From Panic to Profit - 3 Big Moves
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Most of the new tariffs are paused for now. The stock market had a historic jump yesterday. Most exciting of all, we got to witness the art of the deal firsthand. Apparently, all along, Donald Trump's plan was to announce nonsense tariffs to the whole world, including uninhabited penguin islands, call them friendly, discounted, reciprocal tariffs, ignore real tariff data, have ChatGPT do some math based on trade deficits, then sit back and watch the stock market crash, the bond market crash, and then the stock market crash.

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was the art of the deal. Today on Dumb Money, we're going to tell you how we're playing it from panic to profit, our three big moves. The NBA playoffs are here, and I'm getting my bets in on FanDuel. Talk to me, Chuck GPT. What do you know? All sorts of interesting stuff. Even Charles Barkley's greatest fear. Hey, nobody needs to know that. New customers bet $5 and get $250 in bonus bets if you win. FanDuel, America's number one sportsbook.

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Hey there, Dave here along with Chris and Jordan. We are Dumb Money. Welcome to Dumb Money Live. A quick reminder to smash the like button. It really does help us out with the almighty algorithm. Chris, Jordan, good morning. We're in tariff pause mode, of course. That is not pause the 120% new tax on stuff we buy from China, which to me sounds like more art of the deal nonsense. There's no way we're going to actually be paying 125% long term on stuff we buy from China. But what do you think?

Yeah. First of all, admittedly, I did not handle the last week really well. I, I, I, you know, I made, I made a, I made a critical error a week ago. Uh, I've been thinking about this administration for a while and how this would play out with tariffs. And my assumption was that Trump would cave a lot quicker than he did. So I, uh,

had initially not really hedged my account aggressively because I thought that he would almost immediately cave. And you and I had a disagreement on that because I thought that he was going to let these go into effect. I didn't realize how quickly he was going to undo it.

after letting it go into effect but you thought he was never going to even let that midnight tariff hit right i i thought he was going to cave honestly multiple days before he did and that was a huge error on my part i lost a lot of money uh then i had to place my hedge late which was really expensive cost me a ton of money to put that hedge on late

Um, then, uh, when he did cave it, I, you know, I sent that text to our group chat on Sunday night saying that he can't lose this much longer. Right. I said, he, he, he cannot handle losing and he's going to cave yet.

I didn't have enough confidence in that to take that huge hedge off. And I had such a massive hedge going into yesterday from the evening before, as you recall, which was set to work beautifully until it looks like Japan, China, maybe one or two other countries crashed the bond market and forced him to

to Cave yesterday morning. I should have listened to his tweet like other people did. Yeah. Were you not live trading his tweets yesterday? Because when he said, be cool, I took my hedge off because I was also hedged. I had spy puts. When he said...

Today's a good day to buy. I got back into my triple leverage QQQ in my retirement account, which I had sold out as the market was falling apart. Why didn't you text me? Why didn't you text me on that? Why would I need to text you? The president texted you directly. I just...

I got to a point where I didn't know what to believe. That's what I've learned. My biggest learning of this is to when the president says bye, bye. Like I'm going to next time put $1,000 into zero DTE options on the spy anytime that Trumpy social account says bye.

i listen it's just a gamble it's a it's not it's not an investment it's a gamble and i did see i don't know if you saw this but uh there were there were some zero dte options that were trading for one cent

Four hours before the announcement, if you just bought those in the morning when he said to chill out and it's a good day to buy that, that $1,000 trade would be worth $1.5 million. It would have basically undone all of this tariff nonsense in my account. Yeah. Yeah. That's about what I've lost so far.

