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Our #1 Trump Trade

2024/11/19
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Dumb Money Live

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Dave: 大选后,我们所有押注特朗普的投资都获得了巨大成功,例如特斯拉、比特币和GEO Group。但特朗普2.0概念已被市场消化,我们需要考虑新的投资机会。我认为最重要的投资主题是放松管制,这将惠及所有行业和公司。最能从放松管制中获益的是那些敢于冒险、积极进取的公司和个人。我们需要关注那些敢于挑战极限、积极利用放松管制环境的公司和CEO,例如特斯拉和Robinhood。Robinhood收购TradePMR,进军财富管理领域,这是一个巨大的战略举措,将对传统华尔街公司构成挑战。Robinhood的目标是参与你的每一笔金融交易,这将使其在千禧一代和Z世代中获得巨大优势。政府将制定国家层面的自动驾驶汽车法规,这将对特斯拉有利。由于与特朗普政府的关系,特斯拉更有可能获得利好消息。Figure AI发布的视频将促使特斯拉采取行动来应对。我增加了特斯拉的仓位,因为我相信其利好消息即将到来。需要Optimus机器人实际应用的证据才能让市场对其价值进行充分评估。Optimus机器人需要在生产线上实际应用才能真正引起市场的关注。资本市场正逐渐意识到人形机器人对各行各业的影响。人形机器人领域的投资时机即将到来,但具体时间难以预测。Brett Adcock发布的视频将促使特斯拉加快Optimus机器人的发展。我的首选投资是Robinhood,但特斯拉仍然是我的最大仓位。 Chris: 我已不再追问原因,而是接受现实,并调整投资策略。我们必须接受并适应新的现实,调整投资和交易策略。马斯克与特朗普的密切关系出乎我的意料。特朗普团队内部人士对马斯克与特朗普关系密切感到不满。在当前的政治环境下,Robinhood将成为最大的受益者。Robinhood的夜间交易量正在增长,这增加了其平台的粘性。Robinhood未来可能会进军体育博彩领域。在当前的放松管制环境下,Robinhood进军体育博彩领域的可能性很大。 Jordan: 我认为特朗普家族内部成员对未来权力布局的影响力大于特朗普本人。特朗普的子女们可能会为了长远利益而与马斯克结盟。如果我是特朗普的子女,我会鼓励父亲与马斯克结盟以获得长期的利益。特朗普的子女们会为了自身利益,鼓励父亲与那些能为他们带来长期利益的人结盟,例如马斯克。特朗普与外部人士的关系通常难以持久,因此需要密切关注其与马斯克关系的变化。我认为特朗普正在逐渐淡出权力中心,他的家族成员将拥有更大的影响力。我们应该关注特朗普家族成员的长期关系,而不是特朗普本人。我对特斯拉的投资策略是短期交易其看涨期权。特斯拉的投资存在风险,因为其与特朗普政府的关系可能发生变化。

Deep Dive

Chapters
Post-election market analysis reveals top-performing Trump trades, including Tesla, Bitcoin, and GeoGroup. The discussion transitions to considering future market trends in light of a 'Trump 2.0' scenario and the potential shift in winning trades.
  • Post-election market surge
  • Tesla, Bitcoin, and GeoGroup as top performers
  • Uncertainty about future winning trades under Trump 2.0

Shownotes Transcript

Translations:
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After the election, the stock market hit all-time highs. All of our Trump trades were big winners like Tesla, Bitcoin, GeoGroup.

Our portfolios had the best week that I can remember. But now that the idea of Trump 2.0 is setting in and it's more priced into the markets, what's next? Will the old Trump trades continue to be the winners? Or is there something new to look out for? Tesla was up yesterday on rumors that some sort of national self-driving car regulations could come next year, but still down from the news that the EV tax credit could be dozed.

Meanwhile, MicroStrategy keeps buying more Bitcoin, another $4.6 billion of it, and is in the process of raising even more money to buy even more Bitcoin. Here's a twist. DJT, Donald Trump's media holding company that's behind Truth Social, is

Donald Trump owns 65% of that, by the way. It might be buying a crypto trading platform called Bakkt from the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange. We also heard yesterday that Coinbase's CEO met privately with Trump. That didn't move Coinbase's stock, but Coin is already up about 50% since the election. So lots happening. What's the play today on Dumb Money, our number one Trump trade? This is Dumb Money Live.

