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It is one of the great debates of our time, right up there with Coke versus Pepsi, iPhone versus Android, TikTok versus Real. That's right. Today, it's Tesla versus NVIDIA, two stocks on the verge of something even more unbelievable. Over the weekend, Tesla demoed its fully autonomous robo-taxi service for the first time on public streets in Austin, Texas, to a handful of ex-fluencers in what could be considered a watershed moment for autonomous transportation. Over at NVIDIA, they've shown us the future too, unveiling...
Blackwell Ultra and a two-year roadmap for a massive AI compute leap, setting the stage for an even larger scale modeling for AI and robotics. So the question this morning, if you could only invest in one of these companies, which one would it be?
A few years ago, Jordan called Tesla his forever stock, and I think at some point after that, he sold it, and I'm pretty sure he bought it back. Chris has been calling NVIDIA his number one stock until he started calling Robinhood his number one stock, so we're going to have to clear that up. Today on Dumb Money, the one and only stock we're buying more of right now.
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This is Dumb Money Live. Hey there, Dave here along with Chris and Jordan. We are Dumb Money. Welcome to Dumb Money Live. Have to hit the right buttons. Quick reminder, smack the old like button. Help us train the almighty algorithm. It's quick, it's easy, it's free. Chris, Jordan, this should be a fun one today. Tesla, Nvidia, two of my favorite stocks. I think they're stocks that most of our audience likes and follows pretty closely.
But I can tell you for a fact that I'm only adding to my position in one of those two stocks. Me too. I'm adding it in one, not two. So where do you want to start this morning? Well, let me start by the stock I added the most to last week, and it was Tesla.
Why? I mean, it's pretty obvious. We had the robo-taxi rollout this weekend. If you look at the way that rollout was handled, it was pretty obvious that only positivity would circulate on Sunday. You know the players. They invited 20 people from X who give very positive feedback on Tesla's every move. So yeah, that did seem like a fairly obvious move.
play there? Yeah, so I had a pretty massive lever position in Tesla over the weekend. I actually rolled it up yesterday morning and I still had a pretty massive position going into this morning. However, last night,
Last night is when the other side of the story started to bust out, right? Everyone started to critique every flaw in that initial days rollout. Which if you've seen some of these critiques, it's like they're frame by frame watching the videos that were posted by ex-influencers who are
positive on Tesla. And they're like, oh, did you see here where it like tried to turn and then couldn't turn and then had to correct? Isn't that what it's supposed to do? Like if it is going down the wrong path, it corrects itself. I think Dave, some of the critique was fair. Some of the critique was just Tesla hating, but it really doesn't matter because the reality is that there is a
a lot of new negative publicity on Tesla as of last night. So what I did this morning is I exited most of that Tesla levered position. And I think the key here when it comes to Tesla trading the next few weeks, the next few months, you just have to trade the daily information. I think there are going to be lots of ups and lots of downs on Tesla. The good news is if you pay attention,
even a retail trader can actually see that story unfold in real time. And I think there is an opportunity to trade the ups and downs in Tesla as the robo-taxi launch starts to get larger. It's going to have issues. And Dave, the big issue here is that it's almost impossible for a launch like this to go perfect. And every single time one of those robo-taxis messes up,
It's going to be publicized. All the haters are going to jump on the bandwagon. It's going to get a massive number of views across all the social channels. And whether you like it or not, just like this morning in a raging bull market today, Tesla is down $1.
It's going to impact negatively Tesla stock. Is that the only thing going on with Tesla stock? I saw it up this morning and then I last checked and it's down. So I assume it's because of that, but I haven't seen. Is there any other news story breaking that
with the rest of the market up is bringing i have to assume that a lot of the people that are trading tesla saw the same exact thing that i saw and it is unnerving there is going to be volatility uh i think there are going to be more issues with this robo taxi um
expansion throughout Austin. I think probably the biggest risk. Also, I mean, the stock was up 10% yesterday. So coming back down a couple percent, is that the end of the world? Jordan, yes, I would normally agree with you. But look at the market today. Come on, man. This is a day. I mean, yeah. Come on, dude. I guess 10% was way more than, you know, it's
That's a big move for a stock. 10%? I don't care. I don't care. I'm telling you that if you read all of the negative stuff that was published on RoboTaxi last night, it was a massive...
massive amount of critiquing mass. And it was harsh. Okay. There's no way I knew there was no way that was not going to have a negative impact on the stock today. So I exited the majority of that levered position in Tesla. I will hop back into, into Tesla on positive robo taxi momentum. I will get out of it. The
puts the robo taxi launch at risk. And I think the number one risk tack risk factor as it relates to robo taxi is the same issue that we've had for years, which is, uh,
overly optimistic expectations that have been propelled by Elon on how big and how fast this rollout will be. Pretty much everything that Elon has said related to Robotaxi the last decade has been off in terms of timeline. And I think that Tesla investors yet again are
are not seeing this clearly in terms of how long it's going to take to roll this out. Okay, like everything that Tesla is doing in Austin right now makes total sense. You have to have a driver up front. You have to have someone in the front supervising or just being able to pull the trigger if something goes wrong. Obviously, you have to have that. If you didn't do that, it would be insane. They would be called reckless.
And I would imagine, and I don't know for sure, but I would imagine that that's probably a requirement by some regulator who's trying to make sure that they're not completely unregulated.
unmanned, unmonitored at least. Dave, it almost doesn't even matter because when you have a technology like this, you have to spend a lot of time being really careful, right? You have to kind of gate the area that you're in. There's so much work involved in this, okay? And this is not something that's just going to be scaled out nationwide with
tens and tens and tens of thousands and hundreds of thousands of robo taxis anytime soon. And I just don't understand why that expectation exists. And I think a big part of it is Elon has not corrected that expectation. I think there's an equivalently wrong expectation that he's setting on, on, on optimists. Okay. I think the expectation he's setting on optimists is completely wrong. I've been trying to like scream, scream,
from the rooftops for months now to not get that expectation up there where Elon setting it for optimists. But again, this is why I would prefer to trade around Tesla as opposed to just being all in every day, every week. Um,
It's not the stock I'm consistently buying more of. It's a stock I'm trading around. So far, I've done a really good job of it recently. And I'll try to continue to do that. Yeah. And I haven't been trading it, but it is the largest holding in my portfolio. So I feel like trying to juice it a little bit with some options just...
