Trump/Elon War Changes Everything
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Well, the bromance between Donald Trump and Elon Musk is over. In case you missed it, here are the highlights from the very public breakup that we all got to watch in real time yesterday. It all started during the live Q&A from the Oval Office where Trump said that he was disappointed in Elon for coming out against the big, beautiful bill. He said that Elon knew the inner workings of the bill better than anyone and had no problem with it.

but now all of a sudden he has a problem with it, to which Elon posted on X saying that's a lie, that he never even saw the bill, and nobody in Congress even had time to read the bill because it was pushed out in the dead of the night. That quickly devolved from there into an insane back and forth ping-ponging between X and Truth Social. Elon said Trump would have lost the election without him. Trump said Elon was wearing thin and went crazy. Elon dropped his really big bomb saying that Trump is in the Epstein files. Trump

fired back saying that the easiest way to save money in the budget is to terminate all of Elon's government contracts. Elon said, okay, SpaceX is going to decommission that dragon spacecraft immediately. Trump said, Elon's turning against me. Elon said Trump tariffs are going to cause a recession this year. Bottom line, Trump thinks the big beautiful bill is the greatest thing that Congress has ever seen. And Elon thinks Congress is spending America into bankruptcy. Now, all we have to do is figure out what this means for investors.

Today on Dumb Money, how the Trump-Elon war changes everything. The Hoover Dam wasn't built in a day, and the GMC Sierra lineup wasn't built overnight. Like every American achievement, building the Sierra 1500 heavy duty and EV was the result of dedication, a dedication to mastering the art of engineering. That's what this country has done for 250 years.

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Hey there, Dave here along with Chris and Jordan. We are Dumb Money. Welcome to Dumb Money Live. Quick reminder to smash the like button, help us out with the almighty algorithm. Thumbs up if you're team Elon, of course, also thumbs up if you're team Trump. Basically, smash the like button. I don't think the down thumb even works. Or the heart on X or whatever your podcast you're listening to. Just find a way to tell the algorithm that you like us, Chris, Jordan, and

I really got worked up about that. It was quite a day yesterday. Who would have ever predicted that the two billionaires of the world's biggest egos would not be BFFs for forever? Forever? Forever? Everybody. So I actually... The biggest prediction of 2025 is that somehow...

that this partnership would end. We knew it. We just didn't know it was going to flame out this spectacularly in public for all of us to watch. I had to pull over my car, cancel a meeting, and just sit on X and watch the thing unfold while trying to mentally process how I should trade around it. You called me kind of early in the process and I was like,

Yeah, I don't think it's going to escalate too much. And then I nearly fell out of my chair when the Epstein thing was tweeted on X. The Epstein thing was big. That's when it got real. I thought that it was pretty mild until that. Yeah.

So I have a poll running on YouTube chat right now. Team Elon or team Trump. 81% of our audience right now is team Elon, 19% team Trump, uh,

That subject to change throughout the course of today's discussion. But can we start at the beginning? Because Elon had just wrapped up his side job working with Doge. He was back at Tesla. The stock was up 30% in the month leading up to that Oval Office ceremony where Trump gave him the key to the Oval Office or the White House. I'm pretty sure he changed the locks yesterday.

The very next day after getting that key, Elon went all in trying to kill the bill. And in less than a week, Tesla stock dropped like a rock. Well, Dave, step back even further than that. Elon gave up a lot. Oh, yeah. Reputationally, financially. This entire...

political kind of, you know, last eight months, uh, Elon has been in a spiral, uh, a death spiral, basically all of his companies, uh,

We're in the dumps because of this. The only thing that he benefited from was being aligned with the administration and having the tailwind of assistance from this administration in exchange for the hate and the loss of sales and.

the just emotional spiral of negativity surrounding him and his brands. And when Doge basically, let's be honest, essentially failed because of the big beautiful bill, essentially rendering Doge useless. I don't think it failed because of the big beautiful bill. I think it failed way before that. And then his intended savings never really panned out.

Jordan, I disagree. I disagree. And here's why I, I, I, I, I, I just, I, you have, again, I, me and you are at odds on this. It's not about anything specific in Doge. It's about a mindset change. It's about a mindset change that every president has been trying to, to some, with some, to some extent, uh, actually fix.

the spiraling spending of government and no one has been successful doge it didn't matter whether doge cut 50 billion or a trillion it was a mindset change that something could be done now i know you disagree about no what i'm saying is that his intended just the doge cuts nothing to do with this new bill just the doge cuts were supposed to be a trillion dollars a year

That was the intent. That was the promise. Well, originally, it was $2 trillion. It was not a promise. It was a goal. And it's probably way smaller than that. Jordan, it was not a promise. It was a goal. It was an objective. It was a goal. So goal failed. OK. Jordan, that was a stretch goal that whether it failed or not,

He was actually changing the mind. But we know before the big, beautiful bill came out that we've been seeing government spending. We've seen the graphs. And it didn't make a dent versus previous years. Of course it didn't make a dent. Before the big, beautiful bill. Oh, my gosh. So what does it have to do with the bill? Of course it didn't make a dent. Doge could have...

Why is my jittery all of a sudden? Yeah, you're kind of jittery. A little bit. Yeah. Did you turn it off and turn it back on again? I got to reboot my whole computer here and allow you to like... Allow Jordan to dominate the conversation for a minute. Ending it for a full minute. That would be horrible. And should I do it for the rest of the episode? For the good of the rest of the episode? I mean, honestly, I get what you're saying, Jordan. I get what you're saying, but...

It was the first time we had ever shown that any individual entity could actually start to make a tiny move. All he did was chaos. He was a chaos agent. He was firing people. You've got to look at where the government spending is, and he's going after nickels and not after the big... Okay, Jordan, I agree.

But it needed, it should have been followed up with a very different bill. No, it should have been. No, no, no, no, no. It should have been a plan from the beginning. So he should have been creating plans. He should have been looking at spending, creating plans instead of sowing chaos in the United States government.

Okay, but Jordan, when has creating plans ever worked when it comes to cutting government spending? Even a tiny bit, even like this much. I don't care. This is not how you go about it. It didn't work. So whatever he did, mission failed. Oh.

Okay, I agree with you, mission failed, because the reality is that he actually naively believed that he could actually set a new tone, and that tone would result in a...

change of thinking in government and it obviously failed. It did not work. I agree with you on that note, because if you look at the big, beautiful bill, it's definitely big. The extent to which it's beautiful is debatable, obviously. But it failed. And I think Elon

really took that personally. And it wasn't just the big beautiful bill. It was the fact that his guy at NASA got rejected. And if there's one thing that you can say about Elon, if there's one thing that I think everybody should be able to agree on when it comes to Elon, it's that he probably is the best person to identify leadership when it comes to space.

uh, innovation. Okay. That's like a non-political thing. And the guy that Elon put up to head up NASA, I guess made a few hundred thousand dollars of donations at one point, uh, to Democrats and that, and that alone, uh,

was enough for Trump and his team to overrule Elon. And I think that more than anything else, quite honestly, was the thing that put Elon over the edge because that is something that nobody needed to do. Like you could say the big, beautiful bill was like, you know, big political. It's very hard to actually cut defense, to actually cut entitlement programs. It's hard politically to cut the budgets anyway. Yeah.

Nobody wants to vote for someone who's going to say I'm raising taxes and cutting benefits, but everybody wants lower cost of everything. It's like it's politically suicide to try to cut budgets. So Elon inserted himself in saying, hey, I'm willing to be the scapegoat and try to cut the budgets and try to reduce our spending and try to find fraud and waste.

And it turned out to be a task that was just, there were too many obstacles for him to actually be effective at that.

