Shownotes Transcript
Yesterday I covered Dwarkesh Patel's excellent podcast coverage of AI 2027 with Daniel Kokotajlo and Scott Alexander. Today covers the reactions of others.
** Kevin Roose in The New York Times**
Kevin Roose covered Scenario 2027 in The New York Times. Kevin Roose: I wrote about the newest AGI manifesto in town, a wild future scenario put together by ex-OpenAI researcher @DKokotajlo and co.
I have doubts about specifics, but it's worth considering how radically different things would look if even some of this happened.
Daniel Kokotajlo: AI companies claim they’ll have superintelligence soon. Most journalists understandably dismiss it as hype. But it's not just hype; plenty of non-CoI’d people make similar predictions, and the more you read about the trendlines the more plausible it looks. Thank you & the NYT!
The final conclusion is supportive of this kind of work, and Kevin points out that expectations at the major [...]
Outline:
(00:21) Kevin Roose in The New York Times
(02:56) Eli Lifland Offers Takeaways
(04:23) Scott Alexander Offers Takeaways
(05:34) Others Takes on Scenario 2027
(05:39) Having a Concrete Scenario is Helpful
(08:37) Writing It Down Is Valuable Even If It Is Wrong
(10:00) Saffron Huang Worries About Self-Fulfilling Prophecy
(18:18) Phillip Tetlock Calibrates His Skepticism
(21:38) Jan Kulveit Wants to Bet
(23:08) Matthew Barnett Debates How To Evaluate the Results
(24:38) Teortaxes for China and Open Models and My Response
(31:53) Others Wonder About PRC Passivity
(33:40) Timothy Lee Remains Skeptical
(35:16) David Shapiro for the Accelerationists and Scott's Response
(45:29) LessWrong Weighs In
(46:59) Other Reactions
(50:05) Next Steps
(52:34) The Lighter Side
First published: April 8th, 2025
Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gyT8sYdXch5RWdpjx/ai-2027-responses)
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