U.S. Open Friday: Forget the trends – heading into the weekend, it's wide open
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who are still on the golf course. It was absolutely dumping here a little while ago. That's why you're still in your suit in the clubhouse. What'd you make of Friday at Oakmont? It got harder. I think this is what you and I talked about, the idea that

There were a lot of nervous people early yesterday morning. I think at one point we had 10 people who were under par for the day, including someone who was five. And I think we had two players who got to five and six under today. So I think there was even some hand-wringing. But you saw a little bit tougher pen positions. I think you saw a little bit of Oakmont being Oakmont. And I think you saw the USGA making sure that the winning score is not going to be more than four, five, six under par.

It played harder, and yet the scoring average was almost identical from round one to round two. It was about 74.7, and the opening round is 74.6. I think you just saw more ejections from players who were either on the cut line or just absolutely had zero chance. Pour one out for George Dwang-Mangy, who shot...

rounds of 86-89 to finish DFL by a whole lot. I know how much you love doing this, Rex, but I've got a stat for you as we sit here now heading into the weekend at the U.S. Open. And here it is, folks. 11 of the past 12 U.S. Open winners were within the top five after 36 holes. And so that would be, as we sit here late on Friday night, Sam Burns, J.J. Spahn, Victor Hovland,

Adam Scott and Ben Griffin. Again, if history is any indication, 11 of the past 12 U.S. Open winners were within the top five. The winner of the 125th U.S. Open is coming out of that group. So my question, of those five, who do you feel the most confident in?

You don't like Brooks Koepka tied for eight right now. He's two under. I'm just telling you what the historical trends and statistics are. I understand. Yeah, I understand. This is what you love to do. Victor Perez, poor Thurston Lawrence. Thurston Lawrence didn't even finish his round. He got dumped on this afternoon. You have so many good players lined up. That is a tough break because he's likely to cut out very,

very early in the morning to finish the second round. We're also anticipating some weather on Saturday. And so he's going to have to wake up at the butt crack of dawn, finish the second round. And then because he's currently sitting in a tie for six, wait, I don't know, six or seven hours before he tees off in the third round. That's going to be like you and I have an early live from hit and then sitting around waiting for the final groups to tee off. Uh,

To answer your question, probably if you're going to keep me sort of locked into those five players, it'd have to be Victor Hovland, right? I mean, I thought it was an interesting, different Victor than what we ran across over the last few weeks, at least. Even when he would go out and shoot a good score or a decent score, he still didn't seem happy with his swing. And look, we love the honesty that comes out of Victor. This time around, though, there was a level of confidence. There was a level of ease that we haven't seen in a while, that he felt like he's comfortable with his swing. And that's hard to do.

on this golf course. I think that's one of the keys coming into this week. If you could just not get out of your own, I mean, if you could get out of your own way and not get too worked up over trying to be perfect. And that's what Victor did today. And I loved it that he described it was fun. I don't think there was many guys who walked off that golf course today that thought it was going to be fun. So of those five, I would lean towards Victor Holland, but certainly Kiernan,

the way Sam Burns played today and the way he played last week at the Canadian Open and the way he's been trending ever since, really after the Masters. Like he struggled early in the season. I had a chance to talk with his manager, Brett Falkoff, about what was wrong. He missed four cuts going into the Masters. And it was really just his ball strike. He said his iron play was just awful, but he kept after it with his swing coach. And he's now got that confidence back and he's putting well. So I think probably those two more than any of the other three,

in that category stand out. But right now, you and I both know, and we saw it all day long, you can get Oakmont real quick. Or U.S. Opened, as Victor Hovland said in his press conference. Victor Hovland is actually the subject of the story I wrote on NBCSports.com. You told me you were writing Phil. I wrote both. It was a very busy day.

for the senior writer for Golf Channel. The reason I wanted to write Victor, as you mentioned, I think the shift in sort of self-critiques has shifted dramatically as it relates to Victor Haas. Remember at the Valspar Championship, even though he won that golf tournament at Innisbrook, which is one of the toughest championships

regular season stops on the PGA tour. He still felt uncomfortable. He still sort of said that this is smoke and mirrors. He still said some of the pattern changes that he was trying to incorporate in his swing. We're still not all the way there. It was sort of a credit to him, his guts, his resilience, the other parts of his game certainly picked up the slack, but from a ball striking standpoint, he still did not feel good. Even though he was sitting there with the trophy beside him. I think it's notable now Rex, because three months later,

sort of the work that he has been doing at home on the range with his swing coach, Grant Waite, is starting to pay off. And this is a player in Victor Hovland who does not want to show up

If he does not feel confident in his game, remember he almost withdrew from the PGA championship in 2024 because he thought that he had zero chance to win the golf tournament. You look at his schedule so far in 2025, other than the Valspar, which was sort of a late addition to his schedule to try and find something. He has only played major championships and signature events. He just wants to be home. He just wants to refine his action. He is talking about,

I think he sounds certainly more encouraged now, almost bordering on confident.

