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cover of episode 874: How AI is Transforming Baseball (with Lessons For All of Us)

874: How AI is Transforming Baseball (with Lessons For All of Us)

2025/3/28
logo of podcast Super Data Science: ML & AI Podcast with Jon Krohn

Super Data Science: ML & AI Podcast with Jon Krohn

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Jon Krohn: 我将讨论人工智能如何改变棒球运动,以及这项运动的经验能为其他行业带来哪些启示。棒球一直以来都是一项与数据密切相关的运动,几十年来,球队一直依赖于击球率和自责分率等统计数据来获得优势。但近年来,人工智能将棒球数据分析提升到了一个新的高度。我们将探讨人工智能如何彻底改变棒球,从球探和球员表现到比赛策略,甚至球迷体验,以及这一切对体育和其他行业(包括你的行业)的未来意味着什么。 为了更好地理解人工智能的影响,我们可以回顾一下“钱球”时代。在21世纪初,奥克兰运动家棒球队利用数据分析识别被低估的球员,并在预算紧张的情况下组建了一支具有竞争力的球队。这种由美国棒球作家、历史学家和统计学家比尔·詹姆斯开创的“钱球”方法,由迈克尔·刘易斯在其畅销书《钱球》中推广,后来被改编成一部由布拉德·皮特主演的热门电影。这种方法证明,客观的数据驱动决策可以胜过老式的直觉,从而确定哪些球员最适合你的球队。快进到今天,棒球中的数据分析不再是一个古怪的实验,而是每个美国职业棒球大联盟球队的标准做法。每个大联盟球队现在都聘请了数据科学家,并且管理部门将分析视为一场军备竞赛。 这些分析的数据在数量和细节上都呈爆炸式增长。2015年,美国职业棒球大联盟引入了Statcast系统,该系统在每个棒球场都安装了高速摄像机和雷达,可以追踪每次投球、挥杆和接球的轨迹。Statcast系统每场比赛产生惊人的7TB数据,捕捉从球的旋转速度到外野手的精确移动等所有信息。仅靠人工分析人员不可能筛选每场比赛7TB的数据洪流,而这就是人工智能大放异彩的地方。 正如本播客的大多数听众所知,机器学习算法擅长处理海量数据,发现人类在这些信息海洋中难以察觉的模式和洞见。换句话说,利用人工智能来理解所有这些数据的球队获得了竞争优势,而那些没有利用人工智能的球队则面临落后的风险。 人工智能改变美国职业棒球大联盟的一个主要方式是使球探和球员分析更加复杂和高效。传统上,球探依赖于雷达枪和直觉,通常关注一些重要的数字,例如投手自责分率或击球手的击球率。现在,球队将各种球员数据(大学和低级别联赛的统计数据、生物力学测量数据,甚至比赛风格的视频分析)输入机器学习模型,以预测年轻球员在大联盟中的表现。这些模型考虑了人类可能忽略的数十个特征。例如,人工智能模型不会只关注本垒打或打点,还会考虑击球手的出球速度和发射角(即球离开球棒的速度和角度),或者投手的每种球路的旋转速度等细微的指标。加入这些现代指标极大地提高了绩效预测的准确性。 人工智能驱动的球探可以发现隐藏的瑰宝。也许某个新秀的击球率不高,但数据显示他总是能大力击球。他的出球速度很高。这是一个潜在成功的迹象,而旧的统计数据可能会掩盖这一点。通过识别历史球员数据中的模式,机器学习模型可以找到传统球探低估的球员。这种数据驱动的方法帮助推动了“钱球”时代,而今天的人工智能工具则将其提升到了另一个层次。 除了识别人才之外,棒球队还在利用人工智能来定制球员发展计划。人工智能系统分析球员的优势和劣势,并为每个球员推荐个性化的训练计划。例如,如果对击球手挥杆的分析显示他难以应对高位快速球,教练可以根据人工智能的反馈设计练习来纠正这一点。如果投手的力学数据显示他的曲线球的投球角度异常,人工智能系统可以标记出来,防止小问题变成大缺陷。简而言之,人工智能正在帮助球队发现和培养人才,其决策比以往任何时候都更有数据支持。 人工智能的影响也延伸到了教练席和场上的决策。棒球一直是一项策略性很强的运动,经理们需要决定何时换投手、如何安排阵容、在哪里安排外野手。过去,这些决定是由经验、直觉和基本统计数据指导的。如今,它们越来越受到预测分析的影响。球队利用人工智能模拟无数的假设情景和比赛对阵,在比赛之前和期间。 想知道在第七局对阵特定击球手的最佳投手是谁?人工智能模型可以分析多年来类似对阵的数据,包括该击球手如何处理风格相似的投手、天气、球场尺寸等。