Lars Tvede wrote 'Supertrends' to articulate his vision of the future, driven by his roles as an investor and entrepreneur. He wanted to explore technological advancements and their potential to lead to a future of hyper-abundance, addressing the complexities of understanding future trends in technology and innovation.
AI and fusion technology, previously perceived as perpetually '20 years away,' are now becoming tangible due to significant advancements. Lars Tvede highlights that these technologies are evolving faster than expected, with fusion potentially providing an infinite, clean energy solution by 2035-2045, and AI demonstrating unprecedented creative and computational capabilities.
Ted Chiang argues that AI cannot create art because art involves making meaningful choices driven by intention. While AI can generate content, it lacks the ability to imbue its creations with purpose or emotional depth, which are essential components of artistic expression.
AI, particularly AlphaGo and AlphaZero, has revolutionized competitive Go by surpassing human players and introducing strategies that were previously incomprehensible. This has led to professional players adapting their techniques to mimic AI, but it has also reduced the game's traditional charm as human intuition becomes less relevant.
Anti-aging research could enable humans to slow or even reverse aging, potentially extending lifespans to 120-150 years. This advancement may lead to societal shifts, such as increased focus on health and longevity, but also raises concerns about overpopulation and the ethical implications of significantly altering natural aging processes.
The European startup ecosystem, while vibrant in cities like Stockholm, Paris, and London, faces challenges in securing large-scale investments compared to Silicon Valley. European startups often struggle to attract funding for growth stages, leading many to relocate to the U.S. for access to larger capital pools.
Personal AI can act as a tailored assistant, helping individuals discover their talents, passions, and optimal life paths. It can provide guidance in areas like health, education, and creativity, enabling people to explore their potential more effectively and make informed decisions about their personal and professional lives.
Our guest for this episode is Lars Tvede, entrepreneur, investor, and author. His book Supertrends is available in Chinese: 《逃不开的大势》. We met in Shanghai, to discuss his book and technology trends. 本期嘉宾:拉斯·特维德(Lars Tvede),知名投资人、企业家。著有畅销书《逃不开的经济周期》、《金融心理学》、《逃不开的大势》等作品,中信出版社出版。 bookmarks: 00:49 - motivation for the book Supertrends. Innovation and technology progress leading to a future of hyper-abundance. 14:25 - AI and fusion technology have always been "20 years away". What's different this time. 21:12 - Ted Chiang's argument that AI cannot create art. The concept of "self-play". 31:03 - importance of meaning and intention in artistic expression. Can AI possess feelings and consciousness? Embodied experiences. 37:39 - recent impact of AI on competitive board game playing. The potential of personal AI to enhance human experiences, helping individuals discover their talents and passions. 45:51 - impact of AI on human agency and decision-making. The joy of learning and the importance of making mistakes in personal growth. The dual nature of technology, which can both empower and lead to complacency. 51:18 - the evolving startup scene in Europe. Contrasting the European startup landscape with Silicon Valley. Challenges in securing large investments for growth stage European startups. 53:56 - the emerging field of anti-aging research. Humans may soon have access to treatments that can slow or even reverse aging. Potential societal implications and safety concerns associated with these advancements. 00:49 - 《逃不开的大势》创作动机。创新和技术进步将带来物质极大丰富的未来。 14:25 - 人工智能和核聚变在过去一直是遥不可及的技术。这次有什么不同。 21:12 - Ted Chiang 观点:人工智能无法创造艺术。“自我对弈”概念。 31:03 - 艺术创作中,意义和意图 (meaning and intention) 的重要性。人工智能能否拥有情感和意识?拥有物理身体的体验。 37:39 - 近期人工智能对竞技棋类游戏的影响。个人人工智能 (personal AI) 增强人类体验的潜力,帮助个人发现自己的才能和激情。 45:51 - 人工智能对人类自主性和决策的影响。学习的乐趣和犯错在个人成长中的重要性。技术既能赋予能力也可能导致失去努力动力。 51:18 - 欧洲初创企业生态。欧洲创业与硅谷的不同。欧洲成长型初创企业融资的挑战。 53:56 - 新兴的抗衰老研究领域。人类可能很快能够使用延缓甚至逆转衰老的方法。这些进步可能带来的社会影响和安全问题。
Links: Lars Tvede, Supertrends《逃不开的大势》 Ted Chiang, "Why AI isn't going to make art"