We're sunsetting PodQuest on 2025-07-28. Thank you for your support!
Export Podcast Subscriptions
cover of episode Will Tariffs Make Secondhand the First Choice? | Reimagining Retail

Will Tariffs Make Secondhand the First Choice? | Reimagining Retail

2025/5/21
logo of podcast Behind the Numbers: an EMARKETER Podcast

Behind the Numbers: an EMARKETER Podcast

AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
R
Rachel Wolff
S
Sarah Lebow
S
Skye Canaves
Topics
Sarah Lebow: 作为主持人,我引导讨论,提出关税对转售和租赁市场的影响这一核心问题。我认为,虽然转售市场在某些方面可能受益于关税,例如消费者寻求更便宜的替代品,但同时也存在挑战,如二手商品供应可能受到限制。我强调了不同平台如ThredUp和Depop的增长,但也指出了像Buffalo Exchange这样销售额停滞的例子,表明市场反应并不一致。我特别关注如何激励消费者参与转售,以及经济下行可能对此产生的影响。此外,我还提出了品牌自建转售市场可能对其新商品销售产生的影响,以及疫情期间的经验是否适用于当前形势。 Skye Canaves: 我主要从市场和消费者行为的角度分析关税的影响。我认为,关税可能促使消费者更多地转向转售市场,尤其是在奢侈品领域。我强调了品牌自建转售市场的潜力,以及如何通过激励措施(如折扣和积分)来吸引消费者。同时,我也指出了供应链可能面临的挑战,例如如何确保稳定的二手商品供应。我提到,疫情期间的经验可以借鉴,但也需要考虑到当前消费者支出能力的变化。此外,我还认为,技术创新,如价格比较工具和人工智能,将在转售市场的发展中发挥重要作用。 Rachel Wolff: 我对关税的长期影响持谨慎态度。我认为,即使关税存在,消费者是否会长期坚持转售仍然不确定,尤其是在电子产品等领域。我指出,Z世代虽然是转售市场的主要参与者,但同时也是快时尚的消费者,这表明可持续性可能不是他们选择转售的主要动机。我提到了Vinted在英国等市场的成功,但也强调了美国市场可能面临的挑战。此外,我还认为,技术创新,如更有效的搜索工具,对于提升转售市场的吸引力至关重要。

Deep Dive

Shownotes Transcript

Translations:
中文

Want to reach your customers where they're already talking? Over the past decade, Giphy has built a platform used daily by millions everywhere conversations are happening. Now, Giphy Ads enables brands to connect with their audiences through ads people share, not just see. For more, head to ads.giphy.com. That's ads.giphy.com.

Hello, listeners. Today is Wednesday, May 21st. Welcome to Behind the Numbers, Reimagining Retail, an eMarketer podcast made possible by Giphy. This is the show where we talk about how retail collides with every part of our lives. I'm your host, Sarah Lebo. Today, we're talking about tariffs again, but this time we're talking about how they're impacting the circular economy. Before we get into that, let's meet today's guests.

Joining me for today's episode, we have two of our analysts. First up, an analyst from our long-form desk, it's Skye Canaves. Hey, Skye. Hey, Sarah. It's great to be back. Great to have you. And it's one of our short-form writers who writes about tariffs every day now, Rachel Wolfe. Hey, Rachel. Hey, Sarah. Thanks for having me. Thanks for being here. Rachel, are you writing about tariffs today? I am not, surprisingly. I know. Well, you're talking about them, so...

Okay, so as we always do with our tariffs episodes, let's set the stage a little for our time of recording since this changes so much. Tariffs on Chinese goods have been rolled back to 30% for 90 days, offering a bit of reprieve for U.S. consumers. Though, as our colleague Zach Stambor wrote, it's clear the Overton window of tariffs has shifted. A 30% tariff is still a significant hit to retailers' margins.

Today, we're looking at how tariffs will impact the circular economy, by which we mean resale and rented goods. And I'm particularly curious about apparel, electronics, and toys. Obviously, this is also impacting auto, but since that's its own beast, we're going to stay away from that for now.

