Former MI6 Head Talks China Security Risks, Trade War Fallout
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What makes Thrivent different? Financial services and generosity programs are combined to help you build a financial roadmap for the future, while also creating opportunities to give back along the way. Visit Thrivent.com to learn more. Thrivent, where money means more. Yeah, of course, that's the story we'll be continuing to bring you coverage of throughout the program this morning. A Bloomberg editorial published this week, though, has a stark headline, a trade war with China could lead...

to real conflict. It warns that although the costs of the US's trade war are in the trillions of dollars, the cost of escalating with China could be much higher amidst all the tariff chaos. Just to highlight some other stories on the security issues that we have seen this week, the Wall Street Journal reporting that Chinese officials implied to the US they were responsible for recent major cyber attacks.

The UK's head of the military made the first trip to Beijing in 10 years. And Ukraine's President Vladimir Zelenskyy claims to have captured Chinese nationals fighting for Russia. So beyond the economics, how is the world shifting in response to the Trump administration's policies? To discuss, we're joined by Richard Dearlove, the former head of MI6 in studio. Good morning. Thank you very much for being with us. Should we be more concerned about the trade war resulting in a real war?

Well, that's taking a big leap in my opinion. I think at the moment the trade war doesn't imply, let's say, strategic military conflict with China. I think China themselves are keen to avoid that sort of escalation. OK, the elephant in the room in the background is how the Chinese will, in the medium, to long-term behave over Taiwan.

We talk about a Taiwan crisis all the time, but I think the likelihood is if the Chinese want to pressure Taiwan, it's an issue of a blockade rather than any...

more serious military initiative. And in recent weeks, the Chinese have been quite aggressive in terms of exercising off the Taiwanese coast. I mean, demonstrating the way that they could line up naval and other forces to blockade the country. So I think everybody is in the media making...

dire predictions about how this could escalate. And at the moment, we're still in the world of optics rather than outcomes. We really don't know where things are going to end. And I would expect myself people step back from the brink if we get into more deterioration. I mean, I would predict eventually a negotiation over tariffs with China.

Where are we at this moment in terms of international relations? They seem to be shifting. What's your big takeaway from that? Well, of course they're shifting. I mean, we've been talking about the end of Pax Americana for a very long time. And I guess the arrival of the Trump administration has finally blown up the last remains of that. So we have no...

structured international security system which we have rested on very heavily in the past and has given let's say stability to global markets but let's face it since 2008 since the banking crisis we have had a situation where political decision making has been more important than

I mean, the political decision-making has driven economic considerations. And, I mean, we've had that through the banking crisis, through COVID, and we've now certainly got it with the Trump administration. I mean, this isn't a new phenomenon. It's a trend in international affairs which has been developing very significantly over a longish period of time. And I'm surprised that everybody is so surprised when we had pretty clear predictions that this is the direction things were going in.

I appreciate your more measured tone, perhaps, on some of these headlines. But I wonder, are you more pessimistic about the stable world order now than you were before January? How much has your view, given your experience at MI6, shifted on how safe a world we're living in? I'm...

I'm really in two minds as to how to answer that question, and I'm not going to give you a clear-cut answer either way. I just don't think we yet know. Look, the big problem in international relations is really how to accommodate the relationship with China and the United States. That is the sort of existential question to which we don't have a clear answer. And that's for everyone. It's not just those two countries interacting with each other. No, no, this is about global security.

And it's not the Cold War because we have intertwined economies. I mean, our economic engagement with China is massive, but we've created a situation.

which I think Trump is reacting to, where we have treated China as a normal trading partner. The terms on which they entered the WTA were such that China's been treated very favorably. What the Trump administration, whether you like it or not, and he's doing it very aggressive, is to, I think, trying to create a more level playing field.

to get from where we are to where many would like to be. I mean, interestingly, if you go back to the first Trump administration, he created a new attitude, a new policy towards China. Biden didn't change that. He carried it on, and we are now into a further escalation. And there's nothing particularly surprising about this. OK, the tariffs have been massively disrupted recently,

They've been suspended for 90 days, but not with regard to China. And that, I think, shows you what the core of the, as it were, objective, if there is an objective, is to try to change the nature of the relationship. I mean, Trump has achieved things that you have... I mean, he's made the Europeans pay for their own defence, which is a very positive step. And he's also, you know, exploded the rather...

ineffective way that we've handled commercial relations with China. I mean, I don't think any of us expected things to happen so fast and in such an extreme fashion as they're happening now. And, you know, we're at this point of extremism,

But we don't know what the outcome will be. Will there be a negotiation with China? Probably yes, in my opinion, because both sides at some point will need it. How does Britain insert itself into that global conversation? Because last week we were talking about Britain being spared the worst of Donald Trump's tariffs. We're in a sort of in-between situation and we are quite fortunate that...

because we sit independently outside the EU now so we can follow our own foreign policy decisions, and we have still a privileged relationship with the United States. So maybe we have a constructive role to play, but it's a role of soft power. There's not much hard power that the UK can exercise in this crisis. But do you see that relationship with the US demonstrably changing?

As so much is changing in terms of the US relations with the rest of the world? We don't know yet. I don't think yet it's degraded in the way that people are saying. I think we still have the special relationship intact and the UK is treading very carefully at the moment.

And I think it's hopeful that it will do some sort of free trade deal with this administration, which it wasn't going to do with the Biden administration and wasn't going to do with Obama either. What about the intelligence community in all of this as well? We've had revelations. We're talking about the leaks from messaging apps, technology, the risk of cyber attacks. Is the position more precarious now? And where are, I suppose, European readiness to deal with those sort of issues?

Well, I would separate Europe... I mean, I would separate the EU out of this at the moment. Now, you're talking to me about the intelligence relationship between the UK and the US, because if you are putting the emphasis there, you know, Five Eyes is fine, it's institutionally strong, it's been through many crises since the original agreement between the US and the UK in 1947, you know, the UQSA agreement, which was basically a SIGINT treaty, and that agreement

still functions, it still works, and it's still very important. The issue of, let's say, the intelligence relationship between UK, Europe, Europe, EU, United States, these are quite complicated issues. And this is a, you know, you can't make generalizations.

which are sweeping about the quality of where this has got to. It just doesn't function like that because there are all sorts of issues that the professionals have to consider, like source security, what's shared, what classification you use in an intelligence exchange. I mean, I'd need half an hour to explain it all to you.

Five Eyes is probably in better shape than people realize. And I've got to read the article I wrote in The Spectator three weeks ago. It explains it in some detail. Further reading for our listeners. Thank you very much, Richard Gerloff, for joining us, former head of MI6. There are presentations.

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