然后它会给出概率答案,并找到针对特定场景的最佳投手或击球手。现在,经理们在咨询胜率表和实时模型预测时,就像在咨询他们的阵容卡一样频繁。一份分析报告中的一个例子描述了如何利用人工智能根据投手的统计数据和当前状态来预测特定投手与击球手对决的结果,这在十年前或二十年前听起来像是科幻小说,但现在却可以实时地在经理们手中的平板电脑上随时查阅。 防守策略也因数据而发生了彻底改变。近年来,由于喷雾图数据,球队开始采用激进的防守转换,例如将内野手移到一边以应对击球手。人工智能则更进一步。通过分析大量关于每个球落地位置的数据,一些球队利用深度学习优化了外野手的站位,这是人类从未尝试过的方法。 这种人工智能驱动的策略非常有效,以至于美国职业棒球大联盟制定了新的规则来限制极端的转换。但是,利用数据更有效地安排球员的位置并不会消失。相反,它会不断发展,变得更加细致入微。所有这些人工智能工具都不会取代经理和教练。相反,它们增强了他们的能力。 最优秀的球队将人类直觉与机器预测相结合。教练们仍然会考虑球员的心理和当日的因素,但他们现在拥有丰富的分析见解来支持或有时质疑他们的直觉。现在,经常可以看到球员和教练在比赛中看着iPad,研究对手的最新分析数据。棒球实际上已经获得了一个高科技的副驾驶。人工智能实时处理数据,而人类做出最终决定。 当这些决定是在更好的信息基础上做出的时,获胜的几率就会提高。除了所有这些机器学习驱动的人工智能进步对教练和球员的影响之外,人工智能还在丰富球迷的观赛体验。如果你最近看过棒球转播或查看过体育应用程序上的统计数据,你可能已经看到了人工智能的痕迹。例如,可以在屏幕上显示胜率图,以实时显示每支球队的获胜几率。每次得分或出局时,这些概率都会根据在数千场比赛中训练的机器学习模型进行更新。这为球迷增加了背景和兴奋感,将抽象的数据变成了引人入胜的故事。同样, 诸如接球概率(外野手接住特定飞球的可能性)之类的先进指标是使用球的轨迹和外野手速度的分析计算出来的,然后在重播中显示出来,以说明一场比赛的难度。就在几年前,比赛中还无法获得这些见解。现在,它们已成为标准评论的一部分,让球迷更深入地了解所展示的技能。甚至比赛规则也感受到了人工智能的影响。美国职业棒球大联盟一直在试验自动球罢系统,这实际上是一个机器人裁判,它使用人工智能和视觉技术来判决球和罢,而不是依赖于人类,毕竟人类是人,所以会犯错。 在2025年的春季训练期间,美国职业棒球大联盟允许球员挑战人类裁判的判罚,并让自动系统进行裁决,该系统收到了大部分正面评价。虽然纯粹主义者会争论失去一些人的因素,但许多球迷和球员都欢迎人工智能为裁判工作带来的稳定性和公平性。这是人工智能如何在不改变其核心内容的情况下增强比赛的另一个例子。通过确保判罚准确无误,关注点仍然集中在球员的技能上。 在棒球场之外,棒球的人工智能发展为我们所有人带来了鼓舞人心的信息,因为我们可以利用它在任何行业中取得象征性的成功。这是一项根植于传统和直觉的运动,但它却拥抱数据和人工智能来获得竞争优势,其结果不言而喻。 对于人工智能专业人士来说,最大的收获是,任何领域,无论多么传统,都可以通过数据驱动的方法进行转型。如果美国最古老的主要运动项目能够利用数据和机器学习模型重塑自我,那么金融、医疗保健、制造业、零售业等行业也可以做到同样的事情。关键在于将专家多年积累的领域专业知识、人类直觉和经验与人工智能的强大功能相结合,人工智能能够处理大量数据并发现隐藏的模式。在棒球中,最能将球探智慧与算法分析相结合的球队成为了冠军。在商业领域,同样将行业专业知识与人工智能见解相结合的组织将胜过竞争对手。 棒球的另一个教训是开放心态和适应能力的重要性。人工智能的早期采用者获得了巨大的优势,直到其他人赶上来。我们在每个行业都看到了同样的情况。那些利用人工智能进行创新的人可以领先一步,而那些抵制变革的人则面临落后的风险。最终,人工智能是一种扩展人类能力的工具。它不会取代棒球中的教练、球员或经理。它只是用更好的信息来增强他们的决策。 这同样适用于其他领域。在可预见的未来,人工智能不会取代产品经理、医生或供应链规划人员,但它将为他们提供见解,让他们做出更明智的决定。总之,棒球在人工智能方面的经验表明,拥抱技术如何在保持企业核心的同时提升绩效。球场上的比赛仍然是棒球,人类运动员在竞争,但它是由指导决策的无形智能层增强的。同样,任何行业都可以保持其人类核心,同时利用人工智能获得最佳结果。作为人工智能专业人士,我们应该鼓励我们的组织向棒球学习,尝试使用数据,信任分析结果,创建人工智能驱动的功能原型,保持开放的心态以应对变化,并不断迭代。这就是如何在你的行业中利用人工智能取得成功的秘诀,通过将人类和机器的最佳方面结合起来,推动创新和成功。

