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cover of episode Why are global markets so quiet?

Why are global markets so quiet?

2025/6/20
logo of podcast World Business Report

World Business Report
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People
A
Adam Lindquist
B
Brian Trusty
C
Chris Lowe
D
Dauda Sembene
G
Gillian Tett
J
Jessie Benson
R
Roger Hearing
S
Simon Geale
S
Stephanie Oppel
无
无发言人
Topics
Roger Hearing: 近期全球市场出人意料地平静，但这可能反而令人担忧。虽然世界动荡，但股市、能源价格和利率都保持在正常范围内，这种平静可能掩盖了潜在的风险。 Gillian Tett: 我认为市场平静的原因有几个。首先，投资者可能认为特朗普的威胁不会兑现。其次，关税和移民政策的影响需要一段时间才能在数据中体现出来。第三，投资者可能因为信息过载而感到困惑，选择观望。但最重要的是，我认为我们正面临着一个非常脆弱的局面，一旦出现新的冲击，整个市场情绪可能会崩溃。我担心的是，市场面临的冲击正在加速，可能很快就会出现灾难性崩溃。市场更像是叠叠乐游戏，不断移除积木，最终可能导致整个结构崩溃。关税迫使企业重新调整供应链，面临巨大的不确定性，劳动力驱逐可能导致通货膨胀，债务水平不断上升。这些因素加在一起，可能会导致市场崩溃。 Chris Lowe: 我认为市场对世界动荡变得麻木，市场波动因此减缓，因为风险尚未爆发。交易员减少了杠杆，不再激进，这让人们感到放松。此外，企业利润持续良好，这对股票市场至关重要，美国的企业利润正处于历史高位。

Deep Dive

Shownotes Transcript

Global markets, including the US, have been quietly calm, although there have been warning signs of looming risks and uncertainty after Donald Trump’s “liberation day” tariffs announcement. What’s behind such market “silence”? Roger Hearing hears from Gillian Tett, the chair of the Editorial Board of the Financial Times and the Provost of Kings College Cambridge, who has been writing about this.

And how are businesses navigating global sourcing and supply chain risks and disruptions? A Global Sourcing Risk Index, produced by Proxima and Oxford Economics, shows how much business leaders still need to do.

Also, a group of economists, backed by the Vatican, are calling for a reshaping of the international financial system to help developing countries that are heavily in debt and struggling to finance important social issues in their countries like healthcare and education.