Our Boldest Tesla Trade Ever
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Yeah, might have noticed that the stock market has pretty much been all green since election night. The markets clearly had not fully priced in a Trump win. All kinds of stocks hit all time highs yesterday in a bunch of different sectors, Netflix, Goldman, Salesforce, Hems, Visa, Hilton. And those weren't even Trump trades. The Bitcoin president sent Bitcoin and the whole ecosystem flying. Coinbase, Robinhood, MicroStrategy, all the miners. Of

Of course, all eyes are on Trump's new bestie, Elon Musk, who pretty much gambled everything on a Trump win. And that bet paid out big time. His net worth is up $70 billion. He's obviously the world's richest person. But to put it in perspective, if his post-election gain alone were a person by itself, it would be in the top 20 of richest people in the world.

Tesla up more than 40% in a week and closing in on its all-time high that we saw back in 2021. The Trump trade speculation rampant about fast-tracking autonomy and just the fact that Tesla, which was repugnantly

repeatedly snubbed by the Biden administration, will now have a direct line to the White House. But if a 40% jump in Tesla's stock sounds like it has to be too late to get in that you missed out, wait until you hear what we've uncovered. This could just be the beginning. In reality, this could be before the beginning even begins for Tesla. Today on Dumb Money, our boldest trade in Tesla ever. This is Dumb Money Live. ♪

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Hey there, Dave here along with Chris and Jordan. We are Dumb Money. Welcome to Dumb Money Live. Everybody, take a second, make markets green again by smashing the like button. Chris Jordan, I've seen a lot of people on financial Twitter who became millionaires for the first time this past week.

I want to congratulate any and all of our viewers who hit that milestone. Good job, everyone. Without even counting a single Trump trade, my everyday stock portfolio was up 20% in a week. My crypto portfolio is up 30%. Chris, you and I talked a little yesterday about Tesla and how much higher it could go and whether you finally put that massive trade in, which, by the way, you still have not done, right?

Correct. Well, I did accidentally put one in yesterday. You're the worst. We're going to have to hear about how bad you are at using the Schwab trading app. But

You are planning on going big. You figured out exactly how and when you're going to do it. We're going to talk all about that. You did have that Trump hedge in place with Tesla puts, and then you bought some Tesla calls to play the move. How did it all work out for you in the end? Yeah, I got a lot of flack for that. People didn't really understand what I was doing or the trade. They thought I was predicting like a Kamala win, which I certainly wasn't. If you recall from our last episode, we had determined that it was roughly a 50-50 shot at either of those

candidates winning. We're trying to figure out trades that would result in a better than 2x return, being that either side was like 50-50 as far as we could tell. So being that my entire portfolio is long and fully levered, I decided to buy $75,000 of Tesla puts the day of the election.

thinking that in the event that Trump lost, it would result in a probably 3 to 5x return on that investment. So for me, it was a 50-50 shot at 3 to 5x on an investment that was counter to the majority of my portfolio. So it was essentially a hedge fund

trade on my portfolio. That got wiped out. When the market opened the next day, you basically sold them. For like $200, right? So I lost $74,800. That loss was about 5% of what I gained that day. So it was one of the best trading days of the year for me. The next day was one of the second best trading days of the year. So it's been an insane few days, guys. This has to be the best four or five-day period

of the year for my portfolio outside a couple of those social arbitraids that we made earlier this year and this summer. Well, I guess for the market, this has been moves that we haven't seen since lockdown and Wall Street bets days, right? Yeah, this is nuts. I love it, man. I love it so much. You know why I love it? Because just the freaking energy of retail traders right now is on fire. And unlike last time around, which is the pandemic,

there at least is some level of rationality around the stocks that people are trading. At least there's some real thesis here that is durable. Now, we can agree or disagree on the extent to which some of these names are overstretched, overhyped. But, you know, Palantir, what a trade. I mean, Palantir tried Tesla. So here's what I did on Tesla. I was like,

I'm going to talk about the big one because I finally have a firm strategy, a timing strategy that I want to reveal because people have been asking me for nine months. I have Alpha on Tesla. I want to share with the world today. Really important Alpha. Information that I think very few people in the world have on Tesla right now that I'm going to share with everyone right now in this episode. I did...

go long Tesla the morning of the election. I went long with equity and I went long with call options. So I put on a fairly aggressive Tesla trade, nowhere nearly as aggressive as the one I'm prepared to put on shortly. But this was not election day. This was election results day, right? Election results day. And that trade has been just absolutely insane. I feel like I've

I don't know, 4X that trade and it was a big one. So I still have some Tesla calls left over from that trade. But man, what a four-day period. The Tesla trade. And here's the alpha I have. As you know,

My entire life has been humanoid robots the past 18 months. It's all I think about. It's all I talk about. It's probably consumed maybe 50% of all the research I've done over the past year has been in the humanoid space. I'm deeply engaged with two of the top humanoid companies privately in the world being Figure AI and Atronic. Two companies will be two of the biggest winners in this space, along with Tesla.