This episode is brought to you by GlobalX. Since 2008, GlobalX ETFs has been committed to empowering investors with unexplored intelligence solutions. GlobalX specializes in exchange-traded funds that offer exposure to the artificial intelligence ecosystem, including themes like data centers, robotics, semiconductors, and cloud computing. To learn more about GlobalX's entire suite of ETFs, from covered calls, fixed income, emerging markets, and more, visit globalxetfs.com.

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Hey there, Dave here along with Chris and Jordan. We are Dumb Money. Welcome to Dumb Money Live, reminding you to take a second, smash the like button, let the almighty algorithm know that we're on, help make markets green again. Chris Jordan, before we jump in, I do want to talk about something that I don't think we've talked about yet.

but it's relevant with that Coinbase secret meeting and Trump media and talks to buy a crypto exchange. We haven't yet really talked about the fact that the former U.S. president and the president-elect of the United States is a spokesperson for a meme coin project that according to their own documentation, the Trump family gets 75% of the revenue and has zero liability. And that apparently online reports are it's hard to buy and impossible to sell and run by government.

How is this even real? Like first, first of all. Yeah, I think, I think I've stopped asking how and just, uh,

There's no reason to ask the why anymore. It's just, okay, it's happening. Things that I thought would never be possible are just simply happening. So I think we just have to come to terms with that. And I think to some extent, people's brains are still not kind of resetting themselves for this new reality we're in. Even for guys like us that are thinking about this every single day, it's

it's really hard to believe. And I think at some point you just have to believe it and you have to, you know, adjust your investment strategy and your trading strategy around the fact that this is happening. Um, the pictures, I mean, I, I, I didn't think that Elon would actually be spending meaningful time with Trump post election. Did you, I didn't think that was going to happen. Um, I kind of thought that he would, uh,

be involved, but I didn't think that he would just be on Burger King runs with him. I'm hearing mixed signals about this too. What are you hearing? I have heard that some members of the Trump team are super annoyed that he's hanging around too much and that he might be putting his nose where at least some people don't think it belongs. I'm wondering how long

you know, this will, this will last now maybe maybe it is going well. And there's just some jealousy there. I don't know. But I know at least some people are not happy about it. I feel like it's like an early bromance. And they're still, you know, in that, you know, dating phase, and eventually they'll, they'll spend less time together. But right now, I mean, the pictures that we're getting the videos, we're seeing them together, I think it's kind of hilarious. But

We'll see where that goes. Jordan, do you think there are people outside of the Trump immediate inner circle family? Because at the end of the day, I feel like his inner circle, from what I understand, are family and a couple of really trusted, trusted friends. Right.

Beyond that, do you think there are other people in this administration that truly have any kind of leverage over anything that Trump and his inner circle family want to do? My thought process is this. I don't think Trump is going to ultimately be kind of driving a lot of the orientation of who has leverage and who doesn't have leverage as much as his inner circle will. And if his inner circle are his children,

you know, you get in the mindset of a Trump junior, right? Of an Eric, the close family members. Don't you think that long-term,

They might want to align themselves with an Elon as opposed to these other random political people that are coming in following on the Trump who, who after the, this administration, we don't know what their degree of power in the world is going to be. If you were, if you were Trump jr, if you were his inner circle and you were thinking, Oh,

What strategic moves can I make right now that will benefit me over the next 25 or 30 years? Would you not want to encourage your dad to align with an Elon to set your... Because you know that regardless of what happens... Yeah, right. So it's one of those things that, yeah, I think strategically you can see all of the benefits for both like a Tesla and for the United States in general to be...

kind of in bed with elon um forget about no no jordan you're thinking about that i'm not asking you about it i'm not asking you about i'm asking you about the p this is reality i'm talking about the people that are influencing trump his kids his family selfishly who do you think they are going to encourage their dad to give the ultimate power to for themselves for the next because they're young they're not old they're young they're going to be around for 20 30 years

Post this administration, regardless of who ends up being president the next 8, 10, 12, 15, 16 years, who do you think they want to be Titus with in the world to benefit themselves, their family, their own future political endeavors should they choose to run for office in the future? Who do you think they think will be the next president?

will give them the most amount of power when their dad is no longer relevant, when he's gone? Do you not think that they're going to do everything they can to try to encourage their dad to grease the wheels for what Elon wants as opposed to some other random people in his... I think it's maybe a thought. I just think that also on the, you know, look, it can go either way. I'm not saying which way it's going to go. I'm just saying that it seems like

