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cover of episode 核能源最终规则落地:美股宏观周复盘20250105

核能源最终规则落地:美股宏观周复盘20250105

2025/1/5
logo of podcast 左兜进右兜

左兜进右兜

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左兜儿
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左兜儿:本周美国12月ISM制造业指数好于预期,显示制造业正在企稳回升,但仍有连续九个月萎缩的迹象。新订单指数创下2024年1月以来新高,表明市场需求有所回暖。就业指数连续第七次低于50,显示制造业劳动力市场走弱。物价支付指数上升,表明通胀压力依然存在。 微软宣布将在2025财年投资800亿美元用于AI数据中心建设,采购大量英伟达芯片,以应对人工智能工作负载的增长。这一投资规模巨大,显示出微软对人工智能领域的重视,并可能带动相关产业链的发展。 特斯拉2024年全年汽车交付量低于预期,为上市以来首次年度销量下滑,但储能业务增长强劲。第四季度交付量虽然创下新高,但仍低于预期,引发市场对特斯拉未来增长目标的质疑。 核能相关股票周五大幅上涨,主要由于财政部宣布清洁轻生产水收抵免最终规则落地,以及Oklahoma公司与Switch签署的部署小型模块化反应堆的协议。这表明核能在清洁能源转型中的作用日益重要,并可能吸引更多投资。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

What were the key highlights of the US ISM Manufacturing Index for December 2024?

The US ISM Manufacturing Index for December 2024 was 49.3, better than the expected 48.2 and up from November's 48.4. The New Orders Index hit 52.5, the highest since January 2024, while the Employment Index dropped to 45.3 from 48.1. The Prices Paid Index rose to 52.5, indicating accelerating price increases. Overall, the report was considered relatively robust.

How did major tech stocks perform in the week ending January 5, 2025?

NVIDIA rose 5.72%, marking its third consecutive weekly gain. Meta increased by 0.8%, continuing its rebound for the second week. Amazon saw a slight rise of 0.20%, while Google fell 0.5%. Microsoft dropped 1.67%, its third consecutive weekly decline, and Apple fell 4.79%, ending a six-week winning streak. Tesla also declined by 4.92%.

What is Microsoft's investment plan for AI data centers in 2025?

Microsoft announced an $80 billion investment in AI data centers for its 2025 fiscal year, with over half allocated to the US. This investment aims to expand computing capacity to handle AI workloads, driven by partnerships with companies like OpenAI and Anthropic. The company has significantly increased its orders for NVIDIA AI chips, tripling its 2023 purchases.

Why did Tesla's 2024 annual vehicle deliveries fall short of expectations?

Tesla delivered approximately 1.79 million vehicles in 2024, below the expected 1.8 million and marking its first annual decline since 2011. The fourth quarter saw 496,000 deliveries, a record high but still below the expected 512,000. Weak production and potential slowdowns in Model Y and Cybertruck production contributed to the shortfall.

What drove the surge in nuclear energy-related stocks on Friday?

Nuclear energy stocks surged due to the US Treasury's final rules on clean hydrogen production tax credits. Companies like Oklahoma, which signed a major agreement to deploy small modular reactors, saw significant gains. Analyst upgrades and growing demand for stable, low-carbon energy from data centers and AI industries also fueled the rally.

What are the implications of Tesla's energy storage business in Q4 2024?

Tesla's energy storage business installed 11 GW of products in Q4 2024, a 245% year-over-year increase and 60% quarter-over-quarter growth. This performance exceeded expectations and highlighted the company's growing focus on energy solutions, even as its vehicle deliveries fell short.

Chapters
本周公布的美国12月ISM制造业指数为49.3,好于预期,但仍低于50,表明制造业活动仍在萎缩。然而,新订单指数和物价支付指数均有所上升,显示出积极的信号。
  • 12月ISM制造业指数为49.3,好于预期48.2
  • 新订单指数创2024年1月以来新高
  • 就业指数连续第七次低于50
  • 物价支付指数加速上涨

Shownotes Transcript

我们每周六也会在公众号《左兜进右兜》做美股技术周复盘,由于图片较多播客每周日我们只做美股宏观周复盘节目,喜欢技术分析的朋友可以去公众号查阅。

  • 本周,能源业ETF涨3.44%连续第二周反弹,半导体ETF涨1.4%,区域银行ETF跌0.03%,银行业ETF跌0.13%,全球科技股指数ETF跌0.51%,科技行业ETF跌0.73%,网络股指数ETF跌0.74%,可选消费ETF跌1.68%。
  • 本周,英伟达累计上涨5.72%连涨三周,Meta涨0.8%连续第二周反弹,亚马逊涨0.20%,谷歌A跌0.5%,微软跌1.67%连跌三周,苹果跌4.79%,结束之前连涨六周的趋势,特斯拉跌4.92%。
  • 比特币期货上逼10万美元,加密货币概念股周五普涨,“比特币持仓大户”MicroStrategy收涨13.22%,杠杆ETF MSTX收涨25.84%、MSTU涨25.31%。

【重点事件】

美国宏观数据

美国12月ISM制造业指数49.3,好于预期的48.2,11月为48.4。新订单指数52.5,创2024年1月以来的新高,11月为50.4。就业指数45.3,前值48.1。物价支付指数52.5,11月为50.3。分析称,这是一份相对稳健的制造业报告。

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左兜儿

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