And I've been preparing to make the biggest trade of my lifetime in the public equity markets in Tesla for quite some time now. So when do I make the trade and what did I find out recently? I've recently come to learn that Tesla Optimus bots are doing useful work on the Tesla manufacturing line right now.

You've seen this. Not me. They're actually working in production. I have received information from multiple sources that Tesla has their bots on the production line doing work autonomously. And does this precision work? What are we talking? I do not know. All I know is that it's supposedly impressive. That is the news that I have been waiting to hear. I have also seen...

what my own eyes, bots outside of Tesla, up close, doing very similar things that I cannot speak about. Yeah. Bots that you have a closer relationship with Optimus. I have seen humanoid robots in the past month doing things that I thought was still a year away.

So I won't say whose bots they were or what exactly I saw because I'm not permitted to do so. I recently learned through multiple sources that they are. So that is a really big deal. I don't think people understand how big of a deal that is. What that tells me is that the chat GPT moment for embodied AI, in this case humanoids,

is months away, not years away. It could be a month away. It could be six months away. I think at the most, it's probably nine months away. I think the chat GPT moment for Embodied AI will come through one or more video demonstrations that will be released by either Tesla, Figure AI, or Aptronic in Austin.

I don't know which company will release video footage first that will turn the world upside down. It's kind of a race between all three of those humanoids, and they all are gaining capabilities at a very rapid pace. The only one that is available in the public stock market is Tesla. What we need to see are bots working in unison with each other, doing productive work repetitively and autonomously.

I think once we see that, we are going to see the biggest pull forward in revenue projections that we've ever seen from capital markets and Wall Street. I think there's only one publicly traded beneficiary and it's Tesla. So it doesn't matter who puts this information out first. Tesla is the only way for any retail trader to trade this. Here's my strategy.

I'm going to keep a close eye on every hit of a possible event, news release or video coming out of Tesla and those other two companies. And I'm going to get mentally prepared to place what would be the biggest trade of my life. We're talking about a massive amount of out of the money options that are probably going to be weekly or monthly calls. I would say that weeks out from whenever this event is.

Because you need to allow for some amount of time for the market to absorb the information and interpret that into a trade. But I do think it's all about having a prepared mind. We talked about this so much over the past few years. It's all about having a prepared mind. You have to be ready for it. You have to know exactly what type of trade size you're prepared to put on.

so that you're mentally prepared for me? Is it 10,000? Is it 100,000? Is it a million? Is it 5 million? Like, what is the amount of money that you're willing to lose? Let me just say this right now. We are not financial advisors. This is my trade. This is for me, not for you guys. This is not me telling the world, go do this trade. I know everybody wants to know

how I'm thinking about this trade. And I'm telling you, because everyone keeps asking, this is my trade. This is my money that I'm putting at risk. And I have extreme level of risk tolerance probably is very different from anyone watching the show. So your portfolio, you've already said is like 100% margin. How are you going to find new money to put into Tesla? What are you selling?

I'll sell a little bit of everything. I don't care. I'll just shave off of everything and then go hard on Tesla. And because of this, I need to make sure that my account isn't 100 percent margin. Right. I'll just make sure my account is like 90 percent, 80 percent, because this is a levered options bet. Right. So it's not like I'm putting 50 percent of my portfolio in a levered options bet that will zero out in a matter of days.

The market doesn't react appropriately. There's still market risk. The market could crash the day after I put on this trade. Elon could come out and say something ridiculously stupid or something could happen that is well outside of our ability to predict.

So there's risk in every trade, and certainly there's risk in this one since it will be an out-of-the-money call options trade. But I've been thinking about this trade for over a year. It's now getting very close. It could be weeks to months away. And I know what I'm looking for to place a trade. I'm looking for an event. I'm looking for a video. Now that I know that the bots are doing something that is probably very close to what we need to see,

to have our chat GPT in a moment and embodied AI. Now it's just a question of what point do one of these CEOs want to time the release of that

footage right so question from the audience mike wants to know why not go long is it because the stock's too volatile in the meantime you just want to benefit from the information asymmetry once you know they're about to reveal why are you waiting until you see the video three week or a report of tesla selling less cars in the u.s or something related to autonomy i i am trading

The capital markets finally waking up to the fact that the humanoid sector is potentially half of global GDP. This sector has potential to bring Tesla's optimist division to a $10 trillion division over the next six years, right? That's what I'm trading. And the market is not going to wake up to that until they see that Tesla is actually making robots that can

Do the work of humans at human speed. When the world sees this, they're going to turn upside down. This is the chat GPT moment. Do you remember when you actually use chat GPT for the first time? What that was like? Yeah. In a revolutionary thing that everybody was very excited about. Everybody was talking about it within a couple of weeks.

It went from nobody having heard of the ability to do anything like ChatGPT to people just using it to write emails, ask questions, and replace Google. I have seen robots doing magical things in the past month. And I have heard that people have seen robots at Tesla doing very similar magical things.

