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cover of episode How is Israel's bombing affected Iran's economy?

How is Israel's bombing affected Iran's economy?

2025/6/16
logo of podcast World Business Report

World Business Report
AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
A
Ami Daniel
D
Doang Chai
H
Humayun Falakshahi
R
Rachel Winter
R
Rayong Kitapol
S
Sharon Backhouse
T
Tanakhorn Kasatsrawan
T
Tehran市民
Topics
Tehran市民: 作为德黑兰的市民，我深感恐惧和无助。连日的空袭让我们的生活陷入混乱，我们害怕入睡，担心炸弹会落在我们头上。多年来，我们经历了抗议被镇压、货币崩溃、工资缩水，现在还要担心生命安全。即使这个政权压迫我们，我们也绝不会让以色列来决定我们的命运。这种恐惧和绝望的情绪笼罩着整个城市，我们渴望和平与安全。 Humayun Falakshahi: 作为原油市场 Kepler 的首席研究分析师，我认为以色列的袭击行动经过精心计算。目前，袭击主要针对伊朗国内市场的基础设施，这可能是为了向伊朗领导层发出警告，展示以色列有能力打击更重要的目标。虽然这些袭击对伊朗国内市场造成了一定的影响，但对国际市场的影响相对较小，因为伊朗的天然气主要在国内消耗。然而，如果以色列升级行动，袭击伊朗的石油和天然气生产设施，或者伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡，那么全球能源市场将面临严重的冲击，油价可能会飙升至三位数以上。当然，美国也会权衡利弊，尽量限制冲突对全球经济的影响。 Ami Daniel: 作为航运分析公司 Windward 的 CEO，我观察到，自从敌对行动开始以来，霍尔木兹海峡的 GPS 干扰明显增多。这可能是伊朗采取的一种防御措施，试图干扰导弹的定位系统。然而，这种干扰也影响了通过该海峡的船只，导致航运放缓。值得注意的是，伊朗自身也依赖石油出口，因此不希望过度干扰航运。但数据显示，由于多种因素的综合影响，伊朗的石油出口已经出现放缓的迹象。这表明，以色列的空袭和相关的干扰行动，正在对伊朗的经济命脉产生实际的影响。 Rachel Winter: 作为 Killick & Co 的合伙人兼投资经理，我认为目前布伦特原油价格的上涨幅度尚未达到恐慌的程度。但如果霍尔木兹海峡的航运受到进一步的限制，那么油价仍有上涨的潜力。总的来说，中东地区的紧张局势对全球经济产生了一定的影响，但市场尚未出现全面的恐慌。我们将继续关注事态的发展，并评估其对全球经济和金融市场的影响。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter explores the impact of Israeli airstrikes on Iranian citizens and its economy, focusing on the disruption caused by the attacks on energy infrastructure and the potential implications for global oil markets. The analysis includes perspectives from a research analyst on the crude oil market and the potential implications for global oil prices.
  • Israeli airstrikes target Iranian energy infrastructure, mainly impacting the domestic market.
  • Attacks on gas processing plants and fuel depots cause disruptions but don't significantly affect international markets.
  • Iran's oil production and exports are substantial, representing a significant share of global supply and Chinese imports.
  • Potential escalation of attacks could target major gas fields or the Kharg oil island, leading to severe economic consequences.
  • The Strait of Hormuz, a crucial shipping point, faces disruption due to electronic interference, impacting global oil trade.

Shownotes Transcript

Many of the people of Tehran have been heading out of the city, while social media videos show the lines of cars stretching into the distance, as many thousands of citizens speak of massive disruption and a fear of Israeli airstrikes. Ed Butler hears about people in Iran and looks at the economic impact of the conflict inflicted on the country's economy.

Also, we hear from Thailand as the latest deadline for US President Donald Trump’s increased tariffs on US imports looms.

And why the Canary Islands and other parts of Spain are protesting against tourism.