It's too much exposure to Tesla for me. Dave, so I have a core holding of Tesla that I can live with no matter what happens. And then I'm just leveraging in and leveraging out with options on a weekly basis, daily basis, depending on the news flow because news flow is so critically important to this stock. Let me ask you a question, Dave. Does it not make you a little bit nervous or...
of the the amount of tail risk uh being robo taxi being elon's company and if something really bad does happen i mean it i can't even imagine the amount of negative publicity everything is under a magnifying glass right now and so much of this tesla valuation today
is focused on this massive robo-taxi success, this rapid expansion of robo-taxi. I mean, the numbers that Elon is throwing out right now about you being able to make more money off of your Tesla, renting it out as a robo-taxi than you're paying for your Tesla, I think is just irresponsible. We don't quite yet know the economics of how this is all going to unfold. And I think he set expectations so high that,
that if any, if we start to see any cracks or any delays or any meaningful setbacks, does that not make you nervous being that? Oh, it definitely makes me nervous. No, it makes me nervous. And I'm, I'm concentrated in the stock because I believe in it long-term, which is why I'm not playing it daily options because you never know. There's going to be big updates like yesterday. There's going to be big down days like we've seen in the past. Today's today's really nothing, but
Yeah, it's a volatile stock, but I think that it goes up faster than it goes down. I would agree. Well, well, recently, recently and historically.
Well, no, you've got to go back a few years. So not historically. If you were doing this the last few years, you might have lost an incredible amount of opportunity by having money sitting in Tesla. Guys, if I had my money sitting in- I've lost all my opportunity having money sitting in Amazon and Apple. And I think of those as like the blue chip of tech stocks.
Well, same exact thing, right? Like having your money sitting these last few years in Tesla, Amazon, Apple, in some cases is devastating relative to the money that you could have been making in an NVIDIA, right? By going all in on a company like that. So the question is, what do we do now going forward?
forward. For me, I'm a big believer in the ultra long term of Tesla, but that's completely irrelevant as to where I want my money sitting short term. Because every day when we're in a super cycle like this, guys, and I've said this before, I think we're in the largest tech super cycle of our lifetime. It is critically important to make good decisions with your money because it's not just about not losing money. It's about missing out
on massive opportunities by not being in the right AI companies the next 24 months, 36 months, right? Oh, and for me, it all comes down to one company, one AI company above all others that you can buy on the public markets.
Well, you know, I've talked about this a lot the past few weeks, and I really do believe that I found the end of the Internet when it comes to NVIDIA research and commentary and alpha and rumors and supply chain checks. I'm telling you guys, every single piece of data that I'm able to surface related to NVIDIA
just adds to my conviction level and I truly do understand why Nvidia has not moved here there are a few different reasons one just because of it being the mega cap that it is two because of this huge China overhang that still exists on the stock this uncertainty of not knowing how much if any uh
chip capacity China will be able to take on from Nvidia. I think that's actually noise. It's noise right now. It's a distraction. Also, we have Jensen selling some of his Nvidia under his plan, which is like
a nothing. It's like 40 to 50% of all CEOs are on a similar plan to sell their stock. I think it just hits the news wires and then it puts a ceiling on the stock for a little bit. I don't think he's doing anything aggressive. No, he's not doing anything aggressive. There is another, the second largest shareholder that has been selling more, but that guy's worth like 10 billion. And even relative to what he owns, it's a relatively small amount, but it still feels like a lot.
I actually love it because these things are overhangs and you can understand the rationale for why the stock is not moving on a week to week basis. There seems to always be something capping Nvidia, something, right? And it's interesting because behind the scenes,
All of the real information, the real data is actually just compounding and improving day by day, week by week. I'm so excited to put on these levered positions in NVIDIA every week.
because I know, listen, I say things like I know it means I have high conviction, but I don't want you to remember we're not financial advisors and this is just what we're doing. Our risk, my risk tolerance is incredibly high. So please don't take what I'm about to say and then mirror my trade because I can,
almost guarantee you your risk tolerance isn't as high and you should be speaking to a financial advisor and not making decisions based on this, but only use this, this information we're giving as something to start researching on your own. My conviction level is fairly high that
Nvidia, unless again, unless some new information surfaces that I'm not aware of, that Nvidia is just a coiled spring ready to pop at some point. I don't know if it's this week, next week, next month. So in your reading to the very end of the Internet, what are the two or three biggest things you see happening?
for Nvidia that give you such high conviction on it. So Dave, I think the number one concern around Nvidia is still this China issue, meaning that they're, you know, 20% of their demand, like essentially temporarily disappeared. And we don't know if and when it's going to come back, but does that actually matter once you find out that they have replaced that demand entirely? And in fact, they have,
more demand than supply and for the foreseeable future they are able to sell every single chip that they're capable of making not only that but they've raised the price on those chips so it's like none of this actually makes sense because right now Nvidia is just the only constraint on Nvidia
is supply chain, their inability to actually be able to address the demand that they're seeing in the market. Everybody's concerned about Amazon making their own ASIC chips and Google making their own ASIC chips and Meta. There's a story Meta is going to come out and start making its own ASIC chip. Like all these companies are making their version of an AI chip specifically geared towards inference
And everybody's worried about if we move forward five years, do GPUs represent 90% of inference chips or only 40% of inference chips? I don't think it matters because the demand for any type of AI chip is going to be so high that anybody that simply has the allocation of
to produce any of these ships is going to be able to fulfill
the capacity of what those chips can produce, right? So I don't, I think there's unlimited demand right now. Yeah. People are asking the wrong and maybe at some point that changes, but I'm certainly not seeing it guys. And I think it's just a matter of time before the market wakes up and sees this. And by the way, the whole China situation shows,
should Nvidia resolve that? And I don't mean they're going to resolve it by being able to sell their best chips to China. I think we all understand that that's
almost an impossibility at this point. But if the administration comes out, like I assume they probably will at some point in their negotiation and says, Hey, we're going to allow you to purchase these types of chips from NVIDIA in exchange for the rare earths that we need to get from you. That is just gravy on top. That's the cherry on top. That might actually be the moment that NVIDIA takes off. Um,
And it might actually be to our benefit. But talk to me about this, though, that when and if and when the lower end chips are able to be sold to China, doesn't that just take away some capacity for the higher end chip manufacturing that can be sold for higher margins to other places? Not necessarily, Dave, because those chips are based on different types of memory.