And that leads me to believe this is a Victor Hovland who very, uh, who very well could be close to a breakthrough the way that he's driving the golf ball. His iron play in particular has been stellar. The only thing that gives me pause as it relates to Victor Hovland. I know if you look at strokes, gain statistics, uh, his short game has been off the charts. That was based on just a chip in that was, was virtually impossible. So we gained a lot of shots that way. He is just, uh,

three of 11 scrambling at this point. I think it's pretty easy to envision

If he starts missing some greens, not being able to rely on the short game like a lot of other players have been able to. That's the only thing that gives me pause as it relates to Victor Hovland. I'm with you with Sam Burns, though. Like he had it going on Thursday, let it go with a brutal closing stretch. I believe he was like five over of his last five or six holes. He's made 11 birdies so far. His 65 that he shot.

on Friday, Rex, was nearly 10 shots better than the field average, two shots better than anyone else in a field of 156. Obviously, we know that the heater that he's been on recently, five of his last six starts have gone for top 20s lost in the playoff last week at the Canadian Open. This certainly seems like an extension of his good play.

So if it is not among those five guys, which again, history tells you 11 of the past 12 have been in the top five, then who? Who else has your attention as we look ahead to the weekend, Rex? I'll go back to Brooks. I mean, that one's pretty easy for me. And he didn't have the best of days on Friday. And I think he stumbled quite a bit. But I still like the idea of this, of course, was always going to bring out the best of.

And if we're ever going to find major championship Brooks again, it was going to be at a course like Oakmont. That was going to be a brawl, and he was just going to have to get down in the mud, and he was going to have to find it. And I think somewhere deep down inside, Pete Cowan, his swing coach, knew that when he gave him the kick in the butt earlier this week about if it's ever going to happen, it's

It's going to happen on this golf course or something similar to this golf course. And again, he didn't have his best shot for over 74. I will say under the conditions and knowing what we do about this golf course, that probably wasn't too far off. And I still like his chances, even though statistically he doesn't fall in that Ryan Labner green zone. Yeah.

He certainly does not, although he is just outside of it. This is sort of the Brooks Koepka that we'd seen for much of 2025, though. Very sloppy. He made eight bogeys, went ice cold with the putter, which have been sort of his bugaboo throughout 2025. I saw him grinding afterward with his putting coach, Jeff Pierce, trying to find something that he can take.

into the weekend. I'm looking Rex just a little bit further, not surprisingly at Scotty Scheffler, who sits at four over par seven shots back of Sam Burns currently in a tie for 23rd. I walked the entire back nine with him. He was playing with Victor Hovland in Kalamurakawa and this was an almighty grind for

as it relates to Scottie Scheffler. He hit just seven greens in regulation. This is the best iron player since Tiger Woods. You'd never see that from Scottie. He made so many five to 10 footers just to keep the round going. He hit two really nice, like a hundred yard wedge shots with his third shot just to kick in range, just to salvage par. Like this was, this could have gotten away from him very, very quickly. I think that's why I think you saw him with a pretty upbeat tone, uh,

knowing that sitting at four over par is,

knowing the winning score was probably not going to be a whole lot lower than that without having his best stuff over these first 36 holes. He was on the range for a long time, at least a half hour, close to 45 minutes. That was animated, man. That was so animated. Barking, barking at his longtime swing coach, clearly frustrated. He would not leave that practice area until he found something. I don't know, Rex, do you believe in Scotty Scheffler?

seven shots back heading into the weekend. I do. And I actually wrote, uh, the only thing I wrote for NBC sports.com slash golf was Scotty Scheffler because he was aggravated and it was a scrappy round. And that was about as animated that we've, we've ever seen him on the range with Randy Smith. And we've seen him really animated before. Excuse me. Hmm.