But Dave, do you know what would have been really easy? And this was the F you in his face, was just to give him his space, his NASA guy. Yeah, yeah. I agree. There was no reason to overrule Elon when it came to just allowing him to have at least a little bit of influence over the NASA program, which has obviously been so...

like just you know we don't even have to go there i no one will debate that that elon has made much bigger strides when it comes to space technology than anything that nasa has done the last 20 years so i think that's what put him over the edge but let here's the thing guys i think everybody is looking at this the wrong way right now everyone's trying to figure out if you

how this is going to impact Tesla, if they're on the ins, if they're out. Everyone's making big decisions right now. I don't think that's how we should look at this. If you look at the history of Trump and you look at the history of Elon, Trump is a really temperamental guy. He's really emotional. So is Elon, right? I think that the way that this unfolds over the next two to three years is

has yet to be written. And I actually think there will be ups and downs. I think there will be moments over the next couple of years when we think maybe they patched this up enough to where we can put this behind us. And then there will be moments that we realize, oh no, what did Elon just say? Right? Or what did Trump just say that's going to piss off Elon, that's going to ignite

ignite a potential escalation cycle again. So if you recall, when Elon was getting aggressively involved with Trump initially, every single time there would be a moment that would benefit the two of them, people rushed even deeper into Tesla stock, right? Yeah, the post-election run-up

It didn't happen all at once. It happened in waves. I think that this is an opportunity not to make any huge decisions now that you're going to dig your heels into as an investor. But this is an opportunity to say, you know what? We are now in a fast trading environment as it relates to Tesla.

Meaning you need to hang on every single word. And it's not just about Trump and Elon. It's about Trump's people because the reality is it's Trump's people like Bannon that are going to be the igniters of the next flame. Right? So if I was- Did you see Bannon yesterday saying that we need to deport Elon and investigate him? Like-

First of all, deporting Elon, the richest guy in the world, he's the kind of person you want to encourage to come to this country. There's plenty of people we could deport. I don't think it should be Elon. And send him to another country where he takes all of his technology and just becomes a national of some other country that's competing against the U.S.? Come on.

I'll tell you the one person here that you can say without a doubt who's really lost his mind and needs to shut the hell up is Bannon. Okay. End of story. Okay. I don't care what side you're on. Get rid of that guy. But all right. All things aside, we are in a fast trading environment from this point forward. If you're an investor and you are not getting alerts from

and watching X every second of the day for anything that Elon says. The one thing that I've noticed over the past couple years, and this is really astonishing, you would think with all the algorithms and all the quants and all the fast trading shops on Wall Street, because I've been in the fast trading shop. Have you ever been in it? Let me tell you what it's like. A fast trading shop on Wall Street is just an entire floor of a crappy building in New York.

And you basically have hundreds and hundreds of traders, either in tiny little cubicles or working with each other. And all these guys are doing.

And it is guys. It's like, I think it's like a hundred percent guys. It's exactly, they look exactly like you think they would look. Okay. These are not like Wharton NBA guys. All they're doing is scraping news and getting alert and fast trading. And they all have, but they all have allocations essentially that they can trade and they make a piece of the profit. First of all, how is that even a job anymore? Hasn't that just completely been eliminated with computer quants? Nope.

ai trading nope it's still a big deal um but what's amazing dave what i would not be doing is going to college to try to get that job in the future though well no probably not but what is amazing is that individual retail traders like us i have still had a massive amount of success

by preparing my mind of what I want to do in advance, waiting for the tweet. And then within seconds of that tweet or X post,

making the trade I know exactly what option I'm going to buy if Elon says something that is you know particularly concerning that could lead to to investor concern about his relationship and Tesla's relationship with the government and and I also have another option that I'm prepared and ready to go on

If Trump or anyone in the administration says something or if there's a rumor, like I follow various alert sites, right, that are posting on rumors, there is still so much opportunity to trade that stuff in real time.

time. But you have to be following this news cycle and we're in it now, guys. Whether you love it or hate it, we are deep in a fast trading environment, probably for the next few days, next few weeks. Hell, it might even be for the next few months on this subject matter. So let's talk about the trade. Let's disclose what you did yesterday, because I know that you had puts on Tesla before any of this started exploding.

Did you also fast trade in addition to the puts you already had in place? So I'll tell you what I did. And by the way, I mean, my Tesla puts are inconsequential. I have had, as you know, guys, I have had the largest...

uh position of nvidia calls and more recently robin hood calls i've had in a long time i've basically been trading up every week rolling up that position meaning that i'm making massive profits in those call options i'm selling them and i'm taking part of my profits to purchase new call options at a higher strike price

I've been doing that like every week. It's honestly insane. I did it again last week and I did it again yesterday when there was a drop in NVIDIA. I went ahead and bought even more. So I loaded up. I have I have an unreasonable number of NVIDIA calls right now that expire every

Yeah, in a few hours. And I purchased even more this morning that expire next week. And I don't even care if the market falls apart in the next few hours. I'll just use that drop to go even deeper on NVIDIA calls that expire next week. Because I'm spending now about an hour to an hour and a half every night. I know you guys get a few texts from me late night.

probably at two in the morning. I'll share only one or two. I try not to wake you up. You can text all you want. My phone mutes all incoming noise at about 10 p.m. Oh, mine's 9 p.m., so I'm done at 9 p.m. But I've been doing the same thing as you, Chris. Every time I see...

you know a little bit of red on Nvidia I just buy some calls it's the it's the easiest thing to make right now so George you know what I love about this whole Elon Trump feud trade is that it brings down everything yeah I mean Tesla dropped a lot yesterday but everything started dropping so I just bought some calls I love it I love it I love it like

It was a big overcorrection yesterday. So if you were, if you timed that right and you had puts right as the president started speaking about Elon, and then you switched to calls at the end of the day, you would have, you would have made 7,000% on your money.

Guys, I think I reached the end of the internet as it relates to people's opinions on NVIDIA, Insight, Alpha, analyst research, rumors coming out of China. I don't think there's been one thing written on any platform related to NVIDIA, the company, any of its suppliers. And my conviction level is about as high as it gets right now.

Okay. On NVIDIA. And I'm not going to stop. And I'm almost hoping for a drop. So let me lose money so I can go in even deeper. And I know I shouldn't be talking about NVIDIA when we're talking about an Elon Trump feud. But I see that feud as bringing me more opportunity because there was no reason that NVIDIA should have dropped when it did yesterday. And I took that drop to double down on NVIDIA.

my favorite stock right now. Yeah, no, I think finding opportunities like that is gold in this environment when the market just kind of slowly eases up every day. And if you get a little drop for something that you like because of something totally unrelated, it's just an opportunity in my opinion. Yeah, do you know why? And that's,

it's noise it's because everyone's consumed by noise and i love it when everyone else is consumed by noise and i'm zoned in i am locked in okay locked into my research um i'm gonna say something right now every single major country in the world is about to develop a pro okay did i get chopped up when i got shot yeah you were about to develop okay every cut

Okay, well, let me say it again. Every country in the world is about to develop a proprietary AI infrastructure, okay, for the next 50 years. And guess who's powering every single one of those? NVIDIA. Nobody's talking about it. Yeah, one company behind it all. Sovereign AI. There's no better play than NVIDIA, I think, over the next 10 years.

sovereign AI is bigger than anybody can possibly imagine and these news this news going to start to break I think in the next few weeks as more and more countries start to announce their sovereign AI projects there is only one company in the world that has the capacity to power that it's like the Intel inside we're about to see the Nvidia inside of every country's

AI platform. Okay. I think we need to talk about the whole idea about how Donald Trump feels about someone kind of needs to be priced into these stocks, whether it's Elon or Tim Cook and his iPhone tariff or Jensen with,

Nvidia or Zuckerberg and meta, like everything the president says has the potential to not only impact the one stock and the one guy that he's mad at for whatever reason, but the whole market.

but also dave remember how trump is remember what vance said about trump a long time ago didn't he say like the worst that he he was talking about like it was the worst insult he called him hitler right didn't he call trump like the american hitler years ago yeah and he's now the vice president under trump okay so remember this about trump trump you can say anything about trump

And you have the ability to work your way back in. All right. And so and so if he chooses, if you were to take the two egomaniacs of Trump and Elon, I feel like Elon has deep convictions about what he thinks and isn't going to change his mind. Trump, I don't think has any real anything he's really passionate about other than money and fame and success for himself personally.

