Cracking the Trump Code: Our Next Big Bet
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Donald Trump is the master of chaos. He seems to constantly be doing or saying something that pulls the headlines away from something else. Think about the Gulf of America or accepting a luxury 747 airplane with no strings attached. That stuff keeps the media talking in circles. Even this morning, in just the first 10 minutes of the Today Show, they covered Trump's new push to make Canada the 51st state, the big, beautiful Trump spending bill, Trump's ongoing fight with Harvard,

Trump pardoning some reality TV stars who were convicted of tax evasion and bank fraud. Meanwhile, no mention of something else that he's been chipping away at that actually could be the thing that solves the huge government debt problem. And no, we're not talking about tariffs. That's another distraction. There's something else that you, if you haven't been paying attention, you might've missed. Today on Dumb Money, we are cracking the code and revealing our next big investment.

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Hey there, Dave here along with Chris and Jordan. We are Dumb Money. Welcome to Dumb Money Live. We are still waiting for Trump to sign an executive order about the almighty algorithm to stop YouTubers from having to beg for smashes to that like button. But for now, that's all we've got. So take a second. Go ahead. Apparently it still helps us out. Chris, Jordan, good morning. While we're waiting for everyone to find the like button, it's great to be back with you. Chris, it looks like you are in a hotel room that...

That could only be Vegas, right? What are you doing right now? Yeah, I'm looking at the sphere right now out of my window and I'm wrapping up my trip for Bitcoin Vegas. I had some investor meetings out here. But by the way, Dave, listening to you talk about the Today Show, the only time I ever

ever listen to that show is when I'm like randomly in a hotel room and I watched the whole thing and it's like this is your life. I was watching it thinking Dave is watching this right now and there is something I have to say there is something communal about knowing that everybody's kind of watching the same soft programming. It just took me back but it's not a terrible way to wake up in the morning. I have to admit it's not a

A terrible way to start your day. If you actually listen to just that from the cold open through like the little, like they loop through all the stories that they're going to cover in the first hour or really like the whole show, they loop through it in about like 90 seconds. And that is like, it's just like reading all the headlines and it kind of gets you going on what's going on in the world. If there was something big that happened overnight, you could turn it off after the first 90 seconds. I mean, I just leave it on as I'm getting ready or whatever, but-

And everything is delivered in the same way. It reminds me of like when, you know, watching those kids Disney shows, like it's just nothing of it. It's not real. So it doesn't matter what they're saying. It's all delivered. Yeah.

It's just it's an odd thing. I know you're not you. You see it every day, so you don't get what I'm saying. But the whole thing is just odd. No, I see it every day, but I've been traveling for the last two weeks, so I haven't been on my normal schedule. So it was like refreshing to be back to the Today Show this morning. It was the first time that I my TV comes on automatically at 7 a.m. right in time for the cult for the you know, that cold open. It really just sets the tone.

And Hoda was back today. Hoda's promoting some new app that she has. Breathing. Breathing app. And I don't know. Yeah. Just health app or something. It was weird. That was a little. Apparently you put your info in. I haven't downloaded it. But yeah, it's called Joy 101, I think. Oh, my God. That's what she's doing now.

Only on the Today Show. I usually start my mornings off on X, and it's way more of a brutal...

entry that's a hard that's a hard way to wake up i can't handle x first thing i usually you know at 7 a.m it goes off for the first 90 seconds i'm paying attention then i might like doze off again or you know if the first story is interesting but literally the first 10 minutes was nothing but multiple reporters having to cover the trump shenanigans

So let's talk about that. And specifically, I want to start with an executive order that he signed five days ago. Actually, it's a series of executive orders that he says are going to usher in an American nuclear renaissance. So I want to like dig between the lines and what that could mean for the economy and which stocks might be the winners out of out of what to me is way bigger because it's

It's the kind of correlation and causation between energy consumption and production and the GDP. So I think this narrative has unfolded over the course of the last few weeks where even

even Elon has essentially given up on the concept of making government smaller and more efficient. I think even he has thrown in the towel with Doge. Well, this is a comment I tweeted the other day. I think that he's basically realized the government is not capable of preventing its own demise.

And so he has said, okay, well, you know, I've tried to attack it from the cost saving side and the fraud reduction and all of that. No, what we need to do, he needs to go back to work and single-handedly Elon Musk is the one guy who can just go to work and then increase the GDP enough so that we don't have to worry about the crushing debt.

But Elon is a microcosm of a larger movement here. We now have the big, beautiful, controversial Trump bill that seems like it will go through in one form of another. And everyone's coming to the realization that no matter what, we are adding trillions of dollars, not removing trillions.

billions or trillions of dollars so that game is over and everyone has come to the same exact conclusion which is our only savior is explosive growth explosive growth is the only option going forward and everyone is resolved

to that conclusion. It's not just Elon. I feel like it's the entire federal government. It's the entire Trump team. It's now obvious that if they are going to

get to the place where everybody wants to be. Even theoretically, there's only one thing that could theoretically bring us there. And it has to be explosive growth, explosive productivity, and whether or not that actually happens is kind of irrelevant here.

Everyone is going to be in support of that for at least the next 18 months that this administration has all three houses. That is huge. That is huge because we always knew, guys, that...

They had a limited amount of time to do something. So what are they going to do? We hinted earlier on this administration that it felt like deregulation was the thing. Now I feel like it's cemented. Not only is it the thing it's how.

Hard can they push deregulation the next 18 months to potentially spurry on any industry sector that this government feels could be an explosive growth sector, whether it is or isn't doesn't matter. Do they feel that it is obviously most recently they feel that we have to have nuclear because nuclear is essentially the.

potentially the long-term fuel that sits underneath all of this, right? So I think Trump realizes that it's all about AI. AI is all about compute. Compute is all about chips. And chips are all about what? Energy, right?

Maybe water, but mostly energy. So that is likely the impetus for what happened with these nuclear executive orders. Right. Yeah. Which, by the way, I got.

I got the right end of the stick on that trade. I was trading Oklo into NVIDIA earnings this week, thinking it would be like a sideshow winner of a strong NVIDIA earnings or positive NVIDIA momentum. And then we get the executive orders on top of that. I'm still holding a good chunk of my Oklo through NVIDIA earnings, but we'll see what happens. So you...

