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As Donald Trump reaches the symbolic milestone of 100 days in his second term, how's it going so far? His opening weeks have been marked by frenetic activity at home and abroad. How much is he accomplishing and what are the voters who reelected him think about?
100 Days of Donald Trump 2.0. That's our subject today on Potomac Watch. I'm Paul Gigo, the editor of the Wall Street Journal editorial page, and I'm here with two colleagues, Barton Swaim and Kim Strassel. Thank you both for joining today. So, Barton, let's start with you. The path to a successful presidency is often difficult.
in the first 100 days or at least the path set by early decisions that pay off later. How's Trump doing on that score? Well, you know, a number of us on the page put together a symposium for the paper and tried to sum up the first 100 days in
And I was thinking like 150 words. It's impossible. There's 150 things. You get one word each. Yeah, it was just absolutely impossible. I went to 300 and that was straining it.
But in my mind, there are some bad things and good things to state the obvious. And as I was trying to think it through, it seems to me that many of the bad things, I think it's fair to say, will not outlast the Trump presidency. Forgive me for the optimism here. I'm going to give you an optimistic take here. But I don't think the tariff's
are going to outlast. I don't think we're going to enter a new tariff era in American history. The market is going to debunk the idea again. And after all, say what you will about Trump, he's turned the Democratic Party into a lot of free traders. Some of his, um,
really aggressive, punitive executive orders, you know, the de facto bills of attainder and going after law firms. It's hard to see anyone but Donald Trump with his particular grievances trying things like this. Now, again, I could be wrong. Being hard on NATO and soft on Russia, at least rhetorically,
Assuming J.D. Vance doesn't become one of the very few vice presidents to win the presidency at the end of his term, I think that attitude could end up being a historical fluke as well. Well, of course, the thing is, Barton, and I'd ask him to follow up on this, Barton's point is that these things will not go beyond the Trump administration.
We still have nearly four years. So I know that we're long run optimists around here. But what do you think about just how the seeds have been planted for this presidency in the first 100 days? So I'm actually hoping the Trump administration, here comes the optimism. I'm probably needlessly hopeful in this regard that maybe the Trump administration is
uses this 100-day mark to just take a breath and look at what it's been doing. Because the way I would sum up the first 100 days is the administration came in with a lot of good ideas. And I think things that Americans were happy to see. The government reform effort, which you have seen with Doge.
In particular, trying to impose more accountability via civil service reform, I think, is a popular idea for Americans who feel as though Washington had just become lethargic, that no one had really tackled, looked under that hood for a long time.
deregulation is something small businesses and Americans generally applaud. The energy agenda to try to turn the United States into the global energy powerhouse, the border, and Trump's efforts to slow those numbers, which he has largely succeeded in. I think
The worry is that we got a little bit too much exuberance and things started to go overboard. Americans like to see the border numbers down to zero, which they essentially are. They get a little bit more concerned when they are seeing deportations, maybe family separations. That started to become part of the news cycle. Now they worry a little bit about, they worry a lot as we can see in polls about
It's one thing to try to address some of America's trade imbalances, something that Trump is very focused on. Another, to impose reciprocal tariffs on every country in the world and watch the stock market melt down and crazy things start happening in bond markets.
He stepped back a bit, walked back that tariffs thing. And I think one question now is if he uses this moment in the coming months to look at some of the polls and pulls back on some of these other things that aren't playing as well with the country. All right, we're going to take a break. And when we come back, we'll talk about tariffs and their impact on his presidency when we come back.
I'm Kim Strassel from the Wall Street Journal editorial board, and you may know me from my weekly column, Fox News, or the Wall Street Journal's daily podcast, Potomac Watch. I'm excited to tell you that my own weekly podcast, All Things with Kim Strassel, has its very own podcast feed, one that I'm really hoping that you'll hit the button and subscribe to.
It's been a great success so far, featuring Trump officials, members of Congress from both the right and the left, pollsters, policy geeks, all of them with news, insights, and debate that you couldn't get from anywhere else. All Things with Kim Strassel, the podcast now in its own feed. You can find it at WSJ.com, Apple, Spotify, and all your favorite podcast outlets.
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Welcome back. I'm Paul Gigo here with the Potomac Watch podcast to the Wall Street Journal opinion pages. And I'm here with Barton Swain and Kim Strassel. Let's listen to the president talk on Sunday about how prices are going and how his tariffs are working. The good news is costs are way down. Groceries are down. Eggs are down. Gasoline is way down. It's all coming down. It's all looking good. The tariffs are strong.
It's taking in a lot of money from tariffs. We are losing a lot.
before I got here. We were losing billions of dollars a day, and now we're doing great, and we haven't even kicked in yet. And eventually, we'll be reducing taxes very substantially for the people of our country because the money is so great coming in from tariffs that I'll be able to reduce taxes to a very large extent and maybe almost completely. Maybe almost completely. I'm pretty confident I will not live to see that day when taxes are ruled out.