You just nailed it right there. You nailed it. There will always be a window open for this relationship. I mean, you can commit any crime you want, give Donald Trump a million dollars and he's going to pardon you. It's like an instant get out of jail free card for a million dollars. Well, you know what I thought was interesting were the comments that Elon made late last night and I guess this morning or the retweets.

showing that Elon wanted to deescalate. So it looks like they're going to take a breather. But I think it is really important that over the short term, it's on, I would say it's unlikely, but possible, but unlikely that Elon would escalate further, because

Elon is also really emotional. And I think he's realizing that it's not in his interest right now after everything he's been through to push harder. So I guess he's going to not cancel, uh,

you know, his space ownership with the government yet, right? He walked back from that. They're both very reactionary and they were letting this play out. They're fast tweeting this faster than anybody could even fast trade it.

And I feel like they didn't have... There was not enough time for their advisors to come in and say, Hey, hey, cool it. You're blowing things up. You don't need to do this. Advisors? I don't think any of them listened to their advisors anyway, but... There's no advisors. By the way, yesterday was a moment, guys. It was... I told my kids, I said...

What happened today might go down as one of the most extraordinary events in American political history. And I know you guys could care less. They're like summertime. They're doing their stuff that, you know, they don't care. But I was like, you're going to you're going to read about this someday. This is this is just what, by the way, how how wild was that to live through yesterday? I was stunned. It takes a lot.

to really stun you i i was i was yelling throughout the house we're witnessing history you're not watching this well i'll tell you this i also went last night with my wife and daughter and saw uh mission impossible at the imax which i was so excited for multiple reasons because my daughter like will only see one movie a year uh in a movie theater with us my son wouldn't even go but

That movie, as amazing as it was, and by the way, if you're watching right now, drop everything and get yourself an IMAX ticket to see that movie while it's still on the IMAX because I'm telling you, do you realize the first Mission Impossible day was 1996? Watching that movie and the way they wrapped it up was very similar to the Top Gun, the latest Top Gun movie where it felt nostalgic and

And it was so cool, but it also was really unnerving to watch that movie the same day that we had this destabilizing thing happen in our government. I actually started to get so much anxiety halfway through that movie because I couldn't stop thinking about the fact that

there are no stable grownups anymore in the government. And I'm watching this movie going like, I am actually meaningfully worried about

uh, about the next 20 years with AI, with politics, with like the destabilization of the world right now. And I'm watching this spending with the money printing with, you know, everything, everything is just kind of like teetering on the edge right now, which is why, like when we, we saw this escalating and then everybody started guessing, like how far could this go? Is there going to be a, a Tesla tariff is, is, is there going to be a big push to,

Elon tweeted yes to let's impeach Trump and put JD in place. Uh,

Elon had his new political ex-party. I mean, the taco trade, is Trump going to chicken out on this one? Like there's so many things that were, they were being discussed yesterday. Well, so many, I really don't, it's really hard to make me anxious probably because I've been trading derivatives since I was 13 years old with the, you know, half of my net worth on each trade. Right. But yeah,

Last night watching that movie, I was checking my phone every half an hour. I was actually starting to get nervous for like our entire civilization between the movie and what was actually happening in real life, which is almost as insane as what I was watching in the movie, right? So right now we seem to have a little bit of a de-escalation on both sides, but you know that isn't going to last for forever. What do you think the most likely next...

thing is i think i think the here's the deal like hopefully hopefully elon with everything he's been through the last few months is able to just swallow his pride here i mean i think that's what it's going to take because someone has to swallow their pride and it's not going to be trump okay let's be honest it's not going to be trump

uh okay so elon i hope he swallows his pride and and and and and does a little bit of damage control uh for himself here i think if he does just a little damage control that will go a long way to allowing trump to say well elon apologized so now i can be friends with him again i'm we're not gonna you know we're not gonna be hanging out

on Air Force One as much, but, you know, I'm not going to, I'm not going to, you know, ban robo taxis. Correct, Dave. And, and so many other CEOs have figured this out. They figured out how to play the Trump game. And I really hope that Elon kind of figures it out really quick. Trump just needs to be the kingmaker and Elon has to

provide that to him and all will be okay i don't know if elon can do that more than short term is the problem because ultimately elon in his head

feels that he needs to make a difference and needs to make a difference, not just with his companies, but in, you know, the world. And I think he realizes that the midterms are coming, right? We're going to get into midterm politics here, right? After this summer, it's probably going to start to heat up. And can Elon stay out of it? Can he stay out of it? I don't see any way that Elon stays out of it.

That's what you have to worry about. I really think that Elon's just concerned about America and the way that he's gone about it is odd. But I think it's pretty apparent that when he blew up was all about this big, beautiful bill and the deficit spending that it's going to throw the country into for the next however long. And I think it really upset him.

Yeah, I think so, too. I think he really is 100 percent about that because it makes perfect sense. He he did doge because he thought he could make a difference. He couldn't. And then he saw it as a slap in the face that, you know, they're just going to go out and spend and spend and spend. Absolutely. He's not able to save the country any money.

And balance that out with Trump on the other side saying, well, I've packed all the MAGA movement into a single bill and this needs to pass or else it's a failure for the movement. So let's play out like the trading scenarios for if the bill passes, if the bill fails, or if the bill gets rewritten, right? Because I think that you have to be prepared for any scenario. And I think, you know, if it passes, obviously more debt, more money printing, more inflation, right?

buy Bitcoin, buy stocks, let the next generation deal with it. But what are you thinking? Well, I mean, if the bill passes, it's got to be net stimulative for the economy, right? So like you're still pumping money into the economy. So generally what happens when you're at full employment is you want to run, you know, budget surpluses. But if

You're just running hot, basically. So rates stay high and money keeps flowing into stocks because the economy keeps pumping. Right. Yeah. It's not an if, Dave. If it passes, when it passes or what version of it passes, because Trump has said if it fails, there's going to be a 68 percent tax increase, which also is just like a made up. He loves making up numbers.

He really does. He loves it. If like, if this bill, if the big beautiful bill fails, you know, that there's going to be something that passes that's maybe a smaller, less beautiful bill, but there's still going to be tax cuts. There's still going to be more spending. They're not going to, they're not going to just say, Oh yeah, just kidding. We don't, we don't want the big beautiful bill anymore.

And how ridiculous is it that we have to keep calling it the big, beautiful bill? Do you know that's what it's actually called? I know. It's like the headline. That's why I wouldn't be saying that if it weren't like actually written into the bill. Those are the things that kind of make me nervous is that like that's where we are right now, right? Like that's where we are. You've read the executive orders, right? It's like they're written by like a high schooler, right?