Trump relationships outside of that inner circle don't really last that long. Right. But I find, you know, it tends to go poorly in some way a lot of the time with Donald Trump. Right. We see a lot of we see a lot of close allies that then are pushed to the, you know, push to the outside. And so I think the like in my mind, if I'm making trades based on this information, I

that I are based on this relationship that I just need to keep my eyes open in case I see that relationship go downhill. I agree with you. I'm going to show you the new Trump family portrait, though, and just see if one of those faces is not a member of the family. Two of them, actually. There's Elon and Elon's kid. Yeah.

fully embraced into the Trump family. Wouldn't you want, wouldn't you want your, uh, your speed dial to include Elon? Just if you think about like, well, like Chris is saying it's, it's political power versus monetary and corporate power, which I mean, I think that we look, this is how politics works now. Is it?

politicians or corporatists and that they align themselves with the corporate donors and the

try to be the beneficiaries of that corporate power, right? So it's nothing new. I feel like, you listen, we've been saying for a long time that Trump, no one is able, very few people are able to maintain a relationship with Trump politically and even in business for any meaningful amount of time. But I think I've seen some things in the last,

you know, six to 12 months that is reorienting the way I think about this away from Trump and towards Trump inner circle. The things that I've been seeing over the past few months with his crypto coin lead me to believe that Trump

is now starting to check out. And I mean, very early stages. I mean, there are other people in his family, in his inner circle that have a lot more leverage than anyone has had in the past. And I think this becomes less about

who will Trump maintain a relationship with long-term and more about who will Trump's inner circle, his family, who will they maintain? Because I do believe that unlike Trump, I believe that other members of his family, including his kids,

are likely, way more likely to maintain a long lasting relationship with new power figures that they feel will be beneficial to them and their families and their political ambitions over the long term. So I don't think this is about Trump anymore. I think we need to start thinking about the people that are... Listen, the fact that somebody...

I actually know who, but I don't want to talk about it because it's information that was shared with me discreetly. But somebody decided to launch a crypto coin with Trump's brand weeks before the presidential election. And Trump allowed that to happen. That is a really big deal. That right there alone shows you how much influence there

Either it either shows you how much influence other people in his inner circle have over him, or it shows you how little he really cares about the minutia of all these things right now. Right. Or he sees the potential of more fortunes coming to him. And it's like, yeah, I'll put my name on that. Whatever. No, I don't think so. Because the monetary, if he knew, if he knew how bad that was for his brand, I don't think he'd do it. But he said, Oh, you, you can like,

he saw that djt stock makes up the bulk of his now worth right yeah but the monetary value that coin was never going to grow to that extent i i don't think i i don't believe that was it i i believe it was he's i don't think he knew i don't think he knew and i think he was promised by some uh shady characters that you know this thing could be this could be the next gj djt yeah i don't think they were yeah

I don't know. I think there's a lot more leverage in around his inner circle than him himself right now. And I think that will continue as he continues to age. You cannot stop aging guys. Like the fact that he is going to get older and he is going to provide a

more bandwidth to his inner circle to do things, right? And to run with things and to run with relationships, okay? You no longer have to be, have that tight relationship day in and day out with a Trump. You can have a tight relationship day in and day out with the closest five people to him, including his kids. And that I think is as meaningful as,

as anything was the last time he was in office in terms of having a direct connection to him. So that's how I think we need to think about this. And at first I was thinking there's no way that he's going to allow Elon to retain that much exposure and to have a dual king type of relationship. But I believe that his inner circle benefits greatly from,

from doing favors for someone like elon uh in exchange for what they will get back over the next 10 or 20 years right in political favors political power monetary power other

you know, social power by being that close to Elon Musk. What? Political, future political donations. That's right. That's right. That's exactly correct, Jordan. And so I do believe that Elon walks away here way more powerful in this administration than I was anticipating even a month ago, even a few weeks ago, now that I've kind of reoriented my thinking about this. And I think that has to be a big part of how we think about trading and

So yeah, is this looping around to what your number one Trump trade, Trump 2.0 trade is going to be?

Yeah. Yeah, I do. I do. So, so I want to talk about that. I want to talk about my thesis first, because I think, I think the thesis around how you're thinking about it is probably more important than the individual traits. I think everyone watching the show right now is going to have their own number one Trump trade. We're not financial advisors. So don't just mimic our trades, right? We always tell you not to do that. But the, but the overriding thesis is,

The individual or the entity, let me start by this. I think the underlying theme that is the most important theme for a Trump trade is deregulation, period. Deregulation, deregulation. That's it. And that goes across all sorts of industries and companies. It goes across all industries and companies, but...