Yeah, but that's the thing. We've kind of already seen videos of magical things, but not at scale and not in a practical real world. We've seen them sorting things, walking around, but we haven't seen them actually doing something that is useful to humans. I don't think anyone's seen what I've seen, and I don't think anyone's seen what I heard is happening at Tesla. If the information I'm getting is correct, it's just a matter of time before it becomes public.

If Tesla was where it was a week and a half ago, it would be safer to put on a very large bet just in anticipation that this information would reveal itself over the coming months. So let's say this video comes out.

And to size the opportunity here, we're not talking about robots in the home. Even Elon's most aggressive prediction for that is like a decade. But we're talking about revolutionary manufacturing, logistics, you know, that sort of thing. You've gone into this before, but talk about the market size for this initial phase of

If we see a robot doing something useful. Yeah. So I put out a 15 tweet thread on my Twitter account at Chris Camillo that goes over the economics back in January. I still stand by those economics, which is Tesla by 2030.

With 1.5 million bots out in the world, commercial bots being leased, roughly 100K a year. Once you add in the cost metrics of those bots, you extract net revenue from those bots, apply an ADPE, which I think is highly conservative for the optimist division when you consider that

that the TAM for that market is 50% of global GDP. Some people say the TAM for that market is actually over 100% of GDP. The concept of infinite labor will expand global GDP so much that current global GDP is actually less than the size of physical robot labor 10 to 20 years from now. So keep that in mind. If you apply that ADPE concept

It brings you to roughly a $10 trillion valuation by the end of 2030 for just Tesla's optimist vision. I did see a tweet this morning. I haven't validated that it's real, but it comes from an account that seems fairly reliable. It was that Morgan Stanley put out

some information on the humanoid market and what that would mean for Tesla's optimist division. I think it's ridiculously conservative, but they are saying, according to this analysis that Morgan Stanley did,

It says the implied NPV, the per share value of the Optimus division of Tesla would be $485 a share. So they're equating for $485 a share at Tesla just for Optimus. That's 2040. That seems like an insanely conservative number to me. By 2040, I'm looking at well over $4,000 to $6,000 a share for Optimus.

Tesla just based on Optimus. I know that sounds, I'm not willing to throw out numbers like that. Have I ever thrown out numbers like that in the 20 years that you've known me? Never. I am not. It's all about that pull forward because initially there will be manufacturing constraints, even though Tesla is probably the best at optimizing manufacturing. That's going to be the funnel that this has to go through.

Because there's going to be unlimited demand and it comes down to how many can Tesla, how many can the competitors crank out? I was on a phone call yesterday with someone I have a lot of respect for in this space. I threw out the fact that I thought we would have at minimum a 10 year supply demand glut where the demand would far exceed the supply for commercial humanoid bots. This person thought I was insane and thought this

This supply-demand glut would last for many decades. He's like, I don't see it going away in our lifetime. The thesis around that is interesting because when you start to think about infinite physical human labor through bots, the expansion of

of enterprise would be large and vast in terms of what we can build, what we can do. The industries that would be born that would never exist otherwise, the concept of infinite physical bot labor

would create a demand funnel larger than we could imagine. It essentially is an infinite demand for physical bots. Now, I know that's something hard to wrap your head around. What did Elon say recently? How many bots he thought would be in existence by 2040? 40, I'm not sure, but he's predicting that bots will outnumber humans. No, he'd put out 10 billion humanoid robots by 2040, is what he's saying. 10 billion robots.

by 2040. It's one of the only ridiculous statements he's made that I think has some validity to it. Now, will we get 10 billion? Probably not. Could we have a billion? I think so. Could it be 10 billion in time? It could. I don't buy anything that Elon says. I'm highly skeptical on everything that comes out of his mouth. This is the only area where I see eye to eye with Elon.

And I think that's still an aggressive number. $10 billion by 2040 feels very aggressive to me. Could we get to a billion? I think it's definitely possible. And if you do the math on a billion bots, it's insane. That would be across all bot brands, right? Of course. It's the worst thing in the world. When you start running the numbers on this, Wall Street wasn't even acknowledging that the sector existed

10 months ago. Now we have that one report by Goldman, but that report came out of Goldman China. And it was a fairly intensive humanoid white paper that they constructed around supply chain of the humanoid sector. But it was all China. It was the Goldman China, like US based sell side analyst and buy side funds. Because I talk to these people all the time.

They still think this is like a fantasy. They think it's Star Trek. They're about to wake up to this. This Morgan Stanley report, assuming it's real, this is the first of hundreds that we're going to see over the next 18 months. If you haven't seen these bots doing the type of work that I've seen them do up close and personal from feet away, you just don't believe it. I almost don't care how many videos you watch.

bots doing things because it just seems orchestrated. You just think they're being teleoperated. But when you see them up close and you look around, you're like, wait, there has to be someone teleoperating this thing. And the second you realize that there isn't, it is just this magical moment. Like, how the hell are they doing what I'm seeing them do? So again, you could believe me or not believe me.