You're now on the, like, you're getting this inside information from the Trump administration, aren't you? You're just getting it directly. I wish. Are you going to be able to front run energy trades the day before he signs a nuclear energy executive order?

I don't know who actually really knows about this stuff, but I'll tell you this, man. It's not hard, I don't think, to predict everything that ultimately is going to happen with this administration. Everything we've been talking about since day one is essentially happening. Deregulatory. Now we know that everything has to be pro-growth. So my thought is,

The next thing, I think, I'm just predicting it right now. And like I said, I don't know anything about

Other than what's been made public about this, which is there was that 1 meeting, what, like, a month ago that they allowed some of the robotics guys into government to kind of pitch what they wanted to pitch. They have to also be pro robots. There's they've already stated it multiple times. I believe at some point we will likely get some sort of executive orders that are related to.

advanced manufacturing in this country that will include robotics, potentially maybe even single out humanoids. I honestly have no idea if this is going to happen, but it is in line with everything that we have seen thus far. Okay. If he wants to have domestic production, he's literally like told Apple that they have a new 25% tariff. If they don't build the iPhone in the U S which just is impossible to do without the

I mean, it's impossible to do it all for current iPhones, but even five years down the line, if they were to like move everything to the US, it would have to be robotics based.

It has to be so that that's where my head is going right now. Just continued deregulatory efforts the next 12 to 18 months, continued executive orders to support anything that's explosive growth. I assume this nuclear stuff is real. I don't know. I have a I already have been investing, as you know, in nuclear for a while now. I invested in a private company called Radiant.

And so, Oklo for me was, I've been in and out of Oklo for the last year. It's not new headlines, you know, Google and anyone who's in AI is looking for power for their AI. And so it just kind of makes sense.

And the Trump administration has, this is the first time they've done an executive order that I'm aware that is nuclear specific, but he has since January been signed. He declared the national energy emergency in January.

And then like every month, it seems like there's something else energy related and it's all been coal and all energy forms and, you know, canceling, not allowing to have regulations that are just ongoing. They have like a one year time limit, like all these all these like pieces that are lining up for energy is what will move our GDP forward because we're on the cusp of AI robotics, things that are going to.

AI just needs so much more energy than we've ever prepared for. At a time when we took all of our filament burning light bulbs and went energy efficient with things that didn't require as much energy and everything's energy efficient, we just haven't ramped up our energy production as fast as other countries. And Chris, you shared a clip with us in our group chat from All In's podcast. I have that if you want to play it, but

Basically, if we could solve the energy problem, we can solve the GDP problem is kind of the theory here. Yeah, I think that's exactly right. And I think also important to note in terms of

predict, you know, cracking the Trump code, right? I think we have cracked the Trump code. And the Trump code is he is ultimately going to walk back to explosive growth, no matter what that means. So anything that Trump does going forward that wrecks a sector or that ends up wrecking a company, I think ultimately he'll walk back.

Because it's to his benefit and to the administration's benefit. We've seen it time and time again. We thought that is what was going to happen with tariffs, and it is what is happening with tariffs. So why would we not believe that that will happen with every other thing that gets announced over the next two and a half years, right? So we just have to assume it's going to walk out. Is it what's happening with tariffs? Because tariffs are still higher than they were when he took office.

- Yes. - Without walking them back completely, which he should, if he was supposed to grow. - Jordan, Jordan, yes. - 'Cause no matter what, it's gonna be a drag on the economy. - Okay, Jordan, yes, it's exactly what's happening. He's walking back the tariffs from where they started. So the market crashed based on something crazy that he put out there in the world, and then he walked them back. Now, whether they end up- - But they're not walked back completely. - Well, no one's saying it's gonna be walked back completely necessarily, but the market made a move based on what was announced.

And then that was meaningfully, meaningfully walked back. So maybe we end up with higher tariffs here across the board. But I can tell you this, what we said when those tariffs were announced is that it was an impossibility that we would end up anywhere near there because it just simply didn't make any sense. And it didn't benefit the administration for that to ultimately happen.

So what happened? We've walked them back, what, like, I don't know, it looks like they're coming back 70, 80, 90% from where they initially were announced with that ridiculous board, right? Like, now they're talking about tariffs dropping for some countries under 10%, which, again, would be, if you would have announced that back then, nothing would have happened. The market would have been completely fine. So I don't know where they'll ultimately fall, Jordan, but...

Every single thing that's announced that is a negative for explosive growth will ultimately be walked back to get closer to supporting explosive growth, which is what happened here because that is in the vested interest of the administration. So just think pragmatically about it.

Right. Trump has been so pro tariff for so long that I think that we'll end up with tariffs that are higher than what they were before he took office. I think that that 10 percent across the board, that that seems like it might be more permanent. Certain countries will have higher than that. But I agree that the the.

the tariffs will be meaningfully walked back from from where we are even today and they've already been walked back from the insane you know 170 percent tariffs now 30. i i think that we're it's still going to come down a little bit but i think the market's kind of adjusted for that well but ultimately what actually matters to him is this market

So whatever ultimately has to be done to the whether it's tariffs, whether it's incentives, whether it's executive orders, it really doesn't matter to me how like what the administration chooses to do, because I know that ultimately their goal is.

is this market that is just crystal clear at this point, right? They might do things. Look, I mean, that's a good story, but it's not really what's been happening. We've scared off international investors. We're increasing our debt instead of, you know, trying to do something about it. I just don't see this explosive growth story. I don't see that shaping up in any way at all.

Okay, so I don't know how you're saying that because, like I said, what I'm talking about, Jordan, is they are going to support sectors that they believe are required for explosive growth. We've seen it with their moves with chips. We've seen it with their moves with nuclear, right, in the last week. And if you were invested in those sectors –

a month ago, like I did, you're now up huge. In some cases, 40% on Nvidia, right? You realize that there's a difference between stocks going up and actually having GDP growth, right? No, no, no. Jordan, you don't understand what I'm saying. All I care about is the stock price. That's what I'm doing. That's what's making me money. That's what this show's about. That's fine. That is literally the only, it's not 90% of what I care about. There

Don't get me wrong, I actually do care about the economy, but for the purpose of my trading,

I 100 only percent care about the stock movement, right? So there's things that will actually happen with the economy. There's things that we believe the politicians should be doing. And then there's just trading, right? So like right now I'm talking about based on what I think they're gonna do and how that will impact stocks. That's all I care about. I have to separate those two worlds, Jordan. Like I have to separate

Those two things. Because whether or not I believe what they're doing will ultimately help doesn't really matter as it relates to my short-term trade. So all that matters in this market is what's coming out of the mouths of these politicians right now. Let's be honest. That's basically what's happening. So we have to trade just that. Because if we get too in the weeds, I mean, we'll just get lost in it.

