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Bank of Israel Governor Amir Yaron Talks Markets During Middle East Conflict
2025/6/25
Bloomberg Talks
A
Amir Yaron
Amir Yaron: 自从10月7日事件发生后，以色列展现出了惊人的经济韧性。尽管我们距离事件前的状态还有一段距离，但我们已经看到了经济的复苏迹象，包括投资的增加。我们对伊朗核设施采取的军事行动，虽然造成了大约相当于GDP 1%的预算成本，但市场似乎认为这降低了以色列的地缘政治风险。目前，加沙局势和人质问题仍然对经济构成压力。在财政方面，以色列致力于保持负责任的立场，并通过财政巩固措施来控制债务与GDP的比率。展望未来，我们需要重新评估民用和国防支出之间的平衡。谢克尔的升值对降低通货膨胀有帮助，但劳动力短缺可能会抵消这种影响，因此我们在制定货币政策时需要谨慎，依赖数据。如果加沙局势能够得到可持续的解决，并且能够进一步扩大亚伯拉罕协议，那么以色列的经济前景将更加光明。
Deep Dive
This chapter analyzes the economic consequences of the recent conflicts involving Israel, including the war with Iran and the ongoing situation in Gaza. It examines the immediate costs, the potential for increased defense spending, and the overall impact on the Israeli economy.
- The war with Iran cost approximately 1% of Israel's GDP.
- Israel demonstrated economic resilience despite the conflict, with growth around its potential.
- The geopolitical risk to Israel has decreased, as indicated by the appreciation of the shekel and reduction in CDS.
- The ongoing Gaza conflict and hostage situation remain economic concerns.
- Israel must reassess its budget priorities, balancing civilian and defense expenditures.
Shownotes Transcript