Deep Dive
What were the key highlights of Salesforce's FY25Q3 earnings report?
Salesforce's FY25Q3 revenue was $9.44 billion, an 8% year-over-year increase, surpassing expectations of $9.347 billion. Subscription revenue reached $8.88 billion, up 9% YoY. GAAP operating margin was 20%, exceeding the expected 19%. GAAP net income was $1.527 billion, a 7.95% YoY increase, though adjusted EPS of $2.41 slightly missed the $2.45 forecast due to strategic investment losses. AI transactions over $1 million grew threefold, and the company reaffirmed its FY25 revenue guidance of $37.8-$38 billion.
Why did the U.S. unemployment rate rise despite strong non-farm payroll growth in October?
The U.S. unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.2% in October, even as non-farm payrolls added 227,000 jobs, the largest increase in six months. Analysts suggest that while job growth was robust, the rise in unemployment may reflect increased labor force participation or other underlying factors in the labor market.
What is the significance of OpenAI's 'test-time computation' technology?
OpenAI's 'test-time computation' technology allows models to perform deeper reasoning and solve more complex problems during the inference phase. This breakthrough, exemplified by the O1 model, enables autonomous learning, task decomposition, and error correction, showcasing unprecedented intelligence. It addresses the limitations of scaling pre-training and accelerates the development of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI).
How did the U.S. Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates evolve in December?
The probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December exceeded 90%, driven by concerns over rising unemployment and weak survey data. However, some Fed officials, like Governor Bowman, expressed caution, emphasizing ongoing inflation risks. Citi Bank revised its rate cut expectations to 25 basis points, down from an earlier forecast of 50 basis points.
What were the top-performing and worst-performing ETF sectors in the U.S. stock market this week?
The top-performing ETFs this week were the Internet Index ETF, up 5.54%, and the Consumer Discretionary ETF, up 4.72%. The worst-performing sectors were the Energy ETF, down 4.72%, and the Financials ETF, which fell 1.83%, ending a four-week winning streak.
- 左兜进右兜公众号运营一周年生日
- 12月10日星期二公众号一周年生日
- 本周市场热点：AI应用端持续发酵上涨
- OpenAI 的 12 Days of AI 直播活动
- AI在科研领域的应用：提高效率，一人完成多人任务
- AI在陶哲轩的新测试集上表现像弱智，可能存在数据泄露
Shownotes Transcript
我们每周六也会在公众号《左兜进右兜》做美股技术周复盘，由于图片较多播客每周日我们只做美股宏观周复盘节目，喜欢技术分析的朋友可以去公众号查阅。
保持耐心，不要干预交易：美股技术周复盘20241207)
美股各行业表现情况
本周，网络股指数ETF累计上涨5.54%，可选消费ETF涨4.72%，全球航空业ETF涨3.95%，全球科技股指数ETF涨3.28%，科技行业ETF涨3.04%，半导体ETF涨2.68%，生物科技指数ETF跌0.18%，银行业ETF1.71%，区域银行ETF跌1.73%，金融业ETF跌1.83%结束四连涨，能源业ETF跌4.72%。
CRM的业绩快报和openAI的发布会
CRM业绩为代表
CRM在季报披露之后，上涨了10%左右。在应用端的Beat Market是在增强市场的预期的。
Salesforce（NYSE:CRM）FY25Q3：整体较乐观，超100万美元AI交易增长3倍！
#整体业绩，公司FY25Q3营收94.4亿美元（yoy+8%；预期93.47亿）；实现订阅收入88.8亿美元（yoy+9%）；GAAP营业利润率20%（预期为19%）；GAAP净利润15.27亿美元（yoy+7.95%；预期14.15亿）；调整后EPS为2.41美元（预期2.45美元），整体超预期，EPS低预期由于战略投资亏损所致。
#销售和服务拉动增长。销售业务Q3收入21.19亿美元（yoy+11%），服务业务Q3收入22.88亿美元（+10%），由ARPU增长推动。平台业务Q3收入18.25亿美元（yoy+8%），营销业务Q3收入13.34亿美元（yoy+8%），集成分析业务Q3收入13.13亿美元（yoy+5%）。
#现金流和CRPO良好。Q3经营性现金流19.8亿美元，yoy+29%，自由现金流17.8亿美元，+30%。截至Q3末RPO达531亿美元，yoy+10%，当前RPO 264亿美元，yoy+10%，新订单表现强劲。
#重申FY25全年指引，Q4指引略低预期。全年收入指引378-380亿美元，GAAP营业利润率19.8%，经营现金流24%-26%。FY24Q4收入指引为99-101亿美元，符合101美元预期，EPS指引为2.57-2.62美元，略低于预期2.65美元。
#AI交易增长迅速，Agentforce2.0即将发布。Q3价值超100万美元的AI交易同比增长3倍，签署2000+AI订单。Agentforce 10月24日上线，Q3已交付200笔订单（主要来自服务云），客户包括FedEx、埃森哲、Ace Hardware、IBM、RBC等，超过80000个系统集成商已完成Agentforce培训，数百家ISP技术合作伙伴正在构建和销售Agnetforce。预计2024年12月17日发布Agentforce2.0。
本期内容：
主播
左兜儿
幕后制作
右兜
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