I saw it with my own eyes. I've had numerous sources now that are saying they've seen it with their own eyes. The world's about to wake up to this. I'm curious if he does this through a live event or a tape, if it's Elon. Live events. They've released many taped things of the robots doing things in the past. Do you know what the dream setup would be, Dave? The dream setup.

is if Tesla announces a live robot event, forget about the stupid car stuff that they did a month ago. If they were to announce a live event to demonstrate optimists, that would be the dream. Actual event that you could structure those options around, right? Like you have a date

In the future, we know what's going to happen. Other people will kind of be skeptical. Do you think that what you see in that event is going to be enough? Do you think if it's a live event, they're going to have to have some parameters around where it is and where viewers are and how it works? No, I think they are far enough from what I've heard that they will be able to melt your mind with what you're going to see. And yeah,

I think we're months away now. We're months away. I'm confident that we are months away. So we have to get prepared for this trade. Prior to the trade happening, I have to ensure my account on the upside with Tesla. And that's what I'm doing now with these Tesla call-outs in the Tesla position now. It's not as big as I want it to be. And we've had someone ask, what did you do with those calls that you ended up with?

Are you still in them? We didn't talk about what happened last night. Yeah, this is the tweet that you put out. Rough night for me. So I had a hundred call options on Tesla that I exited. I thought I exited yesterday and I simply wanted to trade up

the strike price on those options. I wanted to trade them up for a cheaper strike price that was closer to where Tesla was now trading. It was a massive gain. I want to take some money off the table and de-risk myself. That's what I wanted to do yesterday. I was so busy. I was in so many meetings that I somehow fat fingered the trade. And instead of de-risking myself, I increased my risk

Nearly 4X. I bought, and I didn't realize this until late last night. I woke up at four in the morning and saw that Tesla was down big. I was so worried for you. You could have lost a million bucks overnight. I could have lost a million and a half this morning easily. And...

Well, first of all, I was kind of excited late night because late night Tesla was actually up in the overnight hours, 10 bucks. I was like, oh, I might end up making a quarter million dollars in this mistake. And until this dropped, I woke up like an hour and a half before the market opened and I couldn't go back to sleep. I told myself, just don't look at the phone. Go back to sleep. You can't do anything about it until the market opens.

The option market is not going to be liquid in the first five minutes of market open, and you can't do anything about that. So...

Just go to bed until 10 minutes after the market opens. I was mentally prepared to take a half million dollar hit. Tesla was on one of the biggest runs it's ever been on over a short period. There's probably some degree of short squeeze that happened over the past few days and it needed a breather. I was like, this is the morning for the breather. I was like, out of all the morning, the morning that I fat fingered a call option mistake.

So I was prepared to take the hit. And when I saw that it was only down like seven bucks, I got that trade in so bad. It cost me about 150. I don't know how you haven't switched your primary trading account to Robinhood yet. I finally did it. And I'm so happy because I opened Robinhood just to check on stock prices. It's so cool to be able to actually see my portfolio in there. I just, they're giving you 2% of the entire amount you transfer in.

You missed it. I worked to wait for their next promo. Yeah. I, I, I can't speak about it, but I worked a deal and I figured it out and I worked a deal. I'm staying with Schwab for now. So even if it costs you a million dollars because you don't know how to use their options trading platform, I just, you know what the problem is, Dave, I'm losing my vision and I can't, you see my texts to you guys. Like how often do I send a text that is even readable these days?

The autocorrect does not work for you. Your spelling is horrendous and usually it's nonsense words. Yeah. You need to bump up the font on your phone to that old person font where it's like only four words fit on the screen at a time. Can I do that with the stock trading apps? You can do it with anything. Can I carry around an iPad with you everywhere you go? At least an iPad mini. Those are like the perfect size because you can't carry it around

I had a meeting with a guy yesterday. What reading glass do you have? I was like 1.0. He goes, go down to 0.75. He goes, you can retrain your eyes to see again. I was like, what? He said, yeah, I did it. My wife's doing it right now. I got to research this to see if this is junk science or real. He claims that kind of like when you have a peanut allergy or some allergy, you just slowly train your body to get used to it. He claims...

That if you go lower and lower on your reading glasses, you could retrain your eyes. The problem is that your lens loses plasticity over time. That's why old people have worse vision. Right. But Jordan, do you think there's science that actually. You can compensate, right? Your eyes and your brain can compensate for so long, but it turns out that you're just stressing yourself out and straining.

That's what I was worried about. And by the way, I've solved my vision. You should do the same because you have a hard time seeing up close, but if you wear contacts or glasses that are correcting for up close, you can't see far, right? My ophthalmologist says,

I corrected one eye to be able to read close, the other eye to be able to see far, and it has changed everything because now I can read my phone at a normal distance. The older I get, the more I'm like, but if you correct one eye to be able to read close and then the other to be able to see perfectly far, your brain somehow realizes, okay, yeah, you're blurry to me when I look like this and you're clear like this.

