“Reactions to METR task length paper are insane” by Cole Wyeth
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Epistemic status: Briefer and more to the point than my model of what is going on with LLMs, but also lower effort.

Here is the paper. The main reaction I am talking about is AI 2027, but also basically every lesswrong take on AI 2027.

A lot of people believe in very short AI timelines, say <2030. They want to justify this with some type of outside view, straight-lines-on-graphs argument, which is pretty much all we've got because nobody has a good inside view on deep learning (change my mind).

The outside view, insofar is that is a well-defined thing, does not justify very short timelines.

If AGI were arriving in 2030, the outside view says interest rates would be very high (I'm not particularly knowledgeable about this and might have the details wrong but see the analysis here, I believe the situation is still [...]

First published: April 10th, 2025

Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BrHv7wc6hiJEgJzHW/reactions-to-metr-task-length-paper-are-insane)

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