cover of episode U.S., China, and Economic Warfare: A Conversation with Mr. Edward Fishman

U.S., China, and Economic Warfare: A Conversation with Mr. Edward Fishman

2025/2/27
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Bonnie Lin: 本期节目探讨美国对华及其他行为者的经济战,包括美国拥有的经济战工具、历史运用方式以及中国的回应。 Edward Fishman: 我认为我们正处于经济战时代,制裁、关税和出口管制已成为大国竞争的主要方式。本书旨在填补经济战史的空白,并阐明经济战并非难以理解。现代经济战与以往不同之处在于,它不再依赖海军力量,而是利用高度全球化的经济体系中的“瓶颈点”,例如美元在全球贸易中的主导地位。美国最有效的经济武器是“封锁制裁”,它切断了外国公司与美元的联系。美国商务部拥有出口管制等工具,可以对目标公司施加影响。 特朗普政府对华经济战的主要行动包括对华为的制裁和出口管制,目标之一是阻止华为在5G领域的崛起。美国政府通过“外国直接产品规则”(FDPR)有效地切断了华为与美国技术的联系。美国可以利用更强硬的措施进一步孤立中国的科技产业,但代价是可能加剧与世界其他国家的隔阂。 中国对美国经济战采取双轨策略:一是模仿美国的做法建立自己的经济武器库;二是构建防御体系以减少自身脆弱性。美国实施经济制裁和出口管制需要企业配合,而企业配合的意愿和程度取决于多种因素。 拜登政府对俄经济战策略与特朗普政府对华策略不同,更侧重于威慑而非消耗。拜登政府最初试图通过经济制裁威慑普京入侵乌克兰,但未能成功。拜登政府对俄实施了多方面的经济制裁,但对俄石油出口的制裁力度不足。经济战更易于作为消耗战而非威慑手段使用。要威慑中国在台湾问题上的冒险行为,军事威慑比经济制裁更重要。美中经济相互依赖可能反而会增强中国在台湾问题上的冒险行为。美国应该专注于经济战的防御方面,加强与盟友的合作,并发展国内产业。 特朗普政府对华经济策略缺乏清晰的方向,可能会在强硬和温和之间摇摆不定。特朗普政府可能过度关注对盟友的制裁,而忽视了对华的合作。美国仍然拥有强大的经济杠杆,可以对中国施加影响。中国已经加强了自身经济防御能力,但仍然容易受到美国经济制裁的影响。中国将通过关税、出口管制、制裁和监管调查等方式进行反击。

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In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Mr. Edward Fishman joins us to discuss the evolving landscape of economic warfare and the United States’ strategic use of economic tools against China and other global actors. Drawing from his new book, Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare, he explains how sanctions, tariffs, and export controls have become central to great power competition and explores how today’s hyper-globalized economy has created chokepoints—critical areas where one state holds a dominant position, allowing for few alternatives. He examines the most potent weapons in the U.S. economic arsenal, and how their use—or mere threat—can compel adversaries to shift behavior. Mr. Fishman provides an insider’s account of the Trump administration’s economic warfare strategy against China and the rationale behind its approach. He also analyzes China’s dual-track approach to economic warfare, the Biden administration’s use of economic warfare against Russia, and the role of U.S. firms in carrying out Washington’s policies. He concludes with recommendations for how the U.S. can refine its strategy to more effectively compete with China.

Edward Fishman is a leading authority on economic statecraft and sanctions. He teaches at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs and is a senior research scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy. He also advises companies on geopolitical strategy and invests in early-stage technology startups. Previously, he served at the U.S. State Department as a member of the Secretary of State’s Policy Planning Staff, at the Pentagon as an advisor to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and at the U.S. Treasury Department as special assistant to the Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence. His writing and analysis are regularly featured by outlets such as* The New York Times*, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, Foreign Affairs, Politico, and NPR. He holds a BA in History from Yale, an MPhil in International Relations from Cambridge, and an MBA from Stanford.