But your brain misches them together and you can totally see everything. Well, hire a robot to see for me. I can read the comments now because I just put my... You do not buy your readers at CVS like normal, do you? Those are like high-style...

The grandpa glass. Is that what's going on? Look at the purple reflection in the lens. I'm pretty sure those are blue blockers. So here's the thing. Someone just said something in the comments and it made me think. I've been complaining to Schwab about their app. I have people on the inside that I get to complain to. They said they added me to a panel to help them with their UI. I swear to you, they said this. So here's what I'm planning on telling them. Tell me if you think I have any chance of making this happen.

I am going to tell them they need to revive the TD app for those of us that want it. And they should have a switch. If you want to have the old TD app in Schwab colors with Schwab branding,

Do you not think that would be the ultimate move for Schwab right now? Oh, absolutely. It's like, why did they just kill off their app completely instead of having some sort of a transition where you could choose which one you like? And then they would probably realize that nobody likes the Schwab app. Then I have to restart the Schwab app 10 times a day because it just stops in the middle of a trade. Even when I had my entire portfolio on Schwab, I still never opened the app. So

Here's the deal. They do that with thinkorswim. That still exists. So why can't the TD Ameritrade old app still exist? Schwab is a little startup that doesn't have the budget to run three different software teams. Schwab just doesn't make enough money.

I think it's a pride thing. I think. I think you're right. I think Keen does not want to admit that they have a bad app UI. They should have just rebranded the TD app as Schwab and gotten rid of the Schwab app. Jordan, all they need to do is have dual apps because some people, some like the Schwab thing. Some people like having to literally restart your app in the middle of a trade because some people know where the buttons are. And if they have bad vision, they know where the buttons are from memory because they've used it for so long.

I'm with you, Chris. They should give a toggle button that lets you go back and forth between the two. Which, by the way, Robinhood has a new version of their app that they're testing with small groups right now. According to their help file, you won't be able to switch back. So I'm hoping that they perfect it before they release it. So I put on a fairly aggressive long trade in Robinhood a few weeks ago, probably a month

And I now think I obviously didn't go in heavy enough. Did you see, go to the app store. Did you see how shy they are? They're the number one finance app in the app store. But that's not even what's impressive, Dave. Just look at apps generally. They cracked into the top 20 or 30 yesterday. If you go to the app store and go to just top free apps, okay?

This is wild. Robinhood yesterday, I thought, was in the top 20. Now, maybe it's not anymore. I think it was in the top 40. I was watching. Dude, that is a big freaking deal for Robinhood. They are 13. All apps. Yeah.

All apps, all free apps. That's insane. No, it's a big deal. You're definitely not heavy enough in Robinhood, but look at the chart. This is the one year chart up 290% just this week up 30%.

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Here's the other thing. We're not going to talk about this too much because I think we might do an episode on Thursday dedicated to Bitcoin. I told you about my Bitcoin futures. Everyone's doing Bitcoin futures. I still haven't figured out how to do Bitcoin futures. I've got to practice this before we do a show on it. But it's not about Bitcoin. It is, but that's not why I'm bringing it up.

If you look at the economics of how much money Coinbase is making from futures on Bitcoin, that is something I want to spend some time on between now and if we do this show on Thursday. Because that, I think, is something that people are completely missing out on. Now, Coinbase is on a huge run, obviously. Look at it over the past week.

But I don't think even within that run, people are understanding how much money they might be making off of this new futures product. Time you have a product like that, the derivative type of product where you're not going to get commoditized on commissions, that is meaty for Coinbase, right? Coinbase is back on my radar just because of that futures product.

Especially if you think about the next two years of trading under this new kind of risk on administration. These are the things you want to think about.

Can we talk about Robinhood a little bit more? Because I'm really enjoying the Robinhood legend platform so much that I've started using it as the charts on the screen here. I really need to talk to someone in charge of development there because for a stream, and I know that they want streamers to use this because they love people screenshotting the app. They need to put in bigger letters or at least the option to toggle on and off

They need to have Robinhood in big letters at the top so that a streamer can know what you're looking at because it's just too hard to see. If anyone knows someone into product development at Robinhood, find me at Dave Hanson on X and hopefully we can get that fixed. Are they paying you to? No, they're not. They paid me when I moved my portfolio over to them, but they offered that to anyone.

Okay, back to Tesla. All right, now that we're back on Tesla and humanoid... We're all over the map on this channel. Okay, I did a podcast with a humanoid podcaster, and I don't know how to say his name. You probably do, Dave. Farzad, is that correct? Farzad?

But yeah, I did watch your podcast the other day. You know, people really enjoyed it. If you just go to YouTube and look for Farzad Chris Camillo, it will come up. It's an hour and 20 minute podcast where I go deep.

on my feelings on the humanoid sector right now. We're not going to talk about this for an hour and a half like I did on that podcast. But if you want to dig deeper, look for that on YouTube. It's also on X. I retweeted it yesterday. It was an enjoyable podcast, but man, was I a marathon talker on that? I felt like every question he asked, I spent 15 minutes just going without breathing answering it.