Those chips are a completely different supply chain that potentially has different types of availability as opposed to the top tier NVIDIA chips, which by the way are sold out without China.
Okay, sold out without China. That's my point. Again. If they could take all of their manufacturing capacity and make just the highest end chips to sell to the rest of the world that's allowed to have them, wouldn't that potentially be better for NVIDIA than being allowed to sell the lower end stuff to China? Unless they can just sell the lower end stuff for a bigger margin, bigger markup.
and dedicate? Or is it just taking a different part of the factory that can't be used for the high-end stuff? Dave, there's only so much high bandwidth memory. There's only so much that NVIDIA could actually produce at any moment in time. So I don't even think it's really a possibility. I think it might actually work out to their benefit. Regardless...
Another piece of this narrative is sovereign AI. I've been talking about it for a while. I just simply do not see a path
where the sovereign AI train slows down. I just do not see that. I see sovereign AI as something that becomes one of the largest storylines of the next two years. And the interesting part about sovereign AI is when you have governments that are going to start converting all of their services, their military, their intelligence, everything over to an AI infrastructure. And Jordan, I want to get your take on this.
that would be governments move so slow that the CUDA platform that NVIDIA has developed, if you look at the ASIC type approach,
The ASIC type approach is continually getting like outdated. And so like the amount of the ASIC manufacturing cycle is always behind. And from what I understand, it would be almost an impossibility for governments to to
to develop a sovereign AI strategy that sits outside of CUDA for the way that they work in the amount of time that it takes a government to actually proceed with that type of architecture and that type of, uh, uh,
execution on a strategy. So it looks like, and especially with Jensen putting sovereign AI front and center, he's the guy having the meetings with every single government official around the world, right? He knows what he's doing here. And he is going to wrap every government in the world into the CUDA ecosystem, okay? And he knows that once he achieves that, it's like game over.
It's game over at that point, right? And nobody's talking about this, which is crazy to me. It's crazy to me. Like, Jordan, what is your take on this? I've been sharing a lot of the data and the research with you. So I'm assuming you've been doing your own research outside of what I sent you. But am I missing anything here? No, man. I think you're thinking about things in the right way. Yeah.
I'm still just not sure how the sovereign governments will adopt AI because right now it doesn't do any decision making, right? So there's no, you know, I mean, they can be building out infrastructures and things like that to aid employee and like to, to,
for employees to use, but it's not like you can just turn AI loose and have it perform functions yet. Why do you care what it's doing right now? It's not about what it's doing right now. If you're a government,
You are incredibly concerned about falling behind as it relates to intelligence, falling behind as it relates to your defense capabilities, falling behind when you're looking out five, 10 years. Right. And the AI story now is so obvious. It's so obvious where this is all heading.
When you see your competing governments, like we've already started to see, start to make these initial moves to say, hey, we're jumping ahead. We're going to have control over our sovereign compute. We're going to have control over this for the future. We don't want to miss out on allocation. We don't want to miss out on this wave. It's a government issue.
type of FOMO, right? Yeah, it's like an arms race for technology to build up the infrastructure
And you'll decide and figure out what you're going to do with it in the future, but you kind of have to have the infrastructure ready to go. Well, look at China, guys. Look at what China has said. China has come out and said that they were going to lead the world in AI. They're going to lead the world in robotics. They're going to lead the world in embodied AI. They're going to have machines doing everything. They're going to have machines in their military. They're going to have like all of it's not hard to look out 15 years.
and say, if you are still the one government, the one military, the one intelligence firm that's operating on analog, you're screwed. So when you have Jensen taking that meeting with you, you see what China's doing. You see what some of these other bleeding edge countries are doing. Are you really going? I mean, you see, they're all coming out and already saying it. We don't, this is not even debatable. Like the,
already like no one's resisting this it just takes a little while for a government to go from okay gosh we need to do this to we now need to budget for put a team like we need to actually start implementing it it's years right but it's all in front of like windows 95 in the back office of our you know congress we need to we need to upgrade well you know what it is guys it's it's just the internet
The government has pretty advanced computer systems. They've got supercomputers and things like that. They will have AI systems, but what will they... To a certain extent, right now, AI augments human behavior. It doesn't necessarily make decisions for you. I
Again, it doesn't need to necessarily even make decisions for you, which, by the way, it can right now. It can make decisions for you. It can assist in that decision-making. It does it right now. Palantir is doing that right now. It's literally surfacing things. Assist in decision-making, and that's fine. Okay, but...
Who cares? No one's saying it has to be fully autonomous. Assisting decision-making is a game changer. Like, are you kidding me? Like AI for government, AI for intelligence, my God, AI for defense. I mean, how...
How are you going to build a military and defense around fleets of drones and fleets of autonomous equipment without having insane amounts of compute, insane amounts of energy? Look at what New York is doing. New York just announced in the last couple of days that they want to build out their own nuclear for energy. OK, like you need to be thinking about this for the next two decades.
It's so obvious that this is the biggest revolution we've had in our lifetime. And if you just look at history and you look at what happened with computing, you look at what happened with the internet, if you're a government, you know that you need to get ahead of this and you need to control the compute, control the energy, you need to plan for what you might or might not need 10 years from now, and you can't get left out from this.
I will put everything, everything on the sovereign AI thesis. And listen, is there the smallest of chances that countries in the world just be like, ah, we're going to get left out of AI. We're not going to do this. I guess it's theoretically possible. That is a risk I am
absolutely happy to take my money. Now, the only question one needs to ask is, one, how big is Sovereign AI? And two, how much will NVIDIA get of it? I think it's huge. And I think NVIDIA is going to get most of it. So that's my thesis. It's, I think, one of the largest tailwinds for the company outside of inference,
Inference, I think, is something that's been used against NVIDIA because GPUs historically have been more oriented towards training as opposed to inference. And ASIC does do a very good job of inference. I think what people are missing out on here is the actual amount.
of inference that the agentic AI evolution that's happening, that's coming here in the next 12 to 18 months is going to increase demand on inference. So as we all move to agentic AI over the next 12 to 18 months,
If you look at the amount of inference that that demands, it's unreal. It's actually unreal. And we are going to need so much more compute than we have today. Everybody in that world is a winner, I think. I think everybody's a winner. Just trying to pick who's the...
bigger winner. I just don't think people can wrap their heads around how big this is. And for me, the reason I'm not buying more Tesla is I already own probably too much Tesla. And so I need to get my NVIDIA holding up. It's like 6% or 7% of my portfolio now. I want it to be 20%.