The public doesn't quite see it so far the way Donald Trump does if you look at the polls. Now, these are hardly definitive of how this administration will go, but so far, the
The president seems to have taken a hit in his first 100 days. The Fox News poll, which is just emblematic of several surveys, has him at 44% approval rating, which is pretty low for a president this early in a term. Biden was 54%, for example, at this point. Trump himself was 45% in 2017 at 100 days.
Obama and Bush much higher. The economy, though, is the big one that seems to be hurting him. The approval rate for his performance on the economy in that Fox poll, 38%, and only 33% for inflation, and 33% for tariffs. So, Barton, my own view is that
The tariffs, which he has proposed on April 2nd, were so extraordinarily high, essentially taking us from an average of 2.4% average tariff on imported goods to
to now, even with the 90-day pause on his so-called reciprocal tariffs, they're upwards of closer to 24%. That's a huge increase. And we haven't even seen the shock that that's going to make to at least a one-time increase in prices on imported goods and maybe shortages, particularly from China, because essentially at the 145% of tariffs on China and then China's tariffs on us,
of 125 percent, two-way trade is going to shrink dramatically between those two countries. So I think this has the potential to dwarf everything else he's doing. I agree with that. And I will say, you know, the optimistic side again, it was nice to hear him talk about reducing taxes. Apparently, he's not listening to people inside the administration who want to use this opportunity to increase taxes.
I will just add to what you said that you could see this coming if you're going to increase tariffs dramatically in the way that Trump had talked about doing and has in some measure done. You're going to need to do it slowly and patiently to minimize the economic damage. Now, there will be economic damage no matter what, but you're going to have to do it slowly and let the market slowly adjust to a new sort of economic regime.
And one thing we know about Donald Trump is that patience is not one of his virtues. And he likes the use of tariffs because they really force other players, other companies, other countries to have to come to him and look for specific exemptions.
And he likes to use them as a tool, and he likes to use them as a tool like now, today. And so this is not going to work as a long-term sort of economic solution, and it's going to create tremendous economic damage in the medium term.
and I do think that he risks sinking his whole presidency because of it. There does seem to be some recognition, and you alluded to this earlier, Kim, on the part of the president that this isn't going as swimmingly as advertised in that clip.
They paused the tariffs on reciprocal tariffs. He's now floating that he's got big, beautiful negotiations going with multiple nations. I think the Treasury is saying it's about 18. These are countries like Japan, the European Union, UK. The problem with that is that you can't do trade agreements easily unless they're very superficial because these involve complex negotiations over all kinds of different industries and different standards.
You could probably do something fast with the UK if both parties were inclined to because our economies are probably the most similar in the world of any others. But it's going to be very hard for him to do those in 90 days. And meanwhile, Trump is saying, "We're talking to the Chinese. We got something going." The Chinese say, "No, we're not. We're not talking to them." And Xi Jinping and Donald Trump are both beating their chests and saying they don't want to give in first.
So that could really spread out for a long time unless the economic pain becomes pretty intense here in the next month or so. So the good news, he's showing some inclination to move back. The bad news is that he set things in motion.
that are not going to be as easily pulled back as he might think. Yeah, well, they're walking that back a little bit too, Paul. And I would just point out language. I noticed that J.D. Vance, when he was in India this last week, he talked about how they were close to agreeing to a memorandum of understanding. And you heard Trump in his
Time Magazine interview that he did, he was talking about how they were going to have 200 deals, but he acknowledged that essentially there was going to be a broad agreement. Then if they wanted to come back and renegotiate some things later, we're not going to get fully fleshed out trade deals. You probably will get
these memorandums that essentially both sides agree to lower tariff rates to a certain extent on each other. And that then there's an agreement that they work on all these hard and thorny issues over the next couple of years with a goal in mind of where they would like to reach.
And all of this too, Paul, I would just note is a little bit of a sideshow. I mean, great to have these deals. The market may well respond well to some of them being announced and feel a little bit more confident. The big one, as you note, is China. Look, there are thousands, tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands of small businesses around the country that source products from China. Some of them have said that
They would not be able to last more than a couple of months because they cannot easily resource what they need for their continued existence from other countries or here domestically. There's going to need to be some sort of announcement on that.
And that's why I think it is a bit concerning that the two sides are saying two completely different things about where they stand in that regard. But I would say that when he's talking about deals, this is a walk back as well too. And the goal to me seems to be get these memorandums of understanding out, look as though this is done and move on. That to me seems like a good thing if we can get back to some sort of normalization and the administration feels as though it's saved a bit of
I mean, you've got to give him an exit ramp here where he can say he got good deals and saved face. The problem is it runs up against the president's belief that tariffs are in and of themselves a good thing. He really believes it.