It's like a high schooler took the concept and then sent it through chat GPT saying, hey, make this sound legally binding. Right. Yeah. Again, I think, I know this might seem counterintuitive, but while the rest of the world is so focused on trading this feud, have the opposite thinking. I love it that everybody's so focused on that.

and not focused on other stuff. So I have less competition now. I have more time to basically trade other stuff that people aren't paying attention to. I will say this. I will continue, for fun, to fast trade Tesla on...

news that hits if I catch it quick enough. So from this point forward, I am going to be watching. Dave said something about you because you told me that you were

that you had puts on tesla um you know while it was dropping but did you buy those before any of this started or was it because of this no uh jordan i actually and i'm so upset on wednesday i went to make a fairly large purchase of tesla puts in anticipation and

Is it because of the rhetoric that, uh, yeah, I, I saw what was, yeah, that makes perfect sense. I was just curious, but, but, but, but they were, no, I didn't buy them. They were too expensive. I thought the premiums were too high and I chickened out and, oh, I was so upset, but I did end up buying them yesterday and it did really well. Yeah. Uh,

the problem is- That's what I was asking. Did you buy them when the feud started or- No, I bought them as it was moving, but before the big hit, before the big hit happened. But I kept them. I kept them today. And the reason why I kept them was strategic and it made sense for me as part of my portfolio because you have to understand something. I have such a large amount of calls in Robinhood and NVIDIA

And I was balancing that with puts in Tesla because if today was an additional escalation of this feud that just shook the market, the puts on Tesla would help kind of even out the losses on all the calls on NVIDIA and HUD. And I went into a massive HUD call position last week. And this is one of my favorite trades, guys.

My trade was not that Robinhood would get added to the S&P tonight after hours. I love this trade so much. My trade was that the market would anticipate the strong possibility of them getting added to the S&P so that I would own these calls in Robinhood all of this week.

exit those calls in the last, I don't know, 15 minutes of today's market. And then, yeah, I would take the gains to play the S&P trade into next week, but I would already crush it this week. And that's exactly what happened on my Robinhood calls. So my NVIDIA calls are not about like this week or anything. I actually think next week might be a really exciting week for NVIDIA. Now, what's really interesting on NVIDIA is this. I knew this would happen.

there's a lot of insider selling this week and it's all normal. It's nothing crazy, right? Like we had the second largest owner of Nvidia sell $150 million a stock. We had Jensen selling a ton of stock. These are just routine sales. These guys own so much stock.

They're always going to be selling to diversify. You know, I think some of these shares are in trust that have to be balanced. So that I knew there would be a lot of selling pressure going into this week. In fact, market makers knew this. I think late last week, they were even preparing for these big sales early this week.

And I love it. I love that downward pressure on NVIDIA because I knew that it was temporary and I knew it would hold the stock down this week. But that selling pressure, I believe, will relieve itself here shortly. It could have been yesterday. It could have been today. It might be early next week. But I...

If you look at the actual narrative, the actual data and everything that's happening with NVIDIA right now, the narrative of the sovereign AI story is just scratching the surface. It's just about to take off. Jensen is in Europe next week.

He's in Paris at Tech Week. He is going to be talking about the sovereign AI build-out in European countries, I believe. And news outlets and Wall Street and investors are going to start talking about this. I sent you guys a tweet talking about the amount of compute that the NVIDIA CEO...

was quoted, I think, at the B of A conference this week that people are not paying enough attention to. Why are they not paying attention to it? They're not paying attention to it because the president of the United States and one of the wealthiest, most powerful businessmen in the world are having a

feud on X, but the CFO of NVIDIA is telling us what they're seeing in terms of compute demand. And it looks like a trillion dollars of NVIDIA build-out. UBS came out and said, hey, this person, what they just said they're seeing at NVIDIA, we believe equates to about a trillion dollars of

in Nvidia revenue based on the thing that this person just said at Nvidia, okay? Beth, and no one's talking about it because they're talking about Trump and Elon, okay? This is what I've been saying for years. My biggest friend in the market is noise. I love nothing more than noise because you know what I don't get distracted by? Noise.

But everyone else does. We got a whole lot of noise yesterday. Yeah. So anyway, oddly, NVIDIA is my trade. That is your Trump trade. On the Elon Trump feud. It's NVIDIA. Actually, you know what? Now, what happens when Trump gets mad at Jensen? Oh, that would be bad.

because we've already seen like he canceled the chinese chips they're not in each other's business every day okay let me tell you the difference dave let me tell you the difference jensen knows what he's doing when it comes to managing his relationship with trump jensen might be better than any ceo that guy is a wizard when it comes to politics jensen

is managing relationships with every president and leader in the world. He's in South Korea. He's in Taiwan. He's in China working Chinese leadership. He's in Europe next week. This guy, I'm telling you, Jensen knows what he's doing. And the other thing is he's intensely focused on NVIDIA. He's not focused on...

trying to do some goal in the US. He's focused on NVIDIA.

Jordan, if there's one CEO that I can sleep well at night knowing that I am unreasonably over-invested in his company, it's Jensen, right? If there's one CEO that I know is unlikely, except for that one picture where he had his hand on the lady's boob that keeps coming out. He asked him to sign it, right? Wasn't he just trying to sign it?

He was signing. Oh, yeah, he was signing. That was the only little hiccup Jensen has ever made. But by the way, you know, there's so many investors that are looking at all these second order trades, the second order AI trades, right? And there's a lot of them. Screw all of them. I'm in some of them, by the way. I'm in some of them. I have the stock, whatever. Screw all of them.

i don't need to go second order here i'm going first order okay because i'm telling you i

I vividly see NVIDIA as a $10 trillion company. I just, I see it. It's right in front of my face. And if I could just time the leaps, if I could just time those moments when it's going to take the step up, because if you look at that NVIDIA chart, it's been flat for so long, right? And there's a good reason why it has been. It hasn't been flat because of technicals. Everyone's like,

It's been flat because if you look at the news, if you look at the narrative over the past seven, eight months, there has always been something to keep NVIDIA down. Some doubt. Do you remember the Chinese AI? There's something that was going to take NVIDIA down. And then we realized, well, that's not really true. But then there's something else. And then there's the ban on China. And then there's always something. At some point,

There's not going to be the next big thing that's going to hold this company down. And it's going to fly. It's going to fly. Okay? Because, again, we've talked about this episode after episode, going back two and a half years since the first week release of ChatGPT. This is a new world order.

Hold on. Is this-- And it's built around intelligence. --Johnson just said that Michael Berry shorted Nvidia with half of his portfolio? Is that even possible? But that was old. Is that old? That's old.

I love it. These are investors that are not understanding that these reports come out and it's based on data that's like 60 days ago or 90 days ago because that's when they have to get released. He could have been out. First of all, let me just keep track of what Michael Berry does. There are people that do. I don't.

If you were trading Michael Berry's ideas the last three years, good for you. I mean, that would not look pretty. Okay. So by the way, we're not financial advisors. We're not saying to trade our ideas, but use us. Like use us for inspiration and do your own homework and assess your own risk. My risk is way higher than yours. Please never mirror our trades, but like just do your own homework, guys. But guys, I'm telling you,

don't let the noise like block you from this. It's too big. Oh, I want to say one thing that you guys don't know yet. I made a seven figure trade last night, last night in the wee hours of the morning, I transferred seven figures into Hong Kong dollars and invested in a company that is not a tech company that

That is on the Hong Kong exchange that will be revealed in our next episode. If you guys are okay with that. So that's intriguing.

Oh, yeah, it's crazy. This could be one of the nuttiest investments I've ever made. It's a pure social ARB investment. It is an old school social ARB trade, but it's seven figures. And it's not a tech company? What? You said it's not a tech company? It's not a tech company. Wait, hold on. I was miles away. What happened? What is it Hong Kong? I traded.

through my Schwab global account, I transferred seven figures into Hong Kong dollars and I traded an obscure, uh, non-tech company that trades on the Hong Kong exchange. And it will be revealed on our next episode. Is it one that, uh, that they were talking about a viral moment on the today show a couple of days ago?