Like, you have to trade what they're saying, because that's what other people care about. I do kind of agree with you that a lot of these moves potentially have some big negative components to them as it relates to economic growth. But don't you also agree that.

Ultimately, if they're making the big moves to support the big explosive growth sectors, meaning chips, energy, just for economic growth long term, that's critical. But you're saying, wait, what's critical?

for them to actually pave the way for the biggest sectors to be able to grow the next few years, right? Energy, nuclear, chips, those are things that are extremely important. And he's obviously paying attention just to those sectors right now, right? It's not benefiting everyone, but certainly it's benefiting those sectors. We can disagree about what happened in the Middle East with the UAE deal, with the Saudi Arabia deal. Is that the best thing?

or is it a bad thing for humanity? It doesn't really matter. It's a good thing for the American company of Nvidia, right? Like just, if you're just looking at it in the eyes of Nvidia, not in the eyes of our economy, like long-term politically. And really it seems to be a good thing for anyone that Trump invited along for that trip, you know?

Nvidia was there. Apple was invited but declined. And then all of a sudden he's targeting Apple with a new tariff. So it's like you got to kind of be able to play the game and understand how it's working from the inside and just make your stock picks based on what the perception of reality is.

That's exactly right. So if you see a big trip like that, you see who's going on it. That's a tell, right? That's obviously a tell. That's something that we have to be paying attention to.

um you know i'm here in vegas taking some meetings yesterday and today i'm actually not deeply entrenched as you guys know in the crypto world uh but i was out with a bunch of people last night that are in that world and it definitely seems that right now the crypto sector is about to go through this phase right we've seen it a little over the past few days with that new company that new

cell company that is basically the doing what monster what MSTR does. But for Ethereum, it looks like that's going to happen for a lot of other coins now. Right. So we're going to see a lot of these crypto coins go through the same sort of leveraging that Michael Saylor is doing with Bitcoin. That seems that seems to me to be the theme

of what a lot of people are talking about. So again, I'm not a crypto trader, but if I was trading that type of stuff, that's kind of what it'd be. Oh, we just lost you, Chris. But he's basically talking about how all of these companies like MicroStrategy that basically are treasury companies for crypto, and he's back, but

Treasury companies for crypto is a trend. And I saw some predictions of the kind of percentage of the total float for Bitcoin that will eventually be held by these treasury companies, MicroStrategy being the biggest, but more and more companies getting into basically the business of leveraging crypto.

yeah that that's exactly right i think crypto is about to go through a deep leveraging cycle i have no idea how that ultimately plays out you say a deep leveraging or a de-leveraging deep a deep leveraging yeah they're all going to get leveraged the way that sailor is leveraging bitcoin and i don't know how that's going to play out because you need

to continue to get more money for that to work over time. The asset has to continue to go up, right, over time. It's going to continue to go up because debt is getting more expensive.

Yeah. And it's like, in a way, I hate to be the one who calls it a Ponzi scheme, but you're having to keep collecting more money in order for the leverage to continue to exist on these assets that hopefully for the people investing in it will continue to go up. I mean, it's,

It's a, but it is a scarce resource. It's almost like if you could have a leveraged fund on gold in, you know, the 700s or something, right? Back like the year 700.

Did you see the stock yesterday that went up from like a couple bucks to 40-something doing that with Ethereum? Yeah, I saw that. The MicroStrategy of Ethereum. Ethereum has run up in the past few weeks or just even few days. Bitcoin hit an all-time high again. I mean…

We're back in that crazy... Everything went from everyone's fear, uncertainty, and doubt to, oh, let's go back all in. I think, listen, out here in Vegas, there's a lot of excitement. It's revolving around crypto, but I think...

I think it's representative of what people are thinking right now across every single sector, which is there is a window of time. Let's call it another year before the midterms when.

it will be a massively deregulatory environment to work in. And everybody's trying to do as much stuff as possible during that window. So I'm going to fall back on things that are either related to explosive growth or benefiting deeply from deregulation. So it's not a lot of new names here, right? Like these are, this is, this is AI. It's kind of going to be the same picks that we've had for so many other reasons, right?

The GDP growth story out of energy production becomes the same companies that we're in anyway. Less fun, but also banking deregulation. You're right, Jordan. And I'll have to go back to Robinhood, quite honestly. I hate to say the same name over and over and over again, and that stock has been on a tear. But again, who is going to take advantage of this environment more aggressively than anyone else?

it's going to be guys like flawed at robin hood it has to be robin hood right um these are the companies that i have to be invested in here so you

It's not like a lot of new surprising names. If it's explosive growth, if it benefits from deregulation, that's where I'm putting my money the next year, period. Other than, you know, the occasional social arb stuff that I come across, whether it's, you know, another shoe company. That one did well, guys. Or what was it? The AS? What was the name of that shoe company that we just did?

What was it? How could I not remember one of my biggest trades? Were you not in on that last week? I was not.

This is, oh my God. - Is it a two letter ticker? I don't even know what it could be. - Yeah, Solomon. Solomon, Solomon. That was such a trade. For me, it was just a few day trade. - Yeah, it was up like 20% overnight. - It was unreal, yeah. You did that, right, Jordan? Nice. - Yeah, I mean, not a crazy amount of money, but it was great.

I put a crazy amount of money in it. Abercrombie was up 25% today. It looks like it's only up 19% now. Yeah, so that's a really interesting story because they actually lowered guidance and went up. I did not trade Abercrombie. I pulled the data, and it didn't look great to me. I shared it in our Discord, and I feel bad. I was like, the data just looks terrible. There's no way I'm trading this. And somehow, they lowered guidance and went up.

So that's interesting. Does that tell us that maybe people's expectations are a bit too low on some of these stocks that would get impacted by tariffs?