Oh, so NVIDIA is yours? I thought yours was Tesla. No, I already have too much Tesla. All right. Love it. Love it. Okay. But I believe very strongly in Tesla for the long term and think that they are, I mean, they're going to be back up in the, you know, top tier.
one or two companies by market cap in the world. But I think that right now, my personal portfolio doesn't have enough Nvidia and it does have enough Tesla.
Jordan, I just want to bury the negative Nancy part of you for one minute. Let's just assume that this peace agreement actually is real and sustains for some degree of time. What are you talking about? You're talking about the Israel-Iran peace agreement? Israel? Yeah, let's assume that the 12-day war.
Yeah, let's assume that that kind of resolves itself to some degree going forward, at least for the short term. And let's also assume that the tariff situation also cuts
kind of resolves itself, meaning it doesn't really get worse. It slowly gets better. Yes, we end up with some degree of tariffs that might be a little bit higher than where they were before. But the global economy is going to have to make some adjustments there. If that is true, Jordan, whether you're adding or not, what is the one stock that you would go in deeper on with that assumption? Because that is my assumption.
Like, what would you go deeper? Is it something outside of Tesla and Nvidia? Oh, well, I'm not buying Tesla at all. And I've been trading in and out of Nvidia. So, yeah, you know, Tesla drops some, I buy it. If it goes up, I sell some. I don't know. I don't need to make these huge bets over the next several decades. I just watch things play out as they do.
Okay, but what do you like the most now if there's an assumption that we're in a stable environment, we're in a stable environment, and we are now officially...
going towards the middle. I just don't know what you mean by stable environment. A stable global geopolitical and economic. No, no, no recession, Jordan. No geopolitical chaos and no recession. So just because there's no recession doesn't mean that things are necessarily stable. It's a hypothetical that Jordan can't wrap his head around because he's too worried about so many things right now.
He can't even wrap his head around the idea of what if there's no recession, no war, there's just rainbows and butterflies in the world. Then, Jordan, which stock would you buy in a rainbow world? I don't do this. I don't put a fifth of my portfolio or...
25 my portfolio into a single stock so i don't know like you're like we're speaking if you had to you have to do it i don't do that that's this is not how i invest so i own nvidia i think it's a great company um i trade around it if it's green i sell a little if it's red i buy some more i i don't know like this is not uh this is not how i roll can we talk about the other stock that i really want to pour more money into and just uh you know
can't find enough money to make it happen. Like I've got rules and the rules don't let me put 25% of my portfolio into a Robin Hood. So you do great at it and I'll do what I do.
It's so boring. I have 7% of my portfolio is Robin Hood, and I would like that number to be higher, too. I basically just want all of... I just want to own a lot of a lot of companies that are just... Well, actually, a lot of a few companies that are my absolute favorites. Dave, I... Jordan, this will freak you out, but...
obviously I got back into margin again. All right. Yes. You know, I was saying, I was saying during the tariff chaos, I was saying, I did too. This is not a place I can find new money is in margin. Obviously I'm in margin again. Okay. Uh, about, I don't know. I'm just, this is just really rough, roughly 20% of my portfolio. Um,
Hold on. Let me see if that's correct. About 15% of my portfolio is in Robinhood. A little less than that is in Amazon. And this is just equity, okay? A little less than that is Nvidia. About half of that is in Tesla.
And then I have other fillers like Micron, Palantir, Supermicro Computer, Arrow Environment. You bought back into Supermicro? Yeah, I did. Just on momentum? Or was there something about... Did they fix their internal accounting issues? Jordan, I just feel...
that I don't know. I can't see. I traded it, by the way. So I bought it somewhere near the lows, but I'm out of it now. I
I don't think that I can say with conviction that they've resolved their accounting issues. I just feel that they are still in the meat of things in this super cycle. What they do with liquid-cooled kind of server, either integrated server infrastructure, they are a primary player in this space. And I feel that I just want to have them as
part of my super AI super cycle portfolio. I have Taiwan semi. I did express some concern there yesterday to you guys. I was reading that the currency headwinds
uh of of Taiwan versus the U.S. dollar present a potential major issue as it relates to their earnings this quarter so I don't have like a huge position but they're always going to be part they're always going to be part of that portfolio um Corsair I still have a decent chunk of Corsair um
Dave, my Apple is really small, man. I am down. I actually recently sold off some more of my Apple. I took some of that tax hit. I just don't see really any reason to own an Apple right now. It's tough. It's a really tough thing. I don't want to own that. When you're like me and Dave...
If you open your portfolio and see no Apple, it just makes you a little sad. You just have to. I can't do that to Steve. I can't do it. I just like the Apple is such a core part. It's such a core memory of why I'm an investor and everything I love about great tech companies and great tech leaders is
I have to see that AAPL when I open up my portfolio. I must see it. And it has to be... And we're holding out hope. We're holding out hope that they're going to have an amazing couple of years. Like this year, we're not too excited about the new iPhone, although it will have a whole new camera structure. It will be a whole new everything. But iPhone 20, the 20th anniversary phone is supposed to be...
remarkably different edge to edge screen. Just like we're holding on hope that they have a foldable model coming out. We'll see. I do not want a foldable phone. I don't see any use in that. I,
i don't either there's really nothing to make you upgrade except for the camera now and really the everything that i've heard that apple is doing other than iphone 20 or double x or whatever we're going to call it uh that the mock-ups i've seen of that look amazing if that's what they actually do but the other products that they're working on other than maybe humanoids at some point
but basically an iPad, HomePod, even with a robotic arm. I just don't know where that fits into my life, and I don't really want it. I'm actually not excited about Apple products roadmap other than I'm going to be in the iPhone ecosystem for the foreseeable future. Sure, no, that's the thing. They've got a stable revenue base. There's nothing wrong with Apple, but just...
