Ukraine's Surprise Drone Operation Hits Russian Bases
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Ukraine makes a daring drone attack on Russian warplanes, including strategic bombers stationed at air bases deep inside Russian territory. What does this operation say about the capabilities of Ukraine's defenders, America's interests in this conflict and the U.S.'s own potential vulnerabilities to drone warfare?

Welcome, I'm Kyle Peterson with The Wall Street Journal. We're joined today by my colleagues, editorial board member Jillian Melcher in London and columnist Kim Strassel.

Operation Spiderweb, as the Ukrainians are calling it, was more than a year in the making. Reportedly, it involved smuggling more than 100 drones into Russian territory and stationing them near Russian air bases, including one in Siberia, far from the front lines of the Ukraine war.

On Sunday, that drone fleet was engaged, and the videos now circulating are quite striking. Russian warplanes parked in a neat little line on the tarmac as they are hit with explosions and begin billowing thick black smoke. Here is Ukraine's President Vladimir Zelensky speaking in Lithuania Monday about the strike. Operation Spiderweb showed that modern war really looks like war.

and why it's so important to stay ahead with technology. All our joint investments in drone production, all our shared battlefield experience, everything we are doing together with our partners, it's making Europe stronger.

Jillian, what an amazing turn of events here. I'm sure that there are details of this strike that are still yet to be revealed and many that will probably not be revealed by the Ukrainians who pulled it off. But what do we know about what they actually did here and how they pulled off this strike on Russian soil? Yeah, this is a pretty remarkable strike. I mean, you mentioned how far some of these hits were.

This is Ukraine striking deep, deep inside of Russian territory in a way that Russia was clearly not prepared for. And then if you start looking at what actually they were able to take out, 41 Russian strategic bombers. They have about 100 of those. So that's a significant portion. They don't make some of those planes anymore. This is about $7 billion in damage inflicted. It's striking at a key portion of Russia's nuclear triad.

So, overall, a big day for Ukraine. And then they're following it up today with a strike on Kerch Bridge, which is connecting Russia to occupied Crimea. So, I think what Ukraine is showing is that it's still got some surprises, still got a lot of fight left in it.

And if I'm looking at Ukrainian memes that are circulating online, they took issue with, you know, that White House meeting where it was asserted that Ukraine doesn't have cards. A couple of aces in its pocket. Kim, I agree that that's part of the importance of this is a strategic victory for Ukraine, showing that it is not defeated, even if Russia is making some grinding gains on the front lines there. Also, it strikes me as putting some pressure on Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin, who now has to worry about his border. If hundreds of drones can be smuggled into Russia and constitute a threat, a potential airstrike on Russian military assets anywhere, maybe inside his country, that is a big problem and will, I think,

captivate some of the Russian military's attention here as it tries to figure out how to solve that problem. Yeah, the word for this attack is actually smart. It's audacious. And that's what makes it kind of fun to read about now when you hear about how they did this. And they put these drones inside these mobile sheds and then loaded them on trucks.

and station them around Ukraine. It's just, that is audacious. According to the president and Ukraine, this was an operation that was 18 months in the making too and planning. So it's been something that they put a lot of thought into, but it's paying off because of how smart it was. I mean, first of all, it was smart to go after these particular bases, not just because of what they knocked

out, as Jillian noted. But precisely because they were so far from Ukraine's borders, Russia, it looks, did not have preparations in place. They were utterly unprepared for this attack and did not have their own air defenses ready to do something when the drones actually struck.

Also smart in that it's going after Russia's greatest advantage to this day that Russia has in this conflict, which is air superiority over Ukraine. And so taking that out, really, it's not just about the number of planes Russia has, but the fact that it's going straight at what their biggest advantage is over Ukraine. Yes, Russia, not only do they now have to worry about their borders and what's coming in, but this also just puts pressure on them for their other interests.

in terms of taking away their capabilities, in terms of other priorities that they have other than Ukraine, right? They have to care about Japan on their other front. They have to care about some of their other adversaries in the world. They are now down for the count in terms of their assets to do all of that. And then just to reinforce what Jillian said, this could not have come at a smarter time or a better time in terms of the negotiations that are going on. Negotiations, I put quote marks around that with Russia.

