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ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane Talks European Inflation
2025/4/24
Bloomberg Talks
P
Philip Lane
Philip Lane: 我认为本次会议具有里程碑意义，最新的数据显示通货膨胀率已经下降，接近我们的目标。服务业通胀的下降以及工资动态低于预期，表明欧洲通胀正在安全地回落至目标水平。虽然贸易政策的不确定性仍然存在，但也有新的进展，例如德国财政政策的突破以及其他欧洲国家的财政政策讨论，为欧洲经济带来了新的机遇。从长期来看，更多的财政支持和国内需求增长将增强欧洲经济的韧性，并有助于实现2%的通胀目标。欧元升值和能源价格下跌带来了通缩压力，但同时也有投资组合的转变。欧洲经济正在复苏，国内需求增长将推动经济持续增长，即使受到美国贸易政策的影响，欧洲经济也具有韧性，能够保持增长。中国正在关注国内需求增长，这将部分抵消美国贸易政策的影响。欧洲央行不预先承诺任何利率路径，但目前经济增长和通货膨胀情况不需要采取过于激进的措施。
Deep Dive
The ECB's recent Governing Council meeting marked a shift in focus. While bringing inflation back to the target remains a priority, recent data shows progress. New challenges, such as trade policy uncertainty and fiscal policy changes in Germany, are now key discussion points.
- Recent data shows inflation is dropping and wage dynamics are lower than expected.
- Trade policy uncertainty remains a significant factor.
- Germany's fiscal policy breakthrough is a positive development, although its impact on other European countries is still uncertain.
Shownotes Transcript