Are they post-growth? I don't know. Listen, we all know that Apple needs to do some big things the next few years to get back to growth. I don't know that they'll do it or not, but I don't care. I have owned so little of it at this point. I mean, it's still a big chunk, but of my total portfolio, it's very...
fairly small. Um, it's, I own a similar amount just to give you an idea, Dave of companies like elf and Eli Lilly and Novo. Some of the companies I've owned a lot of in the past, like it's a similar type position to those companies. So I just don't. And by the way, those are companies that I used to own 10 X more than I own today. I just still have some remnant positions in those companies. So I'm considering making a pretty dramatic shift in my, uh,
asset allocation so that I have a little bit less Apple. I'll still have Apple, but maybe a little bit less, maybe a little bit less Tesla, just because I have, when it keeps going up, I have too much of it. So I have to start selling that. But I think that Nvidia and Robinhood are the places where I would like to see their piece of my pie chart get bigger.
So, Dave, what I didn't discuss are my options. And I've been purchasing, as you know, options on NVIDIA almost every week for the past six weeks, six, seven weeks. How have they done, though? Because it's up, but it's up and then flat and then up and then flat. No, no, no. Well, except for a couple weeks, it's been up massively. And then it's started flattening off. But my options position in NVIDIA is...
it increases my NVIDIA exposure by about six X. So if you include my options position, NVIDIA is my largest holding by a factor of three. So I have three X more NVIDIA exposure than any other stock in my portfolio right now. Um, and then Tesla is one that I, again, I,
Day by day, Tesla can be my number one position right there with Nvidia, or it could be my number six or seven, depending on the day. And I know I'm playing with fire and a lot of the Tesla fanboys think that I'm going to get screwed because I'm going to miss out on some massive Tesla run. For the most part, I haven't. I've participated in all of them because I've had my option position on Tesla.
during those runs. And maybe I miss one. I'm willing to live with that. Okay. Because I think Tesla is a stock that if I am in it that heavy all the time, anytime that I have a Tesla options position on that's massive, which has been quite a bit recently, I don't sleep well at night because I think there's going to be some, something Elon's going to say something, which he did. Remember I used to say that Elon's going to say something and it's going to be
be catastrophic? That's exactly what happened. He said something to Trump, you know, and then that fell apart. Now it's robo-taxi.
I would lose sleep. While RoboTaxi is figuring itself out, while it's trying to work out all the edge cases, there's massive risk because expectations are so high. So much of that valuation is not optimist. It's just RoboTaxi, okay? So the entire company is basically valued based on RoboTaxi.
So all it takes is one person with a camera filming a robo-taxi going into a telephone pole, and you could see a 40% drop in Tesla the next day. That makes me nervous. Yeah, it makes me nervous too. What I think is interesting about the argument with the self-driving and the robo-taxi is
is that we sensationalize these like individual incidents. But we don't just look at the overall statistics and make an informed choice about what is actually safer, a human behind the wheel or,
The robot taxi. And I'm not making a case for either, but I just feel like sensationalizing a singular incident is the wrong way to look about it. No, we know what it is. The robot is safer. The robot is definitely safer. That's what the statistics say right now. And we absolutely desperately need...
robo taxi to take over the world. But yet the new story is always what goes wrong instead of Yeah, you know, media is always gonna be suffering a Tesla on fire or a waymo on fire. You know that you get
There are less incidents with the robot. By the way, guys, I don't care what people think about Tesla. Every human on earth should be a cheerleader for Robotaxi right now because the scalability and the price of Robotaxi
is so critical that if RoboTaxi works, if they can figure out the edge cases, it will likely save more lives. Yeah, for me, it's 100% about the safety, especially with how distracting driving is now. You've got, I mean, they're putting like full, like 12, 18 inch screens in cars now. You've got your phone going nuts. You got your watch making noise.
you know it's just not safe to operate without those distractions though people are just not as good at driving because they have two eyes and they have a distractible brain and we're more well yeah you're just filling the cars with distractions right so let the let the computer do it i i agree
Okay, guys, my kids get their license in like nine, 10 months, but, or less than that, like, like seven months, but they're already driving with their friends who I love, but do not trust on the road. You see how these kids drive in our neighborhood. Oh, for sure. It, I hate it. The thing that keeps me up more than anything else are my kids in cars. And like,
And the biggest issue are not even the car they're in. It's other drivers. I have never witnessed in my life more people running red lights and running stop signs than I do today. And I think a lot of that are delivery drivers. A lot of it because they're so distracted by stuff. They're in such a hurry to make money. Well, yeah, that's a different motivation, right? So their motivation is how much can they make and their time. Yeah.
It's absolutely terrifying. And there's just so many, it feels like there are so many more cars on the road driving because of the success of Uber eats and, and door dash and just Uber and Lyft generally. Um, it,
it's really concerning to me and we desperately need robo taxi. We must have robo taxi be a success. So like everybody should be like, if I had kids, they would be getting a model Y and they would not be allowed to turn auto drive, full self-drive off. They'd have to leave that on. Not a bad idea. Um, but yeah,
The reality is, Jordan, that people are not rational. I think what's actually going on, it's not rationality. Look, news companies have to sell sensationalism. That's what they're in the business for. But that's going to put downward pressure on the stock, even though overall, I bet that the safety incidents are going to be better than a general population of drivers.
much better can we talk for a minute about uber because someone just made a comment gosh look at that stock chart on uber uh someone just made a comment uber's toast and this is something i think about a lot i have not shorted uber yet but i do oh wait you want to short oh short uber for the uh because of the self-driving um i do believe this is one of those situations
where there is likely to be an opportunity. Oh, geez. Uber is up 8% today. You know why, Jordan? Is that because of the negative sentiment around the test? I'm telling you, dude. I'm telling you, man. This has got to be short covering, right? People shorted it because of the Austin event and then now... Boom. You just nailed it, Jordan. Did you see the... I saw a screenshot of within the Uber app, they're promoting getting a Waymo.
uh, right in the Uber app. Like, um, we're trying to promote more driverless rides through Uber. They've been doing that for a while. And whenever I'm in a city with Waymo, they try to get me to take the Waymo. I won't do it. I'm freaked out by these. I don't know if this is true, true or not, but the stories where you can't open the door yourself, you have to
if you're in a situation and it gets stuck, you have to request that they let you out of the car. That free, I have claustrophobia. No, it is for me. It's Silicon Valley where like they, uh, where the guy got into the Waymo and then ended up like on a container ship or something. Oh,
You remember this? That seems like an edge case scenario. If I got in a Waymo, I would only do it if I had one of those window breaker things. Waymo drives you into the middle of a downtown LA riot or something and you just need to get out. But you guys know I'm a control freak. The thought of giving some... I have a hard time with that. So here's the thing. Uh...
