The three key emotional phases of the 2024 stock market were: 1) **Avoidance**, where investors were cautious and risk-averse, especially in the first half of the year; 2) **Excitement**, triggered by significant policy announcements around September 24th, leading to a surge in market optimism; and 3) **Hesitation and Divergence**, where investors became uncertain and the market entered a period of indecision and varied investment styles.
Gold prices reached record highs in 2024 due to a global trend towards risk aversion and inflation hedging. The economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and the aftermath of excessive monetary policies, particularly in the U.S., drove investors to seek safe-haven assets like gold. Additionally, the rise in gold prices was seen as a response to the need for protection against currency devaluation and inflation.
Bitcoin, often referred to as 'digital gold,' saw significant growth in 2024, driven by its perceived role as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty. Its rise was further fueled by political events, such as the U.S. election, and the increasing acceptance of cryptocurrencies as a store of value. However, Bitcoin remains a volatile asset, and its long-term role as a reserve currency is still debated.
The September 24th policy announcements marked a turning point in 2024, shifting the market from a risk-averse phase to one of heightened optimism. Key financial regulators introduced a series of measures aimed at stimulating the economy, including significant reforms in the real estate sector, such as easing purchase restrictions and lowering mortgage rates. These policies led to a rapid surge in market activity, particularly in real estate and related stocks.
The U.S. election in 2024 had a significant impact on global markets, particularly due to the policies of the elected administration. The new leadership's focus on supporting domestic markets and imposing tariffs on foreign goods created uncertainty in global trade. This led to a cautious and hesitant investment environment, with capital flows being redirected towards U.S. markets, affecting emerging markets like China and Hong Kong.
For navigating the uncertain market of 2024, the podcast recommended a diversified approach, including a mix of individual stocks and ETFs to spread risk. Investors were advised to consider global asset allocation, particularly through ETFs tracking U.S. markets like the Nasdaq or S&P 500, to mitigate volatility. Additionally, strategies like dollar-cost averaging and focusing on sectors with strong fundamentals, such as commodities, were suggested to manage risk and capitalize on potential opportunities.
本期嘉宾
李永浩:播客「三点下班」主理人
星辰:播客「三点下班」主理人
欢迎来到大方谈钱,这是一档由华夏基金出品的播客栏目。钱是桥梁,生活才是目的,我们关注每一个人生活中和钱相关的大事小事。
2024年眼看着就要过去,从年初到现在,市场经历了一轮又一轮的过山车,相信许多投资人朋友无论是心情还是账户余额,都随着市场的起伏,不断经历着反转再反转。
今天这期节目,我们非常荣幸地请到「三点下班」的两位主播浩哥和星辰,希望跟两位老师一起复盘2024年的市场,给2025年的投资做一些启发。
大家在今年的市场行情里,有没有什么印象深刻的故事,欢迎大家在评论区告诉我们!
你可能会用到的投资工具🛠️
红色火箭是一款免费的指数投资工具,大家可以通过这款微信小程序快速查看到各类指数的涨幅、资金流入情况、估值等基础情况,还可以进行同类多种指数的对比、根据热门股票反选相关指数、查看相关指数/板块的热点新闻等。
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小程序不构成对于投资人的任何实质性建议或承诺。市场有风险,投资需谨慎。
Timeline
避险:黄金与比特币屡创新高,债基与红利股轮番共舞
02:30 用三个词概括2024:避险、亢奋、彷徨
05:23 黄金价格屡创新高,或许折射了新的市场情绪
11:25 不要被“消费降级”这种抽象概念占据大脑,现实中还有很多细微的投资机会!
14:18 美国大选之后,比特币会替代黄金成为储备货币吗?
16:39 在债券基金里“收蛋”是什么样的体验?
19:43 红利股与微盘股,分别适合哪一种风格的投资者?
亢奋:超预期政策,超迅猛行情
26:18 924行情:突如其来的亢奋期
30:34 看到一行一局一会同时发力,就知道这次不一般
34:36 ETF的高歌猛进,体现了什么样的市场偏好?
39:04 房地产的大调整:取消限购、降低首付、降低存量房贷利率
43:06 当10年期国债利率接近房屋的租金回报率时,房产或许就能企稳了
44:26 A股的这轮行情,其实也是全球市场大拐点的一环
47:17 牛市走向平静期之后,市场投资风格开始走向多元化
彷徨:美国持续影响全球市场,投资标的越来越多样
49:18 美国大选,对全球市场有什么影响?
53:02 “持续用力,更加给力”
55:16 在不确定的市场里,要给自己铺好安全垫
57:58 配置不同种类的ETF,坐上指数的贝塔
本期制作
嘉宾:李永浩 星辰
主播:章衡 惟惟惟
制作:长波工作室
免责声明
温馨提示:播客大方谈钱由华夏基金出品,所有投资相关内容皆以交流分享为目的,仅供参考,不构成任何市场预测、判断,或投资、咨询建议。本节目不作为个股推荐,不作为任何法律文件,内容中的所有信息或所表达意见不构成投资、法律、会计或税务的最终操作建议,华夏基金不就资料中的内容对最终操作建议做出任何担保。在任何情况下,本公司不对任何人因使用本资料中的任何内容所引致的任何损失负任何责任。我国基金运作时间较短,不能反映股市发展的所有阶段。市场有风险,入市需谨慎。
风险提示:1.以上基金属于股票基金,风险与收益高于混合基金、债券基金与货币市场基金,具体风险评级结果以基金管理人和销售机构提供的评级结果为准。2.以上基金可能出现跟踪误差控制未达约定目标、指数编制机构停止服务、成份券停牌或违约等风险,其联接基金的基金资产主要投资于目标ETF,在多数情况下将维持较高的目标ETF投资比例,基金净值可能会随目标ETF的净值波动而波动,目标ETF的相关风险可能直接或间接成为联接基金的风险。3.投资者在投资以上基金之前,请仔细阅读基金的《基金合同》、《招募说明书》和《产品资料概要》等基金法律文件,充分认识基金的风险收益特征和产品特性,并根据自身的投资目的、投资期限、投资经验、资产状况等因素充分考虑自身的风险承受能力,在了解产品情况及销售适当性意见的基础上,理性判断并谨慎做出投资决策,独立承担投资风险。4.基金管理人不保证以上基金一定盈利,也不保证最低收益。以上基金的过往业绩及其净值高低并不预示其未来业绩表现,基金管理人管理的其他基金的业绩并不构成对本基金业绩表现的保证。5.基金管理人提醒投资者基金投资的“买者自负”原则,在投资者做出投资决策后,基金运营状况、基金份额上市交易价格波动与基金净值变化引致的投资风险,由投资者自行负责。6.中国证监会对以上基金的注册,并不表明其对基金的投资价值、市场前景和收益作出实质性判断或保证,也不表明投资于以上基金没有风险。7. 以上产品由华夏基金发行与管理,代销机构不承担产品的投资、兑付和风险管理责任。8.本资料中观点仅供参考,不作为任何法律文件,亦不构成任何要约、承诺,材料中的所有信息或所表达意见不构成投资、法律、会计或税务的最终操作建议,管理人不就资料中的内容对最终操作建议做出任何担保。基金有风险,投资须谨慎。