But I read through a few hundred comments last night and people really seem to enjoy it. I think there was a lot of value there. When people ask me, what should I be doing in the humanoid sector? I'd be like, educating yourself. You need to watch this stuff. You need to start watching some of these humanoid podcasters are bringing you the latest and greatest.

almost on a daily basis now. So you should be spending at least 30 minutes to an hour a week. We should probably jump back into being a little more frequent with our podcast because things change so much so quickly. And I feel like this channel should be your go-to source for everything robotics and AI. Yeah.

At least through an investor's lens, right? Yes. And how you can make money off of it. Now, getting back to Tesla, though, beyond humanoids, what do we think about Elon, his role in the administration, and the degree to which it could actually materially benefit Tesla? There are people out there saying that he could have influence over Tesla

expediting regulatory approval that's the only reason that i bought tesla calls last week and i sold them yesterday so i don't have any just the perception that he potentially can influence uh the regulations of self-driving vehicles so for me it makes perfect sense that tesla would um fly that high a few days after the election because he is so in bed with the

federal government now, can he influence or is there an influence, even if it's not direct,

of him being able to push through a self-driving initiative nationwide. Okay, but Jordan, is that why he's cheating? Whether or not he actually has any material impact on regulatory approvals, the fact that everyone thinks he might is why I think that you are good at cults. That's what I said. It's the visual. It's the appearance that's possible. Is that true or not? I have no idea. But I'll tell you what, it is more likely than it would have been the other way around. So...

Oh, okay. But again, we've discussed this. Often the early trade is more about people's perception of what matters as opposed to what actually matters. Because when you dive a little deeper, you realize that most of the regulatory issues surrounding autonomous vehicles is at the state and city and county level, not necessarily at the

federal level, correct? Yeah, unless there was some sort of federal regulation. Federal interstate highways or something. You could just say that it's allowed. And I'm not saying that will or won't happen because of this, but the perception was there. In Waymo, who seems convinced and tried to convince me, I was neutral because, you know, my Tesla thesis is about robots, not about cars. I don't really care that much one way or the other. But he tried to convince me

That Waymo right now, and I know this is going to piss a lot of people off, he said that Waymo has a meaningful and significant impact

advantage right now over tesla's autonomous car division and he believes that waymo is actually going to be who is this this is a venture investor who aggressively invested in waymo early on i mean he's got a bias right the bias though is that they use lidar in addition to video but he has a lot of

insight into what's happening at the company recently and right now. He spent some time talking about their cost metrics are coming way down. So their cost on a lot of that stuff that was an issue a couple years ago is coming way down. They're obviously reducing the number of LiDAR and cameras that are required on these cars. I did ride in an FSD, the latest version, this weekend, and it was insane.

You plug in the destination on the map and it did everything for you. That's what Patrick tells me all the time. He told me very recently. So the guy that I rode with has been just watching it the entire time and just this latest iteration. I mean, it was flawless. I was really shocked.

Listen, merging and going across traffic and all of these different things. I thought it did a really good job. Now, again, that's a one-off end of one situation, but it was, but once you experience it, it kind of changes your opinion on how good it actually is. And if you watch a bunch of these YouTubers and finance, can we just call it FinEx? Yeah.

But to these FinEx people who post 4K resolution videos of them doing drives to the airport and drives all around town. I hate FinTwit. FinEx is 100x better. Let's never use FinTwit again. FinEx it is. I can't stand that.

FinTwit makes me think of what it was back three years ago, which annoyed the hell out of me with all that is just nothing but meme. I love the meme stuff, but like nothing but the crappy trading. We stopped calling it FinTwit in favor of financial Twitter. We should trademark that. So here's the thing. There is risk involved with Elon and Trump. And I think a lot of people recently, I started reading in the last day or so,

are anticipating when that relationship goes sour. The relationship just got started. It's been saying that all along. At some point, both have such big egos, they're going to have a falling out. You can't have two kings, right? And do we believe that this relationship has legs or is it destined to blow up? And if and when it blows up, could that be perceptionally catastrophic for Tesla?

It's certainly a risk factor. It is a risk factor. You have to acknowledge. You've got to look back in history. And does Donald Trump have any relationships over a certain amount of time that are stable? I doubt it. Jordan, let's think about the nature of this relationship.

Elon has things that he wants out of Trump. Trump has things he wants out of Elon. I think Trump's gotten what he wants out of Elon. Okay, fine. He got campaign funding. He got publicity. I don't know that that's necessarily true. Let me explain. I think what Trump wants as much as being elected

is to have a voice and to be liked and respected. And the fact that Elon owns

the primary media outlet and controls, the primary media outlet has potential to allow that to happen for Trump, to have Trump be heard in a positive way, to have Trump be liked and respected through Elon's voice. I think that might actually be more powerful than Elon even getting him elected. So I think Elon does have the ability to hold that

over Trump's head. It's like unspoken leverage that I think Trump respects deeply. And I do see this relationship as a result of that having legs that would last maybe not forever, Jordan, but I can see this relationship lasting years, not months. And if that's true, wow, that has to be a massive positive for Tesla, right? It has to be.