Timeout. He's dead. I'm dying. That's as animated as I've seen him before. However, he didn't sound frustrated when he spoke with us afterwards. It was, no, I still feel like I'm two good rounds away and I'm right there. And I took the optimistic side. And maybe he was just putting on a face for the media. And then he marched over to the range and gave poor Randy Smith the what for.

But I still think I'm kind of with you that he's still Scotty Scheffler and he can still has the ability to go out and do exactly what Sam Burns did today and shoot a pretty easy looking 65 on this golf course. Yeah, I don't know if 65 is realistic, although I do think I mean, it was absolutely dumping here about 30 minutes ago. That's certainly going to take some of the fire out of the fairways, which were getting sort of crispy, sort of kicking balls off the cambers into the long rough. It's going to make the greens, which were significantly firming up.

since earlier in the week, a little bit more receptive as well. A couple other names I would throw out there that certainly have my attention. Russell Henley sitting at two over par. He can't afford to hit just 50% of his fairways through the rest of the tournament. However, an elite iron player, an elite putter, John Rahm,

Colin Morikawa, two players who are absolutely striping it through 36 holes and cannot buy a single putt. All of those players, I think, are within striking distance who, again, they can shoot something 68, 69. I think they're going to make a lot of make up a lot of ground. I still think it's pretty wide open at this point, despite what history has

tells us. How about real quickly, Rex, some of the missed cuts. I'm going to rattle off some of these names. You let me know your level of surprise. Bryson DeChambeau shot 77, hit just five fairways on Friday. Joaquin Neiman, live golf superstar, drove it terribly and made just two birdies. Sepp Straka, who continued his run of missed cuts.

in the major championships, miscut, miscut, miscut, the Masters PGA and now the U.S. Open. Justin Thomas continuing his streak with one top 30 in the majors since the 2022 PGA. Shane Lowry, Ludwig Oberg, Tommy Fleetwood, Phil Mickelson. Any thoughts on those who are packing their bags early?

I think Bryson was a bit of a surprise. You and I talked a lot about it earlier in the week. I didn't think he was going to be able to contend. I think we spoke about this at length like he did at Wingfoot back in 2020 for a lot of different reasons. I didn't expect him to do what he did today with a 77 and miss the cut. I think Phil was interesting simply because of probably the reason why you wrote him. This could very well be his last U.S. Open.

And it looked for a little while he wasn't going to contend, but it looked like he was easily going to make the weekend. And then he just absolutely imploded. I can't say I'm particularly surprised by JT, because even though he's playing so much better this season than he did last season and probably the season before that, he does have these lapses.

where he just, he did it at the Players' Championship. Now, the difference at TPC Celebrates is he rebounded on Friday to make the cut. This time around, he was just sort of awful going down the stretch. But all of those, the one that surprises me the most is Bryson, simply because coming into this event, I believe he was second favorite. And I did not debate that. I didn't think it was a bad move, simply because of the way Rory had been playing, and Scottie was such a clear favorite. So that's the one.

Yeah, I mean, particularly the way that he played the first two major championships. Now you missed the cut at the U.S. Open. He has never played the Open Championship well, has missed the cut more often than he has made it, never really been in contention. It could be a quiet summer as it relates to Bryson DeChambeau. I continue to be surprised by Joaquin Neiman. I know he backdoored into a top 10, his first top 10 in a major championship just last month at the PGA for how good he is.

to have that not translate what his talent is so obvious and his physical gifts are so obvious continues to be, continues to befuddle me just a little bit more. All right. That's going to do it for this edition. Golf channel podcast with Rex and lab. As a reminder, go to NBC sports.com slash golf.

For all latest news, notes, and updates, I have detailed stories up on Victor Hovland and Phil Mickelson, who likely just played his final U.S. Open. In the meantime, talk to you guys on Saturday night. Thanks for listening. Thanks for the support. Talk to you guys Saturday night.

Thank you.

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Indeed.com slash NBC Sports. Terms and conditions apply. Hiring? Indeed is all you need. Substance use disorder and addiction is so isolating. And so as a Black woman in recovery, hope must be loud.

It grows louder when you ask for help and you're vulnerable. It is the thread that lets you know that no matter what happens, you will be okay. When we learn the power of hope, recovery is possible. Find out how at startwithhope.com. Brought to you by the National Council for Mental Wellbeing, Shatterproof, and the Ad Council.