When I think about who will benefit more from deregulation and a deregulatory, loosey-goosey environment in government, I believe the entity to benefit most from that is the entity that is willing to get most aggressive.

Okay. So whatever entity or person is willing to push the limit, to, to push the line most aggressively the next two years,

is the entity that is most likely to win from this deregulatory environment. So stop thinking passively about what companies are just passively going to benefit from this deregulatory environment and start thinking more actively which companies, which CEOs are willing to push and take advantage of the deregulatory environment more so than any other company, more so than any other CEO.

And it comes back to two. And I've been debating all morning. There are two that pop in my head. Elon at Tesla and Vlad at Robinhood. How did you, you have my, you have mine. Yeah. Right. Who's going to be more aggressive? Did you see what Vlad did this morning? Did you see what he did this morning? What did he do this morning?

I know that we have index options and I believe some sort of crypto futures now. I'm going to read you a text that I received this morning from one of my close friends who is by all means a Wall Street insider and understands the space really well.

hood acquisition of trade PMR is sneaky big moves them into wealth management 40 billion dollar custodian that serves 350 advisors makes them the platform for advisors and then he goes on to say cheap acquisition price for what they're getting and then he goes on to say

Yeah, this opens them up to being a tamp and platform for all advisors. Invest net but modern. Bullish for wealth tech in general. This was a big move by Robinhood this morning. Huge move.

opens them up to a massive, massive, massive custodial wealth management market. I've been thinking about this for like months. Is Robinhood going to get in this space?

Yep. And they're in. They're in. They're in now. Watch out. Watch out, big boys. Watch out, Morgan Stanley. Watch out, Goldman Sachs. Watch out, Wall Street. Robin Hood is coming for everyone. Everyone. Merrill Lynch, all of y'all. The game has started for Robin Hood. They are thinking big. They know they have a window right now, and they are going to move fast on it.

So just looking at my little picks of, you know, stockbrokers, Schwab is down 1% today. Morgan Stanley unchanged. Robinhood up 2%. Bank of America down about a half percent. So whether or not this news moved those stocks or just the momentum behind hood, I hadn't even heard this news. And hood is, is my go-to pick for who's going to be the winner.

of actually just buying Bitcoin directly of this kind of new wave of crypto excitement.

Are you not following Ahmed on Twitter? How do you not hear this news? He was on it the second it came out. I'm following him. I just was writing an intro to the show using Ahmed's post last night recapping the stock market. We're buds. I've been on his show. You've been on his show. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So it is big. It's really big. Now, the question is, and by the way, yes, Coinbase is also meeting with the administration today.

Coinbase is an aggressive company too, kind of. They are. And I would put them high on my list. I'd put them very high on my list. I was just trying to think, would I rather be in Coinbase or Robinhood? And really, both of them are stocks that I like. Robinhood is...

I just feel like Robinhood's making bigger moves and trying to have, and I believe Vlad's actually said this, he's trying to be involved in every financial transaction you make.

From credit cards to your brokerage to your retirement to your everyday spending. They just want to be a part of your financial, like the thing you go to. And I feel like the old companies are going to have these legacy clients. But as we talk about the move from old people, boomers to millennials, Gen Z and beyond, boomers.

They're not going to be as interested in going into a branch and having a sit down with their financial advisor. They're going to be on the app that they've had on their phone since they were 17. Right? Yeah. Yeah. Um, you know, we talked about this. We've been talking to us a long time, Dave. Uh, it, the, the perfect storm is setting up for Robin hood. And, uh,

but can he be, is he, is he less or more aggressive? Is Robin hood less or more aggressive than Tesla here? It is Elon. I mean, it's, it's a hard Tesla. Tesla will continue to be my biggest holding. I have not amped Robin hood up to being, you know, in the same percentage of allocation, but, um, I, I want to get your guy's opinion though. Like Jordan, you saw the news this week that the administration is, uh,

going to try to provide a national framework for autonomy autonomous cars which blaze the groundwork for robo taxi in the next couple of years do you know I I know that states currently have a lot of control right over what is allowed and not allowed do you think that if

One, let's talk about the perception play because that's what's always what's most important early on as an investor. And two, let's talk about the reality. So one, I have strong feelings, strong feelings on the perception play here that I want to talk about. But the reality of it, do you think that this administration could actually like

provide a framework that would make a difference and accelerate autonomous cars on a national level or maybe not on every state, but how would that work? Yeah, I don't even know how that would work regulatory wise. That's not my expertise. So I, I'm with you. It's a, it's a perception thing and, and, and it's an influence thing. So could that national perception, could the, you know, could this,

Could the national government push state governments to then open things up? And could you see large states allow this because there's a big federal push? The federal push. I don't know how they construct that, but it seems like it's becoming...

