Economic Chaos and Car Costs: How to Weigh Risks in Uncertain Times
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Sean, how's your car doing these days? I love my car. She is happy and healthy and ready to roll. How's yours? It's all good for now, but for at least one of our listeners, it might be time to get into the car market. But they're wondering about the effect of tariffs on that decision. Well, we've got thoughts and advice, so rev the engines. ♪

Welcome to NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast, where you send us your money questions and we answer them with the help of our genius nerds. I'm Sean Piles. And I'm Elizabeth Ayola. This episode, we're looking at whether tariffs and other factors mean it's a good time to buy a car or not. But

But first, our weekly money news roundup, where we break down the latest in the world of finance to help you be smarter with your money. Elizabeth, I'm sure you'd agree that these are confusing times for our financial lives. I would agree, Sean. And if I didn't work in the news business, I'd try to avoid the headlines as much as possible. But we can't, and a lot of other people can't either. So,

So how do we navigate all the uncertainty around us? It's not the first time we've asked that question on the show, but we're asking it again to get some perspective from NerdWallet economist and longtime friend of the show, Elizabeth Renter. Welcome back, Liz.

Sean, Elizabeth, thanks so much for having me. I don't know about you, Liz, but I find it incredibly difficult these days to just tune out the daily machinations of the U.S. and global economies, and not just because I host a finance show. It seems like we're on this wild roller coaster, and a lot of us would really like for the ride to end so we don't have to pay attention anymore. I'd

I'd love to get a gut check from you of whether the sense of chaos is justified or, you know, we've been here before and we'll be here again. So just write it out. The sense of chaos is totally justified. So consider those feelings officially validated, Sean. Thank you. Not only have we not previously seen the scope and complexity of the current tariffs for just one example, but the way new policies are being talked about

implemented, rescinded, reintroduced, etc. All of that is very unique, too. So not only are the policies themselves unusual and exciting, not necessarily in a good way, but we don't know what's really going to happen when. And that all makes for some confusion and

and stress, whether you're just a casual news watcher or an economist or podcast host at NerdWallet. I personally feel like there are a few kinds of chaos going on right now. So on one hand, we have everything around tariffs. We've talked about that a few times on the show now. They're on, then they're off, then they're on again. And then the second element of chaos is the stock market. And some of that is tied to the tariffs. But again, we're having just these really wild swings.

And then, of course, we're watching for how all of this is affecting prices and inflation. And a few months ago, inflation was coming down. But now, who knows what's going to happen? Liz, does all of this seem about right? Absolutely. The economic policies, whether it's the tariffs or things that impact government spending, such as doge cuts and the spending bill, these all have the potential to have significant impacts on the economy, both immediately and for months and potentially years to come.

Merely talking about these things can move the markets, and we're seeing the stock market react pretty quickly and dramatically to those things. In the short term, these policies and merely talking about them can impact investments and how we spend and save.

In the midterm, they can also impact prices and supply. And down the road, on a broad scale, they could change global trade patterns, industry, domestic and abroad, labor markets, election outcomes, and so much more. And that's just at a high level. At a household level, it could change your home buying or vacation plans this year, the work you're doing in five years from now, or what your children decide to be when they grow up.

It feels like we're at a tennis match, Liz, with our heads bobbing from one side to another, and then we get bonked on the head with a ball. The whiplash is really tough to deal with. Oh, seriously, Elizabeth. I think if you're someone who watches the headlines, whether for work or just because you want to stay informed, it can be very overwhelming. And I think many of us hold the sentiment that at least some of the policy changes or communications surrounding them would be laughable if they weren't so serious.

And some days that whiplash will have you just throwing up your hands and really that's a good time to get outside and go for a walk. When in doubt, touch grass. Liz, can you give us a sense of where all this uncertainty falls historically? Of course, we had the pandemic five years ago and the 2008 financial crisis was somehow almost 20 years ago now. And then there have been plenty of other chaotic times before that. How would you describe this moment in that context? Is it a big deal? Is it a blip? I think it's a big deal.