So the only reason why they lowered their expectations were because of tariffs. And my assumption is that people believe that those tariffs are not going to be longstanding and that ultimately they will beat those expectations because once the tariffs come down some, most of that will get resolved and they'll hit the higher end of their projections. That's my assumption on that Abercrombie print.

But listen, I am going all in on hyper growth companies. That's it. That's where my head's at. And companies from deregulation. If it hits one of those two things, if it happens to hit both of those things, even better. What's so great is that we're going to go through this weird cycle of crypto now. Robinhood will benefit from that.

as well right so robin hood kind of benefits from the deregulatory crypto stuff that's going on they benefit i think from a lot of the explosive growth companies uh resulting in a lot of active trading in the market and they also benefit from the deregulatory environment which will allow them to do all the things they want to do for the past

10 years and couldn't because they were afraid that someone would stop them. Like, have you heard about this blockchain based trade settlements? Sounds like someone has been at a Bitcoin conference a little too long. No, I don't know what you're talking about. I don't know if you can still hear me, but you your image has dropped out. He's gone. He's going to have to reboot. I think he's just on his phone in a hotel room. Yeah.

All right, we'll give him a second to come back. But it sounds like... So what do you... Well, there he is. I was going to ask Jordan, what plays are you making right now, if any, based on your take on a less rosy future for the market? Yeah, I mean, look, I'm in NVIDIA, Google for AI. Obviously NVIDIA because of the...

the open market in saudi arabia uae um but i don't have a big rosy outlook for the rest of the market um i still think there's going to be impacts from tariffs i think people are generally gloomier about job outlooks right now um there are layoffs they're not getting crazy yet but um

That and with interest rates as high as they are and any shock to the economy and how much debt we have, I don't think the Fed can come in in lower rates. So I just don't. But don't you think that kind of all of the things, the gloom and doom things are already kind of known and worried about and that we have an era of growth coming just from the Fed

technology that's about to be dramatically changed with AI? Yeah, maybe. We've already seen changes. Because the problem is some of these net displaced jobs. And so over the long term, we don't know what AI is going to do to the job market. It could lower white collar jobs, maybe increase blue collar jobs. We don't really know that yet. And I don't see like a real concrete

real pattern or mold that we can understand how it's going to affect

Well, and I did see a quote from one of the anthropic guys that even if AI progress were to completely stall today and we never reach AGI, the current systems are already capable of automating all white-collar jobs within the next five years. Well, yeah, maybe. Look, I don't think it automates all white-collar jobs, but I do think it makes them more efficient. And so it depends on what companies end up doing with that efficiency. Do they...

keep the same head count and just become two three four five times more efficient over time or do they use this as a cost-cutting measure to be able to drop their head count and employment yeah i was talking to one of my roboticist friends this week about tesla's eventual scale out of their optimus and we were talking about the fact of if you end up having millions of robots

And realistically, if you end up having in the early years one human for every 10 robots, just in terms of management, right, someone to look over the bots when there's failures, handle them, there's going to be a tremendous amount of human interaction in the first five to eight years of these robot rollouts.

that's a tremendous number of manufacturing supervisory jobs managing these robot fleets, right? And you have to assume kind of going back to the Devin's paradox stuff that if a company is able to do more with less, they're going to use that to leverage themselves and expand and do more stuff, right? So yeah, if you could do three times more with the same number of employees,

are you going to cut two-thirds of your employees? Some might, but most will probably try to triple the size of their business, right? So the jobs might change in terms of what people are doing, but if you can operate

a restaurant, a fast food restaurant more efficiently, you might triple the number of fast food restaurants you're willing to put out in the world. Because if all of a sudden there are means to be more profitable. But at some point there's like a saturation for each business with the amount of people in the country or in a certain region or something like that, right? You can't just say for sure it's going to

lead to either a net neutral or positive job growth. I don't think that you have that information yet. Okay, at some point there's a saturation rate, but history has proven that we will always expand in some way. We just might not understand the way that it gets expanded. No, we've always expanded so far.

That's what I said. And it doesn't happen everywhere. Correct. Every market that's ever existed, except for the United States market, except for the current markets that exist, have crashed and gone to zero. Japan had 20 years where their market hadn't reached an all-time high, 20 or 30 years. You don't have to always have growth.

Well, someone will always have growth. And if you listen to Ray Dalio and his, you know, the changing of the guards, you know,

the US has kind of peaked according to his philosophy and the I think the technological especially with tighter immigration policy so if you're not if we're not growing um with childbirth which we're not um so our childbirth right now is below the replacement cycle and immigration is becoming

very tough for people to come into the United States. That's a big hit on US growth just on a GDP per capita basis. Right. So you don't have a growing population. You don't have a growing GDP generally. Well, yeah, but a lot of that was based on humans being the driving force. Put us in a box.

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for a very long time. So yeah, I mean, you can have, right, so you can have more efficiency with robots, but at the end of the day, you still have to have people with jobs making money. Well, I mean, I mean,

Well, yes. Making money so that they can spend it and be a consumer economy. But what if the bots have to start spending money? Because we already know that there's more bot traffic on the internet than real humans. Maybe the bots will be able to be the next generation of consumers. First of all, Jordan, let's agree that theoretically we don't technically need to have anybody working.

Okay, period to have that. You could have not a single employee in the United States. In a theoretical world where everything was automated, all of our companies were automated, we could do what, and those services were exported, right? - Well, no, no, no. So the problem with that is that at the end of the day, you have to have people with money spending, or there's no reason to have a business. - I'm sorry, what? - You have to have people or businesses spending

uh correct but but that has nothing employed no no no one needs it no one needs to be employed jordan we could have a zero we could have a zero we could have a zero theoretically you could have zero people employed

have industry working that's creating value and have that money dispersed in various ways based on ownership and other things. I'm just saying, theoretically. Maybe, right? But then you're talking like a universal basic income and you're talking about... We're never going to get there. I'm just saying that it's not necessarily the old way of thinking where it has to be human labor. It's not just the old way of thinking. It's just the way things work. It's the real world. No, not necessarily. Yeah.

Yes, 100%. If companies don't have to hire anybody, nobody's going to be spending money.

