My thoughts on the recently posted story.
** Caveats**
- I think it's great that the AI Futures Project wrote up a detailed scenario.
- I enjoy it.
- Every part of the story i didn't comment on here is either fine or excellent.
- This is one of the most realistic scenarios i've read.
- All detailed predictions contain errors.
- The authors of this scenario don't claim it's the most likely future.
- If the speed of 2018-2025 was the typical rate of progress in software, then AI 2027 would be realistic.
** Core Disagreements**
- Early 2026: OpenBrain is making algorithmic progress 50% faster.
- As with many parts of this scenario, i think this is plausible but too fast. 150% productivity is a lot in business terms, & the scenario doesn't provide much detail for why this is 150% as opposed to 110%. In my software development experience, organizations are bottlenecked by their [...]
Outline:
(00:14) Caveats
(00:52) Core Disagreements
(05:33) Minor Details
(12:04) Overall
First published:
April 5th, 2025
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6Aq2FBZreyjBp6FDt/most-questionable-details-in-ai-2027)
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO).
