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cover of episode 經濟學人|回顧2024展望2025!評選2024年度國家?FT社論:全球對抗通貨膨脹的解析 陳鳳馨 ╳ 丁學文

經濟學人|回顧2024展望2025!評選2024年度國家?FT社論:全球對抗通貨膨脹的解析 陳鳳馨 ╳ 丁學文

2024/12/30
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馨天地 & 馨天地

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陈凤馨:就针对2024年全球经济形势与政治变革,特别是特朗普当选对全球经济的影响,以及对2025年的展望,进行了深入探讨。并对经济学人杂志的年度回顾文章和金融时报社论进行了详细解读,分析了通货膨胀、利率变化、以及对未来经济走势的预测。 此外,还讨论了西方主流媒体对全球趋势解读的局限性,以及对传统精英政治的反思。 最后,对经济学人评选的2024年度国家——孟加拉国,以及奢侈品牌产业的现状和未来发展趋势进行了分析。 丁学文:对2024年《经济学人》杂志的年度回顾进行了详细解读,指出多边秩序崩塌,全球进一步撕裂,但同时也展现了资本主义和民主制度的韧性以及专制政权的弱点。 分析了美国大选、经济增长、中美竞争等重要事件,并对2025年进行了展望,指出《经济学人》的评论带有自由主义色彩,在中东问题上缺乏客观性,并且在对全球趋势的解读上存在进退失据的情况,未能完全适应时代变化。 对《金融时报》社论进行了分析,指出全球抗通胀之战陷入停滞,并可能出现分化,川普当选和美国国内的不确定性是主要因素。 对经济学人评选的2024年度国家——孟加拉国表示,这一选择与文章中对民主制度的强调存在一定矛盾,因为孟加拉的政权更迭并非通过选举实现。 最后,对奢侈品牌产业的现状和未来发展趋势进行了分析,指出过去推动奢侈品增长的全球化和“民主化”趋势已经失效,但超级富豪的消费仍然强劲,奢侈品牌需要重新调整策略以适应新的市场环境。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why did The Economist choose Bangladesh as the 2024 Country of the Year?

Bangladesh was chosen as the 2024 Country of the Year by The Economist because it successfully overthrew a long-standing dictator, Hasina, through student-led protests. This marked a significant step towards a more liberal government, despite challenges like corruption and Islamic extremism. The country has since restored order and stabilized its economy under a provisional government led by Nobel Peace Prize winner Yunus.

What were the key factors contributing to the global luxury industry's decline in 2024?

The global luxury industry faced a decline in 2024 due to reduced spending by the Western middle class and a shift in Chinese consumer behavior, where younger generations opted for cheaper alternatives like plastic bags instead of luxury items. Additionally, inflation and the end of high-growth periods further impacted the industry. The two major growth engines—globalization, particularly China's integration, and the democratization of luxury—also lost momentum.

What were the major economic trends highlighted in The Economist's 2024 review?

The Economist's 2024 review highlighted several key economic trends: the resilience of capitalist and democratic systems, the exposure of weaknesses in authoritarian regimes like China, and the significant role of elections in political reform. It also noted the economic slowdown in China, the rise of the U.S. economy, and the challenges faced by Europe due to political instability and economic weakness.

How did the global fight against inflation evolve in 2024 according to the Financial Times?

The global fight against inflation in 2024 saw initial success with price pressures dropping, leading central banks to consider rate cuts. However, new inflationary threats emerged by year-end, making future rate paths uncertain. The U.S. Federal Reserve's rate cuts were slower than expected, and inflation expectations rose, impacting the S&P 500. The FT also highlighted concerns over Trump's potential trade policies and their inflationary effects.

What were the significant political events in 2024 that impacted global dynamics?

Significant political events in 2024 included Trump's re-election as U.S. President, which shifted global alliances and economic policies. The year also saw 76 countries holding elections, reflecting a global trend towards political reform. Additionally, the collapse of the post-WWII multilateral order and the rise of authoritarian challenges to Western democracies were key themes, with countries like Russia and China facing internal and external pressures.

Chapters
对 2024 年全球主要事件进行回顾,包括美国总统大选、人工智能发展、利率变化、汽车产业变革以及地缘政治局势等。文章既肯定了资本主义和民主制度的韧性,也指出了专制政权的弱点,并对未来发展趋势进行了展望。
  • 川普成功连任美国总统
  • 人工智能技术发展引发的争议
  • 全球央行利率政策调整
  • 汽车产业面临挑战
  • 地缘政治局势紧张

Shownotes Transcript

小額贊助連結:https://open.firstory.me/join/thehearsaychenfengxin 主持人:陳鳳馨 來賓:丁學文 主題:一週國際經濟趨勢 1、《經濟學人》2024年回顧 封面故事「What to make of 2024」經濟學人對2024年的回顧和2025年的展望。 2、盤點《經濟學人》 3、《倫敦金融時報》對抗全球通膨陷入停滯並出現分化 社論「The global inflation battle is stalling and diverging」對全球對抗通貨膨脹的解析。 4、《經濟學人》當國家卓越時 緒論板塊第四篇「When nations excel」《經濟學人》評選的 2024 年度國家。 5、《經濟學人》奢華出爐 商業板塊第一篇「Luxed out」全球奢侈品牌產業盤點。 ----- ▍聽更多:https://flow.page/thehearsay ▍粉絲團:https://www.facebook.com/TheHearSayChannel ▍合作贊助:[email protected] Powered by Firstory Hosting)