Japan's stock market is experiencing a resurgence in 2024 due to several factors, including government policies encouraging companies to buy back shares and increase dividends, which helps improve their price-to-book (PB) ratios. Additionally, Japan has finally emerged from a 30-year deflationary period, with mild inflation and wage growth contributing to a healthier economic environment. The Tokyo Stock Exchange has also implemented reforms to improve corporate governance and shareholder returns, further boosting investor confidence.
Inflation is crucial for Japan's economic recovery as it signals a shift away from decades of deflation. Mild inflation encourages consumer spending and business investment, creating a positive feedback loop. Japan's recent wage increases, driven by the annual 'Shunto' labor negotiations, have also contributed to a wage-price spiral, further supporting economic growth. This inflationary environment is beneficial for the stock market, as it increases corporate earnings and investor confidence.
Japan's corporate governance has improved significantly, with the Tokyo Stock Exchange requiring companies to maintain a price-to-book (PB) ratio above 1 or face delisting. This has forced companies to focus on shareholder returns, such as increasing dividends and share buybacks. Additionally, companies are being encouraged to improve their return on equity (ROE) by selling non-core assets and reducing cross-shareholdings, which has historically hindered efficiency and competitiveness.
Foreign investment in Japan's stock market is driven by several factors, including the country's mild inflation, improved corporate governance, and attractive valuations. The Tokyo Stock Exchange's reforms, such as requiring higher PB ratios and ROE, have made Japanese companies more investor-friendly. Additionally, Japan's low interest rates and the weak yen have created favorable conditions for foreign investors, particularly those looking for value stocks with growth potential.
Japan's NISA (Nippon Individual Savings Account) is a tax-advantaged investment account designed to encourage domestic investment in the stock market. The government has increased the investment limits and aims to double the number of NISA accounts by 2028. This initiative is significant because it helps channel more household savings into the stock market, providing a stable source of domestic investment and supporting long-term market growth.
Japanese financial stocks are performing well due to the overall recovery of the stock market and the potential for higher interest rates. As the economy improves, banks benefit from increased lending activity and wider interest rate margins. Additionally, financial institutions are seeing higher profits from their investments in the stock market, making them attractive to investors seeking both growth and dividend income.
Investing in Japanese ETFs carries risks such as market volatility, currency fluctuations, and potential overvaluation. Some ETFs may also experience high premiums due to high demand and limited supply, leading to inflated prices. Investors should carefully evaluate the underlying assets, fees, and liquidity of the ETF before investing. Additionally, Japan's economic recovery is still in its early stages, and any setbacks in inflation or corporate reforms could negatively impact stock performance.
Japan's historical economic performance was marked by rapid growth in the 1980s, followed by a prolonged period of stagnation and deflation after the asset bubble burst in the early 1990s. In contrast, the current recovery is driven by structural reforms, mild inflation, and improved corporate governance. While the stock market has recently reached new highs, it is still recovering from a 30-year decline, and the economy remains vulnerable to external shocks and demographic challenges.
日本股市終於擺脫失落的30年 , 在2024年創下收盤新高,刷新1989年日本泡沫經濟全盛時締造的歷史紀錄, 曾經是經濟巨擘的他們,近年來積極推動改革, 這一集邀請娶了日本太太,對經濟學有很深厚研究的台大博士YouTuber阿格力, 從總經和政策來分析日本的前景...
-- Hosting provided by SoundOn)