Can Anyone Catch SpaceX?
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Welcome to this week check six podcast where we catch up on space sexes flight test of the starship super heavy after this rather ers spectacular mission and push the recovery on october thirteen. Not that anyone will miss you, but in that flight test, space ex launched the starship returned to recovered the massive booster by catching IT on the launch tower and flu starship to a controlled landing in the indian ocean.

The test was the latest set forward in space x chief elon muscle bike to cut the cost of launching people and pillows or orbit by one hundred fold. You heard that right? One hundred fold and launch cruise ed to mars around twenty twenty eight.

I'm joe anselmo aviation, we editorial director and editor, chief of aviation we can space technology and joining me to discuss the milestone and the path ahead for SpaceX. Our space had a iraine clots whose based in cape canaveral and senior edit guy nose, both have followed start liner's progress closely. I read there is so much discuss here in our limited window, but what were your impressions of that flight? I followed the space in sphere a long time and i've never seen anything like that catch.

Yes IT was uh IT was quite remarkable. I think that even surprised space ex they uh said they go after a flight for um elon masked to uh try and attempt a catch and had uh some delays getting things cleared uh for flight from the F A A and that they launched on the thirteenth of october.

The goals of this flight, uh in addition to seeing if they could bring the a super heavy booster back intact on on the tower, also wanted to check improvements to the starship he chilled which on nearly cost uh the ship on the the flight for um but IT IT did manage to hang on if you remember that that flap hanging as during the reentry um for flight five uh the ship for the first time did land on target in the ocean and the indian ocean and then uh the catch uh was a really um kind of turn the corner on this idea of whether space ex could accomplish a landing uh without landing legs. Basically to use the tower for both uh um assembly and launch and also as a way to um remove the wait. And the just is a Operability for reuse by having the booster in in the tower.

There were a couple things that uh weren't weren't perfect with IT right after the flight. The first report was that there were some of the an outer engine noises of the super heavy booster were um worked from the reentry heating and then also uh there was a uh and cover and arrow cover that fell off uh just before the landing burn. Uh IT turned out later that that was actually covering some mission critical valves for the for the landing burns。 So space x got kind of lucky harnesses and the valves remained Operational for the for the landing burn. But all and all very a really impressive uh feet on a this flight.

So I am I mean, the catch of the booster look perfectly was something of a size I movie as to wash around a kid. But as you just sort of a noted IT actually might have been a little bit of a close call for .

our listeners in well, let's see on october. I think that was the twenty five about a week or so after the the flight um elon must posted a um short clip on x um that actually showed him playing a video game and in the background he was getting briefed on the flight from some space act people they were not identified and in that they referred to uh wanting to tell elon about quote, some scary shit that happened on the flight and lead off and that was the information that they were about one hundred abroad scenarios and uh one of them nearly triggered on the abort of the of the landing catch and what would have happened is the super heavy would have a attempted to uh crash in the on the ground and near the launched tower um but that didn't that didn't trigger um they said they were about a second away from that.

And I think what was interesting about that is that the engineers were saying that they did not really have the time to go through. There were a hundred of board scenarios and they said that they did not have the time to kind of vt them as fully as of the abort scenario that they veit for starships first flight on back in April of twenty three, which I think uh they said was like the the most risky flight that um they had a they had to go through the engineering get to mitigate the risk for that flight as much as what they try to do for this flight five. They do have some solutions for that. And it's entirely possible that backs could repeat this flight perhaps with a little bit more margins on all these issues. Uh, for flight six, which theyve not yet said a uh uh a date for but they do have F A approval for that flight provided they stick with a similar trajectories and and flight plan is what they proposed for flat at five.

I know you just hans said, I mean, isn't that part of the secrets face exit success that they fly by its heated their pants? They have a high talents for risk, a talents for failure. I can't imagine a NASA program doing something like this.

Now you're absolutely right, jo. That's sid. astonishing. I mean, what iron just described as is, like, you know, the classics spaces in araria that we sort of become increasingly used to. And they really rewritten the real book on how to do space fights, space flight experiment and this sort of perpetual cycle, really of test, fly fast test, see what breaks and test again. And in fact, really that takes us to where where we're onna go next with this mission.

Because obviously one of the key, the key things that really space tex has to demonstrate is the ability to rely the rapture engine, which is the one of the building block, to this whole program, this huge new engine, they have to show the ability to rely IT in the vacuum in. Remember the the rapture itself for IT is this full flow stage conversion and engine, which is sort of about an amazing field cycle in itself. It's never been flown before.

So even the fact that it's flown now on these five test missions is again pioneering. But what has to be prevenient the ability to shut IT off off and restarted in space? This is the next milestone that we'll need because obviously, eventually you have to do the relight so that they can reenter um the reentry capability.

The second stage, obviously a vital depend on on this capability. Now the reason they haven't done IT so far, well, they hope to do IT on one or more of the earlier flights potentially in march the third test, but that they did. But control of the vehicle was last on that. And thank you. I rain remembers that pretty well.