Listen, we like to talk about when we do things right, and I think it's really important to talk about when we do things wrong. And I just made a couple critical errors in misjudging how long it would take for him to fold. And then when he finally folded, I missed that by a small amount, which a couple hours was too long.

i took my hedge off yesterday as a result yesterday was a great day obviously um today is a little painful again this is are you at all heads today so this no i'm not and this is a tough this is a tough market and and we're all in this trying to figure it out right day to day i think what we learned uh is that

Trump has kind of hit his limit in terms of pain. He does fully understand now that he is handcuffed. And I think he'll be probably a bit more careful going forward in terms of what he thinks he's capable of doing in terms

As it relates to this tariff situation, I think he wanted to negotiate no tariffs on us for anything. And by putting crazy tariffs on everyone, he wanted to bring people to the negotiating table. And he was just unable to keep the crazy trades tariffs in effect for as long as he wanted to.

well now there's an assumption in the market also that we're not going to you know people are just assuming these China tariffs are going to dissipate and to some extent right uh because of what happened over the last 24 hours there was some messaging that came out that said they might make exemptions company by company which

again would just destroy small businesses do the exact opposite thing of what he was trying to do so I you know I don't know what to believe anymore and I think that that's what the market's kind of doing right now is they don't know what to believe no one knows what to believe and it's not stable Jordan I've been thinking about that a lot over the last couple days about the winners and losers of how this actually plays out and I 100 agree with you it feels like the Russell

is what you would want to hedge in short going forward. Do you agree? Because the smaller companies are going to get slaughtered here. The larger companies are likely to get exemptions, I would imagine, because they have the political bandwidth to cut those deals. And they're large enough to get the attention to get those deals and those exemptions cut from the administration. Would you agree on that?

i yes i mean yeah i mean that logically makes sense um just sitting here with what we know today but on the other hand who knows i mean who knows what these people are going to do it's you know it's erratic basically you have to put you have to you know you have to place your bet you got to buy the ticket you got to take the ride but you don't know where the ride's going uh they can change in a tweet in an instant

And I think that's the biggest problem is that investors are starting to see, hey, businesses can't operate like this. And so there's going to be no growth in the economy. The U.S. is done until this nonsense stops. Okay, so I agree with you, but, and we'll get to our actual trades here before the show is done, we promise. But on a macro level...

I think this is kind of played out. He now has to wrap it up and claim a win. Right, Jordan? This is how Trump operates. He has already started the process of trying to claim a win. It's not going great. I think because of today's price action in the market, it puts additional pressure on the administration now to wrap this up and not put...

push too hard. If today was a continuation of yesterday, I think it would have given them the false confidence that maybe they can go out back and push hard on China. Because of today's retracement, I think that provides additional pressure to get things done with China, to get things done with other countries and large companies, to wrap this up over the next few weeks to couple months.

and move on to the next issue where they could hopefully calculate it better and get cleaner wins. Because remember, the motivation of this administration and Trump

is always to claim wins, okay? That's the one takeaway that we can count on. They want wins. Now, the wins don't actually have to be wins, but they have to be able to claim wins, okay? I thought they just bumped up the tariffs on China again. I think we're...

They did. We're at 125. 125%. And I think that yesterday... No, I thought it came out that it's 145 now. Oh, we've done more since I started writing that intro. I thought that I saw it also on Twitter earlier. Wait, is that real? I might have missed that. 145. Yes. Wow. Yep. Dude.

But we also now have the Trump budget passed the House and the 2017 tax cuts are permanent. Apparently, I'm just I'm getting headlines in real time here. And I think that yesterday, part of the market's excitement was tariff paused was the headline. But nobody really knew exactly what that meant. You had to really like parse the words of Trump's.

I can't call it a truth. Okay. I'm just going to call it a Trump. When Trump trumped on Trumpy social, nobody knew what that really meant. And,

And apparently we still have 10% across the board, which is way higher than the tariffs used to be. I saw analysis by the analysis warning saying that effectively across all of our exports, we're still now sitting at a tariff rate on average in the 20 to 25% range. That was effectively 30% after the Rose Garden, you know, when he brought out the menu board of how much tariffs are going to be.

