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cover of episode Governor of State of Virginia Glenn Allen Youngkin Talks Tariffs

Governor of State of Virginia Glenn Allen Youngkin Talks Tariffs

2025/4/15
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格伦·杨金:尽管特朗普政府的关税政策会造成短期市场波动和不确定性,但我相信长期来看,这将带来新的贸易协议和机遇,最终有利于弗吉尼亚州的经济发展。特朗普政府的经济计划包含几个主要目标:通过关税重新平衡贸易、振兴制造业和中产阶级、恢复财政责任、建立能源主导地位以及通过放松管制改善美国的商业环境。目前90天的关税暂停期为达成新的贸易协议提供了机会,预计未来会有持续的关税,但幅度会根据新的贸易协定有所调整。弗吉尼亚州的经济发展势头强劲,在过去三年中吸引了创纪录的投资和就业增长,为应对关税政策带来的潜在冲击奠定了坚实的基础。尽管关税政策的具体实施方法存在争议,但特朗普总统始终如一地强调其目标是纠正长期以来的贸易不平衡,并通过谈判达成公平互利的贸易协议。尽管短期内存在不确定性,但弗吉尼亚州仍然吸引了大量的长期投资,这表明企业对美国,特别是弗吉尼亚州的长期经济前景充满信心。弗吉尼亚州正在积极建设教育和培训体系,以帮助工人适应新的就业需求,并应对联邦政府裁员可能带来的就业冲击。虽然联邦政府的裁员是不可避免的,但弗吉尼亚州拥有大量的就业机会,并且正在积极帮助受影响的工人获得新的技能和就业机会。特朗普政府的全面政策议程(包括贸易重置、财政平衡、能源主导地位、制造业回流和中产阶级恢复)虽然复杂,但其各个组成部分都对美国的长期成功至关重要,弗吉尼亚州的经验可以作为其成功的缩影。我相信特朗普政府的政策最终会成功,并带来长期经济机遇,因为其各项政策相互补充,共同促进美国的长期繁荣。特朗普政府经济计划的成功取决于几个关键因素:能源主导地位、财政责任、制造业回流以及中产阶级的复兴。我目前的首要任务是确保弗吉尼亚州在未来一年继续繁荣发展,之后再考虑未来的职业规划。

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This chapter analyzes Virginia's economic strengths and vulnerabilities in the face of President Trump's tariffs. Governor Youngkin highlights Virginia's robust economic growth, record investment, and job creation, emphasizing the state's resilience despite potential trade disruptions.
  • Virginia exported nearly $22 billion in goods in 2017.
  • The state experienced record investment ($100 billion in three years) and job growth.
  • Virginia has 250,000 open jobs.

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Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts, radio, news. Let's keep it on trade. President Trump's tariff policy set to impact leadership at the state level. The Commonwealth of Virginia exporting nearly $22 billion worth of goods abroad last year, placing it in the top half of states and accounting for tens of thousands of jobs, according to U.S. government data. Joining us now, the Republican Governor-Elect.

of Virginia, Glenn Youngkin. Governor Youngkin, good to see you, sir. - Great to be with you, thanks for having me. It's super to be back in studio with you, so I just appreciate you making time for me. - Well, thanks for dropping by. Let's talk about how exposed you might be to this tariff push. You've got some very large aerospace and defense companies in the state. How are you helping those companies and individuals that might be affected by some of this in the meantime? - John, I think we have to step back first and put the current moment in the tariff evolution in context.

From while he was running all the way up until today, President Trump has been really consistent on the elements of his economic plan. First, he's gonna use tariffs to reset trade balances and decades of bad deals he's talked about. You've heard these words out of his mouth over and over again.

Second of all, he's gonna make sure that manufacturing is reassured and that we reinflate or reinvigorate the hollowed out middle class. Third, we're gonna reestablish fiscal responsibility in Washington. Fourth, we're gonna reestablish energy dominance. And finally, through deregulation, we're gonna make it even better to do business in America.

And those elements are all in motion at the same time. The trade moment for us and the tariff moment for us is also this 90-day pause, which is giving the opportunity for deals. And every cabinet member has repeated there's 75 countries in motion right now.

And I would expect that there will be some significant trade deals struck. I do think that there will be a level of ongoing tariffs. The 10% number wasn't one picked out of a hat, and they call that the base tariff.

But, you know, I'm a governor watching, but I do expect that there will be deals cut. And those deals, importantly, will be with some of our largest trading partners, India and Japan and Korea. And so this is what's going to happen over the next many, many months. And most importantly, I think that will bring some confidence to the market that this reset, which has to happen, and disruption is part of a reset, will open up long-term opportunity. Now, Virginia, Virginia,

Virginia, we're seeing that long-term opportunity every day, and that's through our economic development pipeline. We've had an incredibly robust three years. We've had record investment or commitments from businesses expanding in Virginia, $100 billion in three years, by far the largest amount in that time period. We've seen record job growth. Virginia went from bottom third in job growth to top 3, 5, 10 every year in job growth. And that has allowed us to run surplus after surplus after surplus.

