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Two years ago, I noted that we had clearly entered the era of general intelligence, but that it was "too soon" to expect widespread social impacts. In the last 2 years, AI has gone from the green line to the orange lineIn those 2 years, AI development has followed the best possible of the 3 paths I suggested (foom/GPT-4-takes-my-job/Slow Takeoff). Returns to scale seem to be delivering a steady ~15 IQ points/year and cutting edge models appear to be largely a compute-intensive project that allows (relatively) safety-conscious leading labs to explore the new frontiers while others reap the benefits with ~1 year delay. Possibly the most important graph in the world right nowIf I had to identify 3 areas where GPT-3.5 was lacking, it would have been:
reasoning modeling the real world learning on-the-fly
Of those three, reasoning (o3) is largely solved and we have promising approaches for [...]
First published: December 29th, 2024
Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ocvpbiAJsxkB3Hiaj/what-happens-next)
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