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cover of episode Former White House Chief Economist Glenn Hubbard Talks Fed Policy, Tax Bill

Former White House Chief Economist Glenn Hubbard Talks Fed Policy, Tax Bill

2025/6/18
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Glenn Hubbard: 我认为美联储今年晚些时候可能会降息，但过早降息存在风险，因为这可能会导致长期收益率上升，从而抵消降息的效果。虽然零售销售数据和就业市场正在走弱，表明经济正在放缓，但我仍然担心通货膨胀尚未完全解决，并且可能会保持在美联储的目标水平之上。如果美联储过早降息，可能会显得操之过急。虽然降息本身不会对经济活动产生重大影响，但它会发出美联储正在转向降低短期利率的信号，这可能会影响经济活动。此外，我认为美联储的目标是控制通货膨胀，而高额赤字和政府债务会对财政部必须支付的实际利率构成上行压力。因此，降息的理由应该是通胀问题已经解决或实体经济存在问题。虽然降低利率肯定会有助于财政政策，但政府本身在这方面也扮演着重要角色。

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Glenn Hubbard, Columbia Business School Dean Emeritus and former White House chief economist discusses the upcoming Federal Reserve rate decision and the path forward for interest rates this year as well as the tax bill making its way through Congress.

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