The net of that is that we have open jobs in Virginia, 250,000 open jobs for folks to take. But on top of that, our economic development pipeline has been as full as it's ever been. And we're seeing businesses, international companies want to come to the United States. We're viewed as the top state in America for business and they want to come to Virginia. And so that's a really good foundation for us.

as there is a period of disruption, but I think there's a long-term opportunity and I think Virginia will really do well. - We can talk about the long-term opportunity in the fuller policy platform. I do just want to keep it on trade just for a moment. On trade, the methodology, it does feel like was pulled from a hat in the last few weeks and the criticism we hear around this table quite a lot.

They will acknowledge the problem and they will acknowledge that the president has articulated that consistently and well over the period of decades, not just weeks and months. It's the remedy to that problem. At the moment, what we hear from the bank CEOs, from investors, is this economy has drifted into a wait and see moment. That they aren't going to make those big capex decisions until they really know the rules of the game, the rules of the road. Do you think we'll know the answer to that within 90 days? I think we'll see a lot of clarity.

over the course of the next, now, 80 days, I guess, or 82 days. - I'm losing count. - But the net of it is that President Trump was clear, he's continued to be clear, that in resetting bad trade deals over the last decades and reestablishing reciprocal trade opportunities, by the way, with nations that are allies, China's a whole different topic,

But with nations that are our allies, we just need fair trade, and we haven't had it. And so, and to reset those trade imbalances, you see him do what he does well, which is create space for negotiating. And I think that's exactly what's happening. When the first weekend after April 2nd, you read in every publication that 75 countries had called within a day to start the negotiations, and you've already seen

those negotiations, at least reported in rumor, I think this will be this opportunity to take a big step in resetting this. And I think that's what the market needs to see. Part of the problem, I think, and you know this very well, having invested heavily as a co-CEO of Carlyle and investing in infrastructure, which takes a long time, there's a maturity mismatch between when some of this negotiation is happening, when these tariffs go on, and how long it

takes to bring that investment to the United States. There is a lack of clarity about whether those policies will be continued in perpetuity, and it's leading to paralysis at so many companies. What do you tell the companies in your jurisdiction who come to you and say, how can I plan? How can I hire? How can I invest when this could change? I don't even understand the parameters we're talking about. Yeah, I have to...

disagree with you on the long-term planning because we're seeing a pipeline of economic investment that has been as full as it's ever been. And these are long-term investments. Fortune 50 companies wanting to build in America and in Virginia, hopefully, if we can recruit them there,

And these are long-term investments. And you saw NVIDIA yesterday talk about $500 billion. We've seen most of the big pharmaceutical companies commit to building in the United States. We're seeing technology investments, advanced manufacturing, all in the United States. These are long-term investments. I think the difference in a lot of people's understanding is that during market ups and downs, well, yes, IPOs get postponed. And yes, corporate deals get postponed.

But these long-term commitments are actually coming in very large numbers, and that's good for states like Virginia. I mean, listen, we're in the SEC of economic development. I compete every day with Tennessee and North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Texas.

and we've got to compete and I think that much of that investment will come to this region and that is a long-term commitment and so the uncertainty in the near term yes I get it I understand it but the long-term expectation that America is gonna be the best place in the world to invest is clear and real and that's what we're seeing in our economic development pipeline. There's also an issue of staffing all of this up and how we do this when not only is there a maturity mismatch but also potentially a skills mismatch. I know that your state has been

significantly affected by some of the doge cuts and you've talked about that and how you plan to provide for some of these workers but how do you reskill people to work for different types of jobs given that they've worked in a very specific field and there might not be jobs in that field and what we're trying to build up hasn't been there for a long time? Well,

First, you go to work and prepare an education and training ecosystem to do exactly that. We've been doing this for the last three years in Virginia, which is resetting the career pass and the education pass for lots of Virginians.

with opportunity. And today we have an incredibly high labor participation rate. It's bounced back from lows during the pandemic and the previous administration to near one of the national highs. We have one of the best workforce training programs in America. We were just named for the third year in a row of having the best customized job training program in America. This is what you do, you go to work.

I do think that the expectation that there will be job losses, particularly out of the federal government, is real. We haven't seen them yet that much in Virginia. I mean, our first-time claims on unemployment are still at historic lows. But listen, I do think that the federal government's downsizing is necessary. Listen, we're at $37.5 trillion of debt, $2 trillion a year of incremental debt.

