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Richard Haass, Senior Counselor with Centerview Partners & President Emeritus at Council on Foreign Relations Talks Retaliation From Iran
2025/6/23
Bloomberg Talks
R
Richard Haass
Richard Haass: 在以色列采取行动之后，美国选择了对伊朗进行精确军事打击的道路。我认为现在主动权已经转移到伊朗手中，他们将决定局势如何发展。我个人认为伊朗不太可能采取报复行动，他们更关注政权的生存和巩固。尽管如此，伊朗仍然具备多种军事能力，例如发射导弹、干扰航运、进行网络攻击或实施恐怖主义。然而，我认为伊朗目前的首要任务不是对美国进行报复。我始终认为，政权更迭不应被视为一种严肃的外交政策目标，因为其结果往往难以预测，且可能导致核材料落入不良势力之手。如果伊朗发生政权更迭，那也只能源于其内部变革，而非外部干预。
Deep Dive
Following the Israeli attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, the initiative has shifted to Iran. Richard Haass discusses Iran's potential responses, their capabilities, and priorities, suggesting that regime survival is their primary focus. While Iran possesses asymmetrical warfare capabilities, a direct military retaliation against the U.S. is deemed unlikely in the short term.
- Shift in initiative to Iran after Israeli attacks
- Iran's focus on regime survival
- Unlikely immediate retaliation, but asymmetric warfare capabilities remain
Shownotes Transcript