I think that whether or not we actually believe that Uber will be devastated by the success of RoboTaxi, there is a consensus thesis that if RoboTaxi is a success,
Uber will be negatively impact. So I love the trade of if, and when there is some pot, hopefully it's soon. There is some massive positive momentum where there becomes a high degree of visibility into the rollout expansion of robo taxi. And it is working and it's unassisted and all that stuff. There should be moments where,
to put a massive short on Uber, and I'm excited to do it. Like I'm watching it closely. It's the same thing I've said about Google and ChatGPT. I'm closely following the data. And if, and when I think there is a moment when the data starts to meaningfully impact their search traffic, I will be excited to short Google. I haven't done it yet.
So, I mean, they're going to get impacted, right, Jordan? I mean, there's just no way. Look, if this is successful, but do we have like real solid metrics on what is success?
Yes. I mean, what we do, we have the number and they have to report this, right? They have the number of interruptions, the success rate. And once they actually move away from
i don't want to call it supervised because it's kind of supervised but once they get someone out of the car it's safety guided yeah basically someone with a with a stop button that they can press yeah somebody that can yeah yeah well they gotta think yeah
The issue, Jordan, with Waymo is that the cost metrics on Waymo are still high enough to where it's not like a massive uber disruptor. But the cost metrics on... Well, and what they're doing right now is pretty limited in the scope, what Waymo does. I mean, they're not doing like, you know, you can't get a...
Waymo to take you 50 miles, right? It's correct. They're, they're, they're geo fence just like, just like Robo taxi for the moment. But the theoretical thesis on Robo taxi is once they get over the hump and prove themselves that it would theoretically at some point in the future be non geo fenced, but more important than that, the cost of,
The economics of RoboTaxi would be low enough to be meaningfully disruptive to Uber. And I think the opportunity to short Uber once that realization starts to take place, and it won't happen until we see meaningful success of RoboTaxi. It can't be what they're doing right now. It has to be meaningful success.
yeah right now improving in a single geofenced area that this autonomous vehicle that hasn't been trained on specific roads that doesn't have a special equipment that isn't in the stock vehicle that just rolls off the assembly line today like that is robo taxi's advantage is that theoretically they could just say okay we're now going to be in atlanta to compete with waymo well yeah it doesn't really matter at that point who buys the cars because it's like they can sell the cars or
you know, if for some reason sales aren't where they like them to be or, you know, there's some sort of demand issue, they just deploy these things themselves. Right. Which is the idea. More money not selling cars, just making them and keeping them in their own fleet. Jordan, the idea is to have the customers supply the capital by using their own car. Ideally, but worst case, you know, worst case, Tesla can still get revenue out of these things.
well yeah I mean for Tesla it's like a huge win because it's literally they win all over like that's what I'm saying so basically they've got built-in demand no matter what whether it's external or internal demand exactly exactly so there is listen the the long thesis on robo taxi once proven is actually fairly solid well I think proven is it's so tough right because it's
It's tough. I mean, this could take years and years and years to get approved.
you know, just Jordan, I don't Texas says, okay, we're good. Does that mean, you know, Jordan, I don't think the regulatory timeline as a trader matters as much as much as the inevitability of that happening based on the visual sight line into it working fluidly. Like if you were to see a major metro have this thing completely open up, no holds barred at that point,
Jordan, I think if we see that in Austin, if we see unsupervised robo-taxi in Austin, not geofence, or like a much, much larger geofence. Or at least geofence to the metro area, right? Yeah. So if we see that,
And we see any type of sustained success, no edge case scenarios. And people love it because listen, we all know that people love the smoothness of FSD. It's unparalleled, right? So like once we see that happen,
I think it's game over for investors. Like that's the trade. The trade then is on the long Tesla short Uber trade is on at that point. So I don't necessarily know that it's like a black and white day in the future. When that happens, it might be a lot of like, Oh yeah, we're there. Maybe we're not. Yeah. We're there. So like there might be multiple opportunities to make that trade or
and over again as we start to see those massive progress points happen. And that is my philosophy on trading Tesla because I don't, you know, I was thinking that the world would fully grasp the potential of humanoids and optimists the first half of this year, you
Now I'm not thinking it's going to happen until maybe the last quarter of this year or the first half of next year. So I'm kind of like pushing my timeline out for the realization of how large that it's happening, but it's just happening gradually. So I can tell you that I feel phone calls from many of the largest investors in the world now.
almost, I know this, you're not gonna believe this, almost daily. So I'm getting inquiries almost daily from the largest investors in the world. These are funds, these are family offices, these are high net worth.
And they just want me to talk to them about humanoids and understand the landscape. They want to understand the companies. They want to know what's real, what's not real. So it's happening at that level, but I don't think it's quite happened on a fully scaled out level to where the entire capital market sector is going berserk for humanoids, in which case,
that would transfer to the only publicly traded opportunity in the space, which is Tesla, right? And Optimus. That hasn't happened yet, guys. And I think in the next 12 months it happens.
but I don't know when. So like, I can't sit my money in Tesla for 12 months and potentially not only have it not grow, but have it get sliced by 20, 30, 40%. If there is a robo taxi disaster, I'm not willing to do that because the cost of capital is too high right now. I mean, it's, if you look at the opportunity cost of capital, it's never been higher. Yeah. Like if you pick the right AI stocks here, I,
I mean, who knows? Because it's not just about stock capital appreciation on the equity. I'm trading levered, right? So if I can get a 10%, 20% move in a stock and I could time it right, that's 100% to 150% return on my capital over a short window of time.
So if I could do that with 25% of my portfolio in a trade, I just increased the total portfolio by 50% on one trade. And you know, I've done that a couple of times this year, which is insane. And I can get one or two more of those this year. That could be a 300% total portfolio move for 2025, which I'm going to go for.
And Jordan, I know that makes you sick because you know how much leverage I have to put, how much risk I have to take for that to happen. It's a lot of risk. I think the philosophy is different is that, look, I mean, making money is great, right? I don't need that. Like I don't need the risk and I don't need that reward. I mean, I would love for my portfolio to be up 300% this year, but it's not necessary. There's no reason for me to take that risk.