I think it's a big deal. I mean, there's a chance we look back at this 20 years from now and see it as less of a big deal. It honestly depends on where all of the policies ultimately land. But as we're living it, the real-time experience and potential impacts are significant. I think what makes this moment different from what we've experienced in the past is both the drama of the actual policies, so the tariff amounts and who they're targeting, for instance, but the chaos surrounding them. And when you put those together, we haven't experienced anything like this before.

In some ways, we really couldn't have. You know, technology has really enabled this chaos to the extent that we're seeing. Now, more than ever, the entire world can be informed of the whims behind the actual policies. You know, if the president or other policymakers happen to be reactive and vocal, we're going to ride their roller coaster whether we want to or not. So while the impact of actual policies could be significant, we're also dealing with this additional layer, which we've seen can move markets and shape behavior. Yeah.

And it feels unnerving all the time as well. Yeah. So our traditional advice for people and what you hear a lot is to tune out the noise. Focus on the long term and the fundamentals of good personal finance management. That's what everyone is saying. But for those of us who don't have a hole to crawl into and come out of when the dust settles, can you walk us through some ways to cope with all the noise happening if we can't tune it out?

Elizabeth, I think the traditional advice still definitely holds. It just has become more difficult. There's a lot more noise. So you want to tune out the noise that has no real potential impact, but you don't want to entirely plug your ears. And parsing the noise without impact from the potential impact is just so very difficult right now. Regardless, the fundamentals hold.

In times of economic stress, the best advice remains to shore up your emergency fund, manage your debt responsibly, and don't get reactive with your investments. That's smart. When people ask me what they should do with their money right now, well, first of all, I remind them that I won't tell them what to do with their money unless they are a client of my financial planning firm.

I suggest that they think about the current uncertainty kind of like a storm cloud on the horizon. It might come this way, it might go elsewhere, it might dissipate, but you want to take proactive steps now to protect yourself just in case.

So maybe that means foregoing some discretionary spending to beef up your emergency savings or taking a risk tolerance questionnaire and also avoid making overly emotional financial decisions. What about you, Elizabeth? Well, I must say that people are not asking me what to do with their money, but...

But I know what I'm doing with my money. I have personally been reviewing my budget more frequently, cutting back on unnecessary expenses like Instacart, Uber Eats. Can you believe I canceled my Amazon Prime? Proud of you. Thank you. Thank you. And also just upping my emergency savings. I've also increased the amount I'm contributing to my retirement accounts. And to Liz's point, I do spend time reading the news, but spend the most of my time focused on what I can control.

So Liz, how do you know when it's really time to worry? Are there some signs to look for that tell us, yeah, maybe it's actually time to think about doing something different than we've been doing? What worries you? The things that worry me as an individual aren't always the same things that worry me as an economist. And

Honestly, it's that difference that makes my job challenging. As an economist right now, the thing I'm concerned about is long-term effects on global trade relations and the place of the U.S. economy within the world. Day to day, I'm watching things like inflation and the impact to the labor market, and I anticipate we're going to see some uncomfortable changes in both of these areas. But bigger picture, I'm concerned that the approach to economic policies under this administration could undermine the strength of our economy longer term. This is

less of a sure thing than higher prices due to tariffs. That will happen. But it's a big concern of mine. And then what worries me as an individual is what I think worries most of us. You know, what does the market volatility mean for my retirement? How will tariffs impact the cost to maintain my car? Because I really love my car too. So that's a big one. And

If the worst case happens and we do enter a recession, who around me might lose their job? Is my emergency fund big enough? And can it ever be? You know, I think these concerns are pre-universal. Yes, I have many of these too, Liz. So I feel you. So is there anything I can absolutely 100% ignore?