That's not true. That is true. Because that's not true. Because it's you, Jordan, you could disperse all the money. You could do whatever you want. But that's a UBI, right? So you've got a universal basic income. Yes, but Jordan, understand we have UBI. We've had it for a long time, right? Look at how much money is being spent, given out all the time, right? So that money is real money that's given out. So we've got SNAP benefits going away. We've got Medicaid going away. So a lot of those things are going away with...

some of the policies that are in place right now. - Okay, I'm not getting into the politics of it. What I'm saying is like, for example, food stamps, haven't we grown from since 2018 from 30 billion to 120 billion, right? So theoretically we can grow UBI like payments, like whatever they happen to be. - But you know those benefits are on the chopping block to give tax cuts, right? - I'm not talking about this administration, what they're doing, what's gonna happen next 24 months.

But you have. Because if you see a reversal in that trend, then a lot of those public dollars go away, right? And then employment and population growth matter at the end of the day. Yeah, and we'll see how it exactly all shakes out. And as you know, administrations change constantly. We're going to have midterms literally are only 18 months away, right? Those midterms could completely shift.

the way a lot of those dollars flow, right? And then you could have a completely new president, right, in three years. And we could be at a 180. If you get midterms go the Democrats way, then all that does is just lock up policymaking. And you could have a new president in three years and they could end up creating UBI that's 50 times larger than we ever would have imagined. All I'm saying is-

If you're able to- We already have like 130%- Jordan, if you're able to go through an explosive growth cycle of AI automation productivity, if we see efficient, I'm just saying- Do you think that's going to make a meaningful dent in our debt to GDP? Where all of a sudden we can afford to print more money to give to people? It absolutely can. I think in the same way inventing a locomotive train did. Yes.

It changes the full economy. It changes the way the system works. And you may not need a bunch of humans sitting in cubicles collecting a paycheck so that they can then go home and buy something. You can just think things might be different now.

50 years from now. We're not talking about 12 months. We're talking, what's it going to look like 50 years from now? Will we have any reason for humans to be doing anything? Hold on, it's not 50 years. Jordan, what you're saying right now, someone could have been...

said about manufacturing workers 35 years ago, 40 years ago in the US go, how can you possibly experience growth without increasing our manufacturing? Look at what we did. We have an information economy, a service economy, a technology economy. We have never seen a technological leap like this. We don't know how it's going to play out. But I do agree with that. But that's my point. We don't know how it's going to play out.

And so I don't know if it's going to be positive or negative for the GDP or for people's standard of living. I don't know that yet.

Okay, I agree. None of us know for sure, but it certainly seems like there's a fairly strong thesis that artificial intelligence has the capacity to bring the largest leap in productivity that we've ever seen to humankind, right? I think that's fair. I think people are more productive or can be more productive.

Even with the current state of artificial intelligence. And in my head, that has traditionally always been the primary engine of growth. So if it actually plays out that way, I get it's an if, and I understand the timetables are...

are undetermined right now. And there's a lot that needs to happen for this to all play out. But if we see something similar with AI, but much larger than what we saw with the internet, for example, then I do believe it could be the great savior. I do believe it could generate such massive growth, not just here in the US, but globally, that we could potentially get out of this hole

At least 1 more time, not that we won't bury ourselves in a new hole after that 1 more time. I think it just might am I being way too optimistic right now? Jordan, you probably think I'm being too optimistic. I know. I know. I think it's possible. Like you said, I think it's possible, but I don't think it's guaranteed. Okay.

Yeah, I don't think there are any guarantees. I just see that the likelihood that AI is going to be transformative in a way that we have not experienced in our lifetimes, I think that there's a great possibility of that. Like, a greater than 50% chance that AI is going to be meaningfully...

It will meaningfully change the future. Dave, what you just said is so important because in my gut, I feel like I've seen enough Jordan.

To where I agree with Dave is not a toy, a coin toss. I believe it's like 90%. 80 to 90% now there, there could be something weird that happens, but I don't know exactly how this is going to play out over the next 10 to 15 years. But I think it's actually happening. I think we're going to see the explosive growth from this cycle.

I don't know who the ultimate winners are in terms of countries. I think we'll be a big one. I think China will probably be a pretty big one as well, actually. I think...

I actually think everyone's going to win. I'm not being way too optimistic. I think everybody is going to win. I think we're going to look back at this show in 15 years and go, you know what? That was awesome. That's been an awesome run that AI brought to the global economy. And we were all so worried back in 2025 that everyone was in too much debt. Every company was in a debt spiral. There's no way out. And somehow we're out.

right? Like we're going to have good times again economically. And then of course, we're going to screw it up. Of course, we're going to screw it up. We're going to overspend and it's going to be way worse than this time. And by then I'm too old to worry about how we dig ourselves out of that hole. But I guys, I feel really damn good about this. I really do. I even feel that no matter what happens in the midterms,

And no matter what happens with the 2028 election, whether it's Republican, Democrat, Trump-oriented or old school GOP, I think no matter who is up there, I think they're actually going to continue with some extent, even if it's a Democrat, with more of a deregulatory spirit and more of a let's support the explosive growth approach.

I think all the social stuff, all the spending stuff will be open for debate. But I don't think there's any stopping this train because it's going to become so obvious that it's the only way out.

It's the only way out, right? So you have to support it. We'll have to see what other countries do too, because the EU has been less accepting of explosive growth companies, right? They try to regulate more than our current administration is.

I feel that even in the EU, that they've realized now that they have to play. Like, they can't be left out of this. I think we're going to see even them change the next year or two to kind of ensure that they are not being left out of AI. They're not being left out of robotics. I think that will actually happen. Why? Because they have to, right? Like, I don't think people do this stuff until they're in a corner.

And I feel that we are finally in a very dark place. Everyone is quite honestly with this debt spiral and this is going to be the new narrative. The new narrative is you have to grow your way out and you can only grow your way out if your government is supporting this new magical thing. That's promising to get us out of the hole, which is deep tech, right? Nuclear.

AI, chips, compute. Yeah, you can't really grow your way. I mean, the only way you can get out is inflation. Well, there's two things. You could either remove the debt magically, which we've found not to work, or you increase productivity. Those are the only two ways to tip the scale. And increasing productivity seems to be easier than reducing the debt on its own by just not spending as much.