And I don't think we'll go below 10% tariffs. I think he's going to keep to that as de minimis standard. And that's even four times higher than the average tariff raised before he came into office and a big, at least one-time increase on goods that are imported.
We're going to take another break. And when we come back, we'll talk about the president and the rule of law and his challenges across a variety of areas where that has been implicated when we come back. The spirit of innovation is deeply ingrained in America, and Google is helping Americans innovate in ways both big and small.
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Welcome back. I'm Paul G. Gove here on Potomac Watch with Kim Strassel and Barton Swain. Let's turn a little bit to a couple other things. Barton, in particular, I wanted to ask you about one of the things that is probably creating the biggest source of controversy for the administration other than tariffs, and that is how he is using the legal system.
both in the immigration issues and whether or not he's abiding by court orders when it comes to a couple of illegal immigrants who've been deported, but also going after the law firms, Democratic-leaning law firms in Washington, cutting deals with them to have them do up to $100 million worth of pro bono work for his priorities. And then other things like withdrawing the security protection for
Mike Pompeo, Brian Hook, and John Bolton. And not only withdrawing their security protection after they've been threatened by Iran, but announcing it publicly, basically saying to the Iranians, yeah, okay, go at it. What do you make of all that? Well, withdrawing the security protections is just stupid.
I'm sorry, that's just stupid. It looks petty and is shameful. The fight with Harvard and Columbia and other universities, as well as the wranglings with the judicial system over immigration, I would put that in the category of chaos versus popularity. I don't know if chaos is quite the right word, but I do envision that some of the executive orders on Harvard and especially the ones on the law firms are
and the individuals with whom Trump has previous problems, those are going to get taken apart by the courts, and it will be a legal setback for him. On the other hand, I don't imagine the public is really taking Harvard's side against the president.
It's an easy target. If we could use this sort of overused term, it's an easy target for a populist. It's the same with other elite universities. You notice he's not going after like the University of Missouri or something, but...
The ones that really suggest privilege and elite status in the public mind. The same is true to a degree with immigration. The way the administration has dealt with the courts has been raucous and in some ways discreditable. However, the public is not likely to use that as an occasion to view the president's efforts unfavorably. He has managed to bring down immigration.
illegal immigration dramatically, as we've noted. And I think in some ways he has a get out of jail free card, or maybe that's the wrong metaphor, a free pass, so to speak, with the public. And in that same category, I would put things like some of the competency issues and chaos with Doge,
Is the public really going to hold him responsible for messing up some civil servant's employment status when what he's doing is reducing waste in government? I doubt it. So it's a question of whether popularity wins out in the medium term versus chaos and incompetence. I think you're right about the...
side of it. The administration in particular, when it comes to deportations, I think views this as a political winner. And it doesn't mind doing essentially a showdown with the courts on it because I think they view that debate as one worth having. The issue for me, I think, the red line, the
that I hope the administration doesn't cross is to outright defy a court order, particularly the Supreme Court, Kim. And I think on that front, there are a couple of signals from the Supreme Court that maybe they're losing patience with the White House, particularly the Justice Department and its assurances.
about how it's behaving in a couple of these cases. And I think that could be potentially dangerous for the president because, as you've written, he is going to need the Supreme Court majority to support all kinds of executive orders and other high priorities that he wants when it comes to the regulatory state.
When it comes to birthright citizenship, the court's going to take that up as soon as May. All of those things. And if the court doesn't really trust the president and the Justice Department to honor agreements and to be honest about its presentation of what it's doing, that could hurt, particularly John Roberts and Amy Coney Barrett. Yeah, this is among my complaints is why they are essentially corrupt.
wasting capital with the Supreme Court on some of these issues and cases that I don't necessarily see an upside for. As noted, as Barton noted, he's done a pretty phenomenal job down at the border. And if we were just taking the poll of Americans on that issue, he'd get very high marks.
where people have begun to get a little traction. Democratic critics has been on the due process and deportation thing. And what's notable is that if the administration truly believes everything it says that it does have,
quite expansive authority legally to engage in deportations. There's absolutely no reason why it wouldn't just be bringing these people back when requested and going through the court process, which would likely lead in the end to their ability to deport some of the individuals that they're seeking to deport.
But in the meantime, by poking the Supreme Court and courts and suggesting that they are not listening, they put at risk some of these much bigger issues, in my mind, that they have teed up coming in front of the court. And they include some of the issues you just mentioned. There's a big case that's headed toward the Supreme Court on a president's authority over what we call independent agencies. They'd like the court to revisit a 100-year-old precedent called Humphrey's executor.
