“Estimating the benefits of a new flu drug (BXM)” by DirectedEvolution
LessWrong (30+ Karma)
Shownotes Transcript
** Introduction** H5N1 is a looming threat, making regular headlines. The CDC has identified 66 U.S. human cases as of January 4, 2024. Scott Alexander has a recent post outlining the situation. There are several FDA-approved prescription antiviral flu drugs. The newest, using a novel mechanism of action called "cap-snatching," is baloxavir marboxil (BXM, brand name Xofluza). It is on-patent and substantially more expensive than oseltamivir (OST, brand name Tamiflu, now available as a generic). I built a Guesstimate model to model the impact of using Xofluza at various stages of illness. A few facts about it:.
It is primarily based on data from the largest-to-date published clinical trials for BXM, as well as CDC flu modeling and some other flu-related academic literature. In Guesstimate, users can simulate different flu and patient characteristics, substituting their assumptions for mine. It models two flu types: normal-risk and higher-risk. Normal-risk flu is [...]
Outline:
(00:05) Introduction
(02:09) Quantified example
(03:41) My opinion
(05:39) Navigating the model
(07:20) Funding and disclosures
The original text contained 1 footnote which was omitted from this narration.
The original text contained 5 images which were described by AI.
First published: January 6th, 2025
Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/son5eEGymm4h856J9/estimating-the-benefits-of-a-new-flu-drug-bxm)
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