And a certain lack of resolve on behalf of this new administration, their argument has been Ukraine is going to lose this. It's just a question of when. Demonstrating that they can do this, potentially changing the way the trajectory of the war looks, I think puts not only does it very much, it will immediately change.

strengthen, I think, European backing of the Ukraine venture because they will see, you know, the wisdom of the money that they've put into that already. But I think it puts enormous pressure on the Trump administration to understand that Ukraine has a lot of opportunity here and that there is an American interest to seeing Russia diminished as well in Ukraine winning this fight. Hang tight. We'll be right back in a moment.

Welcome back.

Jillian, how much difference do you think the disabling of these Russian planes can have on the front lines? I mean, I grant that it is an enormous headache and distraction for the Kremlin and every soldier that has to be diverted to shore up

Base defense of Russian assets in the Russian Far East, for example, is a soldier who is not being sent to Ukraine. Every dollar that the Putin government is spending to try to beef up the security checkpoints at its border to work on this smuggling problem is a dollar that it is not spending on drones, its own drones, its own tanks and other military hardware.

But are these strategic bombers assets that were being used against Ukraine? I mean, I'm seeing some reports that they have been used at launching cruise missiles. And so if the Ukrainians have taken out as many of them as they are claiming in this strike, that that would be one way that it could actually affect what is happening on the ground on the front lines. Yeah. So there are a couple effects of this. I think one of them is that Russia has really used the threat of it's a nuclear power to

to try to intimidate the West. And this is a strike on its nuclear triad. This is limiting its ability to do nuclear saber rattling. And that's important. I think it's also much like the Ukrainian Kursk operation, calling Russia's bluff, saying, we did this thing. The West has been really afraid of escalation. But look, we took out these planes and Russia's not responding in a nuclear way. So that's one significant effect here.

You're absolutely right that some of these planes were used for cruise missiles. It's not going to have a major effect right now on the front line, but that's okay because Russia hasn't been focused only on the front line. It's been straightened deep into Ukraine, western cities, cities that are very far from the front.

trying to terrorize civilians with strikes that combine drones and cruise missiles and ballistic missiles. And a lot of them have killed families who are sleeping in their beds. You know, taking out that cruise missile threat is an important thing to do. And it's going to curb Russia's ability to do cruise missile strikes in the short term. I think another effect here, and this may actually be something that we see on the front line, is that Russia has assumed that it can keep these planes parked deep in its territory and

And now it's going to have to start thinking about air defense for them. We've already seen Russian air defenses strained in some places, haven't performed super well around the naval bases in Crimea. And this is going to strain those resources even further. It might make Russia have to make some tough choices. You know, I really think that's one way that Ukraine can stress Russia. It's not about one capability or another.

It's about creating problems for Russia that compound in a way that strains resources, limit its ability to attack Ukraine. So useful thing overall to do. Kim, what's your view of how this strike might affect the thinking in Washington and in the White House? A lot of skeptics within the Trump administration of aid efforts.

to Ukraine. J.D. Vance, vice president, being maybe a key example, he's kind of made the argument that what is the U.S. getting for its money here? Why would the U.S. want to be an ally of Ukraine? Is Ukraine a net negative if it were to be added to NATO, for example? I mean, a couple of thoughts here. One is, first of all, just the damaging effect

of a significant chunk of Russia's strategic bombers in its nuclear arsenal that is threatening not only Ukraine, but has held over Europe, held over the United States. It seems like that is in the United States' interest. And two, just the experience that the Ukrainians have built up over the course of this war in

drone warfare and their creativity in the way that they have gone about that seems like they may have some lessons to share with the United States. Well, your point about what our strategic interest is, is the most important one. Because unfortunately, in Washington right now, we have a bunch of nonsense

coming out of the mouths of what I guess I would call national conservatives. And their interest has been in creating moral equivalence somehow or immoral equivalence between Russia and Ukraine, that they're both as bad as each other. And they both played a role in creating this conflict. That's simply not true. Russia was the aggressor here. It wants nothing more than to take over, reconstitute Russia.

mother Russia put back together some of what used to exist in the former Soviet Republic and own all that territory again. And it unprovoked has for the past 10 years been encroaching on Ukraine, including creating this conflict, the first major land war we have seen in Europe since World War II. So this is entirely on Russia.