Maybe somewhat of a priority issue for them. And if the case, it's going to be something that they're going to speak about. We'll see that maybe lined up in like a first hundred day plan, potentially. I don't know if it would make a hundred day plan.

But if it does, watch out for Tesla because the perception play for Tesla here is huge if they start talking about that more. All we got was a couple tweets, right? Like an insider leak about that. So it hasn't been confirmed. I mean, it makes perfect sense that that would be the push with what Elon's doing. It just seems like the stars line up too well.

Yeah, I like the risk reward in the short term. Here's the thing, guys. I do like the risk reward in the short term of us seeing more information being leaked and then publicly disclosed by this administration that would be perceived as a positive to Tesla because of Elon's new relationship there and the people who he has the ear of

Even if it's not Trump himself. Okay. I do believe that there is,

We are more likely to see positive news than negative news as it relates to people's perception of whether Tesla will benefit or be harmed by this administration over the next couple of years. And because of that, I had to increase my Tesla position this morning. Now, I could reverse that at any moment in time, but I did increase my Tesla position this morning.

It's a levered position already. I increased the leverage, not to the extent that I've been talking about for the past year for the big optimist trade. Although there is an optimist element to why I did that. And it was, we can talk about this later, the Brett Adcock figure AI video that was released. I was waiting. I knew that video was coming out. I was waiting for him to put it out. Not that I thought that was going to be the video.

But I knew that this video released by Figure AI would be the video to set a fire under the butt of Elon Musk.

To counter this video with their own either event or video. I don't know what it's going to be. But after seeing this this morning, I know that Elon and the team at Optimist are going to have to plan their counter to this.

And speaking of Amit again, he summarized some tweets from Elon that Elon made while playing video games all about Optimus is going to be next level. Humanoid robots usher in a new age of abundance. Optimus will likely cost $20,000 to $30,000 at scale. It will cost less to make Optimus in a car. So he's out there putting the message out there.

that Optimus is coming, Optimus is real. And we saw yesterday, I sent you the video, right? Kim Kardashian was interacting with an Optimus to her millions of followers on, I believe it was Instagram that she posted it.

um I feel that was this is interesting because I wonder if Brett's decision to release this video this morning because you know he he's had he's been sitting on this video ready to go but he was waiting I wonder if he saw the Kim I know we know he saw it yesterday and he was like ah I want to get all right fine it's time for me to release something let's be honest what he released this morning was

way more interesting than the kim kardashian video which was basically just a continuation of what we saw weeks ago at the tesla event now i know some people in the comments because i retweeted brett's video this morning we're talking about oh can a robotic arm we talked about this day before the show can a robotic arm do that stuff guys you are completely missing

You want a robotic arm to do what you saw in that video? You can probably get a robotic arm. I know you can to do that same thing. You know what you have to do to get that robotic arm? It has to be custom tooled for that very specific factory, for that very specific use case. And every single time that the sheet metal changes or you get a new...

Like that has to change as well. Yeah, the goal here is that you can place one of these or several of these humanoid robots in a place that was designed to be worked by humans without having to go through an expensive retooling or design for a specific robotic arm. You can just plug and play. You take these robots and you assign them to this task.

Exactly. Exactly. And you could literally have downtime. You don't have the overhead. You just, you just put them in place. You could, you could have them at simultaneously deployed at tens of thousands of manufacturing facilities, warehousing facilities, logistics plants all around the world, doing slightly different functions and slightly different environments from one piece of

of machinery that's identical. And then when that happens, just train it to do something else tomorrow.