We can't do that. And so resizing the federal government and recognizing fiscal responsibility is critical to the future of the country is real. What does that mean in a state like Virginia? We have a lot of federal workers, a lot. Now, a disproportionate amount of those are in the defense and in the intelligence and national security area, and we're seeing more money go into those areas.

but I still expect that there will be real disruption for some folks in Virginia. My dad lost his job twice when I was growing up, and I've seen this in families my own, and it is really hard. And that's why a pathway to a new career is so important. Because of our economic growth, we have 250,000 open but unfilled jobs in Virginia, and over 100,000 of those require a bachelor's degree. These are good jobs, but they're also jobs that pay well.

And so opening up that pathway to folks who find themselves with job loss is really, really important. And so we launched something called Virginia Has Jobs. And it's for folks to get jobs in Virginia from all over the country. But at a time when we're seeing this dislocation from the federal government, it's a real opportunity pathway. 250,000 jobs.

pathways for training, coaching, resume writing, but also for making sure folks know how to file for unemployment and keep their health care. This is a pathway that I'm really hoping that people who do have job disruption can find a way to a great career in Virginia because Virginia has lots and lots of jobs, and people can go to virginiahasjobs.com and actually find one. And that's part of, I think, this movement of really...

public sector employment to private sector employment. And we've seen it in Virginia. We've had great job growth over the last three years. It's led to record surplus after surplus after surplus, which has allowed us to reduce taxes. It's allowed us to invest in education and law enforcement. And by the way, in economic development and job training. But it's also, I think, changed people's view of long-term in Virginia. We used to have

For 10 years, we had more people move away from the Commonwealth of Virginia than move into from the other 49 states. And last year, we became one of the top importers of talent in America. So this works. And at a time when President Trump, again, is trying to run a...

very, very full policy agenda, resetting trade, balancing the federal budget, making America dominant again in energy, reshoring manufacturing and restoring this middle class which has been eviscerated over the last 20 years and doing all of that while deregulating to make America even a better place for business. I think we can look at Virginia and say, hey, we've seen at least a little microcosm of that and it works.

Governor, the stakes are high. I'm pleased you mentioned your experience growing Gubb. You, like me, we were professional dishwashers. You went on to have a fantastic career leading Carlisle and now you're dedicating yourself to public service. There are now people much younger than us who believe that dream is not available to them, that upward mobility is no longer something available in the United States. And at the moment, as you know, filling stadiums around this country

as left-wing people like Congresswoman Ocasio-Cortez, Senator Bernie Sanders. If this administration gets this wrong, we could see a swing in the pendulum all the way to the far left. It's not unthinkable. You can see that taking place. How high are the stakes? What happens if this administration screws it up?

Well, I first and foremost don't believe they will. And therefore, I think what people will see over the course of this administration is the realization of this long-term opportunity.

And that's why all of the elements that are in play are critical. There are so many people in government who believe there's one policy solution, this magic wand that will fix everything. This is an incredibly complex economic transition model. And that's why having all of the elements in play at one time while complicating is critical.

because they're each going to contribute for the long-term success. And if you peel out one, energy dominance, getting energy prices to a place where they're sustainably affordable at the gas pump and in the supply chains, critical. America should basically dominate the world of power and energy. Making sure we have a balanced fiscal moment, not running $2 trillion deficits, critical for the long-term success of America.

reshoring manufacturing and think about what's happened over the last decades where we watched critical, very high paying jobs move around the world away from America and hollow out our middle class. That's the opportunity that has really been missing because we've seen literally the middle class not participate in the economic growth of America over the past few decades. This is what this opportunity is all about.

And I've said many times, I think the number one job we have as Americans is to help this administration be successful. And that success will translate into an even better America than we have today. - We've said it around this table, we hope they are. Just a final question, what's the future of Governor Youngkin? What do you wanna do next?

Well, I finish up next January and I just want to begin by saying this has been the most purposeful moment in my entire professional career and I've loved it. And I want to make sure this last year is incredibly productive for Virginia. Listen, you only get four years in a governor's job in Virginia and I've got one year left and I got to get four years of work done in this year because we've had a great first three years and I want to get a second term jammed into this last year.

But I also recognize that there are a lot of folks who spend all their time planning for their next job. I'm not one of those folks. I'm gonna spend 100%, if not 150% of my effort making sure that Virginia continues to thrive.

We've got a really important election this year. Our lieutenant governor, Winston Merle Sears, has been a great partner for me through this entire economic revival in Virginia, and I want to make sure that she gets the baton. I think voters will trust us and trust her and want to elect her the next governor of Virginia, and then we'll decide what I do after I've watched her be inaugurated.

I'll decide after I'm done in January 2026. I had to try, Governor. It's good to see you. I will repeat, though, the most important thing that we need to be doing right now is to be helping this administration be successful. And I think the elements are in place.

It is a complicated set of movements in order to reset so many things at one time. But I have great faith that the long-term opportunities really are going to be great. And we're seeing that in companies who are investing all across Virginia and America. For the good of this country, I think a lot of people agree with you. We hope you're right. Thank you, Governor. I appreciate your time. Thank you, sir. The Virginia Governor, Glenn Youngkin there. Thank you very much.

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