I believe so. And I ultimately believe a lot of this will be deflationary in time, but there will be huge road bumps. I mean, Jordan, you're absolutely correct. There will be enormous road bumps along the way. A lot of sectors will get crushed. I think we need to do a way if you want to start talking politics. If you think it's deflationary, then that's even worse. Right. So the only way you get rid of the debt is to inflate it away or austerity. Deflation adds to the debt.

If we go through Jordan, a hyper growth cycle though. Okay. And the ultimate result of that cycle will be to some extent deflationary. Right because of what of the increase in productivity.

but i i don't see how that doesn't ultimately help with the debt cycle i mean i don't want to get too entrenched in this um because i feel like even when economists that spend their entire life talk about this for years on end ultimately they're wrong like no one actually knows how this stuff

Ultimately plays out, but we were able to dig ourselves out of this in the past without austerity. Right? And and even like, you, you look at states like California, like, when we thought they were dead, all of a sudden, the tech cycle, save them and save their debt. Right? So, I think it will happen again.

So let's look at the comments. We had someone say, what's the bet? Like the title says, let's take it back to what are we talking about here? My big three stocks based on reading of the Trump code and trying to read between the lines are Tesla, Nvidia, and Robinhood. Chris? Yeah, I'm going to take those same three and all

And also, I'm not like I said, I'm not a crypto guy. Like I'm in these conversations last night. I don't even know what people are talking about. And I like ultimately I'm like, I want nothing to do with this. But if I was a crypto person, I would trade some of this stuff. I just can't figure it out. Like, I don't even want to think about it.

but I think there is going to be a cycle here when people are doing really creative things, levering a lot of these coins. And I think there's a lot of money to be made. I just don't want the headache of trying to figure that out. As of right now, I have more valuation of my personal portfolio in Bitcoin than any of the top three companies that I just mentioned. Hmm.

Yeah, you know, I just have the same amount of Bitcoin when I think about it. I bought it a long time ago, and it's worth more now than any other stock in my portfolio. But getting back to also the Trump code that we have cracked, anytime we see Trump dismantle a sector or dismantle a company—

I think that's a potential opportunity because I think ultimately they'll probably figure a way to walk it back. Maybe not all the way, right? But it's just not good if that company is involved

With hyper growth, right? Like, I think ultimately the administration will do things and then walk them back. I think the pattern will continue again and again and again. Retail investors are starting to figure that out. That's why the market, you know.

stayed up this last week, right? With the new threats. Remember the new European threats? Nobody bought it. They were like, ah, we don't care. What happened on Sunday? Basically walked it back. So I think, you know, the learnings that we're getting out of this is don't get, don't, don't get spooked. Like we're not financial advisors. This is just us talking to each other. Um, but Dave and Jordan, like you just can't get spooked by this stuff short term.

so jordan what are your three big takeaways from your reading of the trump code the trump code yeah i mean every everything yeah i mean you you know what he's been doing jordan you've been watching it unfold every day the last four months i know i know whether you love it or hate it as an investor how does that impact yeah no it's not love or hate it's unpredictable and i think that that's

But is it? Is it unpredictable? Because it seems very predictable so far. It seems that everything he has- I mean, he can come out and change his mind on anything tomorrow and sign a new executive order or raise tariffs because he's mad at somebody, which- That's what he does. We've determined that that is his pattern. Yeah, how do you invest in an environment like that? Look, I'm invested, right? So I'm not scared of investing. People say I'm negative. I'm just-

I'm just playing the other side of things, but I'm in all of these companies. I'm an Nvidia, Taiwan, semi Google, things like that. But I'm cautious.

Okay, but but the first part is unpredictable We never know what he's gonna come out and say on the front end to disrupt some company or sector the part that's becoming predictable is The extent that he will ultimately walk that back That's what I'm getting at like cool say whole threaten a company and then the CEO will have lunch with him a week later right and then

everything will get figured out. They'll make some commitment of a future factory. Something will happen and he'll find a way to kind of get them back in a good light. That's I think that that's the predictable part on NVIDIA specifically, though, guys, we can't not talk about this. We have NVIDIA earnings today. I've been answering text all morning. What are you doing, Chris? You're selling, you're holding. Here's the thing.

JP Morgan came out with that earnings report. They think they're going to miss street expectations. They think that the street hasn't properly adjusted for the China news. They think that expectations are too high and they're going to miss.

I don't know exactly what's going to happen in terms of what they're going to miss on the on revenue or guidance they think they're going to miss on margins Jordan they think them and they think they're going to miss on on revenue yes on guidance because they think the China impact is like I don't know I want to say like 17 or 18 billion dollars annualized

And they think that that impact hasn't fully been factored in. Now, I think with the price- Do they think that's not offset by the Middle East impact? I think that it probably is between the price increases- Maybe not on revenue, but on guide. Yeah, I think it is. I think the guide will be fine. But I also don't ultimately think it really matters that much.

I think if Nvidia does miss some, and it does fall, I think that's a huge opportunity. I think what is very clear here is that we've seen some moves by this administration and by sovereign governments. It started in the Middle East, but it's not going to end in the Middle East. What we saw in the UAE and what Saudi Arabia, I think, is going to replicate itself around the world.

I think that, Jordan, would you agree that all these countries have to have a sovereign AI strategy? I think we're going to see some element of AI sovereignty around the world. And that's a market that we're in the

early cycles of growth for Nvidia. It's they're just starting to get into it right now and you can't get left out. You just, there's no way you can get left out of that. Also, I think maybe one of the biggest, most undiscussed drivers of growth for Nvidia and Jordan, I want to get your opinion on this.

have you been playing around at all if you've seen some of these videos on the vo3 that google has come out yeah i saw some today oh my gosh they are they are absolutely astonishing so i asked chat gpt to to help me figure out the amount of compute used to create one of those videos uh relative to the amount of compute used to do like a

a 10,000 word document review or document edit. And the amount of compute involved with

With this video is actually astonishing guys like I don't even know how we're going to do this video in any with any sort of scale because the compute is insane is anyone factoring in when this starts to catch on and we have everyone in the world wanting to generate some sort of video based

AI, some text-to-video AI, whether it's for small business, medium business, commercials, entertainment. People are doing it just for their own social media, for memes. We have a billion people creating these things around the world. I think this technology is actually so stunningly amazing that people would be willing to pay for it, actually pay a premium to be able to use it.