I have no idea. I have no idea. And I will not, I will not deny or confirm any guests that you have on this episode because I, I want to share it with our community first. I'll prop, I'll probably end up putting it in our discord for the, for the guys in our discord. No, you're talking seven figures of us dollars or seven figures of us dollars. It ended up being like five, 7 million Hong Kong dollars. I don't know. I don't know. It's,

Anyway, I just closed my eyes and did it. Now, we'll talk about it next week. I'll tell you guys once we wrap the episode here today because it's a fun one. How big of a fee is that conversion? Is it like a fixed fee or is it a percentage? So I think the biggest hit, Jordan, is when I transfer the currency. The currency hit on Schwab Global is that it's, I don't know, I don't even, I closed my eyes. Is it just that rate is like not competitive? Yeah.

There are better ways to do that than letting Schwab handle it. They get you. They get you because they know they have you. And Schwab Global is not for active traders. I'm sure if you're on interactive brokers, you can get a much better... So if you were doing it over and over again, you'd want to go with iBroker, but for one time, maybe it's fine? I only trade these international stocks maybe twice a year usually. Yeah.

But once you get your currency, because you have to trade in the local currency. And once you do that, it's not expensive at all to buy the stock. It's like almost the same as here in the US. It's like nothing. Most people don't understand that if...

And Schwab is the only way to do this, I think. I think there's like interactive brokers, but it's just so confusing for me. If you have a Schwab account, you could then open up a Schwab Global account and you could associate those accounts and you could trade

almost any country in the world that has a stock exchange. So you could trade foreign securities through Schwab. It's actually really, it's actually really cool. And I started doing it years ago. It's not that difficult. It's all online. I mean, just you do the little currency trade, then you do the little, you know, then you buy the, you look up the ticker, they have a ticker lookup, you could type in the company on the phone. Now there's certain countries where we can't do it. Like

South Korea, they won't allow Americans to trade. And China, you can't trade in China, but you can do Hong Kong. - You can't trade South Korea?

What? You can't trade South Korea? No. So U.S. citizens cannot trade in South Korea. You have to go to South Korea. I think it's South. Yeah, you have to go to South Korea and you have to get like a license, some type of registration with the government to be able to trade. It's really complicated. I did not know that. That sounds unnecessary. Yeah, I won't be doing that. And I probably won't be doing the trade. So I don't know how interesting of an episode this is because it sounds so complicated. Oh, it's interesting. It will be interesting.

Dave, I will let you title the episode so that it doesn't seem obscure so people will actually watch it. Yeah, we're going to call it my insane million dollar trade. Oh, man.

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Oh, man. Okay. So let's talk. Can we talk about Robin Hood for a second here? Tonight, they're going to... What do you think? I already disclosed all the stuff I have. Yeah. What do you think is going to happen? Do you think they're going to be added or not? I think they're going to be added. You do? But they might not be. Who knows? I kind of think that they're not going to be. They'll probably get it the next time.

This is, I think, only the second time they've qualified, and it just seems like S&P loves to drag their heels on things. It's like being in the Hall of Fame where they purposely don't put you in the first few times. Is that what you're saying? Probably, because Robinhood is one of these highly talked about stocks, it actually helps their news cycle. More people are talking about S&P inclusion now, and they'll get to talk about it again the next time. Because, you know, there's no reason we'd ever talk about the Hall of Fame unless someone was...

you know, someone interesting was being denied. Um,

The only other name that I've heard thrown out is Viva Systems, but I've never even heard of them before, but it's a similar market cap. I wouldn't be talking about the S&P if that were all that were being in consideration. Remember when Tesla finally got added? That was a big deal. Yeah. Well, the thing is, they're saying that if Robinhood gets added, it's actually like a lot of Robinhood stock that will need to be purchased. So it's kind of a big deal. I am going to... Listen, I

I'm going to just guess that it's a little higher than 50-50 that Robinhood gets added. So for me, it's worthwhile, even beyond the options I have now that expire today, to buy even more options in Robinhood for next week. Like, I have to. Robinhood's my stock, man. They can't not play that. I mean, I already have an insane amount of Robinhood stock.

but I have to also be levered in options. I have to be levered up. I just have to. And if it doesn't hit and I lose, by the way, I played it last time and lost all my money. If it doesn't happen, I am investing an appropriate amount in options. And in my head, I am totally fine with getting zeroed out on that, which I will if it doesn't hit. Now, is there one of those triple leveraged Robinhood funds the way Tesla and some of the others have?

I don't know, but Dave, I would rather, I already have my Robin hood that's going to be there for years and years, like my equity, but I would rather just invest in options and know that, Hey, if it hits, I'm going to make this much. If it doesn't hit,

I'm losing it all. And when the options that I bought for next week, I think if it hits, I'm going to make meaningfully more than two X. So if I think there's a 50, 50 chance of them getting included, it's like a pretty good investment because like 50, 50, I make three or four times my money, 50, 50, I lose all my money. I'll take that bet all day long. So I think I like the odds of,

uh of playing it into next by the way we're not financial but do not like guys this is this is i always say investing is not again this is about as close as being speculative gambling as it gets in our world playing an s&p inclusion and i see there is a leverage robin hood it's r-o-b-n according to pedro yeah but i don't want the thing about that is that you leverage your losses too right so and with the options trade chris knows his downside

I know my downside and I'm willing to take a hundred percent hit on the downside on that option. Happy to take it. Okay. But my way, way, way bigger trade here is NVIDIA guys. I'm telling you, I think I hit the end of the internet with NVIDIA research and I can't find anything negative. I,

I actually cannot find negative. In fact, do you remember when we were all talking about how inference was going to take over and the ASIC platform of chips, the chips that Amazon makes and Google makes and like Grok, not Grok, Elon's Grok, but G-R-O-Q, Chamath's Grok. And we were worried that that was going to be the play, not the NVIDIA style chips or

Well, now, if you look at the research and what people are saying at all the hyperscalers and all of the AI engineers that are building out, they're all saying that going five, six, seven years down, that the ASIC chips are probably going to be capped at 50% of chip demand. That about 50%, even as we move entirely to inference down the road,

that 50% is still going to be GPUs because of the type of inference. There's a type of inference that still needs with a GPU, even at today's standards is much more efficient.

right uh than the asic uh chip type platform so nvidia is so durable here it's so durable and but beyond all of that as we know it's not even about chips anymore they're they're literally the infrastructure company the software everything behind all of the ai build out now i've never seen anything like this jordan have you ever as an engineer

I know you've been probably following this story over the past few months about how NVIDIA is evolving. Have you ever seen a company with this type of chokehold? And by the way, we're not even talking about the fact that

when it comes down to allocation right out of Taiwan semi who gets all the allocation going 10 years out it's like they have a choke hold on the allocation of the fab them the fab itself but have you ever seen anything like this where we're going to see this much of an expansion of an infrastructure project and you know I mean so originally the the original comparison with Cisco but

I don't think that's a fair comparison at all. It's not. Because what Cisco did was replicable, right? Yeah. And got commoditized to where it's not really looking the same for NVIDIA right now. No, it's not. And you know what? Cisco was one of the 12 stories that over the past eight months, it kept NVIDIA down for a little bit. That's right. Everybody made the Cisco comparison. Yeah.

But this is why, guys, it's so important. If you don't have a counter narrative, if you don't have a short story, then there's no reason to be long. Because the only reason why you're long is because there's another side to the story that you disagree with. That once that information gets disseminated that you're right and they're wrong.

Right. The stock reacts in your favor. So you actually want to invest when there's another side to the story that people are paying attention to that you believe is wrong. Because if everybody thought NVIDIA was the play, if there were no doubters, if there was no short narrative,

That's a problem. OK, what are you trading against? What is it that you know? What is it that your research has led you to believe that others haven't figured out yet? So like I think investors sometimes get scared when there's a counter story, a short side narrative. But that's what you want. You want to find out what that is. And then you want to come to terms with the fact that it's wrong.