And uh, on the last two, IT doesn't seem that they have really attempt to to go anywhere near that test because they were really focusing on getting the reentry capabilities tested ah which they of course made a home run with that on this one of course of the of you know the second stage, as we saw from video out in the indian ocean, where are the boy was attached to the the camera and they got that they looked like they nailed IT pretty well. Um so really it's the fact that the of the faa has been very stranger on you know it's it's kind of its requirements for a controlled reentry um and of course, the precise deal but in a deal bit burnt is is what they need. But that sort of one of the aspects is, is to bring back the starship.

Um they would need to come back to texas if that's where they wanted to join, attempt the landing. We'd have to come in over a mexico and part of texas, of course. So so that's the reason they have to be a completely assured that this the rap is gonna .

and there's leana mask. His Angel has always been getting to mars, getting people to mars. Um there's two upcoming launch windows for potential mars missions the first and twenty twenty six they're going descend in and on crude vehicle. And then the goal would be if they can succeed there to actually send a human stomach in twenty twenty eight. How likely to do you think that is, guy, that they can meet that start is pretty ambitious.

is hugely ambitious. Um I mean but inner you can never say no, can you with space proof that the doubt is wrong so many times. But okay, let's go through a quick lineup of what we need to happen beyond the in light to know in space rely to the rapture, we need to see the starship obviously land so uh that as we just mention that seen a dependent on the on the rap to rely, but also finding a place to land, maybe iran can talk about as well um in a minute.

But you know, one of the possibilities is that this time round, space x is outlined, a plan to build four of these giant towers, two near where iran lives and two in texas. And at the moment, if you want to reland the starship as they want to do IT, they're going to have to use one of those towers. So one of the potential scenario is they are looking at putting legs on the starship.

One versions gona have to have legs eventually anyway, and land IT somewhere else, potentially in the pacific, in a back at the going back to the early days of spx and out in the johnston at all area or or even somewhere like australia has been mentioned as a potential. So that's that's the first thing that's got to happen. Then they've got to do a refile of the of the the heavy in the super, a heavy first stage that's going to be something which is you know the next big milestone beyond that.

Uh then begins this long series of big proving flights going out into deep space, beginning with this sort of uh alonga ation test flight, which is a milestone that NASA really requires for its, you know, the human landing system. A human launch system, we should say, that needs to show that a starship can fly around the moon or in the first lunar environment for month at a time to show that I can autonomously Operate in this in the slung area, just in case is a delay in getting the crew up from earth for any manner of reasons. Starships still gotta a viable vehicle when they gets to the moon.

Then beyond that, there's the on crude lunar landing. Then there's the crude, if that goes well and this a crude landing. So finally, you're looking at probably twenty twenty eight by the time if all goes well, if that's possible and it's only then that obviously you can begin thinking about mah.

So you know twenty, thirty two, thirty one potentially. I don't know. I think what do .

you think that was a great list? Uh one more big uh technical milestone that to be demonstrated and developed is propellant transfer um in orbit.

Yes.

it's interesting that that is entire architecture for artists sts for the crude missions relies on both the blue origins lander and space axis lander being able to refuel in orbit. That also has wide implications for all kinds of other programs and possibilities and leo and and beyond.

What's interesting with space x is if they are going to a follow the the optimist moon architecture in parallel with mars development or if they split them off and kind of do both, um they seem to be really good good at handling multiple programs simultaneously. IT was interesting that the uh the the the launch of a of the starship flight five was followed by the super heavy flight of europa clipper, followed by the return of flight at the falk in nine, which had been temporarily grounded by an upstage engine issue. And um starlink missions were flying.

So they're they're really good at at multiple asking. Um I think IT depends on if they want na backing on on the mars missions. This is something they're gonna just kind of of their own by you know certainly everything is at least three years behind where uh elon mask um initially said that would be, but I think that's also very um purposeful ly motivating uh for the workforce.

Now that does exactly same thing on the optimist program. They're presumably looking at an optimist three landing with this space x uh human landing system based on starship in a in of two years of which seems highly unlikely given even just the flight test that guy was just talking about that need to happen first. But they they're certainly making progress.

And a one of the a one of the slowdowns has been clearing the public safety issues on with starship flights that the F A. Is responsible for. And they have an opportunity now with flight six, if they want to a kind of baLance what they're going to do for improving the the the risk posture of the booster versus expanding the Operational envelope of starship. So what kind of see where they where they pick up?

I really reckon that they are gone to use flight six to to do this real test onna be part of IT because if they could um obviously would open the potential for using the large capacity of starship to launch these biggest starling satellites next year that they're talking about. No, even before they get to any of the deep space stuff.

I think that would depend what they proposed to the F A. A if they proposed to relied on their. But the F A would need to review that the reality would obviously be occurring over a unpopulated area in case IT did not go successfully.

And if starship um had an uncontrolled entry that again that would be over unpopulated areas. So I don't know what basics has proposed for that. The the simplest if they wanted to just buy buy fast.