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This is episode number 874 on how AI is transforming the sport of baseball. Welcome back to the Super Data Science Podcast. I'm your host, Jon Krohn. Let's start off with some recent reviews of the show. The first one's an Apple Podcasts review from Remnasa, someone, username Remnasa, who says that they've been listening to the Super Data Science Podcast for a couple of years now and that the content is always fascinating. I'm glad you feel that way.

They say that the show is sometimes a bit over their head, but you can bet that they're looking at the information and learning with every episode. That's super cool. It sounds like they're also a subscriber to the related company, superdatascience.com, that has a learning platform. They say that they like the site, so presumably that's what they're talking about. And our second review here, also an Apple Podcasts review, it comes from saleatx.com.

who says that this podcast is a fantastic way to keep up with the world of AI and the people who work in the industry. The guests are spot on and always interesting. That's super cool. Thanks to Ram Nasa and Sail ATX for all the recent ratings and feedback on Apple Podcasts. Whatever podcasting platform you use, I greatly appreciate you sharing

you giving reviews and having likes and comments on our YouTube videos.

I brought this up maybe a month or two ago, but as a bit of friendly competition, regular listeners may know that I've guest co-hosted another excellent podcast called Last Week in AI half a dozen times. And both regular hosts of that show, Andre and Jeremy, have been my guests on the Super Data Science Podcast. Well, despite their show being many years younger than the Super Data Science Podcast, they are now closing in on us in terms of number of Apple podcast ratings.

They always make a shout-out at the beginning of episodes. And so I'd like to try to stay ahead of them. At the time of recording...

We have 287 ratings in the U S and they're at 264. That means yeah. Relative to the last time I checked, they're closing the gap on us. So help us stay ahead of Andre and Jeremy by heading to your podcast app and rating the super data science podcast. I also, I recently realized that I only see ratings, uh, in reviews in the U S cause that's where my, uh, Apple podcast is set up. And so my apologies, if I'm missing reviews in other countries, uh,

I'm not ignoring you on purpose. I just don't see your reviews. So I don't know if there's some way, but all the, obviously the ratings and reviews in any country end up being helpful. So thank you for that. If,

You leave written feedback and I see it like if it's in the US Apple podcast platform. I'll be sure to read your feedback on air like I did today. All right. On to the heart of today's episode on fun applications of AI to sports, specifically baseball. Baseball has always been a game of numbers. For decades, teams have poured over stats like batting averages and a statistic in baseball called earned run averages.

So teams have always poured over stats like those to gain an edge. But in recent years, artificial intelligence has taken baseball analytics to new heights. In today's episode, we'll explore how AI is revolutionizing baseball from scouting and player performance to in-game strategy and even the fan experience and what all that means for the future of sports as well as other industries, including whatever yours is.