Like that, that's, if you can't do that, there's no trade. There's no trade. My research has led me to believe that every short narrative on NVIDIA right now is wrong. Maybe I'm wrong. You could be. I'm not betting against NVIDIA though. Not right now. No, no.

um okay so should we take a quick look at the other been any good comments we should get to here guys it's a friday show we should touch on comments we've had a lot of comments but we're already mentioned that we need to address wait two things amd ai day so amd is interesting um

Oh, Jordan, AMD's interesting. But before we get to AMD, one last thing on NVIDIA. This Chinese chip that has been rumored to be approved, backdoor approved already, okay, by the administration. Yeah. Reports that...

There could be, did you see how much volume of that ship potentially China has contracted for between now and the end of the year? It looks like upwards of $8 to $10 billion have been contracted and is going into mass production to be delivered in 2025. So that could be as much as $8 to $10 billion of revenue that is not on the books right now,

Because Nvidia has canceled all that Chinese revenue that they might bring back into revenue projections this year. Supposedly, this ship's going into production. Also, last night, last night,

I saw a rumor that the Hawaii, I'm not going to say this name wrong. What's the Chinese chip maker that everyone's afraid of? Hawaii? Huawei? Huawei? Yeah, that their anti-NVIDIA chip is delayed. Why am I frozen? Why am I frozen at the most important times? Dave needs to make you like a little sheet that says what you need to do

as your boot up process before the show. And part of that is to just turn it off and turn it back on again. I know I need to turn my computer off and on. Did you ever upgrade from an Intel-based Mac mini? Did you get an N-series? That's your problem too. I got the one that you had me get. It's 2025. We heard you get that in like 2020.

has it been the five years already yes i have told you a million times to get an m series mac mini it will solve all the problems wait i thought i bought that when you told me to buy it i i don't know did you are you using an m series or using the intel just click on the apple and say about this mac and you should be able to see quickly it'll say the year you bought it right on the screen okay i mean

It should tell you the architecture too. Okay, I'm using an M1 8 gig. Oh, okay. That's newer than I thought. Yeah, the problem is that I didn't reboot it before the episode. You should just turn it off. You don't use it like...

All the time. I know. Here's the thing. The Chinese anti-NVIDIA chip by Hawaii supposedly is delayed. They are not going to start mass manufacturing that to the end of this year. So, and I also heard another rumor that the Chinese hyperscalers are

are not wanting to switch over. They want to stay with Nvidia. They're not switching over, okay? So like the biggest concern for Nvidia right now might not even be a concern. But Jordan, I agree that there's so much demand right now with this AI build out that AMD just by being around

Well, just being around, but there's, and I forgot the name of the open source project. I'm sure some people in the chat will know, but there's an open source project that basically lets you run LLMs on top of like an AMD architecture. Now, I don't know if any, I doubt any hyperscalers are doing any of this, but I know for sure that, you know, some homegrown projects use this. So it's being used and people are buying the chips because they can't get a hold of NVIDIA chips.

Also, guys, one other trade, we talked about this before, is one of my favorite Trump tariff trades, Boeing.

I recently read, you know, obviously this Chinese negotiation is going to happen. I think we can all agree that it's almost a guarantee, almost a guarantee that they're going to come to a solution. Everybody's going to win. Okay. We desperately need, we desperately need the critical elements from China. In fact, like,

The whole world needs them. China really does hold those cards. And Trump, I think at this point understands that. But you know what China wants? It's really interesting. They want Boeing planes. I mean, they want them. They want Boeing planes. Guess what? We're happy to sell them. Do you know what Trump wants to sell more than anything in the world? Let me just tell you something. Trump is like a used car salesman when it comes to Boeing planes.

he will sell you a boeing plane whether you want it or not if you're already wanting a boeing plane i can't even imagine how many boeing planes trump is going to sell china okay as part of this negotiation so i think i'm going to add to my boeing position because that i feel that that news release is it it's as close to a guarantee as it gets

Now, we could debate the degree to which Trump is going to, you know, open up chips and stuff to China more than he already has, supposedly, with this backdoor kind of approval of the new NVIDIA chip that's downgraded. But you know he's going to sell them the Boeing planes, right? 100%. He loves selling planes. Loves it.

He also loves, except if you happen to be a country with an extra luxury plane laying around, he's happy to take that off your hands too. Do you think Trump...

is getting a spiff on every Boeing plane. He's like, like a cash in fist bonus by Boeing for everyone that he gets. You remember when I used to sell cars, we used to get this thing called cash in fist. Saturday mornings, they would get all the car salesmen out and they'd take out a wad of cash. And in addition to your commissions, that day for every one of the seven series that you sold or whatever we're trying to push that day, you would get like $1,500 cash

cash and fist and they would literally roll out so would that qualify today for a no tax on tips um either that or they you know boeing's just buying trump coin that seems like the good backdoor way to get money into the administration

Are you doing anything? We have WWDC on Monday. Are you doing anything to celebrate? I feel like it's more of a you thing, Dave. You get way more hype than I do for that. I'm going to say something. I think Tim Cook apples boring with products.

- What do you think, what? - He's a logistics guy. He's the product's core. - But there's no exciting products coming out of Apple. Like I just don't think. - Well, Jordan, Apple is working on the humanoid. It's their number one project from what I heard. It's their number one secret project. They have a humanoid, the humanoid is cooking.

I've heard them. I've heard rumors that they've been telling recruits. I'm going to say my phone's been the same for like a decade now. Oh, you're going to get a brand new operating system, iOS 26. That's what they're calling it, not 19. Can't wait for that. Can't wait for an operating system. It's going to be more glass-like. When you move it, it's going to react to the light in the room.

Dave will be the last guy on earth in 2040 that's still getting excited by every Apple announcement. Tim Cook is a great CEO. I've got nothing against him, but he's not... Obviously. Just obviously. Although, I feel like they've fallen behind on coming out with the big new innovative thing quickly, but they've never been the first to market. They didn't have the first smartphone. They just had the first iPhone. They made...

And like Vision Pro is an amazing product. It's just too expensive. They were ahead of the curve there. They didn't follow the Apple playbook of waiting until there was adoption and people were using headsets anyway to come out with a headset that was so much better. And they're not gonna be the first robot either. They're not gonna be the first humanoid. The other thing is that they have no ability to keep a secret anymore because it's like MacRumors knows literally everything that's gonna happen.

i don't know jordan i think i think everybody gives their leaks to mark german at bloomberg and then every other article is citing mark's reporting on everything yeah like all the youtubers it's like oh well mark once again revealed that this is what this is what's coming out i i gotta give them i can tell you every single thing that's going to be on this new operating system though they've done i already know what the iphone looks like there's

There's not as much excitement when everything gets pumped about it, babe. Are you pumped? No, no, it's not. I don't think it's going to be a game changing WWDC. I was more excited about last year's and then they actually delivered on what they were promising. Let's rewind that. They delivered a promise of something that was going to be amazing and then they've delayed it indefinitely. Yeah.

that smart Siri. And we're not expecting to see any new feature announcements for Siri this year either.

And that's quite honestly insane. The problem that Apple has, guys, is the same issue that Google has. People don't really fully understand when we talk about Google and all the risk of why they were slow to release AI because they were super concerned about taking business away from Google search. And they've admitted that.

Apple has the same problem. Apple gets tens and tens of billions of dollars a year from Google because of the amount of search revenue that Apple sends through Google. So it's equally risky for Apple to go all in on AI and potentially risk that revenue. So people don't discuss that.

Or doing anything. Look, I mean, you've got an opinion on this and it's correct, but I think it's wrong also, Chris, because look, here's the deal.