I think the answer to that might be different for everyone. In an effort to stay informed, you may be putting yourself under undue stress. So I think the key to knowing how much information to consume is weighing the costs of that information. And that involves first understanding why you're paying attention. Is your goal of listening to have more informed conversations?

to make better financial decisions, to get amped up and mad when things are chaotic. Like I don't think anyone really wants that last one, but at some point there are really diminishing returns where the more you know, the fewer benefits you're getting from it and the worse you feel. So I think it's useful to ask yourself, how much do I really need to know? And how soon do I need to know it? These things are happening around us so fast that staying up to date in real time is a full-time job.

Trust me, it's my job. It's your guys' job, too. So maybe you throttle your consumption by setting boundaries about what you consume and when and where you get it from, for instance. So as an economist, Liz, what are some of your personal coping mechanisms when it comes to uncertainty around our financial system? Well, for me, it's all about controlling that flow of information and primarily controlling the sources of information.

Personally, my warning bells go off when I'm seeking economic news or information and I'm met with high emotion delivery. For that reason, I really don't use much social media as a source for this information. Generally speaking, if I come across a talking head on social media and they're discussing the latest in financial or economic news,

It goes in one ear and out the other. It's just one of my coping mechanisms. Sometimes the same can be said for television news too. Because when I listen to highly emotional responses, my heart beats faster and I get worked up too. And that's not helpful. So I try to get my info from multiple sources.

I personally prefer reading to video, and I always scan for the facts rather than the analysis. For the analysis aspect, I do follow some experts in economics, policy, supply chains, and the like, primarily on LinkedIn and Substack. And I know LinkedIn is social media, definitely not the sexiest of social media. But the thing I like about it for this is you have immediate insight into the background or the credentials of who's offering their opinion. And that just makes it more of a conscientious consumption.

Well, Elizabeth Renter, it's always good to get your perspective, and we are so glad to have you back on Smart Money. Thank you. Thanks so much for having me. Up next, we answer a listener's question about whether it's the right time to buy a car.

But before we get into that, a reminder to send us your money questions. Are you wondering how to recession-proof your investment portfolio? Maybe you just experienced a big change to your personal and financial life and you want some help adjusting. Leave us a voicemail or text us on the Nerd Hotline at 901-730-6373. That's 901-730-NERD. Or you can email us at podcast at nerdwallet.com.

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We're back and we're answering your money questions to help you make smarter financial decisions. This episode's question comes from Tiffany in Colorado who sent us an email.

Hello, nerds. I've been driving a 2009 Honda CR-V with 136,000 miles. This car has been great to me, but it's starting to require more repairs. I invest in my 401k and I'm working on increasing my emergency fund. So my goal was to keep it for the next two or three years, then purchase another car.

But of course, now I have to weigh in the tariffs. Chances are both new and used cars will be significantly more expensive in a couple of years than they are now. If I purchase now, I will need to finance for a longer period of time, probably 60 months for a used car. I know that that's not ideal and I will pay more in interest. But will I end up spending less than if I were to wait three years, pay more for the car, but finance for a shorter duration?

One note, I do have excellent credit. I would love your nerdy input as I go through this decision tree. Tiffany in Colorado. Now to help us answer Tiffany's question, we're joined by Shannon Bradley, an authority on auto loans and no stranger to this podcast. Hey, Shannon. Hey, Elizabeth. Thanks for inviting me back.

Excited to have you and talk through cars today. All right, Shannon. So this listener has an important question about the timing for car buying. So let's start by broadly discussing how tariffs could impact car prices over the next few years. Well, the rollout of auto tariffs has been challenging to follow with so many changes along the way. So I'll try to summarize where we are at the time of this podcast recording in late May.

Since early April, there has been a 25% tariff on imported vehicles, and in early May, a 25% tariff on foreign-made auto parts went into effect. But the auto parts tariff enables carmakers to apply for a partial reimbursement over the next two years if the car is assembled in the U.S.,

So right now, the impact of tariffs on car prices hasn't been too significant because dealers have still been selling pre-tariff inventory, but we're starting to see prices rise. And if everything stays as it is now, I think car buyers can expect to pay higher prices over the next few years with at least some portion of these tariffs being passed on to consumers.