And I believe this this ship that they're flying is the last at their version one. So there's going to be a review needed once they change the configuration of the ship. More power later.

Wait could be bigger. Um so I I don't know. I think I would really I I think I would just depend on the on the flight profile. They did have approval on flight three to do a rely. So perhaps it's not a as big of a stretch for the F A to a look at um the implications of a boost of a um starship um engine rely in orbit for flight six. I think that's one .

of the incredible things about the story so far as the rapid evolution of what we've seen with starship as well. And you mention this is the last of the blood ones, I think I believe as well.

And when you look at, you know, as you mentioned, how that the flat was hanging off in a belly hanging on to by its hinge on the way back flight for but you know, we've seen the incredible advanced they've done in the improved thermal protection system in general and this new sort of, apparently, this new ceramic kind of capability. We've got the improved faring over the flap join, which, you know, again, goes to the to the improvements that quickly have been voted quickly. But what's gonna exciting is, as you go to this sort of block two version, what we're gonna able to see this new forward flat.

It's if more area space related listeners IT looks like a canal, I didn't know, on a fighter aircraft um and it's up slightly upward, tilted a bit like the rifle on the french fighter aircraft, the rifle sort of upward uh cannot they going it's going to be moved further forward and upward so that it's sort of motor lewd when the that sort of reentry face is happening. Um the original design that they flying the moment elon mosca said is too heavy and draggy um and it's really pushed the nose high up, which you know is is not great for hypothesis eating. So um so we're going to see that, for example, come along pretty soon in the flight, probably the flight after next. So um yeah I I just it's just astonishing.

I read you and I both covered a dang golden. He ran nason the thousand nine hundred nineties and we'd like them because he talked about revolutionary advances. But I don't even remember dan golden talking about a hundred fold reduction and launch costs um if spacelike x really succeeds in this, what happens all the other launch service providers?

Ah well that's a good question. Um I think IT bears remembering that um there's different reasons for all the different launchers on europe. Japan, russia, china all want indigenous capabilities for launch.

So whatever space ex is doing in the united states, there is international interest in maintaining domestic capabilities in the the united states of starting with the military. They want um more than one non redundant systems to reach that. So that means at least two different completely the different kinds of launched systems.

Uh NASA wants uh adore redundancy U S capability to fly people til leo, which is why uh boeing star liner is uh is um remains in this program though they have yet to become an Operational system. And um there is the a the small launch vehicles rocket labs doing really well. Um firefly has wala different contracts and there are several new uh, visitors coming up. So it's uh I don't be interesting.

I I think one of the uh I think people where you are divided on whether they are planning for an Operation starship, you know coming up scientists coming up with, you know ideas for massive telescopes and things that can be launched on starship, where they would have even dreamed that before, you know a telescope like jams web where had to be extremely carefully folded, uh took decades of development to um come up with something that could be fit into our rocket, fearing and then deployed in orbit. Some of those engineering chAllenges are just become absolutely if you have a assistant with a pillow capability and and diameter of of a starship. Um I don't know you know it's also a question of of of a taxpayer funded program verses a private company um you know pay as space sex oh its um existence to NASA NASA funding that is very interested in continuing to look um the next generations after space acts.

But uh further you know IT is IT is the elephant in the room. Even at the iac space, ex didn't really have a presence there about pretty much everything revolved around the starship five five of conversations and just what the implications are if this system is able to become Operational and IT IT puts us in a very interesting position because on one hand, their architecture for the um humans to my humans to the moon is completely dependent on space ex. And yet the little capacity and the flexibility and the alternative architecture that an Operational starship presents is a direct potential chAllenge to the mainstay S I S an um um programs that NASA has been finding with billions of billions of dollars for more than a decade.

Dinos were just about at a time, but let's give you the final word.

h well, building on on what I I mean, you know, be interesting to see how the two, the two S S S elements like the iran become integrated with, perhaps space sexes, the starship system that they both in in a way linked, don't they, intimately in some of these NASA plans. But I think what's interesting to me is the fact that know elan mask has talked about this moon base alpha plan in which is totally dependent on the lift capability of starship.

The version three, that is, outline has a lift capacity over two hundred tons of payload. It's just astonishing things. And you know, he's saying that using version to and version three launches, ten launches a day is what he's talking about.

And one point five million tons per opportunity and two hundred and fifty thousand to mars per opportunity. I mean, it's a different world. So in I for one and a more for IT, I really hope that some of this vision is is achieved.

okay. Well, i'll note the two you been talking about, elan musk, for twenty five minutes and did not once to bring up politics. That was by design. That's not what aviation week does if our listeners want to hear about politics playing a places ago for that. But that is all the time we have for today a special banks to our podcast producer in london, guy ferny ho. Don't miss out on the next episode by subscribing to check six in your podcast APP of choice and one final request if you're listening to us in apple podcast and want to support this podcast, please leave us a star rating or review buy for now and join us next week for another check sex.

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