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cover of episode Consumer Startup Metrics with Tom Blomfield | Startup School

Consumer Startup Metrics with Tom Blomfield | Startup School

2024/11/16
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Y Combinator Startup Podcast
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Tom Blomfield
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我之前创立过一家名为 Monzo 的在线银行，目前在英国拥有约 800 万用户，还在 YC 公司 Grouper 工作过，这是一家开发社交俱乐部和约会应用的公司。基于这些经验，以及在 YC 与众多消费型公司合作的经验，我认为消费型初创公司应该关注以下几个关键指标： 首先是用户增长，对于消费型公司来说，用户增长是最重要的指标，因为盈利通常在后期实现。健康的月增长率至少为 15%，这样每年用户数量可以增长 5 倍；10% 的月增长率也可以接受，每年用户数量大约可以增长 3 倍；而 5% 或更低的月增长率则不太可能取得突破性成功。 用户增长可以分为有机增长和付费增长。有机增长是指无需付费获得的用户增长，例如通过病毒式传播和网络效应。Monzo 在初期就依靠病毒式传播和网络效应实现了百万用户增长，而无需花费任何资金在直接营销或广告上。病毒式传播是指一个用户使用你的产品后，会将其推荐给其他用户；网络效应是指随着网络节点的增加，产品价值也会随之提升。Facebook 和 WhatsApp 的早期发展就很好地体现了这两种效应。 付费增长是指通过付费方式获得的用户增长，例如通过点击付费广告、电视广告或报纸广告等。对于付费增长，需要有良好的追踪机制，以便了解每个用户的来源和获客成本。需要注意的是，获客成本应该计算到活跃、盈利和留存的用户身上，而不是仅仅是注册用户。此外，还需要警惕付费推荐计划中的同类相食和欺诈行为。 成功的消费型公司通常有机增长占比很高，至少应该达到 50% 以上。过度依赖付费增长存在风险，可能会导致利润率下降，并受制于大型广告平台。 其次是单位经济学，是指衡量每个客户产生的收入减去服务该客户的变动成本。单位经济学可以帮助公司了解每个客户的盈利能力，并优化成本或投资渠道。需要注意的是，单位经济学中应该只包含变动成本，固定成本应该在之后扣除。负的单位经济学规模化非常危险，应该在扩展用户规模之前进行修复。 再次是用户留存率。对于消费型公司来说，衡量用户留存率比 B2B 公司更复杂，因为消费型产品的用户使用频率可能不规律。为了衡量留存率，可以寻找产品的“魔力时刻”，即用户发现产品价值并更有可能成为长期用户的时刻。通过分析优秀用户的行为，可以找到这个“魔力时刻”，并优化产品体验，让更多用户尽快达到这个时刻。 最后是净推荐值 (NPS)，这是一个衡量用户推荐意愿的重要指标。高净推荐值对消费型公司至关重要，至少需要达到 50 以上。收集净推荐值的方式要保持一致，避免人为干扰结果。可以收集用户对产品的反馈，并据此改进产品，提升净推荐值。 总而言之，消费型初创公司应该关注用户增长率、有机增长与付费增长的比例、单位经济学、用户留存率和净推荐值等关键指标。但需要注意的是，每个公司的具体情况不同，指标的衡量标准也应根据实际情况进行调整。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

What is considered a good growth rate for consumer startups?

A good growth rate for consumer startups is 15% month-over-month, which allows the user base to 5x every year. A 10% monthly growth rate is acceptable, tripling the user base annually, while 5% or lower is unlikely to lead to breakout success.

What are the key differences between virality and network effects in consumer startups?

Virality refers to users introducing the product to others through its use, such as sharing achievements on social media. Network effects occur when the product becomes more valuable as more people use it, like WhatsApp, where the ability to message more users increases its utility. Both are crucial for organic growth.

Why is organic growth more sustainable than paid growth for consumer startups?

Organic growth, driven by virality and network effects, is sustainable because it doesn't rely on continuous ad spend. Once established, these mechanisms continue to attract users without additional costs, unlike paid growth, which requires ongoing investment and is vulnerable to platform changes and rising acquisition costs.

What are the risks of relying heavily on paid referral schemes?

Paid referral schemes can lead to cannibalization, where users who would have referred others for free are now paid, and fraud, where individuals exploit the system for personal gain. Both issues can inflate acquisition costs and reduce the effectiveness of the referral program.

How should consumer startups measure customer acquisition cost (CAC)?

Consumer startups should measure CAC based on the cost to acquire an active, monetized, and retaining user, not just a sign-up. This ensures that the cost reflects the value of users who contribute to long-term profitability, rather than those who may churn quickly.

What is the significance of unit economics in consumer startups?

Unit economics measure the revenue generated per customer minus the variable costs associated with serving them. It is crucial for understanding profitability on a per-customer basis and optimizing costs and revenue streams before scaling the user base.

What is a 'magic moment' in consumer startups, and why is it important?

A 'magic moment' is a user behavior or activity that predicts long-term retention, such as adding friends on Facebook or booking a stay on Airbnb. Identifying and optimizing for this moment during onboarding can significantly improve user retention and satisfaction.

What is the minimum Net Promoter Score (NPS) a consumer startup should aim for?

A consumer startup should aim for a minimum Net Promoter Score (NPS) of +50. This score indicates strong customer satisfaction and likelihood of word-of-mouth referrals, which are critical for organic growth and long-term success.

Chapters
This chapter explores essential metrics for consumer startups, focusing on user growth (organic vs. paid), the importance of virality and network effects, and the challenges of paid referral schemes, including cannibalization and fraud. It emphasizes the long-term value of organic growth over paid acquisition.
  • Headline user growth is crucial, with 15% monthly growth being ideal.
  • Organic growth through virality and network effects is more sustainable than paid acquisition.
  • Paid referral schemes require careful monitoring to avoid cannibalization and fraud.

Shownotes Transcript

In this episode of Startup School, YC Partner Tom Blomfield dives deeper into the metrics that matter most for consumer startups. Tom discusses paid and organic user growth, unit economics, net promoter scores, and the "magic moment" in your product that is most important to track.