that might end up being the largest growth driver for compute and for NVIDIA that no one is talking about right now. What we saw in the last seven to 10 days with VO3, I can only imagine what VO4 and what VO5 is going to look like. Yeah, I'd be interested to see if, you know, what it would actually cost to produce some of this stuff. Like if you were to actually pay...

you know like a market rate of the of the compute that you use plus a profit for the company what what would these what would this all look like so jordan i'm not i'm not just talking about vo3 i'm talking about any of it right because like we know that chat gbt doesn't charge enough right now um to pay for their compute so so that i think there's a couple ways to look at it

Nvidia, right, no matter how much they're ultimately going to be the winner there, right? I mean, so but these these dollars are being, you know, there's investing dollars being burned right now. And so it's just cash burn for, you know, these major companies, or startups or whoever is, you know, buying the compute time versus whatever they're charging on the other end. So there's some net difference, and it gets burned somehow, right?

Correct. You're talking about the frontier models. Eventually, for any of this investment to be worth it, you've got to be able to charge enough to at least break even. Yes, you're exactly correct. And ultimately, we all know that the price has to come down. And how long is that from now? Is it next year? Is it five years from now? Is it 10 years from now? I don't think we know that.

So the price needs to come down. We know that. Yeah, either the price of compute needs to come down or the amount that's being charged needs to go up or both. Yes. And I actually think we'll get a lot of both. I actually think the value...

that this technology is driving. You know, I'll just use... Did you guys see the commercial of the plastic bottle man that was made with VO3? This is the one that went viral a few days ago. Guys, it is the most stunning commercial I've ever seen. Like, this is probably the best thing anyone's made with VO3. I actually showed it to a friend of mine who...

Edits commercials, like, like, he's a commercial editor for, like, real commercials and he said, I don't actually think that was made. Would be 03 and he came back to me 30 minutes later and he goes, they made it with 3. I can't believe this. And he was like, this is insane. And they made it so quickly and he knows the group that actually did it.

Guys, I don't think people understand how valuable that technology is to every business in the world. We're using it, like I told you, at my restaurant all the time for every single item. We haven't started using the text and video yet, but you know we will soon. We'll be creating full video ads that run every single day. I think there are actually a billion or more businesses around the world that will be paying

real money to use this technology because it's pennies on the dollar as to what you would have had to pay prior to this technology to get the end result of it. I actually see there being a tremendous amount of money that is willing to be spent on this, even if the compute stays higher than we'd like it to be. I don't think anyone is even framing

this industry sector yet correctly. I don't think anyone is because the fact that we're sitting here on NVIDIA earnings day worried about what number they print for the last quarter is completely irrelevant. It's completely irrelevant. Completely irrelevant, which is why- It's so dumb.

We will see the cost of compute come down, but we'll see demand for future compute. There's there'll be more compute required in the future. So it's like it doesn't really see the cost of compute go down. And I think we'll see today's level of compute will go down and we'll have new better compute that is more because we're going to keep innovating on the computer. Do you think the cost of electricity will go down?

- Jordan, I think- - You've got two factors going into the cost of computers. One is the CapEx you have to amortize and the other one is electricity costs. And with nuclear, what we've seen, at least with these small modular nuclear reactors is that the price per kilowatt is higher than grid energy. - Only on the micro nuclear, you're right.

Yeah, do we know what it is on SMRs, on the small modulars? We know that micro is higher. I would guess that small is also still higher than grid energy. But we are so early days. I think what we've seen, and I think the fact that the U.S. has always been very slow when it comes to this. But we're so early that they're not even deploying SMRs, or at least OKLO is not even deploying SMRs yet.

Correct. But again, think bigger picture. What we just saw with this executive order last week and the fact that that's happening in the U.S. where we've been super tough on nuclear. I think globally we are going to be in an energy race now with not just nuclear, with like fusion, like all this new tech. Yeah. So somebody just said, hey, there's often efficiencies in large energy generation. And there is. And that's why SMRs

are great, but they don't get those efficiencies at scale that you get from like a large nuclear reactor, which could take, what does it take to put a large nuclear reactor online? Like 20 to 30 years? China does it pretty quickly.

they do they do they do it quickly that's all i'm saying and we haven't even we haven't even touched on the next realm beyond nuclear you've you've seen elon talking about uh direct from space energy where we're collecting solar and space and beaming it down to the planet and then recollecting it from from a radio wave it's something that that i mean

We'll find more efficient energy over time. I don't know if in our lifetimes, but you just can't put a stake in the ground now and say, this is the most compute we'll ever need, or this is the most energy we'll ever generate. Look, the trend recently is that energy prices are going up, not down.

Of course, of course. So we can generate more energy for cheaper and then the opposite. But Jordan, isn't that always the way with every commodity cycle where the demand goes up and then people, it takes time for the supply to catch up, right? Yeah, I'm just wondering what that timeline is going to be. Yeah, so I don't,

I don't know. I don't think any of us know exactly, but I think the one thing we can agree upon here is there are maybe more questions than answers, but it certainly feels like the compute, the chip makers. Of course, but you have to read between the lines there. The compute part of that, the chip makers, right? NVIDIA, I think, wins this.

in any of those scenarios, right? Whether the world has to allocate more of its resources to buy compute because they have to make trade-offs in other areas or whether it gets the energy comes down meaningfully and we're able to actually generate compute more efficiently and we're able to do more things with compute.

and we just want more of it because the energy is no longer a bottleneck. I think in either of those scenarios, it feels like Google, Google, it feels like NVIDIA over the next few years, at least, is going to be a massive, massive winner. Guys, I think that people are getting way too caught up.

What Google you said a massive winner? No, I said Nvidia. I said Nvidia So let but let's talk about Google for a minute Google obviously

seems to be doing the most exciting things right now in AI. I think you have to put Google and DeepMind at the top of the food chain, but they have yet to... The last episode we had, you were bashing me for buying the dip on Google. I'm still bashing you. Let me tell you why. I'm not bashing you for... But listen, it worked. The thing is...

