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cover of episode JPMorgan Asset Management Chief Global Strategist David Kelly Talks Inflation

JPMorgan Asset Management Chief Global Strategist David Kelly Talks Inflation

2025/4/10
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David Kelly
首席全球策略师和全球市场洞察策略团队负责人,拥有超过20年的金融行业经验。
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David Kelly: 我认为当前经济的疲软迹象,特别是旅游业的低迷,预示着未来通货膨胀的加剧。关税和供应链问题将导致通货膨胀,但同时经济也存在明显的放缓迹象。当前经济放缓的风险比通货膨胀更令人担忧。通货膨胀通常先于经济停滞出现,当前的劳动力供应下降、贸易障碍以及政府支出削减等因素都将导致经济放缓。如果缺乏重大的财政刺激,经济衰退的风险将大于通货膨胀的风险。长期来看,我不太担心通货膨胀,因为关税最终会撤销,并且长期利率处于合理水平,但我担心经济整体缺乏活力。

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David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, says this is "the calm before the inflation storm." Kelly says he expects an economic slowdown. “What we’re seeing is a lot of softness in the travel industry, which I think is going to get worse over the course of this year.” He is joined by Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz, and Annmarie Hordern.

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