So what do you think Elon's going to want out of this? Let's talk about the wants on Elon's side. What do you think the asks are going to be that would actually be a positive? The biggest thing is regulatory and regulatory on two ways. One, some sort of nod to the self-driving car thing I talked about earlier. Maybe there's something there. I think the bigger one is that if Trump were able to figure out how to cut

some of the emissions standards for all car manufacturers. Basically car manufacturers have certain target fleet goals for their fuel efficiency standards. Those were set by the federal government. The government doesn't care how you get there, but it's like, okay, your fleet's going to be 15 MPGs. It's not, but that let's just say it is. Well, like GM and Ford can keep pumping out their SUVs as long as on the other side,

They're making electric vehicles to satisfy their overall fleet requirements. If those requirements go away, I think the incentive for traditional car manufacturers to produce EVs drops a ton, right? And so then Tesla has a lot less competition.

That's actually a great perspective on this. I buy that 100%, Jordan. That's such an obvious move for Trump. It's like everybody sells Republican less. We want less regulation. Also, I think the whole story there makes sense. But Jordan, in that case, everyone wins. Elon wins and the auto manufacturers at least believe they're winning as well. They believe they're winning. Right. And if they win or not, I can't make a judgment call on that. But

They can make what they think they want to make instead of being forced to. But they want it because the EV sales have been horrific for those companies. They're great for Tesla, but everybody else makes marginal SUVs or really weird SUVs. Like the GM makes the Hummer that's like 130 grand and weighs like 7,000, but it's something crazy. Doesn't Getty have one? No, but they have great lease deals on them because nobody is buying them.

All right, Getty before the SMU game this Saturday. I know Getty will be at SMU on Saturday. We're not missing that Boston College game. I want to ride in it. That's a great perspective. Now, how about the EV credits? People see that as a positive and a negative for Tesla. An obvious negative because they make less money per car, but a positive because it pushes other automotive manufacturers away from EV and allows Elon to just own the space entirely. Right.

So again, what I care about here is less what actually is good and bad for Tesla and more about how people perceive this to be good or bad. Because in the short run, that's all that actually matters. I'm not concerned a year from now, a year and a half from now, how it actually plays out. I just want to understand how the market thinks it will play out. So as these...

things start to happen under the Trump administration, we can start to trade them. I think that's something to watch out for, though, is just that some sort of pressure on

these fleet EPA requirements for traditional auto manufacturers. As traders, something that we all need to be prepared for, and this is every election cycle, are the information dissemination events coming out of the administration. You want to start to pay attention to all of the appointments. Who are the people that are getting appointed and what are their views? What are their top one or two positions that

that each of these individuals has been rallying around. What I've been doing over the past day is every time I hear about a Trump appointment, I immediately Google that individual. I see what is the thing that that individual has been talking about the past year? What is the most important thing for each of these people, assuming that that thing will now happen?

how will that positively impact various sectors and stocks? That's what every trader should be doing right now. Additionally,

As we start to get closer to these key speeches, these key announcements of what will be the emphasis of this administration, who is on the transition team? What have they said in the past? The transition team has an enormous amount of power. You have to, listen, we're social arbitrators. We trade change. The primary way that we surface change

is through the analysis of conversational data, right? What people say. Like when we analyze tweets, we analyze comments on TikTok. Some of the most important conversational data right now is

There are dozens of people that are in power positions of this new administration. You should be listening to every word that comes out of their mouth. If you are being appointed to an important position in the Trump administration, that is a person we should all be following on X. That is a person that we should be following every single word that comes out of their mouth for the next 60 to 90 days, because anything they say,

Could be a trade. That's what we need to be paying attention to. And I would love to do, guys, a couple episodes over the next couple months where we just break down each of these individuals. What is their area of focus? How could it impact various sectors? There's alpha out there to get. Massive alpha.

We're just kind of looking at this in a spreadsheet that we can share. A lot of great information that if we could get it all in one place so that when someone is elected or appointed, we know what the trades are. Yeah. I mean, that's my area of focus the next few months between now and the actual transition itself. And then, of course, you have speeches that follow that.

After that, the opportunities start to fizzle out. And so this is where all the alpha exists. This is one that you have to put your trades on. It's this magical time when a president gets elected before the president takes office and things start actually moving way slower than everybody wanted. People are going to trade ideas. People are going to trade what they think might happen.

As we know, often very few things actually happen in administration. So this is when you make the money. I have some sources fairly close to this administration. The one thing I'll reveal is that I have heard

They plan to get things done, whatever that means. I've heard that they are not messing around, that they didn't quite know how to make things happen the last time, and that this time they are going crazy.

