗尽资金，因为政府拥有印钞机。不要过度关注对政府债务危机的预测，因为这些预测往往是错误的。鉴于通胀持续存在，投资者应关注实际收益率。尽管股市上涨，资金仍在流入固定收益产品，因为投资者对现有收益率感到满意。未来资金流向难以预测，可能会流向固定收益市场，也可能流向其他领域。F/M Investments未来计划推出更多与通胀保值债券相关的产品。F/M Investments在设计产品时，主要考虑的是顾问的需求，但同时也希望产品对散户投资者可用。 Michael Batnick和Ben Carlson主要就市场走势、投资者情绪以及美联储政策等方面与Alex Morris进行了探讨，并就一些具体的投资策略和市场现象提出了自己的看法。

Deep Dive

Chapters
The discussion explores why investors are still crowded on the short end of the curve, the impact of Fed cuts on rates, and the tightness of credit spreads.
  • Investors are still crowded on the short end of the curve due to the security and yield offered by short-term government bonds.
  • The Fed's rate cuts have not significantly impacted the flow of money into money market funds.
  • Credit spreads remain tight due to strong economic fundamentals and low default rates.

Shownotes Transcript

On today's show, we are live from Chicago with Alex Morris, Chief Investment Officer of F/m Investments) to discuss why investors are still crowded on the short end of the curve, thoughts on why rates went up following a Fed cut, why credit spreads have remained so tight, not taking advice from hedge fund managers, and much more!

Find complete show notes on our blogs...

Ben Carlson’s A Wealth of Common Sense)

Michael Batnick’s The Irrelevant Investor)

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