But let's just put that aside. Let's say even if you want to go down that road and your argument is, oh, well, they both had a role in this. And why are we picking a side? And why are we spending this money? The answer to that is that if you look at both of those players, there is one that is clearly our adversary that wants to do us damage, that is working with our other adversaries across the world. That would be Russia. And one that has put out the hand of peace to us and asked for our assistance.

Anything that diminishes our adversary, and that would be Russia in this case, ought to be something that we are supporting, especially if it is of minimal cost to us. I mean, no, this hasn't been of no cost whatsoever. But what I mean by that is in terms of we are not sending our own servicemen over there. We are not spending our own personnel on the battlefield. And yet,

As Jillian just said, with this one drone strike, we have wiped out maybe, what, 40% of Russia's strategic bombers and some of its surveillance aircrafts. That is nothing but in the United States' benefit. So I would argue that if that can become the discussion in Washington...

coupled with a number of senators who are now demanding we do more to punish Russia for its aggression with, for instance, sanctions on it and the use of its oil. That is an active discussion in D.C. at the moment. I think this strengthens the hands of those who want to see our continued support for the Ukraine. And hopefully that message of simple, I mean, if you want to go there, of real politic and the benefit

bit of engaging with Ukraine to diminish Russia's ability to do meddlesome things to us around the world. That is a very strong argument in itself. Hang tight. We'll be right back in a moment. The spirit of innovation is deeply ingrained in America, and Google is helping Americans innovate in ways both big and small.

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Welcome back.

parked in neat little lines in a similar sort of fashion, B-52s, for example. And honestly, some of those air bases are not that far from neighborhoods, populated areas over the fence line. And so, Jillian, I don't know what the exact details are of the U.S. development of anti-drone technologies, but you would hope that the Pentagon is waking up this week and thinking more about

what is in the U.S. arsenal that could stop something like what Ukraine did and how fast that stuff can be deployed. Yeah, I mean, Vladimir Putin is having a really bad week

And we don't want to have a similar bad week. We're not just talking about U.S. military vulnerabilities, although I think that's something that's really important to pay attention to. The U.S. has been developing electronic warfare to try to jam some of these drones. There have been some developments with lasers. But the thing to keep in mind here is that these drones are really, really cheap, and you can throw a lot of them at a target.

and it only takes one of them getting through to cause a lot of damage. And so I'd for sure be worried about U.S. planes, but I'd also be worried about U.S. critical infrastructure, energy infrastructure, communications infrastructure. And it's not just state actors like Russia or

potentially China that could be involved in doing something like this. There's a real concern that terror groups could use drones to try to target American civilians. So I think this is a wake-up call that we're in a new era of threats. And here, Ukraine offers actually a really good example. They are in a cat and mouse game with Russia on technological development around drones. They're doing some really interesting, innovative things. I mean, really,

When I've been in Kiev, I've been meeting with some of those Ukrainian military leaders, and they're focusing on private-public partnerships to accelerate drone production, make sure that this is a thing where if their adversary pushes ahead and develops in a day, on day two, they can meet it. And that's what the United States needs to be thinking about as it looks at this threat. Kim, it does suggest that the next conflict that the United States gets involved in, if and when that comes, would look significantly different

than the wars that Americans have studied of the past. And it might not be just an example of a conflict that takes abroad with a U.S. expeditionary force because of the ease and the ability of adversaries to get these cheap and small things

drone-based weapons in a place where they could maybe threaten American assets, as Jillian is laying out, not even only military assets, but infrastructure, electricity. I mean, there's a lot of havoc that an adversary can apparently do at a pretty low cost. Yeah, you know, to build on Jillian's point about a wake-up call, I would take that further. People should be splashing cold water all over their faces and downing 10 cups of

coffee. I mean, in Washington right now and running around somewhat freaking out because we're talking about this in the context of what happened to Russia. But this really is a moment where if you didn't notice this was happening already, like people, it's really happening. And

The whole world has changed in terms of warfare. And if you look all through history, whether it's modern or ancient, what you see are moments in time when military leaders or armies looked at their adversaries and they realized a complacency or a weakness. They often paired it with some sort of technological advance.