To appreciate AI's impact, it helps to recall the Moneyball era. In the early 2000s, the Oakland Athletics Baseball Club famously used data analytics to identify undervalued players and field a competitive team on a very tight budget. That Moneyball approach, pioneered by the American baseball writer, historian, and statistician Bill James, was made famous by Michael Lewis in his best-selling book Moneyball and was later turned into a popular film starring Brad Pitt. And this approach...

proved that objective data-driven decisions could beat old-school intuition on who the best players to acquire for your team are. Fast forward to today, data analytics in baseball is no longer a quirky experiment, but it's standard practice across every team in Major League Baseball. Every MLB team, the major professional league in the US, now employs data scientists and front offices treat analytics like an arms race.

The data for such analytics have exploded in both volume and in detail. In 2015, Major League Baseball introduced StatCast, a system of high-speed cameras and radar in every ballpark that tracks the trajectory of every pitch, swing, and catch. StatCast generates an astonishing 7 terabytes of data per game per

capturing everything from a pitch's spin rate to a fielder's exact movement. Human analysts alone can't possibly sift through a firehose of seven terabytes of data per game, and this is where AI shines.

As most listeners to this podcast are surely aware, machine learning algorithms thrive on large volumes of data, finding patterns and insights that humans would miss in these mountains of information. In other words, teams that leverage AI to make sense of all these data gain a competitive edge, while those that don't risk falling behind.

One major way AI is transforming Major League Baseball is by making scouting and player analysis far more sophisticated. Traditionally, scouts relied on radar guns and gut instinct, often focusing on a few headline numbers, for example, a pitcher's earned runs average or a hitter's batting average.

Now, teams feed machine learning models a vast array of player data, college and minor league stats, biomechanical measurements, even video analysis of playing style to project how young players might perform in the majors. These models consider dozens of features that a human might overlook. For example, instead of just looking at home runs or RBIs, an AI model will factor in nuanced metrics like a batter's exit velocity and launch angle, which means how fast and at what angle the ball comes off the bat, or

or a pitcher's spin rate on each type of pitch. Incorporating these modern metrics dramatically improves the accuracy of performance projections.

AI-driven scouting can unearth hidden gems. Perhaps a prospect doesn't have a high batting average, but the data show he consistently hits the ball hard. He has a high exit velocity. This is a sign of potential success that old stats might mask. By recognizing patterns in historical player data, machine learning models can find players who were undervalued by traditional scouting. This data-driven approach is what helped fuel the Moneyball era with simpler stats, and today's AI tools take it to another level.

In addition to identifying talent, baseball teams are leveraging AI to tailor player development. AI systems analyze a player's strengths and weaknesses and suggest personalized training programs for each individual. For instance, if an analysis of a hitter's swing reveals he struggles with high fastballs, coaches can design drills informed by AI feedback to correct that. If a pitcher's mechanics data show an odd arm angle on his curveball, an AI system can flag it and prevent a small issue from becoming a major flaw. In short,

AI is helping teams both find talent and mold it with decisions backed by far more data than ever before. The influence of AI extends to the dugout and on-field decisions as well. Baseball has always been a strategy-heavy sport, managers deciding when to change pitchers, how to set the lineup, where to field fielders, where to position fielders.

In the past, these decisions were guided by experience, hunches, and basic statistics. Today, they're increasingly informed by predictive analytics. Teams use AI to simulate countless what-if scenarios and matchups before and during games.

Want to know the best pitcher to bring it against a particular batter in the seventh inning? AI models can analyze years of data on similar matchups, including how that batter handles pitchers with similar styles, the weather, the ballpark dimensions, and things like that. And then it gives a probabilistic answer and finds the best pitcher or batter for that particular scenario.

Managers now consult win probability tables and real-time model predictions as much as they do their lineup cards. One example from an analytics report described using AI to predict the outcome of a specific pitcher versus batter duel based on their stats and current form, something that would have sounded like science fiction a decade or two ago, but is now available at the fingertips of managers on a tablet that they consult in real-time right on the field.

Defensive strategy has also been revamped by data. In recent years, teams began employing radical defensive shifts like moving infielders to one side against pole hitters thanks to spray chart data. AI takes this further. By crunching huge data sets of where every ball lands, some teams have used deep learning to optimize fielder positioning in ways humans hadn't tried.