Should listeners be letting tariffs influence their car purchasing decisions, especially considering how erratic tariff news has been? I wouldn't make a car purchasing decision on tariffs alone. Even before tariff became a household word, we recommended considering your overall financial picture when deciding whether to buy a car.

For example, do you already have a monthly car payment and how will adding or increasing a monthly payment fit into your budget? New car prices are still near the record highs they reached during COVID-19. So the average monthly payment right now is around $750.

When you buy a car, a goal to strive for is spending no more than 10% of your monthly take-home pay on your car payment and no more than 15% to 20% on total car costs, such as gas, insurance, and maintenance, as well as the payment. So even if a person feels the need to buy a car now to avoid possible price increases, it really doesn't make sense if it's going to put them into a financial bind.

Although that doesn't seem to be Tiffany's situation, it sounds like she manages her money well and takes time to think through financial decisions. That's what I gathered from her question as well. It does sound like Tiffany is also working through financial priorities because she mentioned contributing to a 401k and also building up her emergency fund. Where does a new car typically fall in order of financial priorities?

Well, when it comes to buying a car, that's not always a clear-cut answer. Let's say you're using the 50-30-20 rule to budget and set priorities. That rule says a person should allocate 50% of their after-tax income to needs or essentials, 30% to wants, and 20% to savings and debt repayment.

Typically, transportation falls under essentials because most people need a vehicle to get to work to earn an income. Items in the needs category are usually prioritized over savings and wants.

But there are situations when transportation could actually be a want. For example, if your current car is fine, get you where you need to be safely and reliably, but you just want a newer model. Or if you could easily use public transportation instead of having a car, to choose not to. So it can make more sense to prioritize savings and pay down debt over buying a car that isn't truly a necessity.

Tiffany may be in a scenario right now where repairs are getting pricier than the actual value of the car, considering it has over 136,000 miles. Now, generally speaking, if the car's value is lower than the repair costs, it might make financial sense to get a new car. But I know that's not always black and white. So what are some scenarios where it might be cheaper long term to buy a new car versus keeping the one you have?

Well, many automotive experts say if repair expenses surpass 50% of your car's market value, and that's a value you can research on sites like Kelley Blue Book or Edmunds,

then you should consider whether paying for continued repairs even makes sense. In this case, it might be time to redirect that money you're spending on repairs toward a new car or a used car that's in better condition. That's especially true if the car is no longer reliable and safe. Would you say there are any exceptions to this rule? Yes, there are always exceptions to the rule. You can't know with 100% certainty that a car will get you through another few years.

But there are some instances when there could be a stronger argument for keeping one instead of replacing it. First, has the car's owner, whether you or someone else, consistently maintained it? Has it been driven gently with mostly highway miles, which is easier on a car?

Is it a make and model known for longevity? Tiffany has a 16-year-old Honda CR-V with more than 136,000 miles. But Honda CR-Vs have a reputation for going beyond 200,000 miles when well-maintained. Seven years ago, I traded in a 19-year-old Subaru with more than 250,000 miles, and someone is still driving it.

So a lot depends on the car itself. Yeah, I have a Honda for that very reason, as you mentioned, longevity. And my first car was also a Honda. But that said, we don't know what shape Tiffany's car is in. Right. Tiffany said the CR-V is starting to need repairs, but she didn't really say how frequently or at what cost. If repairs aren't extensive...

So,

So, Shannon, do you think it's worth waiting to buy a new car considering everything going on? Data from the Commerce Department shows that spending on cars jumped after news of tariffs broke. So it looks like some people are already rushing to buy cars. I'm also seeing some news that the supply is on the thinner side. So what are your thoughts?