On average, based on what we actually export, that would be about 30%. So now we're in the 20% to 25% range. We used to be at 3%. So 10%, way higher than 3%.

And I don't think anyone really was thinking about that. Without any additional news, I kind of thought the market would pull back a little bit today once we digested that we still are in, even though we're in paused tariffs, we're only in paused new tariffs, and that's only the excessive menu board of tariffs, not the normal 10% tariffs, which would be considered abnormal by historic standards.

Listen, I'm going to stand by this. I believe that the administration needs the win.

the only way that they get the win is by wrapping this up uh they have to move beyond this whole tariff issue because it's not playing well for the administration right now they have lost the faith of the business community everyone is ripping on this administration right now it is

a massive weakness point for Trump right now. They have to move forward. They have to wrap it up. Obviously, it was a massive mistake the last week. Well, it's not just the business community. It's also the international community because as we heard, Japan has been dumping long-term U.S. treasuries, which is why long-term yields have been going up. So is that still going on today? I don't know. Yields are up again today, so I don't know who's doing the selling. Guys, we know this.

It is easy for them to claim wins here. This administration could claim a win out of anything. All they need to do is do something. We could end up with less than we had before, and they would still claim a win. They're going to find a way to claim a win. We know that. And so knowing that, let's talk about our moves. What are we going to do in anticipation of the win you know is coming from Trump, regardless of how big of a win it is?

It actually is, you know, monetarily. Okay. So I have this thesis that because of the way this played out, this is going to leave such a negative mark on the administration that even when they wrap it up over the course of the next few weeks, right, maybe sooner, but over the next few weeks,

They're still going to walk away pretty beaten up. And internally, they're going to have to figure out how to win back the business community because it's a really important anchor for this administration. And one thing that you heard them say,

surfacing again recently was this Trump plan to eliminate capital gains. Have you heard the buzz recently about that? Like he's continuing to bring it up. It seems like an impossibility that he could actually pull that off. But I do believe that that is something they're going to attempt. And they know that if they were to pull that off,

That would win. Do we agree that if we somehow get through this tariff mess and we end up roughly in the same place, maybe tariffs are a little bit higher than they were before it started.

Okay. But if we're able to wrap up tariffs and then they have to figure out how to win back the business community, if they go for the elimination of capital gains and are able to make that happen. Doesn't that just make it easier to sell? What? Doesn't that just make it easier to sell?

It makes it easier to sell, it makes it easier to buy, it makes it easier to just freely trade your account without having to worry about having it up-sized gain. Right. And then if there's any roadblock, you just sell everything because it doesn't matter, right? If there's no capital gain. Jordan, you're going to sell and then you're going to immediately buy back again. Yes, you would exit positions you've been wanting to exit, but you know what else is going to happen, Jordan, that's bigger than that? Forget about public markets for a second.

If that actually happens, there will be so many private transactions. The liquidity in private transactions, the liquidity in venture, the number of IPOs that you will see happen is...

with the elimination of capital gains, this would be a monumental moment for capital markets. And even without that thesis playing out, my number one play coming out of this tariff situation just happens to be the company that I think might be amongst the top winners with the removal of capital gains. And

And Dave, you know who it is, right? I'm sure because the way you set this up, I know that you and I have the exact same stock picked as our big move. I just want to point out that on X, the other day I saw a tweet that said, President Trump says the U.S. is on track to completely eliminate capital gains this year. My response was by completely eliminating capital gains. That was everybody's response, but...

I think I was the first. Check the timestamps. I fact-checked that. But yes. And I can tell you firsthand, we haven't yet even... You haven't said the stock yet, have you? I haven't said it. And you know what? I don't... I hate being that guy. I can't... You know who my big... The people that I hate the most are the people that have been just...

I have a lot of crypto friends. I love my crypto friends. I love crypto people. But a few of the influencers on X who for four years would only say the same thing every day, Bitcoin. I want to eliminate them from the world. I can't handle that. So I hate the fact that I'm about to talk about the same stock I've been talking about for eight months.