So let's start with that. How will tariffs impact the circular economy? There's no international supply chain on most secondhand goods. So at first glance, it seems like tariffs would be good for resale and rentals, right? Yeah. Early indications are that consumers, at least in certain categories, are really interested in resale. And we've heard of a lot of growth from some of the big resale platforms like ThredUp,

They reported nearly doubling their year-on-year new sign-ups between January and March. And there's some data out of Sensor Tower showing a big uptick in downloads of some of the popular fashion resale platforms. I think Depop was at the top. It's really popular with Gen Z. It's now owned by Etsy, but it has a very social community feel. And we've also been hearing that foot traffic has

at thrift stores and secondhand stores is up for in-person thrift shopping and resale shopping. Yeah, it's interesting. I've seen some contradictory data. I mean, on the one hand, as Guy said, you have all these platforms saying they've seen a huge jump in the number of users on their platform. At the same time, you know, you have some prominent resellers like Buffalo Exchange, which have noted, you know, sales are basically flat year on year. P

PwC's consumer markets analyst said that there really isn't

a lot of data to show that resale is seeing this huge surge, despite what some of these platforms are saying. Yeah. I mean, what companies stand to benefit from this behavior? Anecdotally, it feels like everyone in New York City is renting clothes from Nuuly right now. Yeah, I think certainly Nuuly, Rent Their One Way, I think also is probably one of the companies that would stand to benefit from

ThredUp, as we've said, Depop, I think those are the usual suspects. On the high end, I would say the RealReal as well. I think once luxury goods start getting even more expensive than they already are, then that just makes platforms like the RealReal or Best Year Collective a lot more attractive. Yeah, if I were these companies, I would really be leaning into the U.S.

aspect of my supply chain in marketing. That said, there are some ways I could see tariffs hurting resale. For example, if people hold on to products longer to dodge higher replacement costs, could that choke out the secondhand supply chain? I think that's one of the biggest challenges in resale is getting the right supply at the right time, ensuring consistent supply. And there's so much competition now among the different platforms.

to get the supply. This has been more of an issue, I think, in fashion, but I think there's potential for it to spill over into a lot of the other categories as well.

And so the platforms are really trying to create better incentives for consumers to sell on them. I think at the same time, if consumers are feeling strapped for cash, it makes resale more appealing to them as a way to make some easy money from products they already have in their homes. But they're going to look for the platform where they can get the best prices,

and pay the lowest commissions. And that can put platforms in a bind. As we saw last year, Poshmark tried to cut its seller fees and pass on some of those costs to the buyers. And there was a buyer revolt of sorts, and they kind of had to reverse course on that. Yeah. For electronics in particular, I could see the supply chain being hurt. For example, if you

People don't want to spend money on the new iPhone, which Apple is saying will be more expensive not because of tariffs, but it's sort of hard not to see at least a correlation there. They might be holding on to their older electronics for longer instead of trading up and that could hurt the resale market. Yeah, but I think it'll take a while for that to happen just because a lot of people are stocking up now in those categories to get ahead of tariffs. Yeah.

And in other categories like apparel and toys, I think there's already so much supply sitting in people's homes that the real key or challenge is unlocking it, getting people to sell it, getting people to adopt that circular mindset of,

which is a very gradual shift, one that's likely to take place more among younger consumers than going completely mainstream. Yeah. I mean, how do you unlock that, get people to resell? I think that that economic downturn could

potentially help that? Yeah, on the luxury side, I've been seeing incentives from some of the resale platforms for new signups, like we'll give you an extra $100 if you when you sell your first item, and they will give additional bonuses if you sell more on their platforms.

So that's one way. It's a lot harder to do in lower price or lower margin categories or areas like toys where the goods are not going to cost that much. And maybe a lot more of that resale will go to channels like Facebook Marketplace or not even resale channels, but places like Buy Nothing Groups.