What we've been telling people since early March is if they plan to get another car in the next few years, whether new or used, it was a good idea to do it before prices increased and supply dwindled. There are still pre-tariff cars available, but that window is rapidly closing and selection is becoming more limited. Car sales did jump significantly starting in late March as car buyers rushed to beat tariffs.

And according to Kelly Blue Book, April's average new car transaction price increased 2.5% over the previous month, reaching nearly $48,700. Did I hear $48,700? Yes, you did. And that's not all. Used car prices started to increase in April, too. So both used and new are increasing by quite a bit.

We're approaching a point when it could be more difficult to find a good deal. If so, it might be worth waiting, especially considering that these tariffs have been on again, off again. Shannon, that's a crazy amount. I remember I bought my second car, the Honda, during the pandemic and car prices already started increasing. And I paid for a used car almost half that amount. So I can't believe that it's hiked that much.

And that's the thing that I think, you know, if someone hasn't been in the market to buy a car for a while, they

They don't realize that, you know, these prices reached record highs during the pandemic and they never really decreased. Right now, the price of both used and new cars are still near the record prices that they reached during the pandemic. That's so interesting because before I bought my car, I was thinking to myself, similar to this listener, should I wait? Because, you know, the costs of cars were going up. And had I waited, I may be paying double the price now.

Yes, that is very true. And so you take into account that tariffs were not an issue during the pandemic. So for people who have continued to wait, and a lot of people did that during COVID-19, it's like, if I wait, car prices will start to go down, and they didn't. And so now they're still as high as they were, and we're talking about piling tariff costs on top of it.

So it is a lot to think about for someone who is not currently paying a car payment or would see their car payment double. You really have to think through whether that's something that is absolutely necessary right now. Now, you know, if it's a case that you just know you're going to have to buy another car,

or you're going to buy a car, but it's not going to be a huge financial strain, then it would probably be something that you would want to try to go ahead and do. So tariffs aside, are some seasons better than others to buy a car? Traditionally, some times are better than others for getting a better deal. But of course, we don't know how tariffs will affect that.

Tariffs aside, though, the best times are at the end of the model year when dealers are often discounting the previous year's model to clear it out. Manufacturers release new models at various times of the year, which is a little different than what it used to be. There was a point in time where spring was the one time of year that new models are released all year long. So if you have your eye on a certain model,

check to see when the new version comes out. Other good times are at the end of the month, quarter, or calendar year, especially December, when dealers and salespeople have quotas to meet. The listener also wants to know whether it works out cheaper to wait three years or finance the car over 60 months. What are your thoughts here? Well, Tiffany said that she has excellent credit, which is great, and would most likely be getting a used car. So for a borrower in the top credit tier...

The interest rate for a 60-month used car loan is about 5.5% right now, and the average used car price is around $27,000. Back to those prices here. Based on these numbers, and not including any down payment, trade-in amount, or taxes, Tiffany's payment would be about $515 a month with a total loan cost of nearly $31,000.

So looking ahead, it's impossible to predict with any accuracy what will happen to car prices and interest rates in three years. But let's say interest rates remain around 5.5% for a client credit and the average used car price increases $2,000. And I use that amount because it's the amount some analysts have predicted on the low end for new cars.

48-month loan on a $29,000 car at this rate would cost about $1,300 more than financing a less expensive car for 60 months now. But I have to stress that the second scenario is really hypothetical, and it doesn't take into account a down payment, taxes, or possibly a shorter loan term. Also, that difference would be much greater for someone without excellent credit.

So I'd really recommend that people use a not-alone calculator and input their own information, such as the amount of a down payment, for a more accurate comparison.

And I will add that we do have an auto loan calculator on nerdwallet.com and we will include it in the show description. Yes, we do. Please use the NerdWallet auto loan calculator. What role does shopping around play in the process? I personally put tons of research and time into choosing a car and at times it felt like a full-time job, to be honest. It can feel like a full-time job, but the savings can be significant. The typical advice we give car buyers, tariffs or no tariffs,

is to avoid buying the first car you see and don't automatically take dealership financing. You know, if you find a car that you're interested in, check online buying guides like Kelley Blue Book and Edmunds to ensure that the car is fairly priced. And if not, negotiate if possible. And I say if possible because some online car retailers won't negotiate. If you have a vehicle to trade in, make sure you're getting a fair price for it too.