But it's just what it is. It's just what it is. And I can tell you firsthand that the stock that you're about to mention, I checked my screen time on my iPhone yesterday. It is actually now in the number one position of the past week of apps that I've been using. It has beaten X, which is normally at the top of my thing, just from a pure time spent doom-scrolling.

The app you're about to mention is the most used app on my iPhone in the past week.

It's, it's, it's, it's Robin hood. Okay. And, and I think Robin hood, if you look at the companies that recovered the most yesterday, if you look at the companies that pop the hardest yesterday, when I looked, it was up 25%. That's right. 25%. I mean, I I'm sure there were, there were probably a couple of companies that recovered harder than Robin hood, but not many. And that,

to me, is a clear indication of what to look for when we finally fully wrap up this tariff mess. I think once the tariff mess is wrapped up, and I believe it probably will be wrapped up here within a few weeks, I hope,

it seems clear to me that Robinhood is going to be one of the biggest winners and has set up the best for a recovery move. And the fact that it came back down today somewhat, not that much, but came back down today, I just, I love it. I love it right here. I love it. And if there's one company that I am going to recommend

I've already kind of doubled down on it. But if there's one company I will double down again as I start to see the tariff situation go away,

It's going to be Robin Hood. It's really clear to me. And then in the event that the conversation of this administration to repair its relationship with the business community starts a transition to the elimination of capital gains,

Again, another massive tailwind for Robinhood, in addition to some of the other banks, right? Like not Robin is not a bank, right? But but obviously, I think also beneficiaries would be Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, right? Like, did you see the clip yesterday from the Oval Office of the White House where the president is introducing some people and introduces Charles Schwab, who is

in the Oval Office and said, oh, this guy made some good money today, $2.5 billion. And this guy made, like, what is going on? So here's the thing. When we have situations like we've had over the past couple weeks, it introduces a massive amount of noise, a massive amount of confusion. It gets our emotions running high. And sometimes these are the best times to kind of

to cut through the noise to just identify the winner because it brings the entire market down, right? Yeah. It doesn't matter what space you're in. You could be relying on China, relying on Vietnam. You could be a retail company, a financial company. The indexes were being sold. So everyone was being sold off. I, I,

Robin Hood was being sold for good reason here, right? Because if the market stays in a prolonged recessionary period, it's going to get impacted. But clearly, we all know this wasn't going to last. I mean, come on. It's just a matter of timing, right? Like how long would it last? And I still believe that today. I think we'll wrap this up within a few weeks. And Robin Hood has to be the clear winner. And timing the market is always impossible.

Well, timing is, yeah, timing is impossible, but there might be some actual losers here because like you said, if tariffs end up going up from low single digits to high single digits, or maybe even 10%,

kind of globally, that's a really big negative for a lot of companies. But, you know, and listen, that might depress trading to some extent, right? If the overall capital gets reduced across portfolios, that's a negative for Robinhood as well. But I do believe they have to replace

pair they have to repair this relationship and and and there's the best way to do it is the elimination of capital gains i think they're going to go for it i really do if you read between the lines it they they're setting indications that that that's their move to repair their relationship has to be robin so i'm robin hood chris is robin hood jordan what is your big move

uh my big move is uh short any pop that we see because I'm over it I think it's over sure at the tops right now I should have shorted yesterday yesterday morning or yesterday afternoon I almost did I thought there'd be some continuation there wasn't so I I don't know I mean I I don't see anything positive happening you're telling me that if we

finally wrap this up over the next few weeks and we settle things with China and we settle things with the rest of the world, we do have a higher tariff globally. How is that good for trade? How is that good for commerce? How is that good for growth? It's not. It's not good. Stocks are still expensive relatively to any period of time. I just don't see how any of this is going to

and well. Jordan, it's not good. Okay, I agree with you. It's a net negative for everybody. But how much of a net negative relative to everything else that's going on in the world, which is kicking off

what I believe is the largest cycle of productivity gains that we will maybe see in our lifetime as we start to productize and commercialize artificial intelligence across every single industry sector, making every single industry sector way more productive. That is going to happen over years, not over months. We really have it over years. I'm talking about the short to midterm. I just don't see anything good happening.