And then you had a huge moment where things shifted. Now, the things that have for the past 20 years kept most of our policymakers up at night are terrorism and what kind of horrible things that terrorists might think of doing, because those terrorists tend not to operate within the usual rules of warfare anyway. And so they are the biggest wild cards, as it were. And, you know, no one would have ever thought until

9-11 that somebody would be so craven as to not just kill thousands of people or hundreds of people on airline carriers, but use them to bring down buildings. So those are the things that have scared us. But we need to be thinking about the way this is changing. And this is the moment where we do. And I have to be honest with you, there is nothing in Washington from what I have watched that indicates that we have been meditating on this and that we are ahead of the game. We are not.

I'll give you an example as proof. Just in the past year, we've been having a discussion about how we really need, as part of our defense budget, to be making a lot cheaper missiles that we use to shoot down drones because we're currently firing off million-dollar missiles against Houthi drones.

In that conflict there. So we are just blowing money out of the door for it. It would be like spending a million dollars to take down a $10 drone, essentially. And it's a waste of money. And it just shows that we weren't ready when that conflict came. We didn't know what we were doing. We're now catching up.

And I am very worried that that is where we are as well in terms of our own defenses, where our B-2 bombers are sitting, if any of them are under hardened hangars that have an air defense around them. I don't think we have any of that. Washington should be meditating on this day and night, and we should be having very serious discussions, not just about the level of our military budget and what we're going to do to catch up, but where that money is going and other places where we can save it because the world is changing.

changing in military warfare. You know, Kim, I'll just add to that. We would talk about what is the U.S. interest in Ukraine.

And there are two countries that are really excelling right now in drones, and that is Russia and Ukraine. When I'm talking to Ukrainian military folks and particularly people who are involved in just the cutting edge technology, one of the things that I'm hearing is this is an area where our technology is superior to what the United States has. And we really want to share it with you. We want to work with you on this.

So that's just another reason why the U.S. needs to support Ukraine, but also Ukraine contributes to Western security. On the point about hardened hangars, this is a few lines from a January paper from the Hudson Institute on hardening U.S. air bases. It says...

As the U.S. Air Force prepares to build facilities for its new B-21 bomber fleet, it does not plan on building hardened aircraft shelters. Instead, it is evaluating prototype environmental protection shelters akin to sunshades that shield the bombers from the elements but leave them exposed to threats, including lethal UAVs. It says that building hardened hangars would cost approximately $30 million dollars.

And the B-21 bombers are about $600 million. So, Jillian, I throw that out there, and then I also will build on the point that Kim is making. It does seem to me that this kind of change in technology does or should, to my mind, strengthen the hand of people in the House and the Senate, defense hawks who are making the argument that the U.S. has to invest more

in its defense capabilities. I mean, there are many things that are on the table in the reconciliation bill that Republicans are trying to pass. And there's always a tension and a growing tension between guns and butter, to use the old phrase. But it does seem like the U.S. is entering a period where there are more peer or near peer adversaries than there have been in a long time and threats that the U.S. has not faced in the past.

in a long time. And to my mind, it seems like Congress should take account for that when they were sitting up on Capitol Hill trying to figure out how to spend the tax money. And a U.S. military buildup is a decision that can pay dividends in the future. Yeah, you're absolutely right on that. I mean, I think that there's been a reluctance to spend more on the military, but the threat environment right now is really scary. I mean, we're talking about state adversaries, but with drone warfare, you don't need a state adversary. There are

horrifying scenarios where you could have terror attacks targeting civilian targets, a concert, a sports stadium. That's just one of them. So, you know, I think that when we're talking about the U.S. military aviation capability,

Right now, Vladimir Putin is sitting there and he's going to be asking somebody with a big frown on his face, why didn't we have this hardened? And I think that U.S. lawmakers don't want to be in the position where they could have spent a little bit on a hanger to save a ton of damage to U.S. planes. Thank you, Jillian and Kim. Thank you all for listening. You can email us

at pwpodcast at wsj.com. If you like the show, please hit that subscribe button. And we'll be back tomorrow with another edition of Potomac Watch. The spirit of innovation is deeply ingrained in America. And Google is helping Americans innovate in ways both big and small.

The Air Force Research Laboratory is partnering with Google Cloud, using AI to accelerate defense research for air, space, and cyberspace forces. This is a new era of American innovation. Find out more at g.co slash American innovation.