And also, just as you should shop around for cars, shop for the best loan. Get pre-approved loan offers so you know the lowest rate you can qualify for. And if you're buying at a dealership, take your lowest pre-approved loan offer to see if they can beat it. One final thing I want to mention is the possibility of leasing a car to get through the next two or three years.

If someone really needs transportation and can't afford a high car payment right now, some manufacturers are offering lease deals with monthly payments of less than $300. Most do require several thousand dollars up front and you aren't building equity or ownership in the car.

But it could be a bridge during this crazy tariff time. At the end of the lease, you would turn the car back in, or you could buy and keep the car. A lease buyout loan is a possible funding option for that.

What are some high-level ways that listeners like Tiffany can think through their decision about when to buy a new car or wait? First, determine if buying a different car is a want or a need. Is your current car dangerous or regularly breaking down, leaving you and possibly your family stranded or making it impossible to get to your job? You know, there are situations when a person simply can't delay a car purchase.

Second, make a true assessment of your current car. For about $100 or a little more, you can have a certified mechanic inspect the vehicle and provide a report of repairs that would be considered an absolute must.

both now and possibly in the future. Ask for cost estimates of each to get an idea of what you could end up spending on repairs. I love that suggestion, Shannon. So I recently actually did that so I could have a clear idea of where my car was and not end up with, surprise, this is broken bills. Yeah, nobody wants the surprise, this is broken bills. You know, along that same line, nobody wants, surprise, I can't make this car payment. True. Because you didn't plan ahead. Right.

The last thing I would like to say is take some time to think about what you can afford. Use an auto loan calculator to determine the maximum amount you can spend on a car and at what interest rate in term to arrive at a monthly payment that isn't a stretch for your budget. Is finding a reliable vehicle, especially in this economy, possible in the necessary price range? Is it realistic?

Also, you know, don't forget to factor in other costs that a lot of times people don't think of when buying a car like registration and insurance, because, you know, when you buy a different car, it's a good possibility those will increase too. Now, before you head out, Shannon, I'd love to know how you typically approach buying new cars. Yeah.

Well, I'm usually pretty cautious. I don't buy frequently. Let's put it that way. As I mentioned, I traded in that Subaru. I had bought it new when my children were young and I was a single parent. So I got to a point where I liked not having a car payment. So I drove and drove and drove that car.

And around 2018 is when I finally, and I was emotionally attached to that car. So, and I finally traded it in in 2018. I did buy another Subaru that I have, but at an interesting point, that was around the time that I came to work for NerdWallet and I worked from home. So that particular car spends a lot of time sitting in my driveway and I will more than likely drive that car for quite a while.

I can attest to the car sitting in the driveway as a remote worker. Saves you a lot of money. Yes. Shannon Bradley, thanks for coming on to answer Tiffany's question and hopefully help someone out there with a similar question. Well, thank you, Elizabeth.

And that's all we have for this episode. Remember, listener, that we're here to answer your money questions. So turn to the nerds and call or text us your questions at 901-730-6373. That's 901-730-NERD. You can also email us at podcast at nerdwallet.com.

Join us next time to hear us answer a listener's question about retirement account prioritization. Follow Smart Money on your favorite podcast app, including Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and iHeartRadio to automatically download new episodes. And here's our brief disclaimer. We

We are not your financial or investment advisors. This nerdy info is provided for general educational and entertainment purposes, and it might not apply to your specific circumstances. This episode was produced by Tess Vigeland and Anna Helhosky. Hilary Georgie helped with editing. Nick Kurisamy mixed our audio. And a big thank you to NerdWallet's editors for all their help.

And with that said, until next time, turn to the nerds.