I think that once we can settle this, the market expectations were so down and out on this terrorist. Then what's the next dumb thing that happens? It's just it's disaster after disaster. But Jordan, that's what I'm getting at. And what I'm getting at is this was so dumb. No, no. What I'm saying is this is so dumb. This created so much damage, reputational damage.

Not just reputational damage for the administration, it's

What foreign country wants to buy our bonds now when you can just blow things up overnight with a tweet? I just don't see anybody finding any stability here for years. I feel weird to other countries. Even if we do have a crazy leverage play with the way social media can impact the markets, it still seems to be the place where most people park their money.

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No. So, Jordan, I think we have shown that the bond markets and other countries' ability to have a chokehold on us through the debt that they own, okay,

has basically shown us that that is the new put. Okay. We just discovered that in the last two days. Okay. That is really important because we did not have any constraint before that. Congress has basically given up all control to the president. We all know that the president does not have the ability to tax and to tariff

without congressional approval, but he found a way to circumvent that with this emergency fentanyl story that we all know is ridiculous, okay? So we did not know. There was too much concentrated power that was creating chaos over the last week. But now we discovered over the last two days that we have a way to control that through the bond market, okay? That's actualized.

We're not controlling it through the bond market right now. You've got the 30-year selling off again. You've got the 10-year selling off again. There's no... It's not under control. It's out of control, Chris. But...

The market is working. They're selling off. That's going to put additional pressure on us to resolve this situation. It's going to be really volatile for the next few days. Dollars are going down. So basically, I mean, everything that's in front of you is telling just flashing warning signs that people are losing trust in the United States economy. I agree with you, but that is over the short term. So how do you gain trust? It takes time. And that's not...

Days, it's not months. It's years, Chris. It's years. I don't think so. I think that's the right thing. It's years. Pedro, come on. You got Pedro siding with you. By the way, I could be wrong. This is my opinion. I know you could be wrong, and I could be wrong. I'm an optimist.

But I do think that the sentiment is so down and out. And I'm not just talking about investor sentiment. I'm talking about globally sentiment on the United States is at an all-time low right now. I 100% agree with you. But what we saw in the last 24 hours, if you look at the statements, the reversal that Trump has taken in terms of his... He's admitting. He's admitting that...

that he went too far. He's admitting that he got scared. Did you see his statement? No, it's not. The statement was that he saw Bond and he knows that that's

how the government funds itself is through bonds. And so you can't push the bond market that far. You know what? You don't get to choose, right? You don't get to choose who buys and sells. That's the market. And so the market right now is saying, we don't trust America. He didn't want to create a depression. He used the word depression. The fact that he realized now in his head that he had gone so far that he could have

pause the depression. He realizes that his actions actually have consequences. For the first time in his life, he's had a consequence for something that he's done. And he's like, whoa, what just happened here? I'm not used to this. This is a new feeling I'm having. Maybe I should undo what I just did. I actually think that when we are done with this whole thing,

That everyone is going to be so relieved. I think the entire world is going to be so relieved. I think American investors are going to be so relieved. I think his administration and Trump himself is going to be so relieved.

hurt that he has that, that, that his, by the way, I think his approval ratings are going to come down. Approval ratings are delayed. They're delayed by like, but they already, they already had come down. He had the biggest drop off. He, he, he still is above where he was in his first term approval waiting rating wise, at least the last time I saw, but his, he dropped really quickly from day one to,

Faster than I've seen any of the other. The slope on his approval rating drop was faster than any previous president in recent times. I am telling you, I do not... If there's one thing I think I know about Trump, he cannot handle a prolonged period of time where everybody hates him. He can not handle it. And he is going to do whatever it takes to make Trump

American investors love him again. He's going to do whatever he has to do. Make investors love him again.