Guys, it is the biggest game changer we've ever seen. Again, we talked about this. It's a third or more of global GDP that is set to be reworked in perpetuity forever and redefine every economy on earth. Are you still waiting for something with Optimus being

being used in the real world before you place your big, big trade? Dave, of course. This video isn't enough of it blowing kisses to Kim Kardashian? No, no, no, no. Of course, because listen, what Elon does cast a shadow on capital markets that is

a thousand or 5,000 or 10,000 X larger than what any privately held company can do. Even though all the nerds like us watch everything that people like Apptronic or figure AI or any of the other big bot firms put out, but no, the whole world watches what Elon puts out and every press, the global press covers it. Right. So it casts a bigger shadow of,

but again yeah i think what actually moves the if if you're actually going to see people start to take it seriously and price the possibility of these robots into the tesla stock you're going to need to see something beyond

Optimist being a bartender or giving blowing kisses or doing whatever. You're going to need to see the thing on the side of a production line. Yeah, on the production line at Tesla. At Tesla. At a Tesla gigafactory or whatever, some Tesla factory, them actually participating in the assembly of XYZ car. I think that would blow people's minds.

What do you think the chances of an optimist attending the inauguration this year would be? Oh, it was like 80%, 90%. Is it really? Is that in the betting markets already? I still don't think so.

That is what like those sort of events for optimists. It's awesome. By the way, the more we can get these visibility, that's not showing that it's actually useful and that companies are going to be able to put them into production at scale and use them for whatever, whatever they're using them for.

It's cumulative and it's genius because the more that you just get optimists out there, when you're ready to show something really useful, the world is already aware of optimists. They know optimists. The conversation has already started and you're not having to educate just the public that, hey, this is a robot that does things. You're like, oh, the thing that you've been watching, look what it can do now. Now it's actually working on it.

on a production line. Now it's actually taking boxes off of a truck. Now it's actually doing this and that. And oh my gosh,

wow, how do we factor that in to evaluate? How does this change the world? And by the way, there are sell-side reports that are starting to come out from numerous firms. Morgan Stanley, we had one from Goldman earlier this year. I just read another one this morning that some of these are 40, 50, 60 pages long talking about...

the humanoid future and how it is going to impact every single industry on earth it's wild the stuff i'm starting to see capital markets are just starting to wake up to this stuff i feel it coming it's a tidal wave that's about to hit wall street

I don't know if it's three months, six months, nine months or 12 months, but I really feel that it's months, not years before capital markets are fully awake to what's happening here and have to reevaluate. We've already seen some evaluation of Tesla about what this means. So a company like Tesla, but not all the firms are on board yet. Not everyone's listening yet. It's coming. There's no stopping it, guys.

Timing it's hard, but it's right there. We're so close. My dad works in B2B marketing. He came by my school for career day and said he was a big ROAS man. Then he told everyone how much he loved calculating his return on ad spend.

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This episode is brought to you by Nerds Gummy Clusters, the sweet treat that always elevates the vibe. With a sweet gummy surrounded with tangy, crunchy Nerds, every bite of Nerds Gummy Clusters brings you a whole new world of flavor. Whether it's game night, on the way to a concert, or kicking back with your crew, unleash your senses with Nerds Gummy Clusters. So your number one Trump trade is going to be Tesla, but you're not there yet. I think it has to be Tesla, then Robinhood, then...

Um, before I listen, I Robin hood is such a sweet trade here because it's picks and shovels of all this. Right. Well, and for me, I already have, I already have my Tesla allocation. It keeps growing. I don't think I can buy more. It just wouldn't make sense. Um, but Robin hood, I do want to own more. So my number one trade is going to be Robin hood, but my biggest position is still Tesla. Jordan, what are you doing for the Trump 2.0?

Yeah, so I'm in and out of Tesla calls with it. I'm not holding anything super long. When Tesla's red, I buy some calls. And then when it's green, I sell some calls. And that's about it. That's as complicated as it's getting. I would go bigger if I think that there's going to be more on the robotics front. But with how volatile I think, you know, what Trump and Elon are probably not the easiest people to get along with. And then you put those two together,

what could happen. I have no idea. It could go really well, it could go really poorly. So that's why I'm just in and out of calls.

if there is a fallout it could happen over a weekend and it would be catastrophic for Tesla so you do have to be somewhat concerned or at least aware that that's a possibility it's a risk factor of the Tesla trade right now because so much I feel like so much of the Tesla trade is perceptionally tied to his influence over this administration and

the degree to which tesla will be a beneficiary of the deregulatory environment and just favors that are going to be passed around exclusions to tariffs and various things but there will be bumps

on the way to that. There's no doubt. I'm on that road. Well, I think we'll see like when you talk about exclusions to tariffs, I think that Apple will see a jump the day that their exclusion gets announced. So I think, you know, if, if that were to happen, right. I think there's going to be a lot of little things along the way that are news events and newsworthy that will move stocks. But as far as something that you can kind of jump into and hold on,

I like Robin Hood. Guys, this whole degenerate economy trade also, people are viewing this as a degenerate government right now. I'm not saying that. I love it. No, I love that you just said it.

