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cover of episode Is there a new Washington consensus?

Is there a new Washington consensus?

2025/2/11
logo of podcast LSE: Public lectures and events

LSE: Public lectures and events
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A
Andrés Velasco
R
Robert Wade
S
Stephanie Rickard
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Stephanie Rickard: 我认为目前华盛顿的经济政策变化巨大，但并不构成新的共识。主要原因在于，各国对美国提出的保护主义和产业政策模式，要么由于自身经济条件的限制无法效仿，要么出于对多边贸易体系的维护和自身发展战略的考量而选择不效仿。这种情况下，全球经济呈现出日益碎片化的趋势，不同国家采取了不同的经济模式和地缘政治策略。未来，我们需要吸取华盛顿共识的经验教训，避免政策的一刀切，并重视政策的公平性和可持续性。 Andrés Velasco: 我认为谈论美国的‘新共识’是误导性的。美国的政策制定过程缺乏理性论证和民主辩论，政策目标也未能实现。拜登政府的巨额财政支出并未赢得预期的政治支持，甚至在一定程度上加剧了社会矛盾。即使在民主党内部，关于经济政策的共识也正在瓦解。在全球范围内，新兴市场国家普遍支持贸易自由化，这与发达国家的情况形成鲜明对比。因此，所谓的‘新共识’并不存在。 Robert Wade: 特朗普政府对国际金融机构（IMF和世界银行）的态度，与其说是要彻底改革，不如说是为了满足其自身政治和经济利益。其政策目标并非为了提升美国在全球经济中的地位，而是为了削弱多边机构的影响力，并为其国内政策服务。虽然特朗普政府曾威胁要退出IMF和世界银行，但这些机构的持续存在对于全球经济稳定至关重要，因此美国不太可能完全退出。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter analyzes the evolution of US economic policy, questioning whether a new Washington Consensus exists. It examines the shift away from free trade and towards government intervention, highlighting the lack of international consensus on this new approach. The discussion emphasizes the fragmentation of global economic models and competing geopolitical influences.
  • Shift away from free trade and towards government intervention in US economic policy
  • Lack of international consensus on the new approach
  • Fragmentation of global economic models and competing geopolitical influences (US, China, EU)

Shownotes Transcript

Contributor(s): Professor Stephanie J. Rickard, Professor Andrés Velasco, Professor Robert Wade | For roughly a quarter century after the Cold War, the Washington consensus or neoliberalism guided US foreign economic policymaking. Today, that market-oriented consensus is in tatters, as Republicans and Democrats alike have shifted toward government intervention, including industrial policy, and away from free trade.