This AI-driven strategy was so effective that Major League Baseball created new rules that limit extreme shifts. But the use of data to position players more effectively isn't going away. Instead, it evolves and becomes more nuanced. All these AI tools don't replace managers and coaches. Rather, they augment them.

The best teams blend human intuition with machine predictions. Coaches still consider player psychology and on-the-day factors, but they now have a wealth of analytical insight to support or sometimes question their instincts. It's common now to see players and coaches in the dugout looking at iPads mid-game, studying the latest analytics on opponents. Baseball has effectively gained a high-tech co-pilot. AI crunches the numbers in real time while humans make the final call.

And when those calls are made with better information, the odds of winning go up. On top of all these types of machine learning driven advances for coaches and players, AI is also enriching the fan experience. If you've watched a baseball broadcast or checked stats on a sports app lately, you've probably seen the fingerprints of AI. For example, a win probability graph can be displayed on screen to show each team's chances of winning in real time.

Every time a run is scored or an out is made, these probabilities update based on a machine learning model trained on thousands of games. This adds context and excitement for fans, turning abstract data into a dramatic storyline. Similarly,

Advanced metrics like catch probability, the likelihood that a fielder would catch a particular fly ball, are computed using analytics of ball trajectory and fielder speed, then shown on replays to illustrate how tough a play really was. As recently as a few years ago, such insights weren't available during games. Now, they're part of the standard commentary, giving fans a deeper appreciation... appreciation...

of the skills on display. Even the game rules are feeling AI's touch. Major League Baseball has been experimenting with an automated ball strike system, essentially a robo-umpire that uses AI and vision technology to call balls and strikes instead of relying on humans, who after all are human and so make mistakes.

During 2025 spring training, Major League Baseball let players challenge human umpire calls and have the automated system adjudicate, and the system received mostly positive reviews. While purists debate the loss of some human element, many fans and players welcome the consistency and fairness AI brings to officiating. It's another example of how AI can enhance the game without changing its core. By making sure the calls are accurate, the focus stays on the player's skills.

Beyond the ballpark, baseball's AI evolution carries an inspiring message for all of us because we can use it to hit a metaphorical home run in any industry. This is a sport deeply rooted in tradition and intuition, yet it has embraced data and AI to gain a competitive edge, and the results speak for themselves.

The big takeaway for AI professionals is that any field, no matter how traditional, can be transformed by a data-driven approach. If America's oldest major sport can reinvent itself with data and machine learning models, then industries like finance, healthcare, manufacturing, retail, you name it, can do the same.

The key is to augment domain expertise, human intuition, and experience that experts have built over years with the power of AI, the ability to crunch vast data and uncover hidden patterns. In baseball, the teams that best blended scouting wisdom with algorithmic analysis became champions. In business, organizations that similarly marry their industry know-how with AI insights will outperform the competition.

Another lesson from baseball is the importance of open-mindedness and adaptation. Early adopters of AI gained a huge advantage until others caught up. We see the same in every industry. Those who innovate with AI can leap ahead, while those who resist change risk falling behind. Ultimately, AI is a tool that extends human capabilities. It doesn't replace the coaches, players, or managers in baseball. It augments their decisions with better information.

The same holds in other domains. For the foreseeable future, AI won't replace product managers, physicians, or supply chain planners, but it will arm them with insights to make smarter decisions. In summary, baseball's experience with AI shows how embracing technology can elevate performance while preserving the heart of the enterprise. The game on the field is still baseball, human athletes competing, but it's enhanced by an invisible layer of intelligence guiding decisions. Likewise,

Any industry can maintain its human core while leveraging AI for optimal outcomes. As AI professionals, we should encourage our organizations to take a cue from baseball, experiment with data, trust the analytics, prototype AI-driven functionality, keep an open mind to change, and continuously iterate. That's how you hit a home run with AI in your own industry, by using the best of both worlds, human and machine, to drive innovation and success. All right, that's

That's it for today's episode. If you enjoyed it or know someone who might consider sharing this episode with them, leave a review of the show on your favorite podcasting platform, tag me in a LinkedIn or Twitter post with your thoughts. And if you aren't already, be sure to subscribe to the show. Most importantly, however, we just hope you'll keep on listening. Until next time, keep on rocketing out there and I'm looking forward to enjoying another round of the Super Data Science Podcast with you very soon.