They're not monetizing it, okay? They're not commercializing it and they're not productizing it. And it's astonishing right now that they have the most magical, interesting thing in AI. That's the Google way. The only way that they make money is advertising and the rest of it, everything else just loses money. But Jordan, that has to change, obviously. I mean, maybe, unless you can figure out how to get advertising into these products.

even if they get advertising into the products, Jordan, they need to figure out a way to productize the product to ensure that people are using their AI. Because right now, again, pull up the App Store, Jordan, who's number one, every single day, more people are moving to chat GPT. And it is become evident that over time, people do stop

using Google outright once they make the move to chat GPT. So they have to stop the bleeding. At some point, they have to productize and figure this out. I think they might do it

But they haven't done it yet. So it's astonishing because the tech is unreal. The tech at Google is unreal. If I was at DeepMind right now, I'd be so pissed off that they're coming up with the breakthrough tech. But again, you know, look, and I've said this before, the normie LLM is ChatGPT. And from what I can tell from everybody that I talk to, the people that are doing real work,

tend to gravitate towards Gemini or, you know, Anthropic if it's coding or something like that. But yeah, I mean, the Kleenex is definitely ChachiPT.

Yeah, listen, also a lot of unreal research is being built on top of open AI's models. I just saw an article yesterday where a medical research company had basically proven that they were able to out-diagnose physicians globally by like 72% or some number like that built on top of open AI. It's a diagnosing LLM.

that the medical community is now embracing, which is going to be awesome, obviously. But that's built on top of OpenAI, not on top of Anthropic, right? Not on top of Gemini. But I think there are companies like that built on top of all of those.

But ultimately what happened on the consumer side, ChatGPT is obviously winning. But I don't even care about that, guys. No matter who wins. Who's ultimately winning in this situation? NVIDIA is ultimately winning. And the fact that everyone is so focused on the numbers this quarter, a really weird quarter, by the way, right, where they had some issues with servers.

and we don't know exactly what's going to drop in the quarter and exactly what's going to be pushed into next quarter. It seems like they really started to ramp towards the end of this quarter. Like that's such small time thinking. That's why I'm telling people like, I don't know what number they're going to print. I don't think I care. I'm in Nvidia still. I did my fourth or fifth roll up on my Nvidia options.

So I'm holding this last batch. It's a huge batch of call options. And you know what? If they get zeroed out tomorrow, you know what I'm probably going to do? I'm probably going to go buy even more NVIDIA after the drop, if that's what happens. I'm not playing this earnings at all. I'm holding on to the NVIDIA I have. I'm kicking myself for not buying more a month ago. If it goes down, that might be the signal that I need to buy some more.

I'm also holding, I sold out of half of my Oklo position yesterday, and I'm going to hold the other half through NVIDIA earnings, which was kind of my initial thesis on Oklo, was that they, you know, I just think this whole one week NVIDIA cycle around compute, the conversation, as soon as I saw that Elon Musk, you know,

a quote about us falling short on energy. Um, that was when I tweeted out, you know, Oklo, like, I was like, this is the narrative. This is going to be the narrative and the narrative has to benefit nuclear. So I'm going to hold the other half of my Oklo through Nvidia earnings tomorrow. I'll probably exit that, uh, either, uh, tomorrow or Friday. And I'm

On NVIDIA, I don't care. If I lose my money on my NVIDIA options, I'll probably just pour more money into NVIDIA after it drops. I'm going to keep coming back to it over and over and over again. There's almost nothing that could be said tonight that's going to scare me away from NVIDIA. I'm just telling you. What about TSM? Same thing there, Jordan. So I own both. So your OKLO is your side bet. TSM is mine.

I feel I keep thinking I need to own them too. I just, like I said, I'm spread so thin, I'm levered out. So I have to pick and choose. I got lucky with Oklo this week, but maybe after I get rid of my Oklo, I'll pick up some TSM as well tomorrow. I don't have a whole lot of excess cash. So I'll have to sell out of something to pick up more NVIDIA. And that's it. That's the trade.

So we'll see what happens. We're not financial advisors. Our risk tolerance is like ridiculously high, probably way higher than yours. So never, ever, ever mirror our trades. Just use us for ideas. Do your own homework. Do your own research. Speak to a financial advisor. Do what you want, but don't copy our trades because you're not going to know when we switch out of a

That's the biggest reason, right? I might sell everything I have after the show because something happens personally in my life, right? So I'm not going to disclose every single little thing that I do because I don't want to get in that game. So never copy our trades.

That's it. Fair enough. All right. Well, go back to the conference. Go learn more about Bitcoin. I'm not at the conference. I'm not even in it. I'm taking meetings around the conference. Oh, you're just like literally hanging out in Vegas doing meetings. So I am meeting with investors out here for another project. And I am learning a little bit more about crypto from all these crypto guys. So...

I will come home more educated. I think this model, I still don't think I'm going to trade it. This micro strategy of every other coin model. It just feels so dirty.

I just don't want... It's like the copycat companies. Right. Do I really want to get in that game? And then if you're a little late, you get wiped out.

I'm just not into this crypto stuff. I'm going to hold on my main narrative, my Bitcoin wealth transfer, $100 trillion of wealth getting transferred from people that don't know what Bitcoin is to people that want to be exposed to Bitcoin. And that is the ultimate tailwind over the next 25 years. So I don't care what Bitcoin does day to day.

And with that, we're going to wrap it up. And thank you guys for tuning in. We'll be doing this again soon. So you know where to find us. You never know when. So you just got to always be there. Follow us on X at Dumb Money TV. We have a podcast.

There's a live view of the sphere and the rooftop of the adjoining hotel. There's Trump. There's the Trump building. Yep. That's a good view. Where are you? Oh, there's Wynn. Okay, so... Yeah. I'm wrapping up my trip and getting out of here, but...

All right, we'll come home and we'll have lunch tomorrow or something. All right. That's going to do it for this one. Text mex Friday. Are you in for text mex Friday this week, Dave? Oh, yeah, I'm in. I'm in. I think I'm free Friday. I know. It's been so long. We've been trying to have a text mex date for like way too long. It's embarrassing. All right. Jordan, you should come down Friday. Text mex. The only problem is I've got the girls because Adrian's going out of town.

I'll be, I'll be, I'll be, was it Mr. Mom? Is that a reference? You could bring them, you could bring them down for text mix. I can bring them. I'll come. Better being Mr. Mom than Mrs. Doubtfire. All right. We're done money. I can see you next time.