Full force. Like, they are going to make things happen. At least that's what I'm hearing. You have to take that with a little bit of skepticism because every new administration says we're going to make things happen. This time around, though, with control of the Senate, potentially the House, there is perhaps a greater chance of things happening, which...

As investors, we like it when nothing happens. The thought of something happening, the thought of things being pushed through might give us some volatility that we can play with.

One of the three large humanoid companies, whether it's Tesla, Figure AI or Aptronic, that will be the equivalent of a chat GPT moment for embodied AI and humanoids. I feel that moment's coming in a matter of months. When that happens, I think Wall Street and capital markets are going to pull forward revenue unlike we've ever seen before.

in our lifetime because we're talking about an industry sector that has potential total addressable market of 50% of global GDP. We've never seen anything like that. People still don't believe it yet, but they will. I have seen robots doing magical things in the past few weeks. People have told me they have seen those same things happening on the production line at Tesla. So

Assuming that's all true, we are close. We are close to one of the biggest opportunities in the history of public equity markets. And there's only one company that is publicly traded

that has a humanoid robot and it's Tesla. So we're not financial advisors. We're just telling you how we're thinking about this, the trade that we're preparing to put on. In the interim, I will continue to be long Tesla and buy call options just as insurance in case something else happens at Tesla to move that stock up. I don't want to miss out on it, but I can't put my big trade on just erroneously because it could be three months. It could be four months and the market could take a swing and...

With an out-of-the-money options trade, you could lose it all. So I'm not willing to put that at risk until I have better insight into timing. If Tesla schedules a live event related to its Optimus robot,

You'll have some calls on the other side of that. Yes. Tesla taking a hit today down 6% right now. Even though you have all these coal options, you might be getting a buying opportunity. I like it. I want Tesla to go down. I'm losing money on my Tesla position. I want to lose a lot of money on my Tesla position right now. I want Tesla to go down. I want to lose money on my Tesla position.

Because I will put on a larger Tesla position at a lower price when the real news hits. Because all this autonomous driving stuff, man, I know you Tesla fanboys are excited about it. But let me tell you something. Autonomous cars are nothing compared to what's coming. It is not even 5%.

of the market of humanoid robots, displacing all the world's physical labor over the next 20 to 25 years. And I want to repeat this because that sounds kind of cold. Like to get excited about displacing human labor sounds really cold. But I want to remind everyone that not one time in the history of Earth have we had a new technology that has displaced human labor that hasn't resulted in a larger demand for human labor ever.

in new industry sectors that are born out of that technology. So I firmly believe that while there will be a little bit of pain we're going to have to deal with as a civilization, when we start to displace human labor, we will be in a much better place. There will be more jobs, not less, more jobs for humans, more industry,

more innovation. I don't think anyone's looking to displace human labor for five to 10 years because we have a human labor shortage in the world for physical labor. We need more physical labor. So the majority of these bots the next decade are going to be working with humans, not displacing humans, right? People are just confused by that. This is not a negative. It's only a positive for humans.

So be excited. I'm excited. I cannot wait to see how this unfolds over the next 12 months. We're getting excited.

really close. And as investors, I don't think I will ever see another investment. Maybe I will, but I can't even think of another generational type of opportunity for investors. We always say with change comes opportunity. The bigger the change, the bigger the opportunity, the faster the change, the bigger the opportunity. It doesn't get any bigger than humanoid

taking over the world and it doesn't happen any faster than a company like Tesla with its manufacturing capabilities to start rolling these things out. A billion in 20 years, 10 billion of these humanoids in 20

50 years? My projections show that 1.5 million bots in production being a lease would result in a $10 trillion valuation for Optimus. I have that by the end of 2030.

If you guys have stuck around to the end, it looks like we have almost 6,000 people watching right now across both X and YouTube. Everybody find a like button and just destroy that like button because this is how people find our channel. A lot of you are new maybe because you hear us talking about Tesla and you like Tesla. We talk about stocks. We talk about trading. We talk about ideas and we do it as frequently as we can.

We don't have anything to sell. We have a discord that's absolutely free. If you go to dumbmoney.tv slash discord, you can get an invite to join us there. And we do this as frequently as we can. We want to congratulate all of our new millionaires out there who really hit it big over the last week. Dave, I do think it's time to have a dedicated Bitcoin episode.

There is at least one big thesis that I think is underappreciated right now. I want to discuss them. If we can do it this week, let's do it. This is the time. People are thinking about Bitcoin, but I think they're not fully understanding the real thesis, the real difference maker. So if we can pull that together later this week, guys, we will do a Bitcoin episode on

We'll aim for doing it on Thursday. If for some reason we can't, you should be subscribed to this channel anyway, just so that you never miss anything because we're very erratic with our schedule. We're full-time investors. We just do this when we feel like it. Something to talk about. We don't put a show on just to fill time. We actually need something that we think is useful to you guys. Yeah. We'll see you hopefully Thursday.