Yes, I think he's in a corner right now. I think he's in a corner and he's butthurt, okay? And I think he is going to do whatever it takes over the coming months to try to reverse that. Yeah, somebody else in the chat just brought up debt. So that's the other problem is that we're still running the same deficits that we have been. These tax cuts aren't going to help it. And as we've seen from all of the public spending data,

None of what's happened with Doge or any of that has caused any drop in spending or deficit spending. Agreed. So the debt just keeps piling up, and yet we want to pass tax cuts and things like that. Does that make you want to buy bonds? Well, again, you're missing one thing.

And that's the super cycle that we are sitting on the front end of that hasn't started yet.

The only part of the super cycle, the AI super cycle that has begun is the investment piece of it. Right. So we're investing tons of money. We haven't seen any of the returns yet. But I firmly believe that the returns that we will receive as an economy from this AI super cycle will be unlike anything we've seen in our history.

human history, right, of our lives. And I think this could pull us out of this situation that we're in right now. I truly believe that. And even if it doesn't, I think there will be a level of optimism that it potentially can. And I think that will rebuild faith in our capital markets. I do. I think maybe I'm being too optimistic by that. But

If we get a capital gains cut even at some point between now and the end of the year, it's game on, especially for financial services.

And I think you have to pay attention to financial services, even as conversations start around that subject matter. So I think we're going to clear out this tariff situation over the next few weeks. I think he's going to try to repair his relationship with American investors. I think he's going to do that by...

trying to eliminate the capital gains tax. And that will be a massive tailwind for the financial services sector. I think Robinhood might end up being the biggest winner of that. And that's my stock. That's the stock that I'm buying more of. Anytime I get new cash, anytime I get a check in the mail. So I'll get a check. You got someone that was at a 25% discount yesterday, right?

What? You got more hood yesterday when it was 25% off. I did buy more hood. I have a check. I'm going to... I have a check on Monday coming to me for Collecticon. I'm taking that check. I'm cashing it. I'm buying more Robin Hood. Maybe I'll get a little check in a couple weeks from my restaurant. I'm cashing it. I'm buying more Robin Hood. Okay. I have a deal. Anytime I need to see a cow.

I haven't. You're probably paying taxes right now, too, though. So what are you where are you finding more cash? That's my biggest problem. All my cash is going to the government and I can't buy more Robin Hood right now.

oh you just ruined my plan dave you're right i forgot about that you know where your cash is going that's next week i do have a big you know what i was on the phone my accountant yesterday and he got me so excited he told me that i didn't owe any taxes and i i was like i was like you made a mistake

He made a mistake. And I was like, what, can you tell me where you're like, how much do you have for my capital gains? Like, cause I had a massive year last year for capital gains, insane year for capital gains off my trading account. And he was like, Oh no, you had like a hundred thousand. I was like,

what account are you looking at? And he told me the account number. I was like, no, no, no, no, no. That's the wrong state. Did you not get, cause I uploaded all these into the cloud for him. I was like, did you not get the one for this account? He's like, no. I was like, Oh God.

I was in my car and I pulled my laptop out and I pull it up and I'm like, do you know how much I earned last year on capital gains from my Schwab account? And

And dude, it's going to be a rough week next week. By the way, I do think that's a negative going into next week that maybe no one's talking about right now. Last year was a massive year for investors and capital gains. I think this is creeping up on people and they're going to be pulling money out of their account over the next year. Yeah, people should have been paying by now. Don't people pay quarterly? You should. You should. But I don't. I don't. Do people actually do that?