Yeah, I mean, that could be a real benefit to Facebook, which is hurting as Shein and Timu pull back on ads there. Do you guys also have like a shameful corner of your home where your potential resale or giveaway items sit? Or is that just me? It's my office right now. I have a closet that's been full of some...

baby and toddler items that I'm trying to clear out so I can reorganize the home. And I've taken it out of the closet. So all of that is now sitting on the floor and it'll be making its way into the, there's a combination of the buy nothing group, the marketplace, and then just giving away to, uh,

friends and people we know. Yeah, I also have a bag of castoffs just waiting to be sent to Goodwill. Yeah, mine is waiting to be put out on the street outside of my apartment. And finding the time to do that is challenging. I think one of the reasons we saw a big uptick in resale activity during the pandemic was that people had more time to clean out their homes

and to sell stuff, and also more time to shop online and more money to spend online. So we did see a bit of a boom in resale in that real pandemic era, along with there were also the supply chain challenges that made more consumers willing to look to resale channels for the products they were looking for. And then following that, there was a bit of a dip in resale activity, particularly in apparel, because

The new apparel brands and retailers wound up with too much inventory, which they then had to discount. So that kind of reduced the price gap between resale and new items, particularly in the lower-priced fashion segment.

One thing we also saw during that pandemic era was a lot of brands wanting to own their own resale markets, incentivizing consumers to give or sell their items back to them so that they could control their own resale market. For brands that are doing that now, as people sort of flock toward resale, could that potentially hurt their new goods sales, which may become more expensive?

I think it depends on how they want to own the experience, right? If they want to do their own end-to-end resale experience, then it keeps...

buyers are in the fold. You can also incentivize people who trade in their used goods and give them discounts for new goods. And that, again, could help drive sales, even if it's at a discount. I think for a lot of brands, it's a valuable customer acquisition tool as well for those consumers who can't yet pay full price, just to introduce them to the brand and its products and the quality. And if you have...

the goods to support your brand, they will be able to convert. In some categories, like

children's wear, it might just make more sense to go with resale for the most part. But you can also create kind of a virtuous cycle in resale, selling new items and then taking them back from consumers when they're ready to part with them. Yeah, I think Madewell does this with denim. Maybe Levi's also pretty common. So does this mean that like amid tariffs,

resellers, circular economy companies and brands should just be dusting off the pandemic playbook, as we say, or is it a different strategy they're taking? I think a lot of it is the same, right? You have a similar sort of supply shock where prices are getting more expensive and inventory could be more limited.

And, you know, people are price conscious. So I think a lot of the tactics that retailers use during the pandemic, especially when it comes to resale, are going to come into play now. I think one area to consider is that at the same time,

The big e-commerce boom that we saw during the pandemic and the extra cash that consumers had to spend are no longer parts of the equation. So they maybe have to take a more measured approach to their expectations of growth. And as we saw, a lot of brands jump onto the resale bandwagon, particularly in 2022 and 2023.

And there's been a little bit of scaling back, but not very significant. There are still many more brands that are active in resale. But they really have to think about the role of resale within the organization and aligning all the different parts. Like resale has a customer acquisition part. There's a marketing component to it. There's an ESG component. There's an e-commerce component and maybe even a physical component. So tying all those together and making sure it's not just...

you know, stuck in one silo that isn't interacting with other parts of the company. You guys know that meme that's like blank is a recession indicator. Are you familiar with this one? Yes. Like Lorde releasing a new album. That's a recession indicator. Like things that happened sort of last time we saw a recession. This is like people leaning into resale, people thrifting more and more. That's a recession indicator. Yeah.

I think the resale and thrifting trends are really prevalent among younger consumers and Gen Z in particular. It's really mainstream, particularly platforms like Depop, because it's not even something that you have to think about, really. If you're a young consumer, you just think of fashion and whether you buy something new or secondhand, it can still reflect personal style. We saw a big shout out.

for resale or secondhand fashion at the Met Gala earlier this month when eBay got a few shout outs from Chappelle Rhone. Her costume was made from repurposed styles on eBay and the couple of celebrities, big influencers,

Emma Chamberlain and the stylist Law Roach, they both accessorized with their eBay finds. And so it was kind of a big moment for eBay and resale more broadly to be on the red carpet, so to speak. Law Roach had a weird eBay find. What was his?