So if people are viewing the government as being, if people are viewing this administration as a degenerate government, then the degenerate trade for investors has to be on, right? And who's the biggest beneficiary of the degenerate economy? I'm going to look back to Robinhood again. Robinhood's adding meme coins, right? Robinhood, Robinhood, Robinhood,

Pulled a bunch of coins away when regulation got more strict. And then as soon as Trump was elected, they're like, ah, screw it. And they put some coins back out there. But not meme-y ones. Solana is huge. Solana benefits from meme coin trading, though. And also...

Prediction markets are moving to Robinhood. We'll see how deep they go into that space. You know what I think is the most underrated? I think...

people are not paying attention to the overnight trading on Robinhood. The volume of overnight trading on Robinhood has to be growing because I'm constantly. And it is. And it's crazy too. That's one of the reasons that I like having my portfolio on Robinhood is because I can actually see my stocks into that chart that includes the overnight trading. And they figured it out.

that you don't need to provide access to every stock for overnight trading. You can have a dozen stocks that people can trade and that satisfies like 90% of the traders on Robinhood. It's genius. It adds a level of stickiness to their platform, a level of engagement to their platform.

I'm not even sure how, if they're charging, I would assume they're charging way different commissions for people that want to transact overnight. I would have to imagine that has to be a better market for them. I don't think there's any commission. There's probably more market maker spread. That's what I mean. I'm sorry. I didn't mean commission. I meant like there's more juice in those trades, I would assume. Yeah. Well, it's a, it's a less liquid market. Yeah. So, yeah.

I was even thinking, I was thinking about this yesterday. At what point is Robin hood going to acquire one of the sports betting platforms and be like, we do that too. Like, how has that not happened yet? Is that, yeah. Is that, has anyone else thought about that? How, why, why would, when is Robin hood going to become a sports wagering platform? Do they even need to acquire or could they just have sports futures? Like literally you can make a future out of anything.

There are so many gambling platforms. Robinhood has the distribution of all of the youth, inclusive of all the youthful degenerates and some old degenerates as well. Robinhood would make for a killer gambling app for sports because they already have the people and their money trading on Robinhood. You wouldn't have to leave Robinhood to transfer money to like,

Bet NGM or I mean, obviously they need to acquire a platform, right? They need to acquire a betting platform that has the license, Dave, because you need to have licenses on a state by state basis to be able to provide sports wagering. But Robin Hood can acquire one of those that aren't doing that well. And I think overnight Robin Hood could become one of the biggest in that

entire sector.

I feel like it's going to happen at some point. And if it's ever going to happen, it has to happen in this deregulatory environment of this administration. Yeah. Can you imagine? That'd be amazing. Am I crazy? No, it's, it's basically, he hasn't said that, but Vlad has basically said he wants to touch every financial transaction. And there's a lot of people in the degenerate economy making lots of bets on sports events.

I would say in November of 2024, sports wagering is as institutional of an investment than anything else in the world right now. So why not?

I was just looking at a list of the stocks that we've talked about recently. We talked about Lemonade. It's up 16% today, and I was trying to figure out why. Have we talked about Lemonade? We talked about it fairly recently. The only thing that I saw with Lemonade was that there was an insider purchase of like either a million dollars or a million shares. I don't know.

It is their, they're doing their investor day today. And they put up, somebody is there in person and posted this picture, business grew, operations scaled. That looks about like the kind of chart that Apple gives you when they're telling you how much better one chip is, their new chip is going to be compared to their old chip. Like no, no labels, no scale, but yeah.

Stock's up 16% on that, and business grew, operations scaled. Here's one with a little more numbers on it, but you see that they're at $889 million. I have not kept up with Lemonade enough to have an informed opinion on how they would benefit from this administration, but it actually wouldn't surprise me that they are also...

positioned nicely for a deregulatory environment. So that kind of makes sense to me, but I don't know. Looking at a one-year chart, this really, this goes back to the- Yeah, hey, why not to a five-year chart? You want a five-year chart? Yeah. You see a five-year chart- Five-year chart. It hasn't even done anything yet. I mean-

I want to tease a future episode related to this episode right now. So our good friend, Chase Feiger, who's probably one of the most informed pharma med tech investors in the world. He's a CEO of a company in that space. And I've been on a lot of late night conversations with him recently. He thinks he has...