I just pay the penalty. The penalty is less than what I'm making in the market. What I do is I try to pay everything by the fourth quarterly due date, which is like January something. So I've got like a weird spreadsheet that I can just pump a bunch of stuff into and then guesstimate. Yeah. See, I never have any clue how much I'm going to owe until the actual end of the year. And then I don't even bother until April 15th. Hold on, guys.

this is important breaking news no it's not breaking news like i gotta cut out of here in eight minutes and jordan that is not the trade that you told us about that you were going to discuss today oh we'll talk about that one later i mean there's no reason to even talk about that trade right now it doesn't make any sense especially with tariffs the way they are um what's

Okay. You're right. They would be impacted by this. It definitely impacts this trade. I love this trade. It's just not the trade for today. We will do another show. It has to do with global warming. If you're looking for a big, good, liberal, sissy trade, it's a great global warming.

oh jordan's got a lip trade i love it right actually that'll be the title of the episode the funny thing is big lib trade jordan's big lip today i actually really like jordan's trade so i won't i won't i won't hint at it but we got to get past like like chris said we got to get past all this tariff stuff maybe it never happens because uh we just

It's going to happen. All right. So we need to China and then everything ends. All right. When we come out, when we come out of the terror stuff, we'll do another show on that trade. So for now, Jordan's going to keep shorting the mark. The market's going to pop big time when we get out of this mess. I'm not shorting the market right now. I keep it keeps evading me where my points that I want to short at keep

Not making it. So, you know. Well, when the market does pop, you know what Jordan's doing. He's going to short it. He's going to short it. He's not a believer. I'm a believer. I am going to buy even more hood probably the day that the market pops, just like I did even throughout yesterday.

because I just think it's going to move and continue to move once we can get through this mess. This mess has been terrible for Robinhood. But you're staying out of margin as much as possible right now. You're not super leveraged. You're net long, but you're not leveraged, right?

Probably a little. You're a little leveraged. A little leveraged. A little. I know. But you being a little leveraged is essentially a normal person being anti-leveraged. Can I talk about a stock that got murdered? It's one of my stocks. If you have time. I thought you had to go. Maybe worse than any stock on the market from this tariff mess. Thank goodness I had sold...

most of it but I did keep some of it and the sum of it that I kept I lost six figures just on the little bit oh let me guess Amazon nope nope not even close that has gotten killed though it's gotten killed but I still like Amazon I'm not selling my Amazon on my Apple a lot everything's been killed yeah this stock is so reliant on China

It's not even funny. And it's so off everyone's radar, but the people that know, know, and they have sold it off so much. So once we actually resolve... I think the best guess is probably Decker's or maybe Restoration Hardware.

No, I've looked at all. By the way, of the stocks that are probably like of the common stocks that people know of that they're relying on China, because I kept looking for ones that were super reliant and I would do deep research on every one of these companies. And believe it or not, like a lot of these companies have diversified out of China. So most of them are only like 30, 40 percent relying on China. Now, the toy companies are still pretty reliant. I think Mattel is fairly reliant on China.

um but there was one of those one of those retail companies oh my gosh who who was it now even crocs has started to diversify out of china there was one which is the one that i told you guys i was shorting this week god this is gonna really piss me off if i don't remember this because i want to talk about this i'm gonna have to look in my account and look at my trades now my uh

I love Chris' story time. He doesn't actually know what he's talking about. He just really hypes it up until he can't remember the catchphrase. What's the company? The stock that got crushed, I'll tell you that one. It's Corsair. You know, we had episodes on Corsair, right? Corsair makes basically... But you were still in that? That was a short-term trade. I sold most of it. I sold most of it. No, no, no, guys, guys.

I sold most of it. I kept like 20% of my position, but even the 20% that I kept was enough. When the stock went down 50%, it was, it went down 50%. Okay. So like I actually, if we can resolve China, I'm going to pop back into Corsair. Corsair is at like six bucks, dude. It was at $13. It was like 13 bucks. What? Like six weeks ago. Yeah.

