cover of episode EP1826【吳淡如X阿格力】現在前進日本還有賺頭嗎?

EP1826【吳淡如X阿格力】現在前進日本還有賺頭嗎?

2025/1/6
logo of podcast 吳淡如人生實用商學院

吳淡如人生實用商學院

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吴淡如
阿格力
Topics
吴淡如:投资需谨慎,需考虑时间因素及外部环境变化。过往信息不适用于当前市场状况,投资需关注当下市场动态。客观分析日本投资的获利潜力,而非仅关注个人因素。 建议投资者关注市场方向,定期定额投资是较好的方式。投资需衡量自身风险承受能力,并仔细阅读公开说明书。投资海外ETF需谨慎,注意溢价风险和回本时间。 阿格力:日本股市在2024年2月突破30年低点,今年回报率接近20%。日本经济已摆脱通缩,温和通胀对股市有利。连续两年加薪3%以上,形成薪资物价螺旋,推动经济增长。 日本股市低市净率导致市场不活跃,但政府政策推动企业提高股价净值比和股东权益回报率(ROE),并提高股息发放,改善企业基本面和提升股价。 日本人投资股市的比例低,市场未过热,外资流入规模有限。投资日本股市应关注本益比和市净率,而非股价指数。并非所有股票都会上涨,需谨慎选择。 野村日本价值动能高息ETF兼顾高成长和高股息,符合日本股市上涨原因,但投资需谨慎,避免追涨停板,注意溢价风险。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why is Japan's stock market experiencing a resurgence in 2024?

Japan's stock market is experiencing a resurgence in 2024 due to several factors, including government policies encouraging companies to buy back shares and increase dividends, which helps improve their price-to-book (PB) ratios. Additionally, Japan has finally emerged from a 30-year deflationary period, with mild inflation and wage growth contributing to a healthier economic environment. The Tokyo Stock Exchange has also implemented reforms to improve corporate governance and shareholder returns, further boosting investor confidence.

What role does inflation play in Japan's economic recovery?

Inflation is crucial for Japan's economic recovery as it signals a shift away from decades of deflation. Mild inflation encourages consumer spending and business investment, creating a positive feedback loop. Japan's recent wage increases, driven by the annual 'Shunto' labor negotiations, have also contributed to a wage-price spiral, further supporting economic growth. This inflationary environment is beneficial for the stock market, as it increases corporate earnings and investor confidence.

How has Japan's corporate governance changed to attract investors?

Japan's corporate governance has improved significantly, with the Tokyo Stock Exchange requiring companies to maintain a price-to-book (PB) ratio above 1 or face delisting. This has forced companies to focus on shareholder returns, such as increasing dividends and share buybacks. Additionally, companies are being encouraged to improve their return on equity (ROE) by selling non-core assets and reducing cross-shareholdings, which has historically hindered efficiency and competitiveness.

What are the key factors driving foreign investment in Japan's stock market?

Foreign investment in Japan's stock market is driven by several factors, including the country's mild inflation, improved corporate governance, and attractive valuations. The Tokyo Stock Exchange's reforms, such as requiring higher PB ratios and ROE, have made Japanese companies more investor-friendly. Additionally, Japan's low interest rates and the weak yen have created favorable conditions for foreign investors, particularly those looking for value stocks with growth potential.

What is the significance of Japan's NISA account for its stock market?

Japan's NISA (Nippon Individual Savings Account) is a tax-advantaged investment account designed to encourage domestic investment in the stock market. The government has increased the investment limits and aims to double the number of NISA accounts by 2028. This initiative is significant because it helps channel more household savings into the stock market, providing a stable source of domestic investment and supporting long-term market growth.

Why are Japanese financial stocks performing well recently?

Japanese financial stocks are performing well due to the overall recovery of the stock market and the potential for higher interest rates. As the economy improves, banks benefit from increased lending activity and wider interest rate margins. Additionally, financial institutions are seeing higher profits from their investments in the stock market, making them attractive to investors seeking both growth and dividend income.

What are the risks of investing in Japanese ETFs?

Investing in Japanese ETFs carries risks such as market volatility, currency fluctuations, and potential overvaluation. Some ETFs may also experience high premiums due to high demand and limited supply, leading to inflated prices. Investors should carefully evaluate the underlying assets, fees, and liquidity of the ETF before investing. Additionally, Japan's economic recovery is still in its early stages, and any setbacks in inflation or corporate reforms could negatively impact stock performance.

How does Japan's historical economic performance compare to its current recovery?

Japan's historical economic performance was marked by rapid growth in the 1980s, followed by a prolonged period of stagnation and deflation after the asset bubble burst in the early 1990s. In contrast, the current recovery is driven by structural reforms, mild inflation, and improved corporate governance. While the stock market has recently reached new highs, it is still recovering from a 30-year decline, and the economy remains vulnerable to external shocks and demographic challenges.

Chapters
本集邀請阿格力博士分析日本投資前景。從 90 年代日本泡沫經濟的興衰,到近年來日本積極推動的經濟改革,探討日本股市在 2024 年的表現及未來展望。重點在於投資政策受惠的股票,以及日本央行政策對股市的影響。
  • 日本股市在2024年創下歷史新高,但經歷了30年的低迷期。
  • 日本政府政策鼓勵企業回購股票、提高股息發放,以提升股市動能。
  • 日本經濟已開始復甦通膨,但通膨力道溫和。
  • 日本首相計劃提高基本薪資,以刺激經濟成長。

Shownotes Transcript

日本股市終於擺脫失落的30年 , 在2024年創下收盤新高,刷新1989年日本泡沫經濟全盛時締造的歷史紀錄, 曾經是經濟巨擘的他們,近年來積極推動改革, 這一集邀請娶了日本太太,對經濟學有很深厚研究的台大博士YouTuber阿格力, 從總經和政策來分析日本的前景...

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