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cover of episode Speaker Mike Johnson Keeps His Gavel, After Two Flipped GOP Votes

Speaker Mike Johnson Keeps His Gavel, After Two Flipped GOP Votes

2025/1/3
logo of podcast WSJ Opinion: Potomac Watch

WSJ Opinion: Potomac Watch

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Bill McGurn
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Hakeem Jeffries
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Kyle Peterson
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Mene Ukebarua
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Mike Johnson
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Mike Johnson:赢得众议院议长选举,强调人民希望优先考虑"美国优先"的议程。他表示,过去四年两党分治的政府未能解决诸如开放边界、过度监管、通货膨胀和软弱领导等问题,导致美国城市衰败、创新受阻、民众贫困以及国家处于危险境地。 Hakeem Jeffries:呼吁两党合作,摒弃党派之争,为美国人民的利益共同努力。他表示,民主党将努力与共和党寻求在任何议题上达成两党共识。 Kyle Peterson:报道了Mike Johnson在第一轮投票中险胜当选众议院议长,最初有两名共和党议员反对,但在最后一刻改变了投票。他分析了这一结果对共和党内部团结的影响,并讨论了自由核心小组提出的要求。 Bill McGurn:认为Johnson的胜利是共和党的一大胜利,尽管最初出现了一些反对,但大多数党内成员都同意需要采取行动。他指出,只有极少数人阻碍了议程的推进,而大多数党派成员最终达成了共识。 Mene Ukebarua:认为一些共和党人可能不喜欢Johnson的所有行为,但他们认为支持他比冒未知风险更好。她指出,强硬派共和党成员试图向Johnson发出信号,要求他在新一届国会中改变执政方式,并认为共和党内部的分歧依然存在,这可能会影响未来的立法工作。 自由核心小组:在一封公开信中,表达了对Johnson过去15个月领导记录的担忧,并列出了他们对Johnson的要求,包括大幅削减通货膨胀性支出、在达成实际支出削减协议之前不增加联邦借款、充分保障边境安全等等。这封信暗示共和党内部的分裂可能很快就会再次出现,尤其是在处理支出法案和债务上限等立法障碍时。 Kyle Peterson:讨论了自由核心小组的信件,认为这封信是对Johnson的警告,暗示共和党内部的团结可能难以维持。他认为,即使Johnson可能同意自由核心小组的目标,但立法需要妥协,一味固执己见并不能解决问题。 Bill McGurn:同意立法需要妥协,并批评了缺乏替代候选人和议程的做法。他认为,对Johnson的反对是徒劳的,因为没有其他可行的替代方案。 Mene Ukebarua:指出有效的领导者应该为了做认为必要的事情而准备好放弃权力。她认为,Johnson似乎并不执着于权力,这有助于他有效地领导。她还分析了提高罢免议长的门槛对Johnson地位的影响,以及Matt Gaetz的离开对共和党的影响。 Kyle Peterson:讨论了特朗普对Johnson的支持,以及这有助于稳定局势。他分析了特朗普和Johnson之间良好的个人关系和政治上的共同目标,以及特朗普希望避免重蹈覆辙,并认为Johnson是领导其立法议程的最佳人选。 Bill McGurn:强调了Johnson的优势,例如考虑周到、倾听成员意见、是真正的宪法主义者等。他认为,Johnson能够成功,部分原因在于自由核心小组成员可能知道Johnson在实质上站在他们一边,并且Johnson认真倾听并试图顾及他们的担忧。 Mene Ukebarua:总结了Johnson面临的挑战,例如可能需要与民主党合作才能通过关键法案。她指出,在一些主要立法问题上,共和党内部存在共识,这可能有助于Johnson维持团结,但在政府支出问题上,他将面临持续的压力。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why did Speaker Mike Johnson secure a first-ballot victory despite initial dissent?

Two Republican holdouts, Congressman Ralph Norman of South Carolina and Keith Self of Texas, flipped their votes to Johnson at the last minute, giving him the necessary 218 votes. This shift avoided a prolonged voting process and signaled a temporary unity within the GOP, despite underlying tensions.

What demands did the House Freedom Caucus make after Johnson's victory?

The House Freedom Caucus sent a letter demanding significant cuts to inflationary spending, no increase in federal borrowing without real spending cuts, and full border security. They also expressed reservations about Johnson's leadership, signaling potential future conflicts over legislative priorities.

How does the narrow Republican majority in the House impact Johnson's leadership?

The historically narrow Republican majority complicates Johnson's ability to pass legislation, as even a few dissenters can derail bills. This forces Johnson to negotiate with Democrats on must-pass bills, which often leads to concessions that upset conservative members.

What role did President Trump play in Johnson's reelection as Speaker?

President Trump publicly supported Johnson, calling him a 'fine man of great ability' and emphasizing the importance of a unified Republican Party. Trump's endorsement likely influenced some Republicans to back Johnson, especially with the upcoming certification of presidential electors.

How does Johnson's leadership style differ from Kevin McCarthy's?

Johnson avoids making side deals or concessions in exchange for votes, a strategy that contrasts with McCarthy's approach. Johnson also emphasizes listening to his caucus and maintaining a free hand in leadership, which has helped him manage dissent more effectively.

What challenges does Johnson face in maintaining GOP unity?

Johnson must navigate deep divisions within the GOP, particularly over spending and debt limit bills. The Freedom Caucus's demands and the narrow majority mean he will likely need Democratic support for must-pass legislation, which could alienate conservative members.

Why did the House GOP raise the threshold for a motion to vacate the Speaker's chair?

The threshold was raised from one member to nine to prevent a single dissenter from destabilizing leadership, as happened with Kevin McCarthy. This change aims to provide Johnson with more stability and reduce the risk of internal chaos.

What legislative priorities do Republicans agree on despite internal divisions?

Republicans are largely united on border security and energy policy, with previous legislation like H.R. 1.0 and H.R. 2 providing a foundation. These areas are expected to be less contentious compared to spending and debt limit bills.

Shownotes Transcript

The House GOP avoids an embarrassing crackup, after two Republicans who initially opposed Speaker Mike Johnson switch their votes to him at the last minute. But the leaders of the Freedom Caucus post a letter afterward with a list of demands, suggesting that Republican disunity could return as soon as the House tries to pass a significant bill on spending or the debt.

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