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cover of episode The Economic Outlook for Midsize Businesses Amid Recession Fears

The Economic Outlook for Midsize Businesses Amid Recession Fears

2025/3/23
logo of podcast WSJ's Take On the Week

WSJ's Take On the Week

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Michael Smith
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Miriam Gottfried
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Telis Demos
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Telis Demos: 我认为大家最关心的问题是,我们是否正走向衰退?人们会仔细分析数据,寻找他们能看到的衰退的早期迹象。 此外,我还关注投资银行Jefferies的财报,因为他们的财报可以作为华尔街并购活动的一个早期指标。市场波动会影响华尔街交易员的盈利,因为交易员在市场波动中获利。中型企业是美国经济的重要组成部分,它们雇佣了大量员工,值得关注其在关税和经济不确定性下的表现。 Miriam Gottfried: 关税的威胁可能会体现在经济数据中,消费者可能会因为对价格上涨的担忧而减少支出,从而影响经济。 投资银行关注的是客户的并购前景,以及他们是否在等待政策明朗后再采取行动。 Michael Smith: 关税对全球化企业的影响大于对中型企业的的影响,但所有企业都会受到影响,因为所有产品都有投入品。许多人认为关税是特朗普政府的谈判策略,但实际上它已经产生了严重的影响。 Ares Management 通过多年的经验积累,能够更好地评估各种经济政策对借款人的影响。消费品行业可能受到关税的严重打击,而Ares Management会谨慎对待该行业的投资。利率上升会影响中型企业的财务状况,因为它们通常负债累累。中型企业是否能够将利率上升的成本转嫁给客户取决于其定价能力和行业特点。 目前的数据显示,公司仍在增长,短期内不太可能出现经济衰退。普通投资者可以通过投资商业发展公司(BDC)来获得中型企业的投资机会。中型企业对经济具有重要意义,它们生产许多日常生活中使用的产品和服务。

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Shownotes Transcript

On WSJ’s Take On the Week, co-host Telis Demos and guest co-host Miriam Gottfried dive into a smorgasbord of forthcoming macroeconomic data that will illustrate how the economy is faring since President Trump’s inauguration. Then, Telis shares what investment bank Jeffries’s forthcoming fiscal-quarter report could tell us about the state of mergers and acquisitions on Wall Street. And it’s baseball season, folks! The co-hosts talk about the latest deal between the San Francisco Giants and private-equity firm Sixth Street.

Later on the show, Telis and Miriam discuss whether middle-market businesses, which include a huge swath of the American workforce, are holding strong as the threat of tariffs continues and chatter about economic uncertainty intensifies with Michael Smith. He’s the co-head of credit at Ares Management, an alternative investment manager that lends to more than 500 midmarket companies.

This is WSJ’s Take On the Week where co-hosts Gunjan Banerji, lead writer for Live Markets, and Telis Demos, Heard on the Street’s banking and money columnist, cut through the noise and dive into markets, the economy and finance—the big trades, key players and business news ahead.

Have an idea for a future guest or episode? How can we better help you take on the week? We’d love to hear from you. Email the show at [email protected]).

To watch the video version of this episode, visit our WSJ Podcasts YouTube channel) or the video page of WSJ.com).

Further Reading

To read more from co-host Telis Demos, catch up on Tariffs Are a Risk for Midsize Businesses, and Their Lenders).

To read more from guest co-host Miriam Gottfried, catch up on An Insurer Taps Its Financial-Adviser Network to Sell Private-Market Funds).

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For more coverage of the markets and your investments, head to WSJ.com), WSJ’s) Heard on The Street Column), and WSJ’s Live Markets blog).  

Sign up for the WSJ's free Markets A.M. newsletter).