Yeah, no, I understand that completely. I would say, Jordan, 99% of investors are in your boat and not only don't need it, but probably shouldn't be thinking that way with their core portfolio. But the one thing that we've been talking about, Jordan, for 15 years is
is bucketing money and having a higher risk, higher return bucket of money that is...
is not your retirement account. It's not your vacation account. It's not for your kids' healthcare, but it's money that you hopefully will grow at 50% a year or more by taking larger risk on high conviction trades that you're identifying.
Right. Like that. And that's literally what I do. The difference is I do it with most of my portfolio, which is insane. I don't recommend that. I recommend like if anything have. So I do what you do. I do what you do with like a options account. Right. That I trade daily. And so that's what I do. The same thing. I just I don't do that with the bulk. I just do that with your fun money, with an options account. Yeah.
And so I keep those two worlds separate. He's doing exactly what you're doing. I keep an investing world and I keep an options world open. Dave, you asked about Robinhood.
it's my number two position, not including leverage. I don't have any Robinhood calls. I was trading options on Robinhood all through that move from the 30 to the 80, 70, whatever. I'm not doing that anymore. And the reason why I'm not doing that is it's more difficult for me today to assess the short term of Robinhood. The way that you believe about Tesla long-term, which I also do believe the same.
for Tesla. I believe that with confidence and conviction for Robinhood. I believe that if we can look out five to 10 years, Robinhood is meaningfully larger. But if I look out like one to three months, I just don't know. Like the stock has been hot, will it continue to stay hot? Can they continue to excite investors?
with new products, with more expansion. You know, they constantly release numbers on Robinhood over the engagement levels, the assets under management. They've been great all year. Will there be a time next month where maybe they flatten out for a month or two? I just don't feel comfortable being overly levered in Robinhood, but it's a huge position for me. I'm not like, I'm not buying more because it's like my number two position. Yeah.
Well, that's where I am with Tesla. It's such a big percentage of my portfolio, but I feel like I need more Nvidia. That's my number one thing that I need to buy. And then I need more Robin hood. And both of them are kind of back to all time highs or near there. So I'm not really quite sold some Robin hood today. Excited about buying it today at today's prices. Why'd you sell Jordan? Cause it's up like six or 7% today.
I didn't sell the whole thing. I sold some. And then if it goes red in the next few days, I'll buy some more. Like, I don't know. This is not hard to understand. It's all good. I mean, everybody has their own thing, dude. I mean, you got your thing. I got mine. Dave has his. By the way, I pulled up PopMart right now. It's been doing really well since our episode last week. I mean, it's up 4% today, or at least it was. Yeah. Yeah. PopMart. Let's go.
Dave, do you want to go? You should go with me to Pop Mart Galleria this week at some point. Yeah, I'll go with you. Just to see it. We should do our Tex-Mex Friday in that area, maybe. Is there a Tex-Mex up there somewhere? I mean, let's not go to North Dallas to eat. Let's eat somewhere good, and then we'll go to North Dallas. Sorry to all of our North Dallas viewers, but if you're north of Northwest Highway, you're kind of in the nosebleed section.
Dude, we are the biggest toms. By the way, I don't know if you saw my ex account yesterday. I'm watching your comments. We're about to be canceled north of 635. Oh, wait, wait. I did buy a new stock today I didn't tell you about. What? I did buy a new stock. What did you buy? I think I've owned this. I did no research, but I had to own it. I had to own it. Okay, so-
You know I've been talking about this show, Love Island, right? So my daughter had me watch it. So I drove my daughter to camp this weekend. And I left my house at 5 a.m., got home at 2 a.m. And on the way to camp, basically we agreed to watch this show. She's been watching the Australian version, which is less popular.
trashy, but we watched the American version of Love Island. Okay. And you might've watched, see my ex account. Love Island yesterday was the number two most downloaded app in the world behind chat GPT. Okay. You know what the number four app was in the world? Peacock. Because that's how you watch Love Island. You know who owns Peacock?
Comcast, okay? So here's the deal. We at my restaurants have been running Love Island watch parties. We did it at Chelsea Corner last night. We'll do it at Milo Butterfingers Thursday and Friday. We are hitting records. We had people at 6 p.m. yesterday lining out the door. I had 25 cars waiting for valet at 6 p.m. We filled the restaurant elbow to elbow on a Monday night.
at between 6 and 8 p.m. to watch Love Island. I have not seen a phenomenon like this in so long on television. It is absolutely amazing.
So this Love Island show, the thing about it is they have so many episodes. They're airing episodes every couple days. They have Love Island America. They have Love Island all around the world. This franchise is so big already.
I don't know yet because I didn't do my research, but I think it just might be a needle mover for Peacock and for Comcast. Because you know why, guys? First of all, rewind. Are the foreign versions also Comcast shows or is it just...
Love Island U.S. on I don't know I'm speaking irresponsibly right now because I just didn't have time to research but I know the U.S. one is and second question is the show even watchable because I it doesn't sound watchable to me is it something that you enjoyed so here's the thing
I enjoy any bonding experience with my daughter. So it was really a lot of fun for me. And by the way, I was headed down to San Antonio, ready for this, halfway, not halfway, three quarters of the way there. I see I'm driving 75 miles per hour in my truck. And there is the biggest crow I've ever seen in my life with its legs outstretched, holding another animal. And the animal is so heavy, the crow is descending everywhere.
In slow motion, I had like within a second and a half, this crow hit our front windshield and came through our front windshield. Glass all over us. What? You almost lost me, guys. Dumb money almost ended on Sunday. That's insane. Why didn't you tell me about this? Okay, so. Where's your viral social post?
We pulled over to the side of the road. My car had to go to a shop. We had to get an Uber to the airport, get a rental car to drive the rest of the way. But it was crazy.
Catastrophic. Okay. And I still can't get it out of my head. I had PTSD from this two seconds of my life when I saw this thing that I had no control over, by the way, because like you couldn't stop quick enough, right? I knew it was going to impact. And when it impacted the force of it hitting...
I didn't know what was going to happen to us quite honestly. And it was, it was horrifying, but I also thought about robo taxi because I was like, you know what? If you're in the back seat, it would have sucked, but you wouldn't have had glass all over you. And you would have felt a little more comfortable. Like, you know, it's something about having the front seats be unoccupied. Uh,
Somehow, if that was the story of the thing that went wrong for RoboTaxi as a crow crashed through the window of one, somehow that might be an okay. Well, what I'm... That's unavoidable. So here's the thing. The show...
was too trashy for my taste. It was kind of, you remember back in the day when we thought like the bachelor and bachelorette were like racy? Yeah. This puts that to shame. So just by the title, it sounds to me like a survivor meets bachelorette meets, I don't know, what's the one? Bachelor.