Nailed the RFK trade. Nailed it. And it's not just one trade. He has...

really big opinions on the RFK. And Chase is like me. When he gets into something, he just goes down a wormhole and he wanted to get my opinion on a bunch of this stuff the other night. And we were going back and forth. I'm like, dude, I got to go to bed, man. It's like two in the morning. He's going on and on and on about all these RFK trades. And here's what we're going to do. If you guys are okay with it,

I want to have him on our RFK trade show. Oh, absolutely. That'd be great. Because I'm telling you, he is in so much deeper on this stuff than we would ever be. Let's just give him five minutes to like... Let's give him an hour. Are you kidding? The trade is Teladoc. I'm out. No, it's not Teladoc. He did not mention Teladoc in that trade. Okay, so Chase, if you're watching, maybe next week...

Oh, well, I'll be in New York. Maybe not next week, but we will do in the next few weeks in RFK number one RFK trade. Because I think we should do that sooner than later. Yeah, I totally agree. We'll get that on. We'll get that on the books.

Okay, so big things happening in the humanoid space. We're not going to, we already had an episode on that. I'm not going to go too much deeper in that right now, but I will share a comment that I made. Well, it's a tweet from this morning and everyone's trying to figure out when is this moment when the tipping point moment for humanoids, when the whole world goes crazy and capital markets just rush towards this space.

And I said, people believe gradually, then all at once. That's not a new thought. Like people always say, people start to believe when you have really big changes in the world, people believe gradually, gradually, gradually, then all at once it hits a tipping point, kind of like large language models. Right.

And then everyone is all in on them. People in the know knew that that was coming. And then there was a chat GPT moment where it was being talked about on every late night talk show. And it was everywhere. Yeah. So, I mean, I think it's when you see public companies, major public companies come out with what they're doing with it. And I think you've seen it a little bit with Tesla, but it's been,

you know, like little sideshow things. But once you see like a major public company, and I don't know which one it's going to be first to actually showcase what they're doing.

I think that's it. Everyone keeps asking me, like, I can predict the moment that the world cares about this and Tesla stock skyrockets. Guys, it's not that easy. I mean, it's just not that easy. I am preparing my mind for this moment for well over a year, and I can't pinpoint it. We're all trying to figure this out together. I think

Like I said, I think the video today that Brett Adcock put out is something that is going to light a fire under the Tesla Optimist team and Elon to one-up that video. Now they have to one-up it. Could that be a month or two or three months down the road or four months? Could it be a live event that they do? I have no idea. But I feel like it does lead me to have more confidence that that moment is going to happen sooner rather than later. So we'll just...

I don't have the answer. We're all in this together. Um, guys, my, uh, my restaurant, uh, one of them, the new one, Milo Butterfingers here in Dallas, uh,

Lynn is leaving town. My business partner, he's going for Thanksgiving. And my head of ops is leaving for a cruise. And we have to have a meeting right now about operations. So I have to go because my day is stacked. So I got to go.

All right. Well, I guess this episode is brought to you by Milo Butterfingers, Chris's new restaurant in Dallas. If you want to see it is awesome. It actually is. If you've ever if you're if you're from Dallas and you've ever been there, you knew you know this place and it's always been this divy. They've put a nice polish on divy, but it's still divy and it's amazing. And the food's good, too.

So food's great. And the atmosphere, we got pool, we got darts. It is fun. Unpaid advertising for your, for your latest venture. Let me just tell you something guys. When, when SMU, when there's an SMU game and they win this year, dude, our place goes off. I think the next game at home is the Saturday after Thanksgiving and

We play Cal and we'll beat them. And, dude, it's going to be our last regular season game of the year. Yeah, I was there during the SMU homecoming game and it was packed. Yeah. It was fun, man. It was fun. All right, guys. That's going to do it for this one. Make sure you are watching. Give us a thumbs up before you leave. Dave, we have like 28...

thumbs up and like i don't know 1500 lives watch come on guys how can we no we have we have 4 000 people watching us right now across platforms on x and youtube so way more on x than youtube these days thanks elon

All right. So find a like button, find a heart, find something you can smash to let algorithms know how great this is. And that's it. Okay. Call out to my buddies, Bobby and Ben over at the hundreds. I love the Sesame street collab. They did. That is a good one. Some of y'all noticed it. That was sold out before I could get it. Yeah. All right. All right, guys. See.

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