There are court cases rolling on about the extent to which the administration can use grants and funding cuts to demand changes in institutions, that that's an interesting one. At some point, the president may well have a fight over impoundment authorities, his ability to not spend federal funds.
So there's a lot out there that they are going to be looking to the courts to hopefully, they have a big ambition to use, in particular, this 6-3 Supreme Court that Donald Trump helped
helped create to lock in some legal wins for the long term. And I think that they are risking some of that by being needlessly provocative on some cases that are less high stakes. Okay, let's wrap this up for today. But just briefly, I want to get your summary, Barton, and then Kim, too. Do you think that the president is on a path towards success or failure here in the 100 days? Success and failure. Okay.
Can I cop out? Yeah, well, I guess you can. It's hard to believe that some of these measures aren't going to be real long-term wins. Closing the Department of Education, I think the era of open borders is over. The universities realize that things have to change, that status quo isn't sustainable. So I think long-term policy-wise, it's going to be messy getting there, and it might mean a failed presidency.
but there are going to be some long-term policy wins. Kim. The success or failure of this presidency is going to come down to his economic performance probably from now until the end of this year.
And at this point, having decided to move ahead with tariffs and introduced that threatened uncertainty to the economy, a lot of this is going to come down now to whether or not Republicans can pass in through the Senate and the House a tax bill and some other provisions that operate as a countervailing force against a counterweight.
to those tariffs. So there's some really high stakes there. I think as well, some other issues that the administration is pursuing, like energy production, they're going to have to double down and hope that some of those can offset the tariffs damage, because if they cannot get prices down and they cannot get this economy moving and it goes into recession this year, he's going to be blamed for that. And this was a public that elected him largely to turn that around from the Biden time.
It's also a lame duck presidency, recall. You know, he's not going to have a chance to run for reelection, so there will be no measure. And almost all second terms, with the semi-exception of Reagan's, they end badly. Barton, I think I'd take out the semi before Reagan. Because I think winning the Cold War and the historic tax reform, well, were pretty good.
As results go. But I agree with you on second terms more broadly. I can't think of another one that's really been a success in the modern period. I think unless the president walks back significantly, the tariffs, I think he has set in motion events economically and also politically, foreign policy with his influence on allies and the reliability of the United States as an economic and diplomatic partner.
that are going to do some real long-term harm, both across this presidency and longer. So I think much hangs on whether or not he can find an off-ramp to say, I got what I wanted, folks. Great victories, tremendous, and everything's going to be great. Unless he can do that, I think that 38% on the economy could stick around. All right. Thanks, Kim. Thanks, Martin. Thank you all for listening. We're here every day on Potomac Watch. Hope to see you tomorrow.
Okay, let's wrap this up for today. But just briefly, I want to get your summary, Barton and Kim, too. Do you think that the president is on a path towards success or failure here in the 100 days? Success and failure. Can I cop out? Yeah, well, I guess you can. It's hard to believe that some of these measures aren't going to be real long-term wins.
the closing the Department of Education. I think the era of open borders is over. The universities realize that things have to change, that status quo isn't sustainable. So I think long-term policy-wise, it's going to be messy getting there. And it might mean a failed presidency, but there are going to be some long-term policy wins. Kim? The success or failure of this presidency is going to come down to his economic performance, probably from now until the end of this year. And
And at this point, having decided to move ahead with tariffs and introduced that threatened uncertainty to the economy, a lot of this is going to come down now to whether or not Republicans can pass in through the Senate and the House a tax bill and some other provisions that operate as a countervailing force against a counterweight.
to those tariffs. So there's some really high stakes there. I think as well, some other issues that the administration is pursuing like energy production, they're going to have to double down and hope that some of those can offset the tariffs damage because if they cannot get prices down and they cannot get this economy moving and it goes into recession this year, he's going to be blamed for that. And this was a public that elected him largely to turn that around from the Biden time.
It's also a lame duck presidency, recall. You know, he's not going to have a chance to run for reelection, so there will be no measure. And almost all second terms, with the semi-exception of Reagan's, they end badly. Barton, I think I'd take out the semi before Reagan. Because I think winning the Cold War and the historic tax reform, well, were pretty good.
As results go. But I agree with you on second terms more broadly. I can't think of another one that's really been a success in the modern period. I think unless the president walks back significantly, the tariffs, I think he has set in motion events economically and also politically, foreign policy with his influence on allies and the reliability of the United States as an economic and diplomatic partner.
that are going to do some real long-term harm, both across this presidency and longer. So I think much hangs on whether or not he can find an off-ramp to say, I got what I wanted, folks. Great victories, tremendous, and everything's going to be great. Unless he can do that, I think that 38% on the economy could stick around. All right. Thanks, Kim. Thanks, Martin. Thank you all for listening. We're here every day on Potomac Watch. Hope to see you tomorrow.
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