Vanderpump rules. I spoke to my, I spoke to my, my, one of my managers at Milo's last night about our love Island party there on Friday. And he said, Chris, I've never seen anything like this in my life. It was like, people were watching the super bowl, chanting, yelling, screaming, cheering on. I like, he's like the, the degree of engagement that,
that existed between hundreds of these people that were at our bar restaurant. And what was, we had all 20 TVs turned on full audio. We don't even put full audio on usually for sporting games. Okay. That sounds like a miserable experience, but I'm glad you said so much.
And there was a really, there was a large Dallas influencer who I saw a video late last night that just rolled into Chelsea Corner when we were having this party by chance. She said it was one of the greatest times she's ever had a restaurant. She was like, I walked into this cultural moment and it was so fun just being part of it. So what I'm getting at here, guys, is this is not just a show.
This is a show that from what I understand, you like want to watch with your friend, with your friends in a group setting. So my daughter watches this with like one of her friends normally. So it's like a whole experience. Right. And it's like you get really into the characters and everything.
I think this thing has legs. And the commercial segments are so annoying that you absolutely must buy a Peacock Premium Plus membership. Because if you don't, the commercials will drive you insane.
Is it one of the things where they just play the same commercials over and over again? I don't. It's the biggest problem with streaming that I've seen is it's always the same commercials. And so like, it just gets stuck in your head and you're like, I can't, I can't. And you see the countdown that says you're watching commercial one of nine. And it's like, Oh yeah. And you're like, Oh my gosh, how much does it cost to get rid of this commercial? Okay. So what I'm going to do over the next few days is I'm going to try to assess the
using real research, not just like five minutes of my gut instinct, which is what I did before this trade. I'm going to try to assess the degree to which Peacock is generating premium plus subscriptions from this show. I did a quick Google search on Love Island, Dave, and in the U.S.,
It is stratospheric. It hit hard last summer in July, but this is stratospheric. It's looking to be potentially double to triple last year. And it's...
Like it's wild. The data looks wild. So I'm going to pull a lot more data on this in the next couple of days. And guys, for you, dumb money, social arbitrators that are part of our like core OGs, I will share that data in the trade research channel of the dumbmoney.tv discord here this week. I'll share everything I'm able to find with you guys. Yeah. But,
I don't know, man. This could be a needle mover for Comcast. It might not be, but I think I've seen enough. You could be the number two app in the world, higher than Google. I mean, just in the world? That's freaking wild. Yeah, I mean, the stock is not historically performed very well, so you might have an opportunity for it to move the needle. Now I need to check and make sure my trade actually... Oh, here it is. So it's CMCSA.com.
And it's up like a little tiny bit. Like this is not a stock that people are trading, right? That's the thing. So I haven't like got in a huge position yet because I hadn't started my real research. But once I start my real research, I will share it. I might also share it on X as well. This is a fun one, guys. It's been on for years, apparently. It's just now becoming a nom. Yeah, somebody was saying it started in the UK. In the UK, it was just on X.
There is a girl on this show, a woman on this show. Her name is Huda.
And she, I'm going to use Gen Z terminology. Oh, that's where Huda comes from. I didn't understand the reference. I was watching a TikTok and they were talking about Huda. Huda had the largest crash out in TV history. That's my Gen X. My kids use that word. So she had the largest crash out in TV history. Now, I haven't gotten to that episode yet because I dropped my daughter off at camp and we agreed that we would...
watch the rest of the year together in two weeks when she's done and it's killing me because I'm seeing clips of this. Because you're that into it? What? You're that into it? It's pretty good. I mean, here's the deal. It's trashy and it's not a show that I would continue to watch like season after season, but now that I'm in it. You got to realize, I mean, Chris is built for this stuff. I think you probably watched every season of Below Deck, right? Yeah.
So I watched a lot of the seasons, but Jordan, the thing is like, here's the deal. You know, I love all this stuff, but when AI hit a year and a half ago, I've been so consumed with AI research that I have to pry myself away from doing research into just like watching a show with my wife because like, I just, like, I can't research everything.
I can't be doing this with 100% of my free time. I'm trying to be normal still and watch normal TV and movie. But I've stopped watching a lot of TV because I'm just consumed with AI research. I'm panicked.
then I'm going to miss a huge trade because I don't know when the window closes. I don't know if we have two years, a year, three years to make some of these really big trades. And I like to go in levered. And when I'm going in levered, I need to make sure I'm analyzing every piece of information and not missing anything, right? So like this is a point in my life when I'm just doing a lot of work, but I love it.
And I just don't have a lot of time for TV. You're basically telling me that after we go to the mall and you buy your Labubu, we are not allowed to go home and watch Love Island? I will watch it with my daughter. I'll watch Love Island. And I do watch TV, but I'm not consuming as much of that stuff as I used to because we're in the... I told you, we're in the greatest moment that has ever existed for investors.
We might never see a moment like this again for the rest of our lives. So like, how can I not take full advantage of it? Like I could potentially three X my total portfolio this year. I've already two X it. And it's not a small portfolio. And like, I haven't been able to do that in a long time. So like, I don't know if I can, I do that again next year and then it might be over. I might never be able to do that again. So yeah.
I just saw the time and thought that we had been on for a really long time. We started 30 minutes later than we normally do. Yeah. I thought this was a marathon show. Okay. So Dave, we'll do Tex-Mex Friday and we'll do a Lububu Pop Mart visit. Perfect. Galeria. Okay. Yeah. Now that you've said that though, you're going to be mobbed by your dumb money fans. Yeah.
At the Lububu store. They're going to be waiting outside. The Gallery of Mall in Dallas right after lunchtime. We'll upload a pic of us on X at Dave buying his first Lububu. I'm not buying one, no. I don't think you can. I think they're probably sold out. You might need to get a Skullcandy. I'm not buying anything. I'm not buying anything from Pop Mart. I'm opposed to the trade. Remember, you are all in on the trade, and I think that it's a dumb trade.
Well, I'm hoping you make money, but I just can't bring myself to do it. We'll see. We'll see. All right. And with that, we're going to wrap it up. Thanks everybody for watching. We're dumb money. We will see you next.