He had some of his accessories, like whatever his outfit was – I think he had some pins. I want to say they were silver pins. We don't need it. We don't need it. And Emma Chamberlain, maybe her glasses came from eBay. They were good glasses too. So resale is once again having a moment. Obviously very popular with Gen Z.

Do we see this trend toward resale, toward the circular economy sticking around if and when, if or when the tariffs subside?

I think we might see another dip in the more mainstream, broader consumer activity as consumers feel that they're able to afford more new items. They may turn away from resale, particularly in categories like toys. But I think the longer-term generational shift is here to stay, particularly as Gen Z ages up and become parents, and then they start thinking about...

you know, what to do with their baby items. They buy things on Facebook marketplace, they'll sell them there. They'll look at toys. Nobody wants a house cluttered with lots of plastic things they're no longer using. So they will turn to platforms or ways to reintegrate them into the circular economy because I think we all feel bad about just throwing things away and putting them in a landfill.

when someone else could find use of it, whether they're actually making money from it or just being reused through something like a buy-nothing group. Yeah, I think I guess I'm a little more skeptical about whether there will be a sort of long-term uptick in adoption just because we talk a lot about Gen Zs and millennials being bigger users of resale, but they're also bigger buyers of fast fashion, right? So I think if you look at it from a sustainability perspective, maybe...

It's not going to stick around for that reason. So if you take the price component out of it, is there a reason for people to stick with resale? I'm not as sure. And the idea being that if the tariffs subside, that's taking that price component out of it? But it also doesn't look like tariffs will entirely subside. At least we have a little built-in increase in the prices, as you mentioned earlier, even lower tariffs or still tariffs that will have an impact on

And we could see something happen like what's happened in the UK where the cost of living crisis there has really allowed new players to thrive like Vinted, which started out in Lithuania and really took off in the UK and other parts of Europe as well over the last couple of years.

and may well be on its way to making a push in the U.S. next. Yeah, I mean, even Bill Gates' daughter is getting in on the resale action, right? She just launched an app that's supposed to help price comparison shop across resale platforms. So, you know, I think there is definitely interest there. I'm just not sure whether the behaviors that pop up now during this time of economic uncertainty are sticky enough to last past tariffs.

That's how I feel for electronics in particular. I think that people are willing to trade down and buy refurbished electronics. You see ads for refurbished electronics marketplaces on the subway all the time. But when, if they have more money, I think that's one of the first places that people trade back up.

But I think in the longer term trend, the other part that could help spur more adoption or just overall usage is in those tech tools, like you mentioned, price comparison tools and also AI-powered tools that can just help consumers find exactly what they're looking for in the heaps of...

digital listings for resale across platforms. So that's the next big challenge, I think. Yeah. I mean, that's the biggest challenge with resale consistently is how hard it is to scale both from a like SKU level, like taking pictures of products and listing, which is one of the reasons why like peer-to-peer Depop type platforms

platforms are so popular. And from a search perspective, I am currently trying to find a bridesmaid's dress in a specific color on resale platforms. And I am finding that you can't really make that search and get the results that you want. Yeah, there's still...

much bigger investment from the shopper required into trying to figure out what the right keywords are, what filters to use to narrow down to what you're looking for. And I think this is where AI tools can gradually help improve just like things like even visual search or image search where you can take a picture of what you're looking for. Maybe you'll be able to draw an image of what you're looking for or have

generative AI create an image of what you want and refine that and then send that out to kind of scour all of the resale sites to find a match. We did it again. We started with the topic of tariffs and circular economy and we ended on generative AI. Congratulations. Well, that is all we have time for today. If anyone has a purple bridesmaid's dress they're trying to get rid of, let me know. Thank you for being here, Rachel.

Thanks, Sarah. Thank you, Skye. Thanks for having me again. Thank you to our listeners and our team that edits the podcast. We'll be back next Wednesday with another episode of Reimagining Retail, an eMarketer podcast. And on Friday, join Marcus for another episode of the Behind the Numbers show, an eMarketer podcast made possible by Giphy.