Yeah, it's at $6. Okay. I still think the thesis for Corsair is,

still is there yeah it's still there the thesis of ai being able to be in your box at your house like that is still a thesis that is in the early stages okay i think that's still a driver for corsair then it doesn't cost 150 percent more to import your corsair products then yeah

If it's 140% tariff on them, they're cooked. They might be out of business within a year if that tariff actually goes through. But assuming it doesn't go through, yeah, they'd be in good shape. God, it pisses me off. History. Okay, guys, let me just look at this. Do you have thoughts on, real quick before we go, Abercrombie & Fitch? I found it.

I found it. Okay. What is it? Sketchers. Yeah. Actually seems like it was the one retail company that seemed to have, uh,

The largest concentration of supply chain coming directly from China still. And they hadn't really diversified that much out of China. So that was the short that I had. And it did well. It did well this last week. These countries got killed. So...

i think i don't know if they can resolve the situation with china sketchers might be another one to think about hopping in really quick there are sketchers is a great uh recessionary shoe brand because they are you can get a good pair of shoes i mean they're ugly but they're a good pair of shoes for like you know less than 100 bucks

yeah yeah so no well i don't good maybe i don't know they're ugly they're ugly yeah no i just mean i just mean like they're a good like they're a good brand for recession yeah yeah which which brand sketchers yeah i like sketchers i they're they're my uh travel shoes

Are they really? Yeah. I've never owned a pair of Skechers. The slip-ins are super comfortable. It's just like that knit kind of thing, but with more of a foam tennis shoe bottom. Super comfortable. Are you going full granddad, Dave? I don't wear them here, but when I'm in Mexico, I wear my slip-in Skechers. Is this who we are now?

I mean, look at how old you have. You checked your birth date. I can't talk because I'm still living in the early 2000s wearing Tom's every day. Yeah, but Chris, you. Oh, yeah, that's true. Yeah, that's true. You you are. You can't talk fashion shoe wear. That's right. I have no fashion. But it's not it's not a it's not a fashion competition with these sketchers. They're just comfortable and they're good to wear in a lazy beach town.

Well, that's fine. And by the way, where do you live in Mexico, Dave? No one's seeing you. Probably everybody wears Skechers down there. I'll do a little informal survey of the dive bar next time I'm there. Oh, my God. Are you the only American in that dive bar? No, no. It's like half and half. It's half locals and then half, you know, American expats who just like go to the dive bar literally every single day. It's the same people every time.

Do you like know them? Like, are you friends? I'm not, I'm not an everyday kind of visitor. I go once a month maybe, but it's always the same people. So I can only imagine unless we happen to all be picking the same day out of the month, it's pretty much yeah. The same, same crowd shout out. If you're watching at happy hour in North of Rosarito, is that what it's called? Just come say hi. I'll say hi next time. Yeah. Happy hour, right at KM 43 off of the, off of the toll road there.

In northern Baja, Mexico. Come say hi. Let me know you're in town. I'll meet you at happy hour. You shouldn't say that. Someone's going to come kidnap you, Dave. Then I got to go rescue you. You are so afraid of Mexico. I do not understand it. You have a better chance of being kidnapped in downtown L.A. than you do in the touristy zones in Baja.

All right. Well, I have a lunch that I have to go to in Highland Park Village right now. So I've got to get out of here. The absolute opposite of the dive bar in Mexico. All right. Have a good lunch. Thank you guys for tuning in. We are Dumb Money. We will see you again whenever we do a show. There's only one way to know when we do that, and that's to subscribe.

And follow us on X because we now have more viewers on X than we do on YouTube. By the way, Dave and I were in Austin this week. Oh, yes. And we had a really fun time with Jack and Graham Ice Coffee Hour. I think they're going to publish our episode on Sunday, right? That's what I hear. So if you want to hear a continuation of the conversation about tariffs –

where we are basically talking. I don't even know what we said because everything has changed since then, but hopefully it's still a relevant conversation. Yeah. So check in with that channel on Sunday. The Ice Coffee Hour on YouTube. All right. We'll see you next time.