LLMs don't make any money. Like, I mean, you can get some revenue, but they're not profitable. There's no real path to profitability. Absolutely untrue, Jordan. You're wrong. You're wrong. I'm not wrong. How much money does OpenAI lose? We don't even know. We don't even know. Okay, Jordan. But we know that they're not profitable because of how...

Sam talks about the business. Like he says that like we're wasting money because people say thank you and all this stuff. Jordan, they're just getting started. Obviously they're not a problem. OpenAI right now, right now is doing between 10 and 20,

billion dollars a year right in but they're spending way more than that no they're getting revenue no i'm not saying that they don't make money i'm saying they don't make money like they don't have profit hold on hold on but do startups ever have a profit

hold on jordan okay we're literally building out the largest infrastructure the world right ever is doing the same thing right and so that's my point is that google isn't putting this as like the front facing product in their company only because they're still making money doing search hold on but jordan you cannot tell me that there is not a very clear sight line to profitability with llms

It is crystal clear. The revenue is outrageous. And we're just getting started. It's a lot of revenue, right? But people are paying monthly fees, but the monthly fees don't cover the compute that they're using. And so my question about all of this has always been, what is the true cost to actually make a query, right? To actually make, like if you have your

AI bot or your AI agent or whatever, and you tell it to like go do some research, then it comes back in like 10, 15 minutes. How much money did that actually cost? What is the true, what's the true cost to use these things? And we don't know that yet. No, Jordan, the compute is amazing.

meaningfully more expensive today than it will ever be. Crazy more expensive today than it will ever be. The one thing that we know for a fact is that- Because energy costs aren't going down, Chris. So energy costs are going to continue to go up. Now you can say that GPU efficiency can continue to go up. Yes, it will. GPU efficiency will get better. That's probably true. But the cost of energy will continue to go up. As we invest and create more energy, the price of

energy per kilowatt hour is you're gonna have to amortize all these crazy facilities that are being built. Oh,

Okay, yes, but listen, the compute has been and will continue. Look, Amazon just lowered the compute costs last night on their H100 by 45% across all of AWS, every region, they said. Every single region just went down by 45% last night at AWS, okay? The compute is going to continue to get less. And the fact, let me just say something, at this early of a stage,

It is actually mind blowing, mind blowing that a company like OpenAI is generating 10 to 20 billion in top line revenue from mostly from $20 a month subscriptions. The fact that we are this early, we're not even starting the first inning barely of this super cycle. And they're already at that level of revenue. If you look at what's going to happen in

with AI over the next 10 years on the company side, on the actual commercial side. - No, no, no, no, I'm not disagreeing with you. My point is don't count Google out just because-- - I'm not counting them out. - Yes you are. Every time you talk about Google, you hate on them. - No, I'm not. I'm telling you, I think Google might have-- - They're my favorite AI play. They're my favorite AI play besides probably Nvidia. - Okay, well let me say this. - And you'll be happy to hear that eventually Gemini will be integrated into iOS.

- They probably will not announce it at WWDC because of the whole court thing right now, trying to figure out the Google payment for Google search, but eventually Google and Gemini will be embedded as an alternative to ChatGPT built into the iPhone.

Of course it will be. Of course it will. Listen, Jordan, I believe that as of right now, Google might have the best AI in the world and might have the very best, get even better. The actual spread might get even wider in the next few years. I think if you were to look forward 15 years, I think Google might be my number one. Okay, my number one. What I'm saying is, what I'm saying is that,

when you have 80 to 85% of a company's revenue generated from search dollars, my research has led me to believe that

one, they are going to lose a meaningful amount of that foot traffic. I don't know if it's 20% or 30% or 40% to competitors, especially chat GPT, because I've seen it happen with me. And I don't think you're wrong. I just think that they have to play a balancing act and not just throw out all of this search revenue. Right. So they've got to, they've got to figure out how to do both. Well, it's a hard problem to solve. It's a hard problem to solve in the short run. I,

what i'm saying is i think i think google's done a lot of really interesting things with ai they are innovative and i think they will find a way to balance and for the record google was not a profitable company either for three full years before they figured out how to turn turn profit and amazon guess how long amazon operated before they had a profit according to ai nine years

Nine years, yeah. I don't think it's unusual that OpenAI is spending more than they make. My point isn't to say that OpenAI won't be profitable one day. My point is, I don't think we really know what the... Because these people, they're paying $20. How much are they actually taxing? How much are they using? I don't know. But if you start to put serious work on these things, what's the true cost of compute when you start to put agents into businesses and things like that? I just don't think we know that yet.

I don't think we need to know it. I don't think it matters right now. Right now, I don't think it matters. You know why, Jordan? I'm going to go back to an example you'll appreciate, Robin Hood. If you go back to what Robin Hood was doing

the first five, six years that it launched. It was insane, right? The amount of money they were spending to acquire customers and actually manage that company when they were making very, very little money, okay? Very little money. It was a long-term mindset. You know why? Because Robinhood knew that the ultimate value

of owning the financial means to a billion people, right? Ultimately, it would take care of itself. And if you believe- Yeah, it's a long game, right? So with that, the game is you get people onto your platform and then as their net worth grows over time, boom, like, you know. And for the record, Robinhood took 11 years to become profitable. Yeah. Yeah.

It would concern me right now if OpenAI was profitable. Do you know why? No, I don't disagree with you, Chris. And that wasn't the point I articulated poorly. So I don't think that that's a problem. I just don't know what the true cost is going to be when this starts to get rolled out into trying to replace people's jobs and things like that.

So let me counteract that. I agree with you. I'm going to answer that by saying whatever the true cost is, Jordan, I believe that the value of the product is so high that the end user will be willing to pay that, whatever that cost is eventually, plus some, because the industry of intelligence, even the little that we've seen right now, is so unbelievably productive and efficient. Right?

right? And we're in such early, we're in the earliest days. We're in the days when this is so inefficient, the way that we're operating this industry of Intel, it's so inefficient. Nobody has synthesized any of this yet, even remotely well, right? It could be 10 years before the commercial world really gets good at synthesizing this industry and productizing it so that

so that the output of the demand is done efficiently.

But whatever it is, we're going to pay for it. We're going to pay for it because you know what's really expensive, Jordan? What's exceptionally expensive is humans, human work. What we pay a human to do the dumbest things, we're paying so much money right now to have people do the thing that AI can do so easily. I mean, Dave, would you agree? Some of it, right? So some of it LLMs are good at, right?

you know just like base data entry and things like that doing known tasks but yeah the creative a lot of it well for llms to do at this point i i would i would say a lot of it llms are better at doing most things including today's thumbnail by the way i just said well anything any no trump trump fighting that's art that's like that's known already jordan if you get on google's new text to video generator that came out a few weeks ago

And you don't piss your pants. You're like, if this thing could do what I just saw it do. What are you talking about? VO3? Yeah. If it could do what I just saw it do, I'm pretty sure it could do most of the world. But that's why Google is my favorite. Jordan.

Deep Mind. All right. Have you guys seen the Deep Mind movie yet that I told you to watch? What was it called? On Demis Hassabis, the documentary. I've been asking you to watch it for like two months now. Just Google the Demis Hassabis movie. No, you all have to watch Mountainhead, and I made it about an hour into that yesterday. I couldn't even make it through the plot. Okay, hold on. I'm not even kidding. The Thinking Game. What is going on?

Jordan, how have you not watched The Thinking Game yet? It is such an extraordinary documentary. It's about Google DeepMind and Demis Hassabis. I'm going to tell you right now, nobody has more respect for that man and that team than me. I hope that Google gives him the CEO position eventually, okay? Because that guy is insane. That's running DeepMind and AI at Google. That guy's insane.

That guy is awesome. So I am a huge believer in the technology at Google, but I am a huge doubter when it comes to that incumbent company's ability to productize, commercialize, actually make things happen. And they must be the slowest company on earth when it comes to making decisions and actually doing anything.

anything when it comes to actually monetizing their technology they're they're terrible they're terrible at it they'll fix it eventually because they have a big slow company they're they're a big apple has the same problem they're big but do you know what happens they can't they can't make a radical change because it would unravel everything that they've built

but dave do you know what changes you know what makes a big slow company change when they have a reckoning they have to learn the hard way and what i've been saying is google has to have their reckoning before we can actually see the rebuild happen okay and i think a reckoning is likely coming before

the Google that me and you want to see Jordan like I think that reckoning is going to happen because they just can't get out of their own way I just think that the whole if the entire management team isn't meeting weekly about this and trying to figure out what their path forward is then it'd be insane I think they have to be doing that well Jordan I saw an interview with Google CEO this week and I was like I can't wait he's gonna have me yeah it was so pitiful it was

He was on Lex Friedman, by the way. I just started it yesterday, but I haven't finished it yet. I was like, this is not... They have not learned their lesson yet. I walked away going, this company...

They have not learned their lesson yet. You know why? They haven't had their reckoning yet because they've always been saved by something. You know what saved them this last quarter, Jordan? You know what saved them was their investment in, what was it? They had an investment that did like 8 billion of off-the-book profits that hid money.

The issue that Google is happening? Someone in the comments. I don't know. They're invested in all sorts of stuff. No, no, no. This is not just a... Guys, someone tell us in the comments, what was the one-time gain that Google had this last quarter? Yeah, I don't know. It was like an $8 billion windfall.

Waymo. Was there a distribution or something like that? They have a billion dollar investment in SpaceX. They had a markup

Oh, okay, they just marked their books up. Jordan, it was the most massive markup. I think it was an $8 billion profit markup that saved their quarter. The valuation doubled from $175 billion to $350 billion. And that is what saved Google this quarter. And so because they're able to hide, they just barely scrape by every quarter, they haven't had the reckoning.

I think it's coming. I think it's coming. I'm worried about Apple too, because when it comes to companies that are slow moving and haven't really innovated, I mean, they're innovating, but not really. And they're all, they are also kind of paralyzed because they,

They can't really come out with a brand new iPhone, although they do a flip version that will be coming, a foldable version that's coming next year or the year after. But they can't really make a dramatic change because everybody loves the iPhone. And if they upset that balance, this new operating system, what if people hate the design as much as they hated iOS 7 when it changed everything?

Dave, I truly do believe for Apple, and people will rip me for this. I mean, you know, my whole world is humanoids. I haven't seen anything in Apple. But again, I do know that they believe they're making big strides with their humanoid platform internally. They are in the pole position for the home humanoid. And the reason why I keep saying this

Because I think about humanoids 24-7. When it comes to the home humanoid, you basically have a piece of telecommunications equipment that is wrapped in sensors, video cameras, and audio equipment. And that is a really scary thing to bring into your home, your family's conversations, your most secret conversations. There's only one company that I could think of that...

that could come anywhere close to gaining the consumer's trust when it comes to privacy in that setting, and it's Apple. So if, and I know it's a big if, if Apple is able to at some point in the next eight years, eight, nine years, actually release a home humanoid

I think that could be the savior for that company. And I know it's not going to happen for a while because there's so many safety issues involved and the tech isn't quite there yet. And Apple needs it to be like, but I think they're playing the long game. And I think that part of the reason they are so secure, security focused and privacy first is because they know that their future depends on it.

Where Google has the reputation of, well, we read every Gmail so that we can serve you better advertising. Apple is like, you want to opt out of letting every app on your phone track you? Yeah, we have a setting for that. And we turn it on by default.

And Dave also, while Apple hasn't really had its financial reckoning yet, let's be honest, the auto program that they worked on for like eight years was a huge internal embarrassment for them. And also the headset that me and you,

I still love it. I think it's maybe the most interesting piece of technology that I've ever witnessed in my life. It's the most interesting, but the least used piece of a technology that I own. Every time I put it on, I'm like, I should use this more. And then 30 minutes later, it's like, yeah, I know why I don't use this. It's clunky. It's just sitting on you.

I sold mine like a month and a half after I bought it for not too much less than I paid for it. I love it, but it's just for whatever, sometimes for whatever reason, the product market fit just doesn't work. And it just doesn't work. It's undebatable.

It doesn't work. And even the smart glasses that have stripped down technology, I just don't see a use for that. I don't want to wear glasses all day, every day. You could probably fit a lot of technology into those glasses you're wearing right now, Chris. I don't want to wear glasses. Well, you get used to them. I'll tell you that. You get used to them.

I actually hate taking them on and off because they're just reading glasses. So I just bought the kind that has like split. So like the top part, I can see. Bifocals? Yeah. No, no, not. They're bifocal readers. Yeah. And the bottom part is the reader part. So I haven't gotten them yet, but the same glasses that that way, because I hate like, oh, I, like, I don't, you know, and then I got to read or see this and I got to put them back on. Um,

I'm just waiting for augmented reality contact lenses. The technology is being worked on. They just project the image directly into your retina. All right. So let's go hood, man. I just checked my stocks and this is what I was hoping for. And this is why I didn't exit out of my options because I was feeling like

I was feeling that hood would start to gain momentum in the last half of today, going into this S and P thing tonight. Listen, this S and P deal is a big deal. Hood has got to be one of the biggest retail trader stocks. Everyone's been talking about this. Everything's up though. Tesla's up 5%. Palantir's up 5%. Amazon's up 2%. Google's up 3%. Hood 5%. I need more hood. I really need more hood.

Look at Elf getting back up there at 117. Look at Elf. Gotta love it. Got to love it, man.

uh let's give everybody after everything that we all went through as investors yesterday wouldn't it be nice to have like just a weekend an up friday let's just close this thing out let's just close it out today and have everybody have a good weekend man i think we we deserve it we're ending in the right direction we deserve it we deserve it i really hope this market just ends strong like i feel like just

mentally, I know I need it. So I think everyone needs it, man. Oh man. And then let's get, and then we'll really have a rocking weekend with hood and the SMP. That would be exciting. That'd be exciting. Although I wish I had more hood. I feel like I don't have enough for it to hit the SMP right now. I actually have a zoom with South Korea that I have to get on here in a few minutes. Um,

uh talking about robots so all right i'm gonna talk that's how you're so knowledgeable about what it takes to trade stock in south korea i'm talking to south koreans about robots uh that's pretty much my day now talking to someone about robots so you might if you're going to be on your uh setup you might want to restart your computer that's actually a great idea

Why not North Korea, James wants to know? Because I wouldn't have done that, Jordan, and I really do need it. Are there any more really good comments that we need to address here? I'm just looking through. You have to reboot. You don't even have time for your meeting. It's already 1230. All right. We've done this for an hour and a half.

Dave, are you in town next week? Can we do this Hong Kong trade? Yes, we can do the Hong Kong trade. We can also do a Robin Hood show and an NVIDIA show because those are the stocks that I like to talk about.

i don't know what hong kong trade is that seems really boring to me but it's not boring it's the opposite of bore i will promise you i promise you one thing it'll be our most watched episode of the day it is not boring that's all i'm gonna say it is not boring it's not nvidia tesla or robin hood but it is definitely not boring all right well i'll show up and hopefully everyone else will too

You got to give Chris a chance on this one. By the way, to everyone watching today, thank you. I feel like we have more people watching today than we've had in a really long time. Obviously, it's a big week in the market. Did you remember to tweet this? No, I did not. Well, we could have even had more. Yeah, I did not. Twitter is kind of killing it right now with...

I think the Twitter traffic went up massively yesterday. I heard it hit an all-time high yesterday, right? Oh, yeah. Which makes sense. All right, guys